COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption Kathy E. Gill 27 January 2009

Theories (recap) (1/2) Scientific Humanistic Why: Discover the “truth” Create meaning Values: Objectivity “ Emancipation” Purpose: Determine universal laws Provide rules for interpretation

Theories (recap) (2/2) Scientific Humanistic Research Methods: Quantitative: experiment, survey Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis Judged by: Explains data Predicts future Testable hypothesis Practicality Explains human behavior Clarifies values Consensus Ability to reform society

Explains data

Predicts future

Testable hypothesis

Practicality

Explains human behavior

Clarifies values

Consensus

Ability to reform society

Two Theories of Mediated Communication Shannon-Weaver “ Transmission model” or “ hypodermic model Osgood & Schramm “ Circular model” that stresses the social nature of communication

Shannon-Weaver

“ Transmission model” or “ hypodermic model

Osgood & Schramm

“ Circular model” that stresses the social nature of communication

Thinking About Rogers and Christensen …

Linear innovation-diffusion theory The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system . Rogers, 1995, page 5

The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system .

Rogers, 1995, page 5

Elements Innovation Social system Time Communications channels

Innovation

Social system

Time

Communications channels

Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

Communication A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

Time Source

Source

Infographic credited to NYT

Social System A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal.

Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

Innovation-Decision Process The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

Rogers: Five steps of adoption Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation

Knowledge

Persuasion

Decision (adopt or reject)

Implementation

Confirmation

Critical Mass Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

Innovators

Early adopters

Early majority

Late majority

Laggards

Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010 Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, Access July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”

The Five-Year Forecast: Personal Devices July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”

More than 55% of households will have a DVR by 2011? Source: Forrester’s North American Consumer Technology Adoption Study 2006 Benchmark Survey

Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. Software - the knowledge base for the tool

Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object.

Software - the knowledge base for the tool

For additional thought … Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today? Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? …. ? v Google? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, cellphone contracts … what do they have in common?

Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today?

Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? …. ? v Google?

What is today’s “railroad” sector?

Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, cellphone contracts … what do they have in common?

Thinking About Rogers and Christensen … we’ll talk about disruptive technologies

Credits Presentation by Kathy E. Gill, [email_address] , @kegill CC share-and-share alike, non-commercial use “ S-curve” from http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cm05/overview05/keycomms/

Presentation by Kathy E. Gill, [email_address] , @kegill CC share-and-share alike, non-commercial use

“ S-curve” from http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cm05/overview05/keycomms/