This document summarizes key concepts from diffusion of innovations theory, including Rogers' linear innovation-diffusion model and its core elements of innovation, communication channels, time, and social systems. It also discusses Rogers' innovation-decision process and adopter categories, and provides examples of technology adoption forecasts and disruptive innovations.

1. COM546 : Frameworks and Theories: Diffusion and Adoption Kathy E. Gill 27 January 2009

2. Theories (recap) (1/2) Scientific Humanistic Why: Discover the “truth” Create meaning Values: Objectivity “ Emancipation” Purpose: Determine universal laws Provide rules for interpretation

3. Theories (recap) (2/2) Scientific Humanistic Research Methods: Quantitative: experiment, survey Qualitative: ethnography, textual analysis Judged by: Explains data Predicts future Testable hypothesis Practicality Explains human behavior Clarifies values Consensus Ability to reform society

4. Two Theories of Mediated Communication Shannon-Weaver “ Transmission model” or “ hypodermic model Osgood & Schramm “ Circular model” that stresses the social nature of communication

5. Thinking About Rogers and Christensen …

6. Linear innovation-diffusion theory The process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system . Rogers, 1995, page 5

7. Elements Innovation Social system Time Communications channels

8. Innovation An idea, practice, or object that is perceived as new by an individual or other unit of adoption

9. Communication A process in which participants create and share information with one another in order to reach mutual understanding

10. Time Source

11. Infographic credited to NYT

12. Social System A set of interrelated units that are engaged in joint problem-solving to accomplish a common goal. Members or units of a social system may be individuals, informal groups, organizations, and/or subsystems.

13. Innovation-Decision Process The mental process through which an individual passes : from knowledge to forming an attitude toward the innovation (adopt, reject)

14. Rogers: Five steps of adoption Knowledge Persuasion Decision (adopt or reject) Implementation Confirmation

15. Critical Mass Rogers (1995) : "the critical mass occurs at the point at which enough individuals have adopted an innovation so that the innovation's further rate of adoption becomes self-sustaining.”

16. Adopter categories Innovators Early adopters Early majority Late majority Laggards

17. Forecast: US Household Technology Adoption, 2005-2010 Forrester Reports. July 2005, Data Overview “The State Of Consumers And Technology: Benchmark 2005”

18. The Five-Year Forecast: Household Devices, Access July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”

19. The Five-Year Forecast: Personal Devices July 2008 “Benchmark 2008: Forecast Growth Of Devices And Access In The US”

20. More than 55% of households will have a DVR by 2011? Source: Forrester’s North American Consumer Technology Adoption Study 2006 Benchmark Survey

21. Technological Innovations Hardware - the tool that embodies the technology as a material or physical object. Software - the knowledge base for the tool

22. For additional thought … Increasing capacity w/out adding wires (telegraph). Parallels today? Grey v Bell …. Jobs v Gates? …. ? v Google? What is today’s “railroad” sector? Price models: Bell’s renting the phone, IBM’s renting the mainframe, cellphone contracts … what do they have in common?

23. Thinking About Rogers and Christensen … we’ll talk about disruptive technologies

24. Credits Presentation by Kathy E. Gill, [email_address] , @kegill CC share-and-share alike, non-commercial use “ S-curve” from http://www.ofcom.org.uk/research/cm/cm05/overview05/keycomms/