The US lags behind Europe, Asia, and Australia in adoption of Mobile applications and so usage here is of less impact. Ofcon (UK’s Office of Communications,) issued a report in 2007 analyzing usage over a four year period.
As handhelds take on different styles (iPhone and iTouch) and as competition increases (provided the FCC takes an aggressive stance on opening bandwidth usage and allowing for an increase in operators in the handheld radio spectrum) we should see a rapid increase in usage of handhelds.
Program & service offerings will rise, adoption will follow. And prices may come down as units proliferate.
The Blackberry, The Treo and certain Palm products opened up portable e-mail and net connectivity. The significant change in the game came with the iPhone.
But in much the same way that Apple has less than a 10% share of the PC market – and that share is jam packed with tech savvy types and graphics pros - the iPhone user base is also different from their predecessor hand-held brethren. This is a case of legacy versus new paradigm.
It might be wise at this point to note that each investment house and forecasting or research firm has a slightly different estimate. And they all seem to be increasing their forecast on the growth of net use. Here’s how Oppenheimer saw the market in their Trends in Digital Media Report, released in early 2007, based on analysis of available 2006 and prior data.
This offers a far less rosy projection of internet usage although the 10% annual Compound Average Growth Rate far surpasses all others. Notice, also, that mobile data is nowhere to be found on the chart. These are US-only forecasts, and mobile, as of January 2007, wasn’t deemed worthy of consideration, much less measurement or projection.
In the Three Screen World, effective delivery and impact of getting the message across (and this is not just advertising) goes from the old paradigm of impression count to a blend of impressions and impact. Measurement methodology evolves.
Delivery System Ubiquity and the variety of Media (the different screens) offer new opportunities.