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Changing patterns of agricultural growth & investment in Africa
- 1. Agricultural growth in AfricaRecent record … & history Jim Sumberg, Steve Wiggins & SharadaKeats
- 2. Background: story so far (v brief!) 130 years History … optimism & pessimism Performance since 1990: what do we know?
- 3. HISTORYFLUCTUATING PERCEPTIONS OF AFRICAN AGRICULTURE
- 4. Optimism: Africa as opportunity
- 5. Africa’s dreadful 1970s 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 Gross Prodn Food Per Cap Index 1961/63 = 100, 3 year moving av. Africa South America Asia
- 7. Explaining failure of 70s & 80s •Geography •Institutions Exceptionalism External: debt and dependency •Negative protection, urban bias •Marketing boards, excessive state Poor policy
- 8. 'Only to feed her growing population at the present level of per capita food consumption, Africa would thus need to increase her food production at a rate of, say, 3.2 per cent per year for several decades in succession. This is of course an impossiblechallenge for her to meet.' Hostage to fortune, 1990: Africa’s ‘impossible challenge’
- 9. BUT TIMES CHANGE … … OPTIMISM RETURNS
- 10. 60 85 110 135 160 2000 Jan 2001 Jan 2002 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Jan 2013 Jan 2014 Jan Index deflated by US GDP deflator Commodity Food and Beverage Price Index, 2005 = 100, includes Food and Beverage Price Indices Commodity Agricultural Raw Materials Index, 2005 = 100, includes Timber, Cotton, Wool, Rubber, andHides Price Indices
- 11. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 Imports, M tonnes Asia’s Imports Fixed Vegetable Oils Oilseeds
- 12. Abundant land!
- 13. Africa, SS, economic growth 1996 to 2008 79 to 95: 0% per cap growth 96 to 08: 3.2% per cap.
- 14. -0.50 -0.40 -0.30 -0.20 -0.10 0.00 0.10 Average NRA for 1970/85 compared to 2000s 1970 to 85 200 to 2010
- 15. Agriculture back on agenda Maputo Declaration 2003 CAADP ex 2003 AGRA Regional Economic Integration
- 16. RECENT PERFORMANCE(A) REGIONAL & COUNTRY STATS
- 17. -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 AFRICA EAST MIDDLE NORTH SOUTH WEST Average Annual Growth Rate, % Africa, Growth Agricultural Production, 1990/11 Ag PIN Ag PIN per cap
- 18. -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Benin Burkina Côte d’Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Malawi Moz Nigeria Senegal Tanz AFRICA Av. Ann. Growth Rate 90/92 to 09/11 Ag PIN Ag PIN per cap
- 19. - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 - 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 Africa Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western Increase, % Av Value Prodn Cultivated Land, US$/ha, constant 04/06 value 1990/92 2009/11 Increase, %
- 20. 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1,000 Benin Burkina Faso Côte d'Ivoire Ethiopia Ghana Malawi Mozambique Nigeria Senegal Tanzania Increase, % Average Value Production Cultivated Land, US$ constant 04/06, per ha 1990/92 2009/11 Increase
- 21. - 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 - 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 Africa Eastern Middle Northern Southern Western Increase seen 1990/92 to 2009/11, % Value per EAP Ag, Int$ cont 04/06 Growth of agricultural labour productivity, Africa, 1990/92 to 2009/11 1990/92 2009/11 Change
- 22. - 20 40 60 80 100 120 - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Increase 90/92 to 09/11, % Value, per EAP Ag, Int$ constant 04/06 1990/92 2009/11 Increase, per cent
- 23. MICRO STUDIES: ANY LESSONS? [FAC COMMERCIALISATION]
- 24. 1. Production, Incomes can rise 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 Tef Wheat Chickpeas Lentils Onion Tomato Greenpepper Lume, Gross Margin, US$/ha
- 25. 2. No need for dramatic change Domestic markets Gradual change •Cautious commercialisation Surprisingly active labour & land markets Lack of credit hinders, does not stop
- 26. 3. Not exceptional Peri-urban now the norm
- 27. BUT WHERE ARE THE LONG STUDIES? But where are the longstudies?
- 28. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 Farm -> farm Farm -> middle Farm -> city Middle - > farm Middle - >… Middle - > city Total Millions Kagera, Tanzania: Consumption, Ann, Adult Equiv, Tshs 1991/94 2010
- 29. Concluding Half empty: room for improvement Half full: things are improving Country variations: learn from Africa [Learn right lessons from Asia]