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Rice Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (2008-2018)

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Presented at the High-Level Ministerial (HLM) Conference on Rice Development in Sub-Saharan Africa 25 September 2018
Dakar, Senegal

Presented by Dr Harold Roy-Macauley
Director General, Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice)

Published in: Science
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Rice Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (2008-2018)

  1. 1. Rice Trends in Sub-Saharan Africa (2008-2018) Compiled by AfricaRice Presented by Dr Harold Roy-Macauley Director General, Africa Rice Center (AfricaRice) High Level Ministerial Conference Dakar, Senegal, 25 September 2018
  2. 2. Outline 1. Introduction 2. Production, area and yield trends 3. Milled rice production and consumption 4. Achievement of self-sufficiency objectives 5. Looking forward 6. Conclusion
  3. 3. Introduction  Global food crisis in 2007-2008 • Soaring food prices & riots in sub-Saharan Africa(SSA) in 2008 • Increased awareness for the production of more and better food  Rice is a staple food for about half of the world’s population and provides 20% of the calories  Rice is consumed by more than 750 million people in SSA  An important dietary energy source and employment opportunities  Presentation shows rice trends over the last decade in SSA & progress made in achieving self-sufficiency objectives
  4. 4. Rice world market • Rice world market is volatile • Rice exports in the world totaled US$ 20.7 billion in 2017 down by an average of 19% from 2013 when it was US$ 25.7 billion • India is top exporter (31% of the export in 2017-2018) • Droughts of 2014-15 put a crunch on the Indian rice market • Climatic conditions in particular are affecting the rice production in the major producing regions of India and may affect world market rice in the future • China first world producer imported rice for US$ 1.5 billion in 2015 3200 3200 4300 7000 11000 13000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Burma United States Pakistan Vietnam Thailand India Main rice exporting countries in the world in 2018 (1000 tons) SSA should not continue to rely on rice importation
  5. 5. Rice imports in SSA countries • Continues to increase • Increased by 45% from 7.3 Mt to 16 Mt • Estimated import bill for 2018: US$ 6.4 billion 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 Rice importation in SSA countries Rice import in SSA countries
  6. 6. Rice area • Increased by 40% from 8.5 M ha to 11.9 M ha • 2008-2012: rate of increase at 24% • 2012-2016: rate of increase at 16% • 2016-2018: remained constant 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Area Harvested SSA countries (1000 ha)
  7. 7. Rice area per region West Africa: Growth rate of 52%, from 5.3 M ha to 8 M ha Central/Southern: Growth rate of 35%, from 0.8 M ha to 1.1 M ha East Africa: Growth rate of 22%, from 2.4 M ha to 2.9 M ha 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 Rice area harvested per region x 1000 ha Central &South Africa East Africa West Africa
  8. 8. Rice yield 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa countries (t/ha) • Increased by 7% from 2.05 t/ha to 2.2 t/ha • Two phased yield trend 1. 2008-2012 (after food crisis): yield increased by 15% from 2.05 t/ha to 2.37 t/ha 2. 2012-2018: yield decreased by 7% from 2.37 t/ha to 2.22 t/ha Decrease in yield after the food crisis attributed to policy measures (government support) that did not sustain yield growth
  9. 9. Rice yield per region • East Africa: highest yield of 2.63 to 2.81 t/ha • Central and Southern Africa: lowest yield of 1 to 1.5 t/ha • West Africa: highest yield rate increase of 9.5% from 2.42 to 2.65 t/ha • Central/Southern Africa at 9.1% from 1.10 to 1.20 t/ha • East Africa by 6.8% from 2.63 to 2.81 t/ha 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 Rice yield in Sub-Saharan Africa Central &South Africa East Africa West Africa
  10. 10. Rice yield in the world and in SSA Between 2012-2018 • Increase in yield globally by 2% • Decrease in yield in SSA by 7% In 2008 • Difference in global and SSA yields was 2.18 t/ha with global yield at 4.23 t/ha and SSA yield at 2.05 t/ha In 2018 • Difference in global and SSA yields increased to 2.29 t/ha with global yield at 4.51 t/ha and SSA yield at 2.22 t/ha High yield difference exists between world and SSA yields 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 4.50 5.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Yield in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and World Yield in World Yield in Asia Yield in SSA
  11. 11. Paddy production • Production increased by 55%: from 17.03 Mt in 2008 to 26.31 Mt in 2018 • Increase in production mainly due to rice area expansion • Between 2009 & 2012: steeper slope in production increase noted: corresponded to increased rice yield observed between 2008 & 2012 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 Paddy rice production in Sub-Saharan Africa Rough Production in SSA countries
  12. 12. Paddy production per region • West Africa: fastest growth at 73% from 10,424 t to 18,027 t • Central & Southern Africa: 47%, from 760 t to 1,120 t • East Africa: 32% from 5,717 t to 7,531 t Note : Similar trend observed in rice area expansion 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000 Paddy rice production in ton Central &South Africa East Africa West Africa
  13. 13. Paddy production in the world 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000 Paddy rice production in Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia and World Paddy production in World Paddy production inAsia Paddy production in SSA • 2008 – 2018 SSA: Production increased by 55% from 17.03 Mt to 26.31 Mt • 2008 - 2018 World: production increased by 8% from 602.7 Mt to 650.9 Mt • 2018 - Asia accounts for 89% of total paddy rice production in the World (650.9 Mt in Asia against 727.9 Mt in the world)
  14. 14. Milled rice production vs consumption in SSA • Consumption increased faster than production • Consumption increased by 81% while production increased by 55% • Gap between consumption and production has increased 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 Milled rice production and consumption in SSA countries Milled Production in SSA Consumption in SSA (1000 MT)
  15. 15. Rice self-sufficiency in SSA Rice self-sufficiency decreased from 61% to 52% in SSA countries between 2008 and 2018 61 56 61 55 57 54 56 57 55 52 52 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 Self-sufficiency ratio of Sub-Saharan Africa countries
  16. 16. Meeting Self-sufficiency per country • Between 2008 to 2018 no SSA country has achieved the self-sufficiency objective • Three countries (Tanzania, Madagascar and Mali) have more than 85% of self- sufficiency 7 10 17 18 22 22 24 25 30 33 34 39 44 48 50 50 51 55 61 65 67 86 86 92 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Angola Kenya Gambia The Niger Benin Togo Mozambique Cameroon Burkina Liberia Senegal Guinea Bisseau Ghana Cote d'Ivoire Rwanda Mauritania Congo (RDC) Nigeria Sierra Leone Uganda Guinea Mali Madagascar Tanzania Achievment against Self-sufficiency objective % of achievement Number of countries Less than 25 7 25-50 7 50-75 7 75-100 3
  17. 17. Rice imports in SSA Nigeria • Increased rice imports by 71% • Import share of total rice imports decreased from 24% in 2008 to 18% in 2018 Senegal • Increased rice imports by 83% • Import share of total rice imports decreased from 9% in 2008 to 7% in 2018 Cote d’Ivoire • Increased rice imports by 100% • Import share of total rice imports decreased from 11% in 2008 to 10% in 2018 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Rice importation-biggest importers (Nigeria, Cote d'Ivoire and Senegal) Rice import in SSA countries Nigeria Senegal Cote d'Ivoire
  18. 18. Projection toward 2025 • Based on the annual average growth rate of production over the last decade at 4.6%, milled rice production is projected at 23.19 Mt in 2025 • Based on the annual growth rate of consumption over the last decade of 6.2%, consumption is projected at 49.25 Mt in 2025 • To realize rice self-sufficiency up to 2025 in SSA countries, production must increase by an annual growth rate of 16.5% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 Scenarii of rice production and consumption in SSA countries (2008 to 2025) Investment Plan: Milled Production (1000 MT) Domestic Consumption (1000 MT) Business as usual: Milled Production (1000 MT)
  19. 19. Impact of rice research in SSA • AfricaRice and its partners have developed a number of technological and institutional innovations in rice value chain • Improved rice varieties have lifted 8 million people out of poverty and provided food security to 7.2 million in SSA over the period 2000-2014 • Adoption of improved rice varieties has increased rice yield by at least 320 kg/ha • Adoption is however low due to mainly awareness and availability
  20. 20. Going forward Rice sector development objectives in SSA • Major objectives going forward:  Increase rice production  Accelerate self-sufficiency in rice  Increase investments • Modeling investment requirements: Continental Investment Plan for accelerating Rice Self-Sufficiency in Africa (CIPRiSSA) • Pilot test in 10 countries in SSA (Senegal, Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Cameroon, Uganda, Tanzania, Madagascar)
  21. 21. Annual additional investments for 10 pilot countries (US$ million) Total investment needed over 8 years: USD 2754 million 210 214 219 224 229 234 239 244 108 111 114 116 119 122 125 128 318 325 332 340 348 355 364 372 - 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Total non-irrigation Investment (US$ million) Total new irrigation invesment (US$ million) Total investment (US$million) Costs(MillionofUS$) Costs(MillionofUS$)
  22. 22. Expected gains from additional investments Additional milled rice Foreign exchange savings 4.3 3.3 4.1 11.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 Expected additional production from rainfed upland (million t) Expected additional production from irigated (million t) Expected additional production from rainfed lowland (milliont) Expected additional production from the 3 ecologies (million t) 334 2,675 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 Annual Foreign exchange savings (US$ million) Total Foreign exchange savings (US$ million)
  23. 23. Going forward Additional policy measures • Reduction of rice importation: needs to be sustained especially in major rice consumption countries ( Nigeria, Senegal, Cote d’Ivoire) • Focusing investment in the following areas of the value chain: development and use of improved technologies such as quality seeds, fertilizer, small scale mechanization, and value addition • Efficient organization of the rice value chains: develop and introduce best-fit contract farming; link producers to industries, markets, banks, insurance; use information technologies
  24. 24. Conclusion 1. Between 2008 to 2018 no SSA country has achieved rice self- sufficiency objective 2. Three countries are very close to the target : Tanzania, Madagascar & Mali 3. Increase in production and consumption but gap continues to increase 4. Trends in yield showed that policy measures were not sustained 5. Climate effect on production in big exporting countries may negatively affect the importation of rice in SSA 6. To realize rice self-sufficiency by 2025, domestic production must increase at a rate of 16.5% per annum 7. This requires increased investments and strong policy measures
  25. 25. Thank you

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