"Implementation Performance and Progress toward Core CAADP Targets" presented by Sam Benin, Research Fellow, Development Strategy and Governance Division, IFPRI, at 2014 ReSAKSS Annual Conference, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, October 9, 2014

1. Implementation Performance
and Progress toward Core
CAADP Targets
Samuel Benin, IFPRI

2. Background and Motivation
• In 2003, Africa adopted CAADP; agriculture-led
integrated framework for development
• Set targets for spending, productivity, growth, trade,
outcomes (poverty, food and nutrition security, etc.)
• Developed processes for mutual engagement and evidence-
based review and learning
www.resakss.org
• ReSAKSS tracks progress of
30 indicators through an
interactive website and
flagship Annual Trends and
Outlook Report (ATOR)

3. Objectives and outline of presentation
• Review progress in implementing the CAADP
agenda. Particularly, achieving key CAADP goals and
targets:
• 10% agriculture expenditure
• 6% agricultural sector growth
• Halving poverty and hunger
• Correlations among observed trends to assess
simple associations between spending and growth
and outcomes
• Lessons for future work relating to implementation
of the Malabo Declaration

4. Format of results and notes (I)
• Aggregate statistics: Africa as a whole; 5 geographic regions
(Central, East, North, Southern, West); and 4 economic
regions (income, agricultural potential, natural resources):
• Middle Income (MI) = 26 countries: Algeria, Angola, Botswana,
Cameroon, Cape Verde, Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt,
Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Lesotho, Libya, Mauritius,
Morocco, Namibia, Nigeria, Sao Tome and Principe, Senegal,
Seychelles, South Africa, South Sudan, Sudan, Swaziland, Tunisia.
• Low Income, less favorable agriculture (LI-3) = 9 countries:
Burundi, Chad, Comoros, Eritrea, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Rwanda,
Somalia.
• Low income, more favorable agriculture (LI-2) = 13 countries:
Benin, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Gambia, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya,
Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, Togo, Uganda,
Zimbabwe.
• Low Income, mineral rich (LI-1) = 6 countries: Central African
Republic, D.R. Congo, Guinea, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Zambia.

5. Format of results and notes (II)
• Other aggregates not presented: Regional Economic
Communities (RECs), top 10 largest agriculture economies
(based on share in Africa’s agGDP), fastest-growing
agriculture economies (i.e. greater than 6%)
• Trends for three sub-periods: 1995-2003 (baseline), 2003-
08 (initial CAADP timeline), 2008-2013
• Monetary values in constant 2005 US$
• Data updates: retroactive, new data for recent years, data
for more countries (e.g. 50 countries with agriculture
expenditure data)
• Data sources: WDI, FAOStat, IMF, national sources (statistics
bureaus, ministries of finance and agriculture), studies

6. Enabling environment
Inflation
Government debt and revenue

7. Inflation, GDP deflator (%)
34
55
13
8
67
20
35
133
9 710 9 10 10 9 10 10 15
8 811 7 14
8 8
19 11 13 11
6
0
50
100
150
Africa
Central
East
North
Southern
West
MI
L3
L2
L1
Africa Region Economic
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
Inflation reduced substantially from pre-CAADP levels 
better control of money supply; stronger purchasing power;
better long-term planning

8. General government gross revenue and
debt (% of GDP)
28 31 31 12 20 22 18 20 21 19 26 25
78 44 36
154 132
54 93 58 40
96 61 38
0
50
100
150
200
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
MI L3 L2 L1
Revenue Debt
26 30 30
81 47 37
0
50
100
150
200
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
Africa
• Revenue-ratio increased slightly; but debt-ratio reduced a lot
• Due to combination of debt forgiveness, more grants, greater
own revenue sources (increased export earnings, royalties, ...)

9. Government agriculture
expenditure

10. Government agriculture expenditure (GAE)
growth rate (annual average %)
6
14
9 6
18
12
9
34
6 28
14 9 4
13 13
6
29
11 5
-1
22
-4
7 1
-1
1
14
3
-5-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Africa
Central
East
North
Southern
West
MI
L3
L2
L1
Africa Region Economic
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2013
• Growth in GAE slowed down or declined in 2008-03; except in
central Africa where it increased
• Reflects effect of the financial and high-prices crises in 2008-09

11. Government agriculture expenditure (GAE,
annual average % of total expenditure)
3 2
6 4 2
5 3 4
7
10
4 3
6
4 2
5
3 4
7
11
3 5 5 3 2 5 3 5 7 8
0
5
10
15
Africa
Central
East
North
Southern
West
MI
L3
L2
L1
Africa Region Economic
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2013 10% target
• Share of GAE stagnated or declined slightly in 2008-03; except
in central Africa and L3 economic group
• Reflects slowdown in growth in total expenditure

12. 1 4 6
1
7
5 4 4 4 1 5 6 6 3 1 4 5 3
15
3 4 3 1
11
7
2
8
5 6
3
7 6 7
2
12
3 4 2
6
18
5
9 9
0
21
8
4 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
GNQ
GNB
MAR
EGY
ZAF
SSD
LSO
SWZ
CAF
CPV
MUS
DJI
BWA
COD
NAM
SYC
GHA
NGA
KEN
CIV
SDN
UGA
MOZ
DZA
AGO
STP
MRT
BDI
TUN
TZA
ERI
CMR
GMB
TCD
BEN
SLE
GIN
RWA
TGO
LBR
SEN
NER
ZMB
MLI
ETH
COG
BFA
MDG
ZWE
MWI
1995-2003
1 1 2 4 2 1 3 4 2
3
3 2 4 1 5 4 2 5 4 3
6
3
6
4 2 5
6
4
7 6 5
4
7
6 6
2
9
4
5
2
7
18
9
12
14
2
10
6
18
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
GNQ
GNB
MAR
EGY
ZAF
SSD
LSO
SWZ
CAF
CPV
MUS
DJI
BWA
COD
NAM
SYC
GHA
NGA
KEN
CIV
SDN
UGA
MOZ
DZA
AGO
STP
MRT
BDI
TUN
TZA
ERI
CMR
GMB
TCD
BEN
SLE
GIN
RWA
TGO
LBR
SEN
NER
ZMB
MLI
ETH
COG
BFA
MDG
ZWE
MWI
2003-2008
1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10
15 16
18
0
5
10
15
20
25
GNQ
GNB
MAR
EGY
ZAF
SSD
LSO
SWZ
CAF
CPV
MUS
DJI
BWA
COD
NAM
SYC
GHA
NGA
KEN
CIV
SDN
UGA
MOZ
DZA
AGO
STP
MRT
BDI
TUN
TZA
ERI
CMR
GMB
TCD
BEN
SLE
GIN
RWA
TGO
LBR
SEN
NER
ZMB
MLI
ETH
COG
BFA
MDG
ZWE
MWI
2008-2013 Burkina Faso, Congo R., Ethiopia,
Madagascar, Malawi, Zimbabwe
Burkina Faso, Guinea, Niger, Sao
Tome and Principe, Sudan
Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Malawi,
Mali, Niger, Zimbabwe
≥ 10%
≥ 10%
≥ 10%

13. Agricultural growth

14. Agriculture value added (growth rate, %)
7
2
4
6 4
8 7
2 4 45
2
3
5 4
6
5
3
4
3
6
3
6 5 6 5 6 5 4 4
0
5
10
Africa
Central
East
North
Southern
West
MI
L3
L2
L1
Africa Region Economic
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2013 6% target
• Faster growth in 2008-13 compared to 2003-08 in many sub-
regions and compared to 1995-03 in central, east, and L3;
• Slower growth in west Africa;
• In Africa and other sub-regions, faster growth in 2008-13
represent catch-up with pre-CAADP levels.

15. 3 2 7 4
6
1 1 3 4 7 5 3
-1
2
-2
1 3 1 7 1 5 4 3 6
0
11
7 4
-4
9
4
12
2 4 6 4 1 6 2 1 6 6
10
3
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
TGO
SYC
GMB
ZAF
TUN
LSO
GAB
SWZ
UGA
MWI
BEN
KEN
BWA
GNB
COD
MUS
EGY
SEN
CPV
ERI
GHA
GIN
TZA
COG
NER
SLE
BDI
TCD
NGA
BFA
COM
MRT
RWA
MLI
MAR
ETH
NAM
MOZ
CAF
ZMB
LBR
MDG
ZWE
SDN
DZA
AGO
GNQ
1995-2003
5 2 3 3 3 1 2 1 1
2
4 2 5 3 3 0 3 4 7 7 3 3 5 5
8
-3 -2
7 5 0 5 4 5 2
12
-4
8
4 2 5 3
-13
1 3
14
5
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
TGO
SYC
GMB
ZAF
TUN
LSO
GAB
SWZ
UGA
MWI
BEN
KEN
BWA
GNB
COD
MUS
EGY
SEN
CPV
ERI
GHA
GIN
TZA
COG
NER
SLE
BDI
TCD
NGA
BFA
COM
MRT
RWA
MLI
MAR
ETH
NAM
MOZ
CAF
ZMB
LBR
MDG
ZWE
SDN
DZA
AGO
GNQ
2003-2008
-7 -6 0
0 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 12
17
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
TGO
SYC
GMB
ZAF
TUN
LSO
GAB
SWZ
UGA
MWI
BEN
KEN
BWA
GNB
COD
MUS
EGY
SEN
CPV
ERI
GHA
GIN
TZA
COG
NER
SLE
BDI
TCD
NGA
BFA
COM
MRT
RWA
MLI
MAR
ETH
NAM
MOZ
CAF
ZMB
LBR
MDG
ZWE
SDN
DZA
AGO
GNQ
2008-2013
High variability over time ● Many different countries surpassed
6% target in different sub-periods ● 16 countries in 2008-13 ●
Angola, Ethiopia and Mozambique in 2003-08 and 2008-13
(Agriculture value added growth, %)

16. Outcomes
Poverty
Food and nutrition security
Hunger

17. 43 28 2643 26 2431 24 23
0
35
70
Poverty (% of
population)
Malnutrition
(% of children
under 5)
Global
Hunger Index
Central
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
44 23 2142 21 19
40 20 17
0
35
70
Poverty (% of
population)
Malnutrition
(% of children
under 5)
Global
Hunger Index
Africa
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
• Poverty,
malnutrition and
hunger has
declined at
aggregate levels
everywhere;
• Declined by 2%
points per year on
average in post-
CAADP sub-
periods compared
to pre-CAADP

18. 5
8
63 7
4
3 5
40
35
70
Poverty (% of
population)
Malnutrition
(% of children
under 5)
Global
Hunger Index
North
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
48
17 19
43
14 17
39
13 15
0
35
70
Poverty (% of
population)
Malnutrition
(% of children
under 5)
Global
Hunger Index
Southern
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012 • Differences across
sub-regions:
• Lowest levels in all
three indicators in
north Africa;
• Moderate levels
of poverty in
central and
southern Africa;
• Moderate levels
of malnutrition
and hunger in
southern Africa

19. 58
28 21
55
26 18
54
24 160
35
70
Poverty (% of
population)
Malnutrition
(% of children
under 5)
Global
Hunger Index
West
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
57
30 28
52
28 2548
27 24
0
35
70
Poverty (% of
population)
Malnutrition
(% of children
under 5)
Global
Hunger Index
East
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
• Highest levels of
poverty in east
and west Africa;
• Highest levels of
malnutrition in
central, east, and
west Africa;
• Highest levels of
hunger in central
and east Africa

20. Correlations
Though do not imply cause-effect
relationships (which require more detail
data and advanced quantitative methods),
strong correlation coefficient hints plausible
association

21. Government agriculture expenditure (GAE) and
agricultural GDP growth (I)
y = 0.0234x + 3.5394
R² = 0.027
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
-20 0 20 40 60 80
AgGDPgrowthrate(%)
GAE growth rate (%)
1995-2012  Weak positive
correlation
between GAE
growth and
AgGDP growth
 Different results
for different sub-
regions, sub-
periods, and types
of GAE (other
studies)

22. Government agriculture expenditure (GAE) and
agricultural GDP growth (II)
1995-2003
y = 0.0247x + 3.618
R² = 0.0326
-5
0
5
10
15
-50 0 50 100
AgGDPgrowthrate
(%)
GAE growth rate (%)
y = 0.04x + 3.4048
R² = 0.0515
-5
0
5
10
15
-20 30 80
AgGDPgrowthrate
(%)
GAE growth rate (%)
2003-2012
 Larger (but still weak) positive correlation between
GAE growth and AgGDP growth in post-CAADP sub-
period compared to pre-CAADP

23. Agricultural GDP growth and malnutrition (I)
y = -0.3764x - 0.6482
R² = 0.0819-15
-10
-5
0
5
0 5 10 15
Childmalnutrition
(%change)
AgGDP growth rate (%)
1995-2012  Weak positive
correlation between
AgGDP growth and
malnutrition
reduction
 Different results for
different sub-
regions, sub-periods,
and drivers of
AgGDP growth
(other studies)

24. Agricultural GDP growth and malnutrition (II)
1995-2003
y = -0.1613x - 0.8385
R² = 0.0411-10
-5
0
5
-5 0 5 10 15
Childmalnutrition
(%change)
AgGDP growth rate (%)
y = -0.3554x - 1.2802
R² = 0.055-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-5 0 5 10 15
Childmalnutrition
(%change)
AgGDP growth rate (%)
2003-2012
 Larger (but still weak) positive correlation between
AgGDP growth and malnutrition reduction in post-
CAADP sub-period compared to pre-CAADP

25. Conclusions and implications
Key findings
Future work vis-à-vis Malabo Declaration

26. Conclusions and implications (I)
• Significant progress in several indicators associated
with CAADP
• High inter-temporal variability in key indicators (e.g.
government agriculture expenditure) reflects
challenges in sustaining commitment  Malabo
Declaration is timely
• Malabo Declaration:
• Has many result areas with specific and more ambitious
targets  more indicators needs to be tracked
• Elaborates desired contribution of agriculture to overall
results  more disaggregated indicators are needed

27. Conclusions and implications (II)
• Malabo Declaration:
• Asks for implementation strategy and roadmap
 more deeper analyses are required (e.g.
efficiency and effectiveness of different types of
policies and public spending)
• Commitment to systematic regular review
process  effective (institutionalized) M&E
systems and mutual accountability platforms

29. IDEAL DISAGGREGATED EXPENDITURE DATA
Functions (COFOG)
701. Gen. Pub. Services
702. Defense
703. Pub. Order & Safety
704. Economic Affairs
705. Environ Protection
706. Housing &
Community Amenities
707. Health
708. Rec., Culture, & Rel.
709. Education
710. Social Protection
Economic classification
21. Compensation of
employees
22. Use of goods and
services
23. Consumption of
fixed capital
24. Interest
25. Subsidies
26. Grants
27. Social benefits
28. Other
Agricultural
sub-sector
Crops
Livestock
Forestry
Fishery
Agricultural
sub-functions
Extension
Research
Irrigation
Land management
Market infrastructure
Farm support
Policy, planning, M&E
Regulation, licensing
Statistics
…
Level
Central
State/Region
Local/District
…
Policy objective
Food security
Productivity/Growth
…
Target
Demography
Geography
…
Planning/Execution
Budget
Expenditure
Source of financing
Domestic (loan, tax)
External (loan, grant)

30. Thanks

31. CAADP Implementation
process
Compacts
Country and other supporting initiatives

32. CAADP processes and supporting initiatives
0
18
36
54
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
1 13 22 29 30 37 40
Number of countries with CAADP Compacts
• Other country: NAIPs (xx by end of 2013); Country
SAKSS (12 by end of 2014); CANs (14); JSRs (7)
• Supporting initiatives: GAFSP (15 approved $563
million); Grow Africa (7); New Alliance (10)

33. 6 2
3
11 11
3
6 2 4 76 2 6 10
18
3
7 3 6 96 4 5 9
21
2
6
5
6 6
0
5
10
15
20
25
Africa
Central
East
North
Southern
West
MI
L3
L2
L1
Africa Region Economic
1995-2003 2003-2008 2008-2012
Government agriculture expenditure (annual
average % of agriculture value added)

34. Land and labor productivity
618 742 832
574 712 824
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
1995-03 2003-08 2008-12
Africa
Labor (2005 US$/worker) Land (2005 US$/ha)

35. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
MI L3 L2 L1
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
1995-03
2003-08
2008-12
Central East North Southern West
Labor (2005 US$/worker) Land (2005 US$/ha)