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2019/2020 season final figures and the regional market situation

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2019/2020 season final figures and the regional market situation, presentation by Sy Martial Traoré, CILSS, RPCA restricted meeting, 2 April 2020.

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2019/2020 season final figures and the regional market situation

  1. 1. RPCA, April 2020 RESTRICTED MEETING 2019/2020 season final figures and the regional market situation by Sy Martial, TRAORE, CILSS
  2. 2. Plan • Background • 2019/2020 final cereal production figures • Reviewed cereal food balance for 2019/2020 • 2019/2020 roots and tubers final production figures • 2019/2020 leguminous final production figures • Pastoral situation • Regional nutrition situation • Regional markets situation • Focus on impact of Covid-19 • Recommendations
  3. 3. Background • The final production figures for 13 countries out of 17 countries have been transmitted • For Cabo Verde, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal, the provisional figures have been used for this presentation • Summary of fish production • The PREGEC did not take place; • Forage balance sheet improvement : Burkina, Mauritania, Niger, Chad, Senegal
  4. 4. 2019/2020 Final cereal production figures 74.17 million mT, increased by 0.4% vs last year and 12.8% vs average 5years 49.0 58.0 46.2 56.1 46.6 56.355.3 61.2 64.4 67.368.6 73.9 74.2 40.0 45.0 50.0 55.0 60.0 65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 Prodx1,000,000mT Regional cereal production trend 2007-2019 (millionT) Countries Changes vs Provisionnal Togo -0,6% Tchad -1,4% Gambie -2,5% Mali -3,9% Niger -6,5% Côte d'Ivoire -9,4% Sierra Leone -20,5% Burkina Faso 3,0% Bénin 0,6% Ghana 8,7% TOTAL -1,2%
  5. 5. 2019/2020 Final cereal production figures Situation per cereal Crops 2019/2020 Var18/19 VarMoy5A Proportions 2019/2020 Proportions Avg 5yrs Maize 26 775 216 4,2% 21,3% 36% 34% Rice 21 362 971 0,2% 11,2% 29% 29% Sorghum 14 836 230 -2,0% 7,5% 20% 21% Millet 10 416 935 -5,4% 5,1% 14% 15% Fonio/Acha 709 774 6,9% 9,2% 1% 1% Wheat- Barley 75 003 -14,3% -35,0% 0% 0% Total 74 176 130 0,4% 12,8% 100% 100%
  6. 6. 2019/2020 final cereal production figures Countries 2019/2020 Production Var18/19 Var 5 yrs Avg Burkina Faso 5 180 702 0% 15% Cap Vert 640 -11% -80% Gambie 84 267 -15% -47% Guinée Bissau 239 576 7% 16% Mali 10 451 273 3% 21% Mauritanie 471 943 15% 32% Niger 5 298 164 -13% -6% Sénégal 2 768 405 -4% 27% Tchad 2 925 293 -3% 6% SAHEL 27 420 263 -2,3% 12,2% Production per Countries and zones
  7. 7. 2019/2020 final Cereal production figures Countries 2019/2020 Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A Bénin 2 177 787 3% 16% Côte d'Ivoire 3 145 864 -2% -3% Guinée 4 273 268 6% 16% Ghana 4 555 080 30% 52% Liberia 276 421 7% 1% Nigeria 29 880 775 0% 12% Sierra Leone 1 075 311 -29% -15% Togo 1 372 361 2% 11% Pays Côtiers 46 756 867 2% 13% Production per countries and zones
  8. 8. 2018/2019 final Cereal production figures Production per countries and zones ZONES Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A UEMOA 30 634 132 -1,9% 11,4% ECOWAS 70 779 894 0,4% 13,0% CILSS 38 389 543 -1,0% 11,3% Eastern Basin 40 282 019 -2,0% 8,9% Central Basin 24 705 280 5,6% 19,8% Western Basin 9 189 831 -2,4% 13,1%
  9. 9. 2019/2020 Final cereal production figures Cereal production per head Countries 2019/2020 (kg/head/year) Var 2018/2019 (%) Var 5 ys Average (%) Burkina Faso 242 4% -4% Cap Vert 1 -89% -88% Gambie 38 -58% -65% Guinée Bissau 119 -1% -4% Mali 509 11% 41% Mauritanie 113 60% -42% Niger 230 -16% 9% Sénégal 171 15% 42% Tchad 180 -8% -10% SAHEL 242 0% 5%
  10. 10. 2019/2020 Final cereal production figures Cereal production per head Countries 2019/2020 Kg/capita Var 2018/2019 (%) Var Average 5yrs(%) Bénin 178 10% 13% Côte d'Ivoire 119 -5% -5% Guinée 340 1% 13% Ghana 154 47% 47% Liberia 64 -1% -46% Nigeria 141 -7% 28% Sierra Léone 134 0% -25% Togo 182 3% -2% Pays Côtiers 149 -1% 5% Ensemble Zone 177 -1% 0%
  11. 11. Regional Cereal balance Sheet (2019/2020) Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total 419 535 689 Population au 01/04/2020 1. Disponibilités/Availability 14 815 172 403 048 48 294 244 63 512 464 Production brute 2019/2020 21 362 971 73 393 52 740 768 74 177 133 Production disponible 13 762 586 65 611 43 860 990 57 689 187 Sstocks initiaux (opening stock) 1 384 198 337 437 4 438 173 6 159 808 -Socks paysans 174 609 194 322 2 545 345 2 914 276 -Autres stocks 1 068 542 143 115 1 654 934 2 866 591 2. Besoins/ Need 17 868 208 8 294 192 46 004 082 72 166 483 Consommation humaine (Human need) 17 242 333 8 103 343 44 871 427 70 217 103 Stocks finaux (closing stock) 625 875 190 849 1 132 655 1 949 379 -Socks paysans 157 685 76 646 711 676 946 007 -Autres stocks 567 090 114 203 420 979 1 102 272 3. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) brut -3 053 036 -7 891 144 2 290 162 - 8 654 018 4. Solde import/export 9 947 661 8 770 119 945 249 19 663 029 Importations commerciales (2019/2020) 9 924 676 8 719 779 1 298 625 19 943 080 + Commerçants privés 9 477 655 8 316 025 889 823 18 683 503 + Autres importations 473 701 944 951 407 168 1 825 820 Aides alimentaires 31 108 3 714 2 175 36 997 Exportations prévues 34 803 494 571 353 917 883 290 5. Excédent(+)/Déficit(-) net 6 894 625 878 975 3 235 411 11 009 011 6. Disponibilité apparente/HBT(kg) 59 22 117 198
  12. 12. Regional Cereal balance Sheet Entities Rice Wheat Millet, sorghum, maize, fonio Total Zone UEMOA 4411514 -13289 6386987 10785213 Zone ECOWAS 6742098 711910 3265525 10719533 CILSS 5061356 310129 6350958 11722443 Bassin est 3007983 295254 -2976984 326254 Bassin centre 3069428 665901 6537641 10272970 Bassin ouest 817213 -82180 -325246 409787 Countries situations Regional entities Gross Deficit Cap vert Gambie Guinée-Bissau Mauritanie Niger Sénégal Nigeria Libéria Nigeria Sierra Leone Sahelian Countries Costal Countries Postes Riz/Rice Blé/Wheat (Mil, sorgho, maïs, fonio), others cereals Total Burkina Faso -16599 2533 1197032 1182965 Cap Vert 5831 -1136 -30875 -26180 Gambie 5528 -280 -143252 -138004 Guinée Bissau -71172 1426 -29895 -99641 Mali 638390 62780 3747460 4448630 Mauritanie 85401 189336 -53537 221200 Niger 151983 -104906 543997 591074 Sénégal 240683 -372728 166749 34704 Tchad 67126 -22271 23423 68278 SAHEL 1107171 -245246 5421101 6283026 Bénin 1467351 23995 168231 1659577 Côte d'Ivoire 1801974 280388 538781 2621144 Guinée 485956 157769 168212 811937 Ghana 446760 226976 999735 1673471 Liberia -40452 -57438 -21748 -119638 Nigeria 1321523 398436 -3712635 -1992675 Sierra Leone 105438 871 -380900 -274590 Togo 198904 93223 54633 346760 Pays Côtiers 5787454 1124221 -2185690 4725985 TOTAL 6894625 878975 3235411 11009011
  13. 13. Roots and Tubers production final figure (2019/2020) Crops Production Million mT Var. 2018/2019 (%) Var. Average 5yrs (%) Cassava 98 770 774 0,0% 15,0% Yam 73 559 711 1,5% 13,6% Sweet potato 6 421 169 4,3% 21,9% Irish potato 1 917 591 5,4% 23,9% Coco yam 9 805 575 1,0% 69,0% Total 190 474 820 0,8% 16,7% 190 474 820 T; 0.8% VS 2018/2019 and 16.7% vs Moy5ans -0.3% VS Provisonnal (Mali -44%, TD -5%; SL-78% ; GH+8%)
  14. 14. Roots and Tubers production final figure (2019/2020) SCrops ECOWAS CILSS UEMOA Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A Production Var18/19 VarMoy5 A Production Var18/19 VarMoy5 A Cassava 98 473 798 3% 19%15 467 854 3% 19%13 010 260 3% 19% Yam 73 559 711 6% 7%12 013 955 6% 7%11 790 079 6% 7% S potato 6 203 845 -16% 11%1 159 616 -16% 11%652 664 -16% 11% I potato 1 917 591 5% 168%667 591 12% 168%467 015 12% 168% Coco yam 9 780 439 -2% -14%249 700 -2% -14%112 632 -2% -14% Total 189 935 384 3% 19%29 558 716 4% 14%26 032 650 4% 14% Production per zone (Tonnes)
  15. 15. Leguminous and oil seeds final production figure (2019/2020) Spéculations Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A Groudnut 10 168 435 -1,00% 20,90% Cotton 2 886 012 9,13% 15,12% Cowpea 8 264 563 0,95% 14,10% Sesame 1 171 834 7,26% -0,85% Sojabean 1 481 444 1,02% 5,16% Wandzou/BambaraNut 217 726 8,80% 41,09%
  16. 16. Cash products final production figure (2019/2020) Spéculations Production Var18/19 VarMoy5A Cacao* 3127920 1% -5% Coffee* 235954 -10% -8% Rubber* 793000 22% 61% Cajau Nut* 691201 -15% -1% Plantain* 7333440 10% 25% *Only for some countries,
  17. 17. Fisher productions Fish production (tonnes) Countries 2018 2019 Variations Gambie 54 434 51 710 -5% Mali 103 140 116 347 13% Bénin 28 984 38 233 32% Ghana 452 679 475 424 5% Togo 24 910 22 590 -9% TOTAL 663 835 703 984 6% Marine, Inland fish catch and aquaculture
  18. 18. Pastoral situation Pastoral condition: Production :Good compared to last year 80% of pasture zones productivity are good in Sahelian zone High mortality of livestock last year Transhumance : Early than usual (Mr, SN, ML, NE) and more difficult Accessibility of pasture zone are very difficult : Liptako Gourma, Niger and Mali border; Lac Chad zones Bilans pastoraux : Niger, Mali, Burkina Faso, Sénégal
  19. 19. Nutritional situation In the Sahel (9), 2.5 million children U5 are expected to severely acutely malnourished, of which 30% are in the 3 countries of the Central-Sahel. In recent years, and despite massive investments, no significant improvement has been observed in the prevalence of wasting in the Sahel. Serious levels of GAM (≥10%) and SAM (≥2%) persist at national level in several countries (Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal and Chad), while large disparities exist at sub-national level. In the Central-Sahel especially, the already precarious nutritional situation of U5 children and mothers, could deteriorate further in 2020 due to the complex context of generalized civil insecurity, massive displacement of population, limited access to basic social services and reduction of humanitarian space. The recent COVID-19 outbreak poses major threats on nutritional status of children and mothers in the West and Central Africa region. The region faces multiple underlying vulnerabilities, including food insecurity, undernutrition, and disease burden such as malaria coupled by high levels of poverty which places the population at higher risk of infection. At this stage, there are still many unknowns, however, the humanitarian community is fully committed to limit spreading out of the disease, to anticipate as much as possible the primary and secondary impacts on nutritional status of populations, and to adapt programs/operation in accordance with national directives.
  20. 20. Regional markets situations Context Good cereal production compare to last year and average; Except in 6: SL, GM, SN, CV, NE Persistence of inflation in many countries in the region (SL, LI, NG, GH, GN, GB);; Persistence of civil insecurity in several parts of the regional: • In the Lake Chad area • In the north of Mali • In the Liptako Gourma area • Niger and Mali borders Market supply Overall level of cereal supplies is improving because of good harvest and imported products available in the market; Market stock levels are good because of carry over stock; Market demand The demand is stable at regional level: but more high in western basin (local cereal) compare to eastern and central basins when it is low compare to supply. Now Covid-19
  21. 21. -1-.50.51 Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice Regional markets situations Cereal price 0:4% 1:6% -4:1% 7:12% 5-10% Overall increase in cereal prices (3.3 – 7.8%), all the crop are concerned Commodities Maize Millet Sorghum Local Rice Imported Rice Nov 19 -9.2 : -5.8% -10.2 : -5.2% -10.4 : -4,2% 7.6 : 13.5% 8.5 - 14.1% Mar 19 -1:3% -1:4% -7: 2% 3-7% 2-5% Jun 19 -0.8 : 3.9% -0.8 : 4.4% -2.5 :3.5% 4.3 : 9.8% 5.3 : 10% Nb markets MA: 291 MI: 279 SB: 279 RID: 202 RIO: 293 Total:332
  22. 22. Regional markets situations Composite prices of cereals Average per country Cereals prices changes vs 5 years averages Countries 5 years Changes Cap Vert -3,1% Gambie 10,3% GUINEE 2,9% GUINEE BISSAU -7,4% LIBERIA 64,3% MAURITANIE 7,1% SENEGAL 12,1% SIERRA LEONE 39,4% Western basin BURKINA FASO -12,3% COTE D'IVOIRE 2,3% GHANA 9,7% MALI -7,5% TOGO -0,7% Central basin NIGER 3,6% BENIN 0,2% NIGERIA 25,0% TCHAD -10,0% Esatern basin
  23. 23. Regional markets situations Cereals prices changes vs 5 years averages -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% P.100ofchangecompareto5yearsaverage CHANGES IN CEREAL PRICES IN WEST AFRICA SAHEL VS 5 YEARS AVERAGE AND AGREATED (FOOD STANTARDS AND POPULATION) West Sah Western basin Eastern basin Central basin
  24. 24. -2% 9% 12% 115% 59% 25.8% 14% 26% 18% 12% 20% 3% 2% 18.4% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% BENIN COTE D'IVOIRE GHANA LIBERIA MALI NIGERIA SIERRA LEONE Yam Cassava Plantain Roots, tubers plantain prices variations (vs 5year average) Regional markets situations
  25. 25. Regional markets situations Cash crop products prices variations (vs 5year average) 6% 12% 12% 18% 24% 5% -5% 19% 29% 51% 5% -3% 17% -9% 3% -22% -22% 15% 56% 9% 18% 56% -1% -4% 17% 4% 2% 2% 10% 6% -4% 6% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% BE BF CI GM GH GN GB ML NE NG SE SL G/Nut Cowpea Sesame Soyabean Fonio/Acha Voandzou Onion
  26. 26. Regional markets situations Livestock prices variations : Jan - Feb vs average 5years -1% -5% 25% -11% 12% -1% -12% 25% 6% 34% 2% -3% -11% -8% 26% 6% -2% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% Mali Burkina SL Senegal Tchad Niger Cattle Goat Sheep Camel
  27. 27. The advent of covid-19 Social distancing measures, closures of markets, borders and other measures put in place by States to contain the spread of the disease further disrupt the market situation established for the period from January to February 2020 (market mission) This situation will undoubtedly lead to a slowdown in intra-regional flows and an increase in road harassment through the number of checkpoints and snowshoes of all kinds. Reduction of internal flows from production areas to centers due to psychosis and curfews in progress in several cities and probably imports of rice and other basic products he increasingly difficult access of households to the basic foodstuff on the one hand, because of the foreseeable increase in the prices of basic necessities and on the other hand through the decline in the purchasing power of households. Indeed, the vast majority depend on small informal economic activities which are all stopped Furthermore, it should be recalled that in most countries of the region, part of the households had adapted adaptation strategies based on crisis feeding and strategies based on livelihoods from crisis to emergency.
  28. 28. The advent of covid-19 On the economic level, several of the region already had persistent difficult economic situations (SL, LI) and others were in the process of recovery (GH, NG, GM), this situation will exacerbate the economic difficulties of all the States and health actions will necessarily take on food and preservation of livelihoods aspects Finally, the situation spares no country, internationally, the rise in prices of imported foodstuffs is also predictable: imported rice and manufactured products.. In terms of impact depending on the sensitivity of the countries. 3 groups of countries could be formed: • Countries with high rice consumption and strong dependence on imports: MR, LI, SL, GB, GM, a more difficult situation; • Countries with a large agricultural production capacity and / or a large economic capacity: CI, SN, GH, CV, TG, GN, BE, NE, if they implement a system of correct rediscounts will be better able to come out of it • Countries already weakened by security crises, pastoral for several years will be much more impacted. These are the countries of the Sahel: BF, ML, NE, TD It will all depend on the duration of the situation. Even if the region has large stocks cleared by the cereal balance sheets, this assumes that the six months remaining for imports are not affected. That the situation does not force the wealthiest households to store more..
  29. 29. The other shock elements The locust danger threatening the countries of the region; The 2020/2021 crop year is already under threat. In the southern part of the coastal countries the campaign has already started with regard to the measures in progress, the long season in the bimodal zones could be negatively affected; State investments for the preparation of the agricultural campaign have dropped considerably in certain countries in favor of security aspects (Sahel countries) or because of economic or political problems as is the case in Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea etc..
  30. 30. Recommendations 1. The current information systems must be rapidly strengthened for close and real-time monitoring of the markets 2. • A more in-depth analysis of the agricultural and food situation is needed in Sierra Leone and Liberia 3. • An update as soon as possible of the market missions in the most affected
  31. 31. Many thanks for your attention!

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