POWER RELATIONS, CONFLICT AND COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN Ana Elisa Cascão King’s College of London Presentation to: “ The Curse of Scarcity and Abundance? Water and Oil Wars in the Gulf and Nile Basin ” American University of Cairo 5th April 2008

NILE – HYDROLOGY AND POLITICS NILE RIVER BASIN 1 River 2 sub-Basins 10 riparians Unequal contribution Unequal utilisation Disparity of numbers Main provider Main user

NILE RIVER BASIN

1 River

2 sub-Basins

10 riparians

Unequal contribution

Unequal utilisation

Disparity of numbers

NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY NON-NILE

NILE - WATER RESOURCES AVAILABILITY AND UTILISATION

DEPENDENCY AND CONTROL

INEQUALITIES = CONFLICT? Control Allocation Contribution Utilisation

CONFLICT OF INTERESTS Historical and acquired rights Potential needs and uses “ New water” Storage infrastructures Hydropower Irrigation Extreme dependence Water for development CONFLICT OF LANGUAGES

POWER RELATIONS MATTER! EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIA Geography Geography Geography Material power Material power Material power Bargaining power Bargaining power Bargaining power Ideational power Ideational power Ideational power Two Hydropolitical Dynamics: Hegemony & Counter-Hegemony (Adapted from Zeitoun, 2005)

GEOPOLITICS ARE CHANGING! USA CHINA EUROPE SUDAN ETHIOPIA EGYPT World Bank

COOPERATION = EQUITY? Equitable utilisation Development Benefits Nile Basin Initiative

CURRENT COOPERATION IN THE NILE BASIN NILE BASIN INITIATIVE Since 1999 Multilateral cooperation Goal: Project-by-project “ Benefit-sharing” Godfather: World Bank Economic integration COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT Since 1997 Goal: New Nile Treaty Equitable Utilisation + No harm “ Water-sharing” Constructed Ambiguity Nile Basin Commission = Funding

NILE BASIN INITIATIVE

Since 1999

Multilateral cooperation

Goal: Project-by-project

“ Benefit-sharing”

Godfather: World Bank

Economic integration

COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT

Since 1997

Goal: New Nile Treaty

Equitable Utilisation + No harm

“ Water-sharing”

Constructed Ambiguity

Nile Basin Commission = Funding

CONFLICT PREVENTION* Planned Water Development Generation of Benefits Downstream Alternative Water Resources Regional Virtual Water Control of expansion of commercial agriculture Relinquish Sovereignty Strong Water Institutions Neutral Knowledge Ethics Multi-level Cooperation New Inclusive Agreeement POLITICAL FLEXIBILITY

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