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Nile Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin - Aalto University

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Nile Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin - Aalto University

  1. 1. HYDROPOLITICS IN THE NILE BASIN Ana Elisa Cascão Stockholm International Water Institute Lecture at Aalto University Helsinki - Finland 7 November 2011
  2. 2. The River(s) Contribitution to Nile flows Annual (average) Flood period (average) Eastern Nile Basins (from Ethiopia) Blue Nile 59% 68% Tekezze/ Atbara 14% 5% Baro-Akobo/ Sobat 13% 22% Total Ethiopia 86% 96% Equatorial Nile Basin White Nile 14% 5%
  3. 3. The Hydrology The Topography Blue Nile source White Nile source Ethio-Sudan border Egypt’s territory
  4. 4. The land/waterscapes Egypt
  5. 5. The land/waterscapes North Sudan Southern Sudan
  6. 6. The land/waterscapes Ethiopia
  7. 7. Lake Victoria The land/waterscapes Uganda Kenya Tanzania Rwanda Burundi D.R. Congo
  8. 8. The Water availability/utilisation 84 bcm / average Little utilisation Little utilisation How much water are Egypt and Sudan utilising?
  9. 9. The 1959 Agreement Water allocations defined by the 1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters Current water utilisation of the Nile waters ?
  10. 10. The storage capacity
  11. 11. The riparians
  12. 12. EGYPT SUDAN ETHIOPIA + Equatorial states Geography Geography Geography Material power Material power Material power Bargaining power Bargaining power Bargaining power Ideational power Ideational power Ideational power Power asymmetries
  13. 13. The enduring conflict Control Contribution Utilisation Donwstream Upstream Allocation
  14. 14. Equitable utilisation Development Benefits- Sharing Towards Cooperation Donwstream Upstream
  15. 15. Hydropolitics Past Since mid-1990s (HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY COOPERATION: Development opportunities Basin-wide approach Investment projects Legal negotiations Donors support CONFLICT: Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation Non-inclusive water agreements (contested) Uneven water developments Securitisated hydropolitics
  16. 16. The cooperation process since 1999 1997-2007 2012!?
  17. 17. The Two-Track process <ul><li>NILE BASIN INITIATIVE </li></ul><ul><li>COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT </li></ul>
  18. 18. Nile Basin Initiative GOAL Benefit-Sharing Paradigm
  19. 19. NBI Operational Structure
  20. 20. NBI ‘philosophy’
  21. 21. NBI Programs
  22. 22. NBI Donors
  23. 23. The legal negotiations  New Agreement  Renegotiation of volumetric allocations  Prior use  Acquired rights  Prior Notification  “ New water”  No-harm Principle River Basin Organisation  STATUS QUO  New Agreement  Renegotiation of volumetric allocations  New uses  Acquired rights  Prior Notification  Investment  Equitable and reasonable utilisation Principle  River Basin Organisation  STATUS QUO ? DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANS
  24. 24. 2007-2010: The deadlock NILE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT [...] Article 14b: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security of any other Nile Basin State .&quot; Egypt/Sudan proposal: “ (...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.” [...] No water allocations included in the agreement
  25. 25. 2010: The big challenge! POTENTIAL Collective bargaining power Challenge/Pressure Balance of power Changes in the status quo Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation) LIMITS Agreement without Egypt? Implementation challenges Egypt’s response Geopolitics Donors behaviour Access to investment
  26. 26. Future scenarios (as per 2009) Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
  27. 27. Meanwhile...
  28. 28. Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011 Changing realpolitik : new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ... ‘ Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources Regional integration: Towards economic multilaterism Unilateralism: Unilateral hydraulic development
  29. 29. Hydropolitics pre-2011 Official ‘ dyad’ UpstreamBloc
  30. 30. 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin
  31. 31. More tomorrow... [email_address]

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