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  • “Green Famine”: land is green and crops are growing, but in which people are starving
  • Location /// Crop type and rotation /// Area under utilisation /// Rainfed or irrigation?
  • Cascao_TWM_Workshop_Nile_Land

    1. 1. The Nile Basin: Land ‘investments’ –Challenges for Peace and Development? Ana Elisa Cascão Workshop ‘Shared Water’ Stockholm, 3-4 December 2012
    2. 2. Nile: the water,NBI, 2012 the Basin, the countries and its population
    3. 3. Nile Basin Political Economy
    4. 4. Nile Basin: agricultural development (past and present) Current Food Development (In)Security Agricultural Poverty and Trade Food Crises
    5. 5. Main Nileagricultural systemsIrrigation (medium and large): Egypt and SudanRainfed mechanised farming: North Sudan Rainfed subsistence agriculture (small holders): Upstream countries (Agro-)Pastoralism: Sudan, Ethiopia, South Sudan and Uganda
    6. 6. Land Useand Pastoralism
    7. 7. Food (in)security
    8. 8. AgricultureTrade Balance
    9. 9. Inter-BasinAgriculture Trade
    10. 10. Trade: intra-regional and outside the Basin Zeitoun, Allan and Mohieldeen, 2010
    11. 11. Trade: intra-regional and outside the Basin Zeitoun, Allan and Mohieldeen, 2010
    12. 12. Nile Basin: Food Crises 1990s: 2010/11:1970s Horn of War-related(Ethiopia) food crises Africa 1980s 2000s: (Ethiopia and ‘Green Sudan) Famine’ Climate Conflicts Politics Aid Land use and productivity ...
    13. 13. Land-related Challenges for Development and Peace are not new
    14. 14. Nile Basin: agriculture development (potential/future) Potential Foreign Land Agricutural Acquisitions Development Land, Transboundary Development Dimension and Peace
    15. 15. Nile Agricultural Potential High agricultural potential Land and water available Agriculture and the NBI (Project: ‘Efficient Water Use for Agricultural Production’) Lack of regional perspective vs. National- based developments Nile Basin: Old ‘breadbasket’ phenomen Land Acquisitions: not a new reality 2008: Global tipping point in the foreign land acquistions
    16. 16. Foreign land acquisitions in the Nile Basin: not a new phenomen• Sudan, the breadbasket• Colonial times + 1970/80s• Commercial/mechanised agriculture• Market-oriented agriculture• Priority for food production?• 1980s: famine crisis in Sudan• Breadbasket dream failed
    17. 17. New land acquisitions in the Nile Basin • Since 2008 • What is being produced? • Who are the ‘dealers’? • Political process • Status of land leased/developed • Main challenges
    18. 18. New land deals: what and who is involved? Sugarcane Biofuels  Foreign investors (private and public): Gulf countries, India, China, Cotton Rice US and EU - and Egypt  ‘National’ investors: agri-businessPalm Oil Flowers companies, diaspora, etc Coffee/ Corn,  National governments: federal and Tea wheat, regional level alfafa, groundnuts
    19. 19. Political process: advantages for ‘investors’ • Fertile land and and water available •Long-term land leases • Market liberalisation • Cheap labour • Low land rents • Tax exemptions • Support from the national governments • Policy framework for intensification of commercial agriculture • No limits on water use •Often access to existing infrastructures • Possibility to build hydraulic infrastructure •Free access to the water resources (KEY) ACCESS TO UNTAPPED WATER RESOURCES
    20. 20. Political process: Benefits for host countries• Development of ‘unused’ productive land• Technology transfer• Infrastructure improvements• Employment• Macroeconomic investment/growth
    21. 21. Status of land leased/developed? Leased (millions of hectares of land) 50% Impacts? <10%
    22. 22. New foreign land acquisitions: main challenges• Customary uses • Monoculture and rights • Deforestation,• Agriculture vs. soil quality Pastoralism • Water flow• Local food regimes security Socio-Economic Environmental Political/ Development• Policy options: Security macro/micro • Local resource- based conflicts• National food security • Transboundary impacts• Sustainbale development • Power balance
    23. 23. Land, development and peace National development Peace and imperatives/ security in host countries sovereignty Missing link: regional approach Global development Regional perspectives: Peace and international security markets
    24. 24. Nile Basin:Transboundary dimension of the new land deals • Land and water nexus • Water allocation for agriculture development – what, where and how? • Positive: Awareness of agriculture potential – new opportunities for trade and new markets • Negative: Old grievances about water for agriculture
    25. 25. Conclusion• New land deals: tipping point in the Nile agricultural development?• Large vs. Small-scale agriculture: benefits and challenges• Food-crops vs. Cash-crops: benefits and challenges• Peace and Security: local-national- regional conflict nexus• Regional approach to agricultural development in the Nile Basin?
    26. 26. Thanks for your attention!