The Sudans and the NilesThe Sudans and the NilesAna Elisa Cascao, SIWIAna Elisa Cascao, SIWIAddis Ababa, 11 June 2013Addis Ababa, 11 June 2013
Map: the Sudans and the NilesMap: the Sudans and the NilesNot upstream,not downstreambut midstream
The ‘hidden’ maps: the trianglesThe ‘hidden’ maps: the triangles
Sudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsSudans: key players in the Nile hydropoliticsNorth Sudan:North Sudan: the riparian state that can utilisemore Nile water resourcesSouth Sudan:South Sudan: the riparian state can (potentially)increase the Nile water resourcesKing-makersKing-makers in the complex hydropolitical Nilegame (multilateral, trilateral and bilateral)
North Sudan:North Sudan:the wild hydropolitical cardthe wild hydropolitical card• Current and future uses of the Nile waters• Water consumption:the nexus between irrigation, livestock & energy• Water diplomacy:looking down (dyad) & looking up (potential)
North Sudan: the irrigation potentialNorth Sudan: the irrigation potential
North Sudan:North Sudan:the irrigationthe irrigationpotentialpotential
North Sudan: the livestock potentialNorth Sudan: the livestock potential
North Sudan:North Sudan:the livestockthe livestockpotentialpotentialSource: Sudan Central Bureau of Statistics (unpublished data); In PastoralismBriefing Papers, part of UNEP Sudan Integrated Environment Project
North Sudan: current and futureNorth Sudan: current and futurehydro-economic strategy?hydro-economic strategy?• Oil or agriculture/livestock• Back to the breadbasket idea?• Sugar/Ethanol ambitions• Is there water enough?
South Sudan: the new Nile riparianSouth Sudan: the new Nile riparian• 11th Nile riparian state• Part of the two Nile regions• Prospects for agriculture, livestock & hydropower• Current and future hydro-economic strategy?• Hydropolitical positionality?
South Sudan:South Sudan:Resource-basedResource-baseddevelopmentdevelopment• The rise and fall of an oil economy• Back to the basics…Agricultureand Livestock• Trade-offs and social conflicts• Increasing energy demands
South Sudan and the Nile in theSouth Sudan and the Nile in thepost-independence periodpost-independence periodAlignment:1959 Agreementor CFA?• Foreign Policy• Negotiations• Water Allocations• Jonglei Canal
Pre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsPre and Post-Referendum NegotiationsHydropoliticalimplications of SouthSudan’s secession?Nile discussions in 2 folders:• International Agreementsand• Natural Resources
Scenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the NileScenarios: South Sudan vis-à-vis the Nile
South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?South Sudan: Up the Nile, Down the Nile?• Political and econoniccalculations• Political and economicrelations with Egyptand Sudan• Political and economicrelations with Africanneighbours (Ethiopia,Uganda, Kenya, and otherEAC countries)
Jonglei Canal:Jonglei Canal:yes or not(or maybe)?
Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: the creation of a new border?Jonglei Canal: a symbol of colonialism and a symbol of warImpacts: hydrological, environmental, social, political, ...Technical engineering or social-political engineering??JongleiCanal
Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?Nile: the bridge between the two Sudans?AgricultureEnergyHydropolitics
New bookResource-based conflict andcooperation in South Sudanand Gambella (Ethiopia):When Water, Land and OilMix With Politics