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Cascao&Conway Stockholm Doube Faced Cooperation Nile Basin

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Cascao&Conway Stockholm Doube Faced Cooperation Nile Basin

  1. 1. Double-faced Hydropolitical Cooperation in the Nile Basin Dr. Declan Conway, UEA and Ana Elisa Cascão, KCL World Water Week 2009
  2. 2. Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin <ul><li>FEATURES </li></ul><ul><li>Complex hydrology </li></ul><ul><li>Strong power asymmetries </li></ul><ul><li>Absence of basin-wide management </li></ul><ul><li>Conflict over water allocation </li></ul><ul><li>Weak levels of regional integration </li></ul><ul><li>1980s-1990s </li></ul><ul><li>“ Emblematic events” </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers for collaboration/cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>Multilateral processes initiated </li></ul>
  3. 3. Nile Cooperation: 2 tracks 1997: COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEEMENT 1999: NILE BASIN INITIATIVE Cooperation in time of “abundance”
  4. 4. Double-faced Cooperation <ul><li>EFFECTIVE </li></ul><ul><li>NBI: strong team of technical experts (capacity-building) </li></ul><ul><li>Broader sense of cooperation (BS+WS) </li></ul><ul><li>Addressing legal issues </li></ul><ul><li>More balanced up-downstream barganing power </li></ul><ul><li>Identification of investment projects (SAPs) </li></ul><ul><li>Recognition of multiple benefits </li></ul><ul><li>COUNTER-EFFECTIVE </li></ul><ul><li>Weak influence technocrats  politicians </li></ul><ul><li>Deadlocked legal framework </li></ul><ul><li>No strong basin institution </li></ul><ul><li>Still politicised/securitised </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of political commitment </li></ul><ul><li>Few cooperative facts-on-the-ground </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing risk of unilateralism </li></ul>
  5. 5. Flashback and Flashforward Future Past
  6. 6. Learning from the past: case studies of climate events in the Nile basin <ul><ul><li>What were the responses to these events and what was the role of Nile Basin institutions in these responses? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Do extreme climate events lead to conflict or cooperation? </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>How does cooperation/conflict influence adaptation? </li></ul></ul>Events Droughts in Ethiopia, low Blue Nile flows and low level of Lake Nasser (Egypt/Sudan) in mid 1980s. Flooding and blockage on Nile in Uganda, 1998-2000 Low levels of Lake Victoria, 2005-2007
  7. 7. <ul><ul><li>Impacts on power supply, urban water supply, transport, fish landing sites, fears for health of ecosystem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tensions between Uganda, Tanzania and Kenya </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Role of regional institutions: cooperative interactions instigated through East African Community, study of water balance and proposed revision to water release policy </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Tensions not yet resolved </li></ul></ul>Lake Victoria – drop in level
  8. 8. Scenarios of climate and water use for discussion Future Climate Change impact on water Hydro-political situation Decrease in Nile flows Increase in Nile flows Maintenance of status-quo Adaptation necessary throughout basin, reduced options for adaptation for upper basin riparians Positive adaptation possible for Egypt and Sudan (need for upper basin to adapt to flood risk) Increasing use of water by upstream countries Adaptation options of upper basin countries may disadvantage adaptation of downstream countries Adaptation options available to all riparians?
  9. 9. <ul><li>Cooperation in time of “abundance” is likely to be more effective than in time of “stress” </li></ul><ul><li>10 years on: Momentum for reflexive cooperation </li></ul><ul><li>2009: Political “emblematic events” in the Nile Basin </li></ul><ul><li>Towards more effective cooperation: </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced power asymmetries </li></ul><ul><li>Ownership of the process </li></ul><ul><li>Ratification of the Cooperative Framework Agreement (CFA) </li></ul><ul><li>Linkage between CFA and “Benefits-Creation” </li></ul>Seizing the momentum!
  10. 10. <ul><li>Thanks for your attention! </li></ul>