Livestock in developing countries: Animal health challenges and opportunities

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Presented by Jimmy Smith at the General Assembly of the International Federation for Animal Health, Brussels, 25 April 2013 …

Presented by Jimmy Smith at the General Assembly of the International Federation for Animal Health, Brussels, 25 April 2013

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  • 70% of the world’s rural poor: LID. Updates
  • This update was done in 2012 as part of the DFID mapping project. Estimates of poor livestock keepers vary from around 700 million to over a billion depending on the source.
  • Period Disease (Country) Start Estimate 1986-2009 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (UK) 1986 15,500,000,000 6.1 billion in 1997-2009 1994 Plague (India) 1994 2,000,000,000 Sept. 1998-April 1999 Nipah virus (Malaysia) 1998 671,000,000 January 1999-Dec. 2008 West Nile fever (USA) 1999 400,000,000 Nov. 2002-July 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (CD, China, ROW)2002 41,500,000,000 January 2004-January 2009Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Asia) 2004 20,000,000,000 2003-2007 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (USA) 2004 11,000,000,000 Oct. 2005-Jan. 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Europe) 2005 500,000,000 Nov. 2005-January 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Africa) 2005 Nov. 2006-May 2007 Rift Valley Fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) 2006 30,000,000 per year without SARS 48,329,000,000 2,301,380,952 SARS 41,500,000,000 1,976,190,476 Total in 1986-2006 89,829,000,000 4,277,571,429 Total in 1998-2009 only 80,201,000,000 6,683,416,667 without SARS 38,701,000,000 3,225,083,333 SARS 41,500,000,000 3,458,333,333 Annual avg (12 yrs) for 7 outbreaks is $3.2 b If SARS is once in 12-yrs event, the annual cost is $3.5 b Moreover, there are other zoonotic diseases that are not included in this calculation. For instance HIV/AIDs which imposes heavy human, social and economic costs. At present, programs to control the disease are spending on the order of $10 billion per year – if we had included this, the total costs would be even more staggering. Costs of a flu pandemic would range from about 5x the impact of these 8 outbreaks in a mild flu scenario (455 billion) to about 40 x in a severe flu scenario ($3.1 trillion). Most of these costs would be indirect.  
  • In the same study, we also mapped emerging zoonotic events between 1940 and 2012. Those of the last decade are shown as blue dots, while earlier events are coloured red. In recent years, more events have been reported from the rapidly intensifying regions of S America and SE Asia
  • No vaccine for ASF, disease affects trade and market access. Wiped out half pig population in Madagascar in the late 1990’s.
  • We are investigating the links between climate change, novel irrigation and the emergence of new diseases Our high-throughput facilities support ‘virus hunting’ and discovery of new pathogens. Last year we published the first ever report of Nduma virus in pigs We are also working on decision support tools, to allow early detection of outbreaks – one of these tools has been adopted by the Kenya vet services. We have developed a lateral flow test for the rapid diagnosis of cysticercosis: this is now being tested in the field As well as improving the ECF infection and treatment method, we are developing new vaccines for ECF and CBPP and testing vaccine strategies (showing for example that AI vaccination it is ineffective in the backyard sector in Indonesia)
  • This is a list of some by no means all of the activities under the major banners. Others include: tools to measure antibody and cellular immune responses characterization of protective immune responses cataloging genes and genome evolution molecular markers for diagnostic purposes p athogen and host population dynamics: distribution and diversity deciphering gene function
  • We are supporting 3 regional centers for One Health research in Vietnam, Thailand and Indonesia Later this year a book will be published capturing 10 years research in informal food markets We have pioneered integrated human & livestock multiple diseases surveys in Africa and Asia


  • 1. Livestock in developing countries:Animal health challengesand opportunitiesGeneral Assembly of the International Federation forAnimal Health, Brussels, 25 April 2013Jimmy Smith
  • 2. OUTLINEThe global challenge for agricultureLivestock dimensionsThe case of animal healthA bit about ILRI
  • 3. THE GLOBAL CHALLENGEHow the world would feed itself sustainably bythe time population stabiles?60% more food than is produced now75% of this must come from productivityincreaseWhile also reducing povertyCoping with the 2 degree temperature scenario--and possibly 4 degrees
  • 4. OUTLINELivestock dimensions of that challenge –butalso opportunity
  • 5. Percentage increase in demandfor livestock productsIFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model resultsFar higher growth in demand will occur in developing countries
  • 6. By 2040, 70% of global beef and milk will be producedin developing countries by smallholders in transitionIFPRI-ILRI IMPACT model results%
  • 7. 0510152090 95 2000 2004 2005 2008 2009MilliontonnesBeef Pork PoultryMeat OvineTrade matters --but local markets matter moreThe value of meat tradeis estimated over $100billion in 2011,approximately 10 percentof agricultural trade.However, trade of meataccount for only 10percent of total livestockconsumption
  • 8. THE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGESThe Livestock DimensionsPromoting growth with equity –small holderparticipationConnecting small holders to marketsRaising livestock productivityAnimal-human-ecosystems health & food safetyRendering livestock systems moreenvironmentally sustainableAmeliorating the effects of climate change onlivestock
  • 9. Livestock for livelihoods in the developing world 70% of the world’s rural poor rely onlivestock for important parts of theirlivelihoods. Of the 600 million poor livestock keepers inthe world, around two-thirds are ruralwomen. More than half of livestock products areproduced by small holders – and growing Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keepingcome from non-market, intangible benefits,mostly insurance and financing.
  • 10. Livestock keepers in developing countriesDensity of poorlivestock keepersOne billion people earning <$2 a day depend on livestock600 million in south Asia300 million in sub Saharan AfricaILRI, 20120 or no data
  • 11. To eat meat or not to eat . . .One billion hungry Two billion overweight
  • 12. Addressing GHG inefficiencies in thedeveloping world is an opportunityHerrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)GHG per kg of animal protein produced
  • 13. A global water crisis 2 billion peoplelack access Demand is growing;freshwater is gettingscarcer 70% of totalfreshwater use is foragriculture,of which 31%is for livestock
  • 14. Source: (Steinfeld et al. 2006)Large productivity gaps between richand poor countries are not closingSome developing country regions have gaps of up to 430% in milk
  • 15. OUTLINEAnimal health issues
  • 16. Costs of emerging zoonotic disease outbreaks(US$ billion)PeriodCosts (conservativeestimates)Annualaverage6 outbreaks other than SARS-Nipah virus (Malaysia),-West Nile fever (USA),-HPAI (Asia, Europe),-BSE (US),-Rift Valley Fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia)- BSE (UK) costs in 1997-09 only1998-2009 38.7SARS 2002-2004 41.5Total in 12 yearperiod (1998-2009)80.26.7 b16Source World Bank 2012
  • 17. Annual losses from selected diseases –Africa and South AsiaEstimates from BMGF
  • 18. • West USA & west Europe hotspots• Last decade: S America & SE Asia
  • 19. 19982007Globalization of transboundary disease:Example African swine feverThreat to $150 billionglobal pig industry
  • 20. OUTLINEA bit about ILRI
  • 21. CIMMYTMexico CityMexicoIFPRIWash. DCUSACIPLimaPeruCIATCaliColombiaBioversityInternationalRome ItalyAfricaRiceCotonouBeninIITAIbadanNigeriaILRINairobiKenyaWorldAgroforestryNairobiKenyaICARDAAleppoSyrian Arab Rep. ICRISATPatancheruIndiaIWMIColomboSri LankaIRRILos BanosPhillippinesWorld FishPenangMalaysiaCIFORBogorIndonesiaCGIAR Research Centres
  • 22. ILRI OfficesMaliNigeriaMozambiqueKenyaEthiopiaIndiaSri LankaChinaLaosVietnamThailandNairobi: HeadquartersAddis Ababa: principal campusIn 2012, offices opened in:Kampala, UgandaHarare, ZimbabweGaborone, BotswanaOffice in Bamako, Malirelocated toOuagadougou, Burkina FasoDakar, Senegal
  • 23. ILRI Nairobi campusA lab in Africa at the foot of Kenya’sNgong Hills★
  • 24. ILRI resources• Staff: 700• Budget: $74 million• 30+ scientific disciplines• 150 senior scientists from 39 countries• 56% of internationally recruitedstaff are from 22 developing countries• 34% of internationally recruited staffare women• Large campuses in Kenya and Ethiopia
  • 25. ILRI’s research teams25Integrated sciences BiosciencesAnimal science for sustainableproductivityBecA-ILRI hubFood safety and zoonoses Vaccine platformLivestock systems and theenvironmentAnimal bioscienceLivelihoods, gender and impact Feed and forage biosciencePolicy, trade, value chains Bioscience facilities
  • 26. A portfolio of innovation and vaccinerelated technology platformsOptimizing existing vaccines Thermostabilization of attenuated viral vaccines Establishing quality control and process improvementReverse vaccinology and immunology Identification of vaccine antigens Assessing protein and gene-based vaccine formulationsPathogen & livestock genomics Host and pathogen gene expression profiles Pathogen population structureSynthetic genomics Manipulating bacterial genomes Attenuating viruses by genome engineeringACTGGTACGTAGGGCATCGATCGACATGATAGAGCATATAGCATGACGATGCGATCGACAGTCGACAGCTGACAGCTGAGGGTGACACCAGCTGCCAGCTGGACCACCATTAGGACAGATGACCACACACAAATAGACGATTAGGACCAGATGAGCCACATTTTAGGAGGACACACACCABioinformaticstoolsPredict genesequences andlist candidatevaccine antigensTest experimental vaccineClone genes ofvaccine interest(100’s of genes)Filter genes viaimmunologicalassaysPathogen genome mining(1000’s of genes)Molecular immunologytools to assess immuneresponses in cattle(10’s genes)
  • 27. Opportunity: Employ ‘one health’ for diseases ofintensification and food-borne diseasesConducting integrated human & livestockdisease surveys: Kenya, Laos, Vietnam, ChinaSupporting one -healthresource centers inVietnam, Thailand andIndonesia• Undertakingparticipatoryrisk analysis forsafe foods ininformalmarkets
  • 28. The presentation has a Creative Commons licence. You are free to re-use or distribute this work, provided credit isgiven to ILRI.better lives through