Rising Above_ Dubai Floods and the Fortitude of Dubai International Airport.pdf
Alan GRAINGER "Is zero net land degradation in dry areas a feasible operational goal?"
1. Is
Zero
Net
Land
Degrada0on
in
Dry
Areas
a
Feasible
Opera0onal
Goal?
Alan
Grainger
University
of
Leeds
2. Zero
Net
Land
Degrada0on
Reduce
the
rate
of
deser4fica4on
+
Increase
the
rate
of
restora4on
of
deser4fied
land
African
Union
(2012)
Rio
+
20
Conference
A
modest
intermediate
step
to
hal4ng
deser4fica4on:
"While
completely
hal4ng
[deser4fica4on]
by
2030
may
be
difficult,
seKng
a
target
of
Zero
Net
Land
Degrada4on
by
2030
is
realis4c."
UNCCD
Secretariat
(2012)
3. UNCCD
Dra>
Strategy
• Adopt
sustainable
land
management
prac4ces
• Avoid
degrada4on
on
non-‐degraded
lands
by
intensifying
use
of
exis4ng
agricultural
lands
• Employ
community-‐based
implementa4on
• Introduce
payments
for
ecosystem
services
• Involve
governments,
private
sector,
farmers
• Possibly
add
a
ZNLD
Protocol
to
the
UNCCD
4. Methods
for
Controlling
Deser0fica0on
(Grainger,
1990)
Alleviate
pressure
on
rangelands
by
more
Improve
rainfed
crop
produc0on
intensive
cropping
on
exis4ng
arable
lands
Develop
drought-‐resistant
varie4es
Improve
community
control
over
boreholes
Increase
the
use
of
fer4lizers
Promote
self-‐regula4on
by
nomads
Improve
the
resilience
of
cropping
system,
Increase
tree
cover
Use
social
forestry
projects
with
mul4ple
Make
beYer
use
of
rainfall
purpose
trees
that
supply
local
needs
Promote
awareness,
wide
support,
and
Improve
irrigated
crop
produc4on
trust
between
farmers
and
foresters
Improve
the
quality
of
management
Involve
NGOs
in
tree
plan4ng
schemes
Maintain
equipment
and
canals
beYer
Expand
tree
planta4ons
on
farms
Improve
drainage
and
farmer
involvement
Mix
Yrees
with
cropping/livestock
raising
Favour
small-‐scale
projects
Give
farmers
beYer
technical
assistance
Improve
livestock
raising
Improve
natural
woodland
management
Improve
animal
quality
Improve
policies
and
planning
Reduce
stocking
levels
Improve
land-‐use
planning
Restore
village
fallow
land
Give
greater
policy
priority
to
rainfed
crops
Protect
folder
trees
from
illegal
browsing
Promote
integrated
land
use
schemes
7. 1.
Poli0cal
Challenges:
Deser0fica0on
is
an
Ambiguous
Concept
• Developing
countries
– Development
constraints
– Welcome
income
for
restoring
degraded
land
• Developed
countries
– Environmental
emphasis
– Welcome
reduc4on
in
deser4fica4on
rate
8. 2.
Complexity:
ZNLD
has
a
Compound
Goal
rate
+
• Reduce
deser4fica4on
• Increase
restora4on
rate
• Subtract
restored
area
from
deser4fied
area
• Implement
and
monitor
separately
• CBD
Target
2010
–
single
goal
-‐
reduce
biodiversity
loss
rate
• REDD+
-‐
addi4ve
goals
-‐
cut
deforesta4on
&
degrada4on
rates
9. 3.
Societal
Constraints
• Lack
of
internal
poli0cal
support
• Conflicts
with
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
– Conflicts
between
indigenous
property
rights
and
commercial
restora4on
– Poor
capacity
to
channel
interna4onal
funds
– Constrain
endogenous
ini4a4ves
• Difficul0es
in
integra0ng
deser0fica0on
control
and
restora0on
into
na0onal
land
use
planning
–
Global
programmes
ofen
ignore
scien4fic
knowledge
about
complexity
of
human-‐environment
phenomena
10. Deser0fica0on
Processes
in
Dryland
Development
Paradigm
(Reynolds,
2007)
• Mul4ple
links
between
mul4ple
land
uses
and
socio-‐economic
driving
and
controlling
forces
• Reciprocal
("coupled")
rela4onships
with
mul4ple
feedbacks
• Cross-‐scalar
rela4onships
– Driven
by
intensifica4on
– Unsustainable
intensifica4on
would
exacerbate
this
12. 1.
Monitoring
Restora0on
• Monitoring
revegeta4on
of
defined
areas
is
feasible
• Monitoring
soil
improvement
will
be
harder
• Establishing
baselines
for
deser4fied
areas
in
each
country
will
also
be
more
difficult
13. Areas
With
At
Least
Moderate
Deser0fica0on
(million
ha)
Dregne
(1983)
Mabbu]
(1984)
UNEP
Atlas
(1992)
Africa
490
741
201
Asia
769
748
213
Australia
403
112
4
North
America
399
208
66
South
America
174
162
37
Europe
20
30
86
Total
2,255
2,001
607
14. Limited
Land
Suitability
and
Availability
• Only
some
degraded
land
suited
to
revegeta4on
– 0.3
billion
ha
of
all
2
billion
ha
of
deser4fied
land
• Area
of
land
suited
to
soil
reclama4on
unknown
15. 2.
Establishing
Baselines
for
Deser0fica0on
Rates
is
Difficult
Too
• Only
one
es4mate
of
deser4fica4on
rate
– 20
million
ha/annum
in
1970s
(Dregne,
1983)
• LiYle
progress
since
then
• Bai
et
al.
(2008)
coarse
(8
km)
resolu4on
images
– NPP
change
–
vegeta4on
only
– Assessed
"degrading
areas",
not
degraded
lands
– "Drylands
do
not
feature
strongly
in
ongoing
land
degrada4on,
apart
from
in
Australia."
16. 3.
Measuring
Change
in
a
Mul0ple
A]ribute
Phenomenon
of
Deser0fica0on
• Need
coherent
&
compact
set
of
indicators
• Measure
on
severity
scale
0-‐100%
17. Need
a
Coherent
and
Compact
Set
of
Indicators
for
These
Mul0ple
A]ributes
of
Deser0fica0on
Vegetation degradation
Soil degradation
Area
Water erosion
Percentage vegetation/tree cover
Wind erosion
Biomass density
Compaction
Carbon density
Waterlogging
Ecosystem type
Salinization
Species density
Alkalinization
18. Sets
of
Deser0fica0on
Indicators
Dregne
(1977)
Dregne
(1983)
GLASOD
Mabbu]
(1984)
Middleton
&
Thomas
(1992)
LADA
(2005)
Vegeta4on
degrada4on
Bio4c
func4ons
Aridity
index
Water
erosion
Soil
erosion
Rainfall
variability
Wind
erosion
Terrain
suitability
for
farming
Soil
moisture
Irrigated
crop
yields
Farm
yields
Soil
health
Ease
of
restoring
terrain
Soil
loss
Ease
of
restoring
yields
Soil
salinity
Soil
fer4lity
Soil
contamina4on
Vegeta4on
ac4vity
Vegeta4on
density
Water
availability
Groundwater
level
Water
salinity
Water
contamina4on
19. Difficul0es
With
Poli0cal
Indicator
Schemes
• Indicators
not
coherent
or
compact
• Nine
forest
criteria
and
indicator
schemes
not
used
(Grainger,
2012)
• UNCBD
Target
2010
indicators
not
feasible
(Butchart
et
al.,
2010)
• UNCCD
impact
indicators:
only
one
measures
status
20. UNCCD
Impact
Indicators
a. Provisional
indicators
b.
Refined
indicators
1
Water
availability
per
capita
Water
availability
per
capita
2
Change
in
land
use
Change
in
land
use
3
Propor4on
of
the
popula4on
in
affected
Propor4on
of
the
popula4on
in
affected
areas
areas
living
above
the
poverty
line
living
above
the
poverty
line
4
Childhood
malnutri4on
and/or
food
Food
consump4on
per
capita
consump4on/calorie
intake
per
capita
in
affected
areas
5
The
Human
Development
Index
Capacity
of
soils
to
sustain
agro-‐pastoral
use
6
Level
of
land
degrada4on
Degree
of
land
degrada4on
7
Plant
and
animal
biodiversity
Plant
and
animal
biodiversity
8
Aridity
index
Drought
index
9
Land
cover
status
Land
cover
status
10
Carbon
stocks
above
and
below
ground
Carbon
stocks
above
and
below
ground
11
Land
under
sustainable
land
management
Land
under
sustainable
land
management
21. 3.
Measuring
Change
in
the
Mul0ple
A]ributes
of
Deser0fica0on
•
only
some
a]ributes:
Remote
sensing
measures
– Vegeta4on
degrada4on
difficult:
sparse
tree
density
– Water
erosion:
large
gullies
only
– Wind
erosion:
not
measurable
– Sandy
area
expansion:
feasible
– Saliniza4on:
saline
areas
but
not
degree
of
saliniza4on
• Ra0o
of
ground
data
to
remote
sensing
data
higher
than
for
other
global
environmental
phenomena
23. Solu0ons:
Phase
1
1.
Focus
on
restoring
degraded
land
2.
Develop
integrated
land-‐use
planning
tools/capaci4es.
3.
Develop
interna4onal/na4onal
monitoring
capaci4es.
*
Establish
interna4onal
scien4fic
network
to
advise
the
UNCCD
and
iden4fy
a
credible
set
of
indicators
*
Establish
Global
Drylands
Observing
System
(GDOS)
for
ini4al
global
and
na4onal
measurements
and
technology
transfer
and
training
24. Solu0ons:
Phase
2
1.
Now
reduce
deser4fica4on
rate
too
2.
Begin
with
phased
targets,
e.g.
reduce
the
deser4fica4on
rate
by
10%
by
2020.
3.
Integrate
na4onal
land
use
planning
systems
and
na4onal
deser4fica4on
monitoring
systems.
25. Solu0ons:
Phase
3
Set
Target
Year
for
achieving
Zero
Net
Land
Degrada4on,
based
on
the
experiences
of
implemen4ng
Phases
1
and
2.
26. Which
Pilots?
• ZNLD
Workshop,
4th
Interna0onal
Conference
on
Drylands,
Deserts
and
Deser0fica0on
– Local
pilots
– Ignore
na4onal/interna4onal
implementa4on
challenges
– Conflate
restora4on
&
deser4fica4on
control
• Need
na0onal
pilots
too:
– Test
new
planning
and
monitoring
systems
– Find
weaknesses
to
correct
– Provide
models
for
many
countries
27. Conclusions
• Zero
Net
Land
Degrada4on
a
good
idea
• Risky
to
aim
to
reduce
both
the
deser4fica4on
rate
and
land
restora4on
rate
immediately
when
the
first
of
these
is
not
known
and
implementa4on
and
monitoring
capacity
is
minimal
• A
phased
approach
would
restore
degraded
land
first,
and
reduce
the
deser4fica4on
rate
when
planning
and
monitoring
capaci4es
are
in
place
• Get
joint
commitment
by
developing
&
developed
countries
–
all
vulnerable
to
climate
change.