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The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible
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The Net Effect: It's Not What We Make, It's What We Make Possible

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This slidecast touches on a few trends and implications of what Cisco IBSG is calling "The Net Effect," a preview of what the network is enabling. For more information go to …

This slidecast touches on a few trends and implications of what Cisco IBSG is calling "The Net Effect," a preview of what the network is enabling. For more information go to http://www.cisco.com/go/ibsg/innovations.

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  • Follow on twitter:@DaveTheFuturistFor more information: http://www.cisco.com/go/ibsg/innovations
  • Transcript

    • 1. TM The Net Effect It’s Not What We Make, It’s What We Make Possible Dave Evans Cisco’s Chief Futurist and Chief Technologist for Cisco IBSG @DaveTheFuturist For more information: http://www.cisco.com/go/ibsg/innovationsCisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 1
    • 2. We Are Living in Exponential Times Consider… In 50 years, 95% of everything we know will have been discovered in those 50 years. — Evans The 21st century will be equivalent to 20,000 years of progress at today’s rate – about 1,000 times greater than the 20th century. — Ray Kurzweil American Author, Inventor, and FuturistCisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 2
    • 3. The Internet of Things Is Already Here World Population: 6.3 Billion 6.8 Billion 7.2 Billion 7.6 Billion Connected Devices: 500 Million ~10 Billion 19 Billion 50 Billion More connected devices than people Connected Devices 0.08 1.47 2.64 6.58 Per Person 2003 2010 2015 2020 19 billion devices, 3.4 billion Internet users by 2016 Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011, Cisco VNI 2012Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 3
    • 4. IoT Growth Coming in accelerating waves? 1995 – 2000 2000 - 2011 2011 - 2020 “Fixed” computing Mobility / BYOD Internet of Things (You go the device) (The device goes with you) 50B? 10 B 200 M Doubled every 1.3 years Doubled every 1.4 years Doubles every x years? Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2012Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 4
    • 5. 50Billion ―Things‖ Could Be Just the Beginning… Computer Camera MEMS sensor (1x1x1mm) (1x1x1mm) (0.05 x 005 mm)  Ultra-low-power  Size of a grain of salt  MEMS: Micro-electro- processor  250x250 resolution mechanical systems  Pressure sensor  Disposable  Sense temperature,  Memory  Medical and security pressure, movement,  Thin-film battery applications etc.  Solar cell  Represents fourth- generation sensor  Wireless radio with antenna Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; University of Michigan, 2011; Fraunhofer, 2011; Wikipedia, 2011Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 5
    • 6. New Internet Inhabitants What do trees, cows, shoes, and your body have in common? This tree has 4,200 followers… Cow transmits do you? 200 MB per year Connected shoe Asthma inhaler cross-referenced with environmental / weather data LIFX WiFi-enabled, color Proteus chip changing LED light bulb transmits data from your stomach Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Sparked, 2010; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011, Kickstarter 2012Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 6
    • 7. Information Explosion Estimated 5 exabytes of unique information created in 2008 Equivalent to: By 2013:  1 billion DVDs in one year…  Every ten minutes. …more information than the past 5,000 years Sources: Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cisco IBSG, 2006–2012, Google, 2012Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 7
    • 8. Just Three Years Later Estimated 1.2 zettabytes of unique information created Equivalent to: By 2013:  Every person on earth  125 million years of your tweeting for 100 years favorite 1-hour TV show By 2020, digital library 44 times larger than 2009 Sources: IDC, 2010; Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 8
    • 9. Information Explosion >560apps downloaded 210 billion email messages per day every second 60 hours of video By 2015, 1 million video minutes (equivalent to 674 days) will traverse the uploaded every minute 1/4 million full-length Hollywood Internet every second releases every week (3 billion views per day) LAST YEAR’S MOBILE DATA TRAFFIC WAS 3X THE SIZE OF THE ENTIRE GLOBAL We store 92% INTERNET IN 2000 of this new information 2/3of the world’s mobile data Home to 140 traffic will be video by 2015 billion photos 10B/Month …and the pace is accelerating Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011; Cisco VNI, June 2011; Technorati; Radicati Group; IDC; The Economist; Apple; InformationWeekCisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 9
    • 10. The Next Dimension Tomorrow: Anything on DemandCisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 10
    • 11. A Logical Progression? Old Way New Way  From buying books, CDs, DVDs to downloading them  In the future, we will download things Sources: Dave Evans, Cisco IBSG, 2011; European Air Defense SystemCisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 11
    • 12. Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)  Additive manufacturing “The process of joining materials to make objects from 3D model data, usually layer upon layer” Printing file size approx. 1 MB  Subtractive manufacturing includes methodologies such as traditional machining Source: Stratasys, 2011Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 12
    • 13. Gimmick? You Decide Dinosaur skull Toy car Model engine Working bicycle Sources: Stratasys, 2011; European Air Defense SystemCisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 13
    • 14. Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 14
    • 15. Prototype Savings Method Cost estimate Time estimate Machining $900,000 9 months Stratasys FDM* $25,000 1.5 months Savings $875,000(97%) 7.5 months(83%) *Fused Deposition Modeling Source: Stratasys, 2011Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 15
    • 16. But What About Other Materials? Engine parts Complex geometries Prosthesis Jewelry Iron Man suit (plastic) Skin Sources: Shapeways; WellSphere; Graphic Speak; Ecouterre; Legacy EffectsCisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 16
    • 17. How About Dinner?  Control your diet, down to the smallest mineral  Implications for allergies, diabetes, other diseases  Download your grandmother’s meatloaf recipe for dinner? Food printer concept (MIT) Open-source 3D food printer (approx. cost: $1,000) Sources: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011; Cornell University, 2011Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 17
    • 18. From the Very Small to the Very Big A 285 µm racecar St. Stephens Cathedral ~100 µm D-Shape: robotic building system Vienna University of Technology  Uses new materials to create superior High-precision-3D-printer is orders of stone-like structures magnitude faster than similar devices  Planned tolerances of 5-10 millimeters Printing speed: Five meters / second  Four times faster than traditional building methods  Costs 30–50% less than manual methods Source: D-Shape, 2011, Vienna University of Technology, 2012Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 18
    • 19. The network matters now more than ever… …but not nearly as much as it will in the future! The journey has only just begun. “Am I ready? Is my network ready?‖ Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011Cisco IBSG © 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Cisco Public Internet Business Solutions Group 19
    • 20. For more information:http://www.cisco.com/go/ibsg/innovationsFollow me on twitter: @DaveTheFuturist

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