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The Next Five Years


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In this presentation from GTEC 2011, Canada's Government Technology Event, Cisco Canada's CTO Jeff Seifert "connects the dots" on technology trends such as the rapid acceleration of video adoption, consumer devices in the workplace, the impacts of social media, increasing security requirements, data centre and desktop virtualization and smart buildings - and what it all means today and in the future.

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The Next Five Years

  1. 1. Building The Future:The Next 5 YearsJeff SeifertCTO, Cisco Canada
  2. 2. Building The Future:The Next 5 YearsJeff SeifertCTO, Cisco Canada
  3. 3. Consumerization Globalisation Volatile EconomiesSocial Networking and Sustainable Mass Collaboration Development
  4. 4. GREATEST ENGINEERING ENGINEERING’S GRANDACHIEVEMENTS OF THE 20TH CENTURY CHALLENGES1. Electrification2. Automobile 1. Make solar energy economical3. Airplane 2. Provide energy from fusion4. Water supply & distribution 3. Develop carbon sequestration5. Electronics methods6. Radio & Television 4. Manage the nitrogen cycle7. Agricultural mechanization 5. Provide access to clean water8. Computers 6. Restore & improve urban9. Telephone infrastructure10. Air-conditioning & refrigeration 7. Advance health informatics11. Highways 8. Engineer better medicine12. Spacecraft 9. Reverse engineer the brain13. Internet14. Imaging 10. Prevent nuclear terror15. Household Appliances 11. Secure cyberspace16. Health Technologies 12. Enhance virtual reality17. Petrochemical Technologies 13. Advance personalized learning18. Laser & Fiber Optics 14. Engineer the tools of scientific19. Nuclear Technologies discovery20. High-performance materials National Academy of Engineering:
  5. 5. 1 Enable Productivity Trillion Create New Services 300 Environmentally FriendlyMillionDevices 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Cisco IBSG
  6. 6. Pervasive Communications Mobility Globalization Video•In 2014, 91% •Nearly 1/3 of the •28% of •Urbanization ofof traffic on Collaboration market employees use 700 million peoplenetworks will be will be Hosted by their mobile phone over next decade 2013 as the primaryVideo work phone •Big cities getting •40% of professional bigger…100 new•3 billion videos •From 2010 to PC’s will be managed 1M+ cities by 2025are watched 2015, global under a hosted virtualeach day on desktop model by mobile data trafficYouTube will grow 3.3x •3 Billion people 2013 faster than global connected to the•Mobile video •By 2014, over 400 fixed broadband internet—next 10will increase 66x million of the world’s data traffic. yearsfrom 2009 to Internet users will2014 access the network •Mobile traffic solely through a originating from mobile connection. tablet devices will grow 205x from Sources: Cisco VNI, Cisco IBSG, Gartner, Royal Pingdom, IDC 2010 to 2015!
  7. 7. Pervasive VideoA Market Transition Web Video Pervasive Web Pervasive VideoMarket Transition (start: 1995–achieved: 2000) (start: 2010)Business Disruption Virtualized Transactions Virtualized ServicesNew Businesses eCommerce eHealth, eEducation, etc.Smarter Endpoints Java, Flash, HTML-5 Medianet Service Interface (MSI) Web Services Media ServicesNew Shared Infrastructure (web-servers, application (media transformation, recording, acceleration, load Balancers, etc.) streaming, intercompany, etc.) 50% of Internet traffic after 5 90% of Internet traffic after 3Network Impact years years (forecast)*Architecture Service Oriented Architecture Medianet *Visual Networking Index, Cisco Systems 2010
  8. 8. Innovative TechnologiesThe Potential for Growth is Still Huge Tablet & Smartphone Users vs. Other Markets 8000 74.1% 7000 6898 penetration 6000 5113 5000 18.4% 4000 penetration Installed Base 5.7% (Millions) 3000 2000 penetration 2000 1270 1000 1000 600 513 555 394 0 Smartphones/Tablets will pass PC shipments next year Source: RBC Capital Markets
  11. 11. Cisco’s Innovation Strategy: DisruptionJump on Market Inflection Points Video Virtual Mobile Audio+Text Dedicated Packet Fixed Switched Routed Circuit Shared Bridged WAN LAN VOICE CONNECTIVITY INFRA COLLABORATION Time
  12. 12. Disruption: Technology x Business Model Business Model Hosted & Employee Workplace User Pay per Use Empowerment Flexibility Contribution Rich Internet • Software as a Applications Service • Cloud • Desktop Virtualization Computing VirtualizationTechnology • Rich Media Video • YouTube Collaboration • IP Wireless • Mobility Communications Consumer • Consumerization Electronics
  13. 13. Incubate New TechnologiesBusiness Models & Processes TelePresence, Partner w/ Other Companies IP Telephony, Network AdmissionLinksys, Wireless, ControlWebEx, Quad, (Microsoft,NetSolve Pulse Symantec, others)Acquisitions Design New Products CRS-3,140+ Acquisitions Spin in Investments IOS XR, Andiamo ASR, Nexus 1986: AGS 1993: Cisco 7000 2010: Carrier Routing multi-protocol router Series Router System (CSR)-3
  14. 14. From… To…PC Multiple DevicesDocuments Rich MediaIntranet ExtranetSearch Information Finds You
  15. 15. • Meetings• Training / Education• Safety & Security• Events• Advertising• Customer / Patient Interaction• Organizational Communications
  16. 16. Video and Cloud and Wired-Wireless Collaboration Virtualization UCS Express TrustSec Medianet Application Velocity Virtual Desktop Services WebEx on ASR 4G WAN Optimization S/W Redundancy (ASR)Cisco ISR G2 Cisco ASR 1000 Smart Install EnergyWise Scalability to 360 Gbps (ASR 1013) 40-Gbps ESP (ASR)
  17. 17. Start hereConsolidation Virtualization Automation Utility Market Intercloud Private Clouds Unified Computing Unified FabricData Center Networking
  18. 18. Service Delivery Platform [SDP] (for S+CC) Videoscape (for SP Video) Medianet(for Ent Video) Devices & Applications Management Security Network Services (for Media, Collaboration and more) Network Infrastructure
  19. 19.  Video and voice Data security and compliance  Interactivity Business continuity / agility  Mobility Reduced TCO  Real time, high quality experience Standardized IT experience, customizable user experience  Range of devices IT Standardization Rich Media Experience
  20. 20. Cisco VXI – Virtual Experience InfrastructureVirtualized End-to-End System Virtualized Virtualization-Aware Virtualized Data Center Borderless Network Collaborative Workspace Cisco Collaboration Applications MS Office Branch Cisco Clients Microsoft OS CDN Desktop Virtualization Software Cius Business Tablets Hypervisor Si WAAS Virtual ISR Access Unified CM switching Cisco Virtualization w/PoE Experience Clients Nexus Thin Client Ecosystem Virtual WAAS Quad ACE
  21. 21. Connected Virtual Offices After:Before: Cisco Virtual Office FACTS Cisco has over 25,000 employees using the Cisco Virtual Office solution in 70 different countries Employees typically work 3 days at home and are 28% more productive Cisco employees avoid an average of 58.2 commuting KMs per day working at home – i.e. 227,000,000 driving KMs avoided a year Cisco employees reduce auto emissions by 63,400 tons of CO2 annually
  22. 22.  Creates an environment similar to a visit to a doctor or health specialist  Overcomes doctor scarcity in remote areas  Enables patients to travel less and have more frequent doctor interaction  Useful for initial assessment and maintenanceCombines state-of-the-art audio and video and medical information to provide remotemedical services securely
  23. 23. • David Suzukis 75th Virtual Birthday Event• 16,000 students in 170+ schools participated in Telepresence with One Touch Webex• David on Telepresence, Schools on Webex HQ Video• Children in schools asked David questions over video• Opportunity to bring scientists, doctors, astronauts and others into the classroom and take students on virtual field trips
  24. 24. • Unified Command & Control• Common Operating Picture• Mobility and Rich Media• Situational Awareness• Collaboration – Any Device – Any Network – Any Organization – Any Media
  25. 25. The Next 5 Years… Connected Online Video Biometrics Healthcare Education Analytics 3D IP TV Events Virtual Transportation Storage gaming Desktop
  26. 26. Sensing Computing Energy Mobility Video Collaboration Voice Data