Ten in Ten
Ten Technology Trends that
Will Change the World in Ten Years
Dave Evans
Cisco’s Chief Futurist and Chief Technologist for Cisco
Internet Business Solutions Group (IBSG)
CiscoLive
July 12, 2011

The Ten…
Trends and implications
1. The Internet of Things
2. The Zettaflood Is Coming
3. Wisdom of the Cloud
4. The Next Net
5. The World Is Flat and So Is Your Technology
6. The Power of Power
7. It’s All About You
8. The Next Dimension
9. Another Family Tree
10. You…Only Better
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011

1
Internet of Things:
First Evolution of the Internet

The Internet of Things Is Already Here
World Population: 6.3 Billion 6.8 Billion 7.2 Billion 7.6 Billion
Connected Devices: 500 Million 12.5 Billion 25 Billion 50 Billion
More
connected
devices
than people
Connected Devices 0.08 1.84 3.47 6.58
Per Person
2003 2010 2015 2020
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011

New Internet Inhabitants
What do trees, cows, shoes, and your body have in common?
This tree has 3,000 Cow transmits
Connected shoe
followers…do you? 200 MB per year
Asthma inhaler
cross-referenced
with environmental /
weather data Proteus chip transmits
data from your stomach
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Sparked, 2010; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011

IPv6: Connectivity Without Meaningful Limits
52,000 trillion trillion 100 addresses for 4.8 trillion addresses
addresses per every atom on the for every star in the
person earth’s surface known universe
IPv4 addresses: 4,294,967,296
IPv6 addresses: 340,282,366,920,938,463,463,374,607,431,768,211,456
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006–2011; Steve Leibson, Computer History Museum; CNN

The Opportunity:
Turning Data into Wisdom
More
Important
Wisdom
Knowledge
Information
Data
Less
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
Important

2
The Zettaflood Is Coming

By 2015, 1 Zettabyte of Data
Will Flow over the Internet
 One zettabyte = stack of books from
Earth to Pluto 20 times (72 billion miles)
 Increase of 540,000 times from 2003;
more than 90% from video
 If an 11 oz. cup of coffee equals
1 gigabyte, then 1 zettabyte
would have the same volume
of the Great Wall of China
Source: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2011

3
Wisdom of the Cloud

More and More Data in the Cloud
Cloud
Virtualization
Web
Client Server
Minicomputer
Mainframe
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
 By 2020, one-third of all data will live in or pass through the cloud
 Global cloud services revenue will jump 20% per year
 IT spending on innovation and cloud computing could top $1 trillion by 2014
Creating new capabilities…
Sources: Lew Tucker, Cloud CTO, Cisco, 2011; EMC, 2010; IDC, 2010

Watson Will Improve Our Health
What if Watson were a cloud service?
From Jeopardy winner… …to healthcare provider
IBM’s Watson supercomputer defeats Watson’s ability to answer questions
humans in final Jeopardy match makes it ideal for doctors to improve
patient care
Source: IBM, 2011

4
The Next Net

Recent Networking Advances
 February 2011: Ericsson and Sant’Anna demonstrate
448 GB per second over fiber (20 HD movies / second)
 March 2011: Northwestern University researchers develop new
switching device to usher in ultrafast quantum Internet
 April 2011: World record set by sending more than 100 terabits of
information per second through a single optical fiber
 May 2011: Researchers set new record for rate of data transfer using
a single laser at 26 terabits per second
All developments in 4-month period
Sources: American Physical Society, 2011; BBC, 2011

5
The World Is Flat…
So Is Your Technology

From Near Time to Real Time
Everyone becomes a reporter
+ + =
Broadband Anywhere,
anytime Internet TV
wireless
production
In 10 years,
anyone will broadcast anywhere to anybody on any device
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011

6
The Power of Power

Solar Is a Viable Solution
 Sandia produces solar cells
with 100 times less material /
same efficiency
 MIT technology allows
windows to generate power
without blocking view
 June 2011: inkjet printer produces
solar cells with 90 percent decrease
in waste at significantly lower costs
Oregon State University researchers
develop novel method to produce solar
cells using inkjet printer
Source: BBC News, June 2011

7
It’s All About You

Brain-Machine Interfaces:
The Ultimate Integration
February 2009: University of Toronto scientists invent machine
that determines what you’re thinking (80% accuracy)
June 2009: University of Southampton demonstrates brain-to-
brain communication over Internet Brain-controlled prosthesis
October 2009: Toyota showcases mind-controlled wheelchair
with 95% accuracy
March 2010: University of Maryland decodes brain signals /
reconstructs into 3D hand movements
April 2010: Intel software analyzes fMRI scans to determine
what you’re thinking (90% accuracy)
July 2011: University of Western Ontario develops technology
to predict what a person is going to do before he or she does it
Mind-controlled wheelchair
Artificial brain implants expected by 2030
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Toyota; CNN; USA Today; KurzweilAI.net; wfs.org

8
The Next Dimension
Tomorrow: Anything on Demand

Additive Manufacturing (3D Printing)
 Additive manufacturing:
“The process of joining materials
to make objects from 3D model
data, usually layer upon layer.”
Printing file size approx. 1 MB
 Subtractive manufacturing
includes methodologies such as
traditional machining
Source: Stratasys, 2011

3D Printing a Gimmick? You Decide.
Dinosaur skull
Toy car
Model engine
Working bicycle
Sources: Stratasys, 2011; European Air Defense System

3D Printing: What About Us?
Developed technique to print human March 2011: Dr. Atala prints a
cells using modified inkjet printer kidney mold on stage at TED
(Proof of principle only)
Source: Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine, 2011; TED Conferences, LLC

9
Another Family Tree

Interacting with Technology: Artificial Entities
“It’s possible to make a conscious computer with superhuman
intelligence before 2020.”
Ian Pearson
Head of Futurology
British Telecommunications
 Automatic emotions,
gestures, and
responses
Emily  Speech recognition
 Text-to-speech
 Knowledge of previous
Current
Technology
encounters (memory)
Virtual Valerie  Every interaction will
be a network call
Progression of Conversational Interfaces
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2006-2011; Carnegie Mellon, 2004; Image Metrics, 2010

10
You…Only Better
Fundamental Changes

Self-Evolution of the Species
March 2010 July 2009
Retina implant restores Spanish researchers discover
vision to blind patients substance for photographic memory
October 2009
February 2010
University of Washington
Artificial retina (Argus III)
researchers develop non-invasive brain-
developed by Lawrence
computer interface (BCI) that allows a
Livermore National Labs
user to command humanoid robot
October 2009 August 2009
Italian and Swedish Wicab develops device that lets
scientists develop first blind “see" with their tongues
artificial hand with feeling
December 2009
Organovo 3D bio-printer prototype may
June 2011
print human tissues and organs
Texas Heart Institute develops
“spinning” heart (no pulse, no
April 2010
clogs, no breakdowns)
Massachusetts General Hospital in Boston
trialing artificial pancreas in 11 patients
April 2010
Scientists at Chicago’s Rush February 2010
University Medical Center find University of Michigan develops artificial foot
possible cure for skin cancer to make it easier for amputees to walk
Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Science Magazine, 2010