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Martin Geddes - Hypervoice keynote


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Martin Geddes - Hypervoice keynote

  1. 1. This presentation was given as the closing keynote at Metaswitch Forum 2012 in Orlando, FL on 4th October 2012. It solely contains the opinions of Martin Geddes, and has not been endorsed by Metaswitch. Nonetheless, many thanks to Metaswitch for the speaking opportunity. Much appreciated.Martin © 2012 Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd. Do unto others…
  2. 2. A presentation aboutHypervoice Specifically, how voice joins the constellation of web hypermedia, alongside text and images.
  3. 3. The presentation NOWstarts by looking at the past of voice, then the future,before returning to the present. Past Future
  4. 4. The present is very confusing, because we are seeing the collision of two conflicting sets ofTelco ? values and ideas. I am putting forward a hypothesis as to what CONFUSION emerges from that confusion.Web ?
  5. 5. For telcos, there is increasing dissonance between the values, beliefs and behaviours that made them successful, and the current reality.Convergence Fragmentation
  6. 6. The emphasis on interoperation, federation,standards, vertical integration NOW doesn’t fit with the reality of fragmentation of voice.
  7. 7. PSTN + PLMN + Just a featurePOTS “Public SIP of the Cloud, Interconnect System” Web and Apps + Skype + Xbox + … As is readily seen from current trends.
  8. 8. Three big future changes1. User experience Reconciliation with reality requires three big shifts.2. Business model3. Network technology
  9. 9. Let’s start with the trajectory of telcos.Telco
  10. 10. And go back to basics and the veryPAST beginning.
  11. 11. What is‘voice’
  12. 12. Talk at a distance This is both trivial and profound, as talking at a distance is subtly different in many ways to talking to those physically present.
  13. 13. “So, what do We take this everyday wonder for granted. Weyou do for a shouldn’t! So next time someone asks living?” you what you do…
  14. 14. “Work for the phone company”
  15. 15. “So, what doyou do for a living?” You can do better than that!
  16. 16. “Network equipment vendor”Sorry, even less cool!
  17. 17. Illusionist!The correct answer is that you are an illusionist.You conjure up the ghostly voice of someone from hundreds orthousands of miles away, and trickpeople into believing a real person is present. “My Daddy is an ILLUSIONIST! What’s yours?”
  18. 18. Presence This illusion has a name. It is called ‘cognitive absorption’. The guy on the left isn’t falling for the trick – he’s just rubbing his ear with a lump of plastic.
  19. 19. We’ve been performing thistrick for a long time. So long, that ‘voice’ and ‘telephony’ have become virtually synonymous.
  20. 20. When telephony was new, phone companies had toteach people what to say; anew language of etiquette.
  21. 21. Telephony has anunconscious inner language, a bit like a game of chess, with standard opening gambits, middle game and endings.
  22. 22. This book from the mid 1990s studies hundreds of calls and documents that language. “Hegemony A critical feature of telephony is the power theof the caller” caller has over the callee;both in choice of timing, and the control of subject matter when the call isanswered. There is an innate social imbalance.
  23. 23. And all these features werebuilt in a very different era, for different users, withdifferent expectations, by a very different kind of ecosystem.
  24. 24. As an example, consider thetoll free number, introduced by fiat under the old AT&T long distance regime.
  25. 25. Assumes our time is cheap… …and calls are expensive labor telephony $ A minute of labor cost less than a minute of long distance telephony. This implicitly assumes calls are expensive. After all, what else would the phone company desire!
  26. 26. Equalized between c.1982-2000 labor In c. 1982 you could telephony $ $ hire a college graduate at parity per minute with fixed-line long distance calls. By 2000, even a mobile minute was cheaper than hiring a high school graduate for 60 seconds.
  27. 27. Todaylabor telephony $ Today, labor far exceeds the cost of telephony. It is our time that is scarce, not our machinery of talk.
  28. 28. Telco social contractUniversal serviceEmergency lifelineLegal intercept However, that system left behind many critical social services and systems that need to be preserved as part of our society.
  29. 29. Telco World Service-centric Telco device Plus an extraordinarily successfulsystem that has served to connect Telco access billions of people around the Telco service world. Hurrah for telcos! Network roaming
  30. 30. So let’s roll forward to PRESENT the present.
  31. 31. Telcos exist in co-opetition with ‘over the top’ (OTT) players for services revenue.Telco World OTT WorldService-centric Experience-centric Telco device Any combination of Telco access device, access Telco service and service* Network roaming Experience roaming * Supported within any one ecosystem
  32. 32. Corrosion
  33. 33. ARBITRAGE COMPETITION REGULATION The three horsemen of the telepocalypse…
  34. 34. The temptation is to retreat to an undergound safe place in Nebraska. This is not a good long-term lifestyle choice.
  35. 35. Off-net apps are the new ‘mobile coverage’ CLOUD CLOUDACCESS SERVICECOVERAGE COVERAGE So if you can’t beat them, join them.
  36. 36. However, the Internet cannot and never will carry society’s real-time communications needs. It is fundamentally unsuited to the job.Telco World Telco-OTT World OTT WorldService-centric Product-centric Experience-centric Telco device Mixture of telco and Any combination of Telco access 3rd party devices, device, access Telco service access and services and service* Network roaming Experience roaming Which is giving rise to ? * Supported within any one ecosystem a hybrid model of service delivery.
  37. 37. NGN Fixed Recreating a VoIP PSTN4G Mobile Voice over LTE =Telephony over LTE So telcos are left in a ‘groundhog day’ foreverre-creating telephony, rather than moving forwards.
  38. 38. How do I do‘cloud voice’ So the telco challenge is tofind a model of ‘cloud voice’ that works both technically and economically.
  39. 39. Let’s go look at the parallel evolution of the web and hypermedia. Web
  40. 40. Again, we’ll go right back toPAST the beginning.
  41. 41. “What a computer is to me is it’s the most remarkable tool thatwe’ve ever come up with, and it’s the equivalent of abicycle for our minds.” Computer folk start with a different – Steve Jobs mind-set. Networks aren’t about telephones and telegraphs, but about connecting computers.
  42. 42. Ideas And specifically, they see computers as effort amplifiers for spreading ideas.
  43. 43. HYPERLINK 1.0 Documents get URLs doc → doc …A ‘PLACE’ METAPHOR And as ideas naturally areexpressed via documents, these are amplified via hyperlinks.
  44. 44. Documents Homepages Blogs Which gave rise to this world. (With blogs being a stepping stone to the next phase of the Web’s evolution.)
  45. 45. WEB 1.0 Hypertext So the first edition of the Web was based on hypertext, and had minimal impact on telcosbar creating demand for dial-up …MINIMAL IMPACT ON VOICE and broadband access. …SOME IMPACT ON FAX
  46. 46. HYPERLINK 2.0 Events get URLs doc → event …A ‘STREAM’ METAPHORThe world moved on. We came up with a new metaphor. Thegranularity of linking dropped. We started recording and pointing to individual events.
  47. 47. Tags Status @pointers Images updates #tags There was an explosion of use and innovation based on this new stream metaphor.
  48. 48. WEB 2.0 “Social web” Which we gave a name to, as it amplified our ability to relate.
  49. 49. WEB 2.0 Hypermessaging Because in retrospect we hadinvented a new hypermedium. …SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON SMS
  50. 50. Thoughts Which amplified individual thoughts.
  51. 51. PRESENTSo let’s roll forward to the present.
  52. 52.  Add new binary medium to browsers using a The web folk are just as stuck as place metaphor the telcos in accommodating voice! Just in a different way. Assume it “just works” on the Internet Everyone will figure out how to use it
  53. 53. With their current approach being useful, but neither necessary nor sufficient to make voice a native of hypermedia.This standard lets web browserssend and receive real-time audio and video.
  54. 54. How do I do‘cloud voice’So the same question applies to the web – how to bring voice into ourintegrated online experience, rather than existing as a parallel universe.
  55. 55. And that is why we find ourselves in aTelco very confusing place. CONFUSIONWeb
  56. 56. So how can we resolve that confusion as we plunge into the future? FUTURE
  57. 57. “Cloud text”?HypertextA simple observation points the way. Whilst we talk of ‘cloud voice’, we don’t talk of ‘cloud text’. It’s ‘hypertext’.
  58. 58. “Cloud voice”?Hypervoice So the resolution is to make voiceinto a native hypermedium, through understanding its intrinsic linking properties.
  59. 59. VOICE, WEB VOICE, HYPERVOICE That means transcending the limits of ‘web voice’ as currently conceived, and instead moving to hypervoice.
  60. 60. HYPERVOICELinks what we say to what we do
  61. 61. Just as we now routinely digitallycapture our words and images, wewill capture our voices. Voice need no longer be ephemeral.
  62. 62. Memories Which makes hypervoice an amplifier for our working memories.
  63. 63. Everything linked by time Notes you take Slides you show Screens you share Messages you send Web pages you browse Documents you open Customer records you view Sales opportunities you edit Trouble tickets you close
  64. 64. WEB 3.0 Hypervoice …TRANSCENDS TELEPHONY
  65. 65. HYPERLINK 3.0 Voice gestures get URLs event → event …A ‘TEMPORAL’ METAPHOR The web gets a new linking structure, one based on time. Humans aren’t nearly as intuitive at managingtemporal metaphors as they are at spatial ones.
  66. 66. Magician!So hypervoice upgrades us from illusionists to magicians. “Daddy – you’re aMAGICIAN too! How cool!”
  67. 67. As we can time travel aseasily as we space travel.
  68. 68. Why should you care? Your 20th century network voice product has to compete against21st century cloud rivals
  69. 69. Three big future changes1. User experience2. Business model3. Network technology
  70. 70. For example, computers will help us to rendezvous. The phone ‘call’ will become the ‘offer’ or ‘request’.“Hegemony of the caller”
  71. 71. Audio will be recorded locally as well as send in real-time, given ‘audio make-up’, and the pristine result uploaded in perfect replica.
  72. 72. Three big future changes1. User experience2. Business model3. Network technology
  73. 73. Just as the move from text to hypertext gave rise to Google-like business models that remove friction, hypervoice will enable new disruptive revenue models. Conversation Gap ENTERPRISES PUBLICThe money will be in making ordinary, everyday business interactions more efficient, effective and secure – internally and externally.
  74. 74. Example: FonoloAn example today is Fonolo, whichenables hypervoice deep-links into IVRs, using your smartphone.
  75. 75. Three big future changes1. User experience2. Business model3. Network technology Networks are just large distributed supercomputers; the wires and radios are the processor interconnects. But you knew that anyway…
  76. 76. DEDICATED NETWORK Previously we have had - the fixed/mobile voice networks(effective and efficient, but inflexible) - the Internet (efficient and flexible, but ineffective for real-time)
  77. 77. Monoservice network These are single class ofservice networks. Kind of likethe networking equivalent ofblack and white photography.
  78. 78. IMS + SBC WORLD These are the kinds oftechnologies telcos use todeliver voice services over Internet Protocol We are building a world that is effective and flexible, if somewhat inefficient.
  79. 79. Monoservice overlays So we’ve now got multiple shades of sepia.We do this via isolating flows using overlays.
  80. 80. CLOUD WORLDThe future will require us to learn how to multiplex everything together much better.
  81. 81. Polyservice networksWhich means multiple classesof service; possibly even one unique to every flow! Kodachrome networks!
  82. 82. Effective Flexible Efficient Because we will need all three properties to deliver a completely unified real-time world of distributed computing.
  84. 84. Technological Revolutions & Financial Capital Carlota Perez Electricity, Steel & Heavy Engineering IT & Telecoms Steam, Coal, Oil, Petrochemicals ? Biotech, Iron, Railways & Automobiles Nanotech1770 2012
  85. 85. The Turning Point Then a bubble and financial collapse,Each revolution has a social disorder. period of around 70years where we workout how stuff works. Technology becomes modular, reliable and invisible.Purpose-for-fitness Fitness-for-purposeExample: farms bought Example: yourone motor, and lots of Finally there is a golden age, toothbrush has a adapters. as society re-organises micro-motor. around the technology and reaps the benefits.Transistor in 1940s.
  86. 86. The Turning Point Voice as Voice asnetwork service cloud function Voice becomes as invisible and innate to your online experience as the motor in your toothbrush is to your waking-up experience.
  87. 87. Focuses on containing failure modes of applications. What telcos have always PackagedTelco done. Cloud Services CONFUSIONWeb Experimental systems “Libreville” that trial new success modes. Even wilder than the Internet is today.
  88. 88. NOWBack to the present…Past Future
  89. 89. Universal Service Fund, Inter-carrier Compensation, shutting down the old fixed network… USF, ICC, PSTN transition…?Same issues in 19th Roads changed the model, obsoleted these century. issues. Our roads are internet, cloud, cognitive radios, community networks. Railroads vs roads The telecoms regulator largely existsThe railroad regulator to perpetuate problems it wasis out of business, the invented to resolve a century ago. railroads are not.
  90. 90. Focus on thecustomernot the regulator Else you’ll go down together.
  91. 91. What do you need to do?1. Understand hypervoice future.2. Get cloudy for service delivery.3. Buy network flexibility.4. Import inventive services.5. Export successful services.
  92. 92. Free newsletter www.martingeddes.comNew user experiences, business models andnetwork technologies.
  93. 93. Need this quality of thinking and Thank You communication inside your organisation?Contact Martin Geddes