COVID-19 Update (Summary): October 11, 2020

1. Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanford’s. My goal is to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code is
available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. The daily analysis are available at https://1drv.ms/u/s!AuOyHP_aTIy7rowrt2AjGpWm_frnEQ?e=KBcNbh.
You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isn’t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
• USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
• USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
• USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
• Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
• Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
• Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
• Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
• Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
• Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log 𝑐𝑢𝑚𝑢𝑙𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑣𝑒 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 =
𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 + 𝑚𝑎𝑥𝑖𝑚𝑢𝑚 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 − 𝑐𝑢𝑟𝑟𝑒𝑛𝑡 𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑒𝑠 1 − 𝑒−𝑘 𝑡 . This is a naïve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu

2. 2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual
(points)
/
Predicted
(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases
/
Day
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterday’s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterday’s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)

3. Worldwide
43,465,346
1,213,075
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-10-11
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 37,179,577 (304,060) -- Deaths: 1,072,290 (4,266) -- Case Mortality: 2.9% -- Daily Change: +1.3% Cases, +0.4% Deaths
2020-10-11 Summary: 3

4. USA
8,563,636
231,661
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-10-11
Mother's
Day
Memorial
Day
July
4th
July
15,
2020
Labor
Day
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 7,717,932 (54,639) -- Deaths: 214,370 (618) -- Case Mortality: 2.8% -- Daily Change: +2.3% Cases, +0.9% Deaths
2020-10-11 Summary: 4

5. Western Europe
4,109,914
169,987
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Belgium, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands, Luxembourg, and the UK (Population = 344MM)
Western Europe projection as of 2020-10-11
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 3,140,589 (32,365) -- Deaths: 163,326 (164) -- Case Mortality: 5.2% -- Daily Change: +3.5% Cases, +1.4% Deaths
2020-10-11 Summary: 5

6. Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths
between US & Europe
Cases
Deaths
54,639
32,365
618
164
3
10
30
100
300
1,000
3,000
10,000
30,000
100,000
Date
Daily
Cases
and
Deaths
Location
USA (318MM)
Western Europe (344MM)
Log plot of 7 day average
Comparison of COVID-19 Cases & Deaths between US & Europe
The numbers on the right are yesterday's figures, and will differ a bit from the plotted rolling mean
2020-10-11 Summary: 6

7. Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble
129,405
2,366
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Cumulative
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, and Vietnam (Population = 328 MM)
Non-authoritarian Asian ensemble projection as of 2020-10-11
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
Cases
and
Deaths
/
Day
Cases: 118,311 (757) -- Deaths: 2,152 (5) -- Case Mortality: 1.8% -- Daily Change: +1.0% Cases, -3.6% Deaths
2020-10-11 Summary: 7

8. Worldwide cases
USA
India
Brazil
Russia
Colombia
Argentina
Spain
Peru
Mexico
France
South
Africa
United
Kingdom
Iran
Chile
Iraq
Bangladesh
Italy
Saudi
Arabia
Philippines
Turkey
Indonesia
Germany
Pakistan
Israel
Ukraine
Canada
Netherlands
Belgium
Romania
Morocco
Ecuador
Bolivia
Poland
Dominican
Republic
Czech
Republic
Kazakhstan
Nepal
Egypt
Sweden
Guatemala
China
Japan
Portugal
Ethiopia
Honduras
Belarus
Venezuela
Uzbekistan
Switzerland
Nigeria
Austria
Algeria
Paraguay
Kyrgyzstan
Ghana
Azerbaijan
Libya
Kenya
Afghanistan
Hungary
Serbia
Denmark
Tunisia
El
Salvador
Australia
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
cases
to
date
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-10-11 Summary: 8

9. Worldwide cases
Israel
Chile
Peru
Brazil
USA
Argentina
Spain
Colombia
Belgium
Bolivia
South
Africa
Iraq
Dominican
Republic
Saudi
Arabia
France
Czech
Republic
Sweden
Honduras
Netherlands
Ecuador
United
Kingdom
Russia
Kyrgyzstan
Belarus
Portugal
Switzerland
Iran
Guatemala
Mexico
Kazakhstan
Paraguay
Romania
Austria
Libya
India
Italy
Denmark
Ukraine
Canada
Azerbaijan
Serbia
Turkey
Morocco
El
Salvador
Germany
Jordan
Nepal
Hungary
Slovakia
Philippines
Bulgaria
Poland
Venezuela
Tunisia
Bangladesh
Finland
Uzbekistan
Greece
Ghana
Pakistan
Algeria
Afghanistan
Tajikistan
Indonesia
Zambia
USA
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 in 25
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
cases
to
date
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-10-11 Summary: 9

10. Average new cases over past 7 days
Israel
Czech
Republic
Belgium
Argentina
Netherlands
United
Kingdom
Spain
Jordan
France
Colombia
Slovakia
USA
Tunisia
Brazil
Austria
Libya
Peru
Romania
Paraguay
Iraq
Ukraine
Nepal
Hungary
Switzerland
Chile
Portugal
Poland
Russia
Honduras
Morocco
Denmark
Mexico
Canada
Italy
Ecuador
India
Dominican
Republic
Iran
Sweden
Bulgaria
Kyrgyzstan
Guatemala
Belarus
Germany
Finland
South
Africa
Greece
Bolivia
Myanmar
Venezuela
Philippines
Turkey
Azerbaijan
Indonesia
Malaysia
Serbia
Uzbekistan
Saudi
Arabia
El
Salvador
Angola
Ethiopia
Bangladesh
Sri
Lanka
Kenya
Zambia
USA
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 in 2,500
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,429
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Average
cases
/
day
Average new cases over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-10-11 Summary: 10

11. Worldwide deaths
USA
Brazil
India
Mexico
United
Kingdom
Italy
Peru
Spain
France
Iran
Colombia
Argentina
Russia
South
Africa
Chile
Ecuador
Indonesia
Belgium
Iraq
Canada
Germany
Turkey
Bolivia
Netherlands
Pakistan
Philippines
Egypt
Sweden
Bangladesh
Romania
Saudi
Arabia
Ukraine
China
Guatemala
Poland
Morocco
Honduras
Dominican
Republic
Switzerland
Portugal
Israel
Algeria
Kazakhstan
Japan
Afghanistan
Ethiopia
Nigeria
Kyrgyzstan
Paraguay
Czech
Republic
Hungary
Australia
Bulgaria
El
Salvador
Belarus
Austria
Sudan
Serbia
Kenya
Venezuela
Denmark
Libya
Nepal
Azerbaijan
Myanmar
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
deaths
to
date
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-10-11 Summary: 11

12. Worldwide deaths
Peru
Belgium
Bolivia
Ecuador
Spain
Chile
Brazil
Mexico
United
Kingdom
USA
Sweden
Italy
Colombia
Argentina
France
Iran
Netherlands
South
Africa
Honduras
Iraq
Canada
Switzerland
Israel
Guatemala
Romania
Dominican
Republic
Kyrgyzstan
Portugal
Saudi
Arabia
Russia
Paraguay
Bulgaria
El
Salvador
Denmark
Germany
Turkey
Kazakhstan
Ukraine
Austria
Serbia
Libya
Hungary
India
Czech
Republic
Belarus
Poland
Azerbaijan
Morocco
Egypt
Finland
Philippines
Algeria
Afghanistan
Indonesia
Tunisia
Australia
Greece
Pakistan
Bangladesh
Sudan
Jordan
Zambia
Nicaragua
Venezuela
Haiti
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 in 833
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Total
deaths
to
date
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-10-11 Summary: 12

13. Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Argentina
Ecuador
Mexico
Israel
Colombia
Iran
Bolivia
Paraguay
Brazil
Chile
Czech
Republic
Peru
Spain
Romania
USA
Tunisia
Jordan
Iraq
South
Africa
Honduras
Ukraine
Hungary
Belgium
Poland
Russia
Morocco
Libya
Netherlands
United
Kingdom
Portugal
Guatemala
Bulgaria
Saudi
Arabia
France
India
Philippines
Austria
Turkey
Canada
Dominican
Republic
Myanmar
El
Salvador
Belarus
Greece
Italy
Indonesia
Nepal
Kyrgyzstan
Denmark
Angola
Venezuela
Switzerland
Azerbaijan
Serbia
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Slovakia
Bangladesh
Germany
Uzbekistan
Egypt
Kenya
Syria
Ethiopia
Malaysia
USA
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 in 83,333
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Average
deaths
/
day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-10-11 Summary: 13

14. CV for Cases and Deaths
CIV
SWE
KGZ
MWI ITA
SOM
CMR
YEM
BEL
THA GBR
ZWE DEU
PAK FIN
NGA CHE
MLI
AFG SRB
BEN
COD
CAN NLD
GHA FRA
DNK
NIC
HTI ZMB
SEN LKA
KAZ EGY AZE PER
GIN BFA
SSD DOM USA
TJK ESP
PRT
DZA
AUS ECU
CHL
MDG AUT
JPN
SLV
BOL TCD
ZAF GTM
BRA
BGD CUB
SAU MYS
BLR MEX
KOR RUS COL
HND IRQ
IRN BGR
KEN
TUR ETH
UZB ROU
PNG
TGO POL
IDN
IND
PHL
RWA SYR
VEN GRC HUN
UKR
MAR UGA
AGO SVK
NPL
LBY
ISR
PRY
MOZ CZE
ARG
TUN
JOR
MMR
0.001
0.010
0.100
1.000
0.01
0.01 0.10 1.00
Cases CV
Deaths
CV
Coefficient of variation for cases and deaths as of 2020-10-11
CV calculated over last 28 days
2020-10-11 Summary: 14

15. Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
US
Case
Rate
Mortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-10-11 Summary: 15

16. Change in New Cases per Day
Daily cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
Daily cases by state as of 2020-10-11
2020-10-11 Summary: 16

17. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
Percent
of
Peak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-10-11 Summary: 17

18. Change in Deaths per Day
Daily deaths are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
Daily deaths by state as of 2020-10-11
2020-10-11 Summary: 18

19. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
Percent
of
Peak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-10-11 Summary: 19

20. Change in cases vs. change in deaths over
last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-6 -3 0 3 6
Change in cases (%/day)
Change
in
deaths
(%/day)
Change in cases vs. change in deaths over last 14 days as of 2020-10-11
Size is proportional total cases per capita
2020-10-11 Summary: 20

21. Total US COVID-19 Cases
California
Texas
Florida
New
York
Georgia
Illinois
North
Carolina
Arizona
New
Jersey
Tennessee
Pennsylvania
Louisiana
Ohio
Alabama
Virginia
South
Carolina
Michigan
Wisconsin
Missouri
Massachusetts
Indiana
Maryland
Minnesota
Mississippi
Iowa
Oklahoma
Washington
Arkansas
Nevada
Utah
Kentucky
Colorado
Kansas
Connecticut
Nebraska
Idaho
Oregon
New
Mexico
South
Dakota
North
Dakota
Rhode
Island
Delaware
Montana
West
Virginia
District
of
Columbia
Hawaii
Alaska
New
Hampshire
Wyoming
Maine
Vermont
0
250,000
500,000
750,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
cases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.66, p governor: 0.99. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 21

22. Total US COVID-19 Cases
Louisiana
Mississippi
North
Dakota
Florida
Alabama
South
Dakota
Iowa
Tennessee
Georgia
Arizona
Arkansas
South
Carolina
Texas
Nevada
Nebraska
Idaho
Utah
Wisconsin
Illinois
Oklahoma
Rhode
Island
New
York
New
Jersey
Missouri
Delaware
District
of
Columbia
Kansas
North
Carolina
Maryland
California
Massachusetts
Indiana
Minnesota
Virginia
Kentucky
Montana
Connecticut
New
Mexico
Michigan
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Colorado
Alaska
Wyoming
Washington
West
Virginia
Hawaii
Oregon
New
Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 100
1 in 50
1 in 33
1 in 25
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Cases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.029, p governor: 0.015. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 22

23. Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Montana
Wisconsin
Utah
Nebraska
Idaho
Iowa
Missouri
Oklahoma
Wyoming
Arkansas
Tennessee
Kentucky
Alaska
Mississippi
Minnesota
Indiana
Alabama
Kansas
Illinois
South
Carolina
North
Carolina
Nevada
New
Mexico
Texas
Rhode
Island
Delaware
Colorado
Virginia
Michigan
Ohio
Georgia
West
Virginia
Florida
Maryland
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Arizona
New
Jersey
District
of
Columbia
Massachusetts
California
Oregon
New
York
Washington
Hawaii
Connecticut
New
Hampshire
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
New
Cases
/
Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0013, p governor: 0.018. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 23

24. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
New
York
Texas
California
New
Jersey
Florida
Massachusetts
Illinois
Pennsylvania
Georgia
Michigan
Arizona
Louisiana
Ohio
Connecticut
Maryland
Indiana
North
Carolina
South
Carolina
Virginia
Mississippi
Tennessee
Alabama
Missouri
Washington
Minnesota
Colorado
Nevada
Arkansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Kentucky
Rhode
Island
Oklahoma
New
Mexico
Kansas
Delaware
District
of
Columbia
Oregon
Nebraska
Utah
Idaho
New
Hampshire
West
Virginia
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Montana
Hawaii
Maine
Alaska
Vermont
Wyoming
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Deaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.082, p governor: 0.47. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 24

25. Total US COVID-19 Deaths
New
Jersey
New
York
Massachusetts
Connecticut
Louisiana
Rhode
Island
Mississippi
District
of
Columbia
Arizona
Illinois
Michigan
Florida
Georgia
South
Carolina
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Texas
Indiana
Alabama
Nevada
Arkansas
Iowa
North
Dakota
New
Mexico
Ohio
California
Tennessee
Missouri
Virginia
Minnesota
Colorado
North
Carolina
New
Hampshire
South
Dakota
Washington
Idaho
Kentucky
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Kansas
Wisconsin
West
Virginia
Montana
Utah
Oregon
Hawaii
Maine
Wyoming
Vermont
Alaska
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Total
Deaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.072, p governor: 0.58. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 25

26. Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Arkansas
Missouri
Tennessee
Mississippi
Florida
Kansas
South
Carolina
Georgia
Iowa
Texas
Alabama
Montana
Louisiana
Indiana
Idaho
Hawaii
Illinois
Wisconsin
Nevada
North
Carolina
West
Virginia
Massachusetts
Nebraska
California
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Kentucky
Rhode
Island
Delaware
Utah
Michigan
District
of
Columbia
New
Hampshire
Colorado
New
Mexico
Arizona
Oregon
Ohio
Maryland
Washington
New
York
Connecticut
Alaska
New
Jersey
Wyoming
Maine
Vermont
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 in 83,333
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths
/
Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.048, p governor: 0.026. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 26

27. Daily testing trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Daily
testing
from
min
to
max
Daily testing trends from min to max
Line = Friedman's supersmoother
2020-10-11 Summary: 27

28. Change in daily tests over past 14 days
Missouri
District
of
Columbia
South
Dakota
Mississippi
Delaware
Arizona
New
Jersey
Oklahoma
Nebraska
Rhode
Island
Michigan
Utah
Washington
New
York
Iowa
Wisconsin
Pennsylvania
North
Carolina
Oregon
Georgia
Indiana
West
Virginia
Virginia
Idaho
North
Dakota
Illinois
Nevada
Maryland
Wyoming
Alabama
New
Hampshire
Montana
Alaska
New
Mexico
Minnesota
Tennessee
Vermont
South
Carolina
Florida
Ohio
Colorado
Kansas
Massachusetts
California
Texas
Connecticut
Kentucky
Maine
Louisiana
Arkansas
Hawaii
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
daily
tests
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in daily tests over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.12, p governor: 0.62. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 28

29. Percent Tested
Alaska
New
York
District
of
Columbia
Louisiana
Connecticut
Illinois
New
Mexico
Tennessee
New
Jersey
California
Michigan
Arkansas
Maine
Montana
West
Virginia
Massachusetts
Rhode
Island
Kentucky
Oklahoma
North
Dakota
North
Carolina
Delaware
Ohio
Georgia
Wisconsin
South
Carolina
Utah
Maryland
Minnesota
Vermont
Mississippi
Washington
Virginia
Nebraska
Iowa
Florida
Alabama
South
Dakota
Nevada
Missouri
Texas
Indiana
Hawaii
New
Hampshire
Arizona
Kansas
Wyoming
Idaho
Oregon
Colorado
Pennsylvania
0
20
40
60
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Percent
Tested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.026, p governor: 0.088. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 29

30. Percent of Positive COVID Tests
North
Dakota
South
Dakota
Idaho
Iowa
Wisconsin
Wyoming
Kansas
Nevada
Indiana
Utah
Alabama
Nebraska
Missouri
Montana
Florida
Hawaii
Oklahoma
Minnesota
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Arkansas
Kentucky
Texas
Mississippi
Oregon
Arizona
Tennessee
Delaware
North
Carolina
Georgia
Maryland
South
Carolina
Virginia
Rhode
Island
New
Mexico
Alaska
Illinois
Massachusetts
New
Hampshire
Louisiana
Ohio
Michigan
West
Virginia
Washington
California
New
Jersey
Connecticut
District
of
Columbia
Vermont
New
York
Maine
0
10
20
30
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Percent
of
Positive
Tests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0015, p governor: 0.033. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 30

31. Percent Positive Trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
1
10
100
1
10
100
1
10
100
1
10
100
1
10
100
1
10
100
1
10
100
1
10
100
Percent
Positive
(log
scale)
Percent Positive Trends
2020-10-11 Summary: 31

32. Change in tests vs. change in positive tests
over last 14 days
AL
AK
AZ
AR CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL IN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-10
-5
0
5
10
-6 -3 0 3 6
Change in tests (%/day)
Change
in
positive
tests
(%/day)
Change in tests vs. change in positive tests over last 14 days as of 2020-10-11
Size is proportional daily deaths per capita over the past 7 days
2020-10-11 Summary: 32

33. Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since February
Alaska
Arkansas
Kansas
Montana
Nebraska
North
Dakota
Oklahoma
West
Virginia
Missouri
Iowa
Wyoming
Wisconsin
South
Dakota
Kentucky
Utah
North
Carolina
Idaho
Minnesota
Tennessee
Indiana
Ohio
Oregon
New
Mexico
Virginia
Georgia
Alabama
Mississippi
Nevada
South
Carolina
Washington
Illinois
Hawaii
Colorado
California
Texas
Rhode
Island
Delaware
Louisiana
Pennsylvania
Maryland
District
of
Columbia
Florida
Michigan
Arizona
New
Hampshire
Massachusetts
Maine
New
Jersey
Connecticut
New
York
Vermont
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations
(%
of
peak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.0072, p governor: 0.055. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 33

34. Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizations
from
min
to
max
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-10-11 Summary: 34

35. Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
Wyoming
North
Dakota
Montana
New
Mexico
Connecticut
Delaware
Michigan
New
Jersey
Colorado
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
New
York
Kansas
Idaho
Arizona
Minnesota
Nebraska
Tennessee
South
Dakota
Ohio
Indiana
Oklahoma
Kentucky
Iowa
Utah
Massachusetts
Maryland
Alaska
Missouri
Illinois
Arkansas
Rhode
Island
North
Carolina
Nevada
Texas
Oregon
New
Hampshire
District
of
Columbia
Virginia
Alabama
Mississippi
Louisiana
Florida
West
Virginia
California
South
Carolina
Washington
Georgia
Hawaii
Maine
Vermont
-20
-10
0
10
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Change
in
hospitalizations
(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
a
a
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
p masks as of July 20, 2020: 0.62, p governor: 0.37. NB: association != causation.
2020-10-11 Summary: 35

36. CV for Cases and Deaths
FL TX MA
OK WA NC NM
KY
MS
CA SC GA
DE IL NJ
TN MN
MI MT
PA
IA
WV CT IN
LA
MD OR ID
HI AR OH RI
DC NE
AL NV
AZ
KS
CO NY
VA
MO
WI
ND SD
ME
UT
AK
WY NH
0.01
0.01
0.10
1.00
0.01
0.01 0.10 1.00
Cases CV
Deaths
CV
Coefficient of variation for cases and deaths as of 2020-10-11
CV calculated over last 28 days
2020-10-11 Summary: 36

37. Change in New Cases per Day
Direction
Increasing > +2%
Increasing between +0.5% and +2%
No Change (-0.5% to +0.5%)
Decreasing between -0.5% and -2%
Decreasing > -2%
NA
Trends by county as of 2020-10-11
NA = Inadequate data
2020-10-11 Summary: 37