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Caveats and Comments
1
Overview:
This is my analysis, not Stanfordโ€™s. My plots and regressions are intended to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared.
The R program code and PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if you
would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose.
I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point
out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk.
I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist.
There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isnโ€™t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2.
Data sources:
โ€ข USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv
โ€ข USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv
โ€ข USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv
โ€ข Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv
โ€ข Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv
โ€ข Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv
โ€ข Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv
โ€ข Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ
โ€ข Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv
Models:
1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log ๐‘๐‘ข๐‘š๐‘ข๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘ฃ๐‘’ ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  =
๐‘๐‘ข๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘›๐‘ก ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  + ๐‘š๐‘Ž๐‘ฅ๐‘–๐‘š๐‘ข๐‘š ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘ข๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘›๐‘ก ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  1 โˆ’ ๐‘’โˆ’๐‘˜ ๐‘ก . This is a naรฏve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50%
rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures).
Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction
interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/).
2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases.
Locations
The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g.,
China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add.
Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind.
Steve Shafer
steven.shafer@Stanford.edu
2,586,092
152,804
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-05-27
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5%
Explanation of the Figures
2
Brown dots:
cumulative tests
Red dots: cumulative cases
used to estimate Gompertz
function, presently set to last
3 weeks
Red line: predicted cumulative
cases based on the Gompertz
function estimated from the red
dots
Red number: total cases
on June 30th, based on
the Gompertz function
estimated from the red
dots
Black number: total
Deaths on July 31th,
based on log-linear
regression of the past
21 days
Black line: predicted
cumulative deaths, based
on a log linear regression
of deaths over past 21
days.
Axis for deaths / day, usually
1/10th of the axis for cases /
day on the left side of the
figure.
Green line: linear regression
over 8 days, used to calculate
percent increase / decrease
(see below)
Daily change in cases,
calculated as the slope of the
green line (above left) /
number of new cases
yesterday.
Case mortality:
cumulative deaths
/ cumulative cases.
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Cases / day calculated
from cumulative cases
not used to estimate the
Gompertz function
Deaths / day,
axis is on the left
Blue line: today
Blue dots: cumulative cases not
used to estimate Gompertz
function
Cumulative cases
(yesterdayโ€™s cases)
and cumulative deaths
(yesterdayโ€™s deaths)
Axis for cases / day.
Axis for deaths / day
appears to the right.
Geographic
location
Date of analysis,
also shown as
blue vertical line
below
Purple wedge: 98% ensemble
prediction interval from COVID-19
Forecast Hub (USA and US
States only)
Worldwide
25,923,820
886,339
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Worldwide projection as of 2020-08-11
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 20,079,874 (227,820) -- Deaths: 736,082 (4,864) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths
2020-08-11 Summary: 3
USA
6,444,240
190,072
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
USA projection as of 2020-08-11
Mother'sDay
MemorialDay
July4th
July15,2020
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 5,094,400 (49,536) -- Deaths: 163,463 (525) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -1.3% Deaths
2020-08-11 Summary: 4
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam
98,293
1,518
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-08-11
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
0
25
50
75
100
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 68,475 (875) -- Deaths: 1,430 (7) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, +6.0% Deaths
2020-08-11 Summary: 5
Western Europe
1,665,085
170,152
1
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
10,000,000
100,000,000
Actual(points)/Predicted(line)
Phase
Pre-Model
Modeled
Deaths
Tests
Western Europe projection as of 2020-08-11
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
Cases/Day
Deaths/Day
Cases: 1,545,522 (16,487) -- Deaths: 168,076 (42) -- Case Mortality: 10.9% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -1.3% Deaths
2020-08-11 Summary: 6
Worldwide cases
USA
BRA
IND
RUS
ZAF
MEX
PER
COL
CHL
IRN
ESP
GBR
SAU
PAK
BGD
ARG
ITA
TUR
FRA
DEU
IRQ
PHL
IDN
CAN
KAZ
EGY
ECU
BOL
CHN
ISR
UKR
SWE
DOM
BEL
BLR
ROU
NLD
GTM
PRT
POL
JPN
HND
NGA
GHA
KGZ
AFG
CHE
DZA
MAR
AZE
UZB
SRB
KEN
VEN
ETH
NPL
AUT
AUS
SLV
CZE
CMR
CIV
DNK
KOR
BGR
USA
0
2,000,000
4,000,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-08-11 Summary: 7
Worldwide cases
CHL
PER
USA
BRA
ISR
ZAF
SAU
BOL
SWE
COL
DOM
ESP
KGZ
BLR
BEL
KAZ
ECU
RUS
ARG
HND
GBR
SRB
PRT
IRN
IRQ
CHE
MEX
ITA
GTM
AZE
FRA
CAN
NLD
TUR
SLV
ROU
DNK
AUT
DEU
IND
BGR
UKR
CZE
GHA
BGD
PAK
FIN
PHL
POL
AFG
EGY
UZB
DZA
PRY
AUS
VEN
MAR
CMR
LBY
HTI
SEN
NPL
CIV
GIN
ZMB
USA
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totalcasestodate
Worldwide cases
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-08-11 Summary: 8
Average new cases over past 7 days
PER
COL
ISR
BRA
USA
ARG
BOL
ZAF
CHL
DOM
ESP
IRQ
KGZ
HND
ECU
KAZ
SLV
BEL
GTM
ROU
MEX
IND
SRB
SAU
PHL
LBY
RUS
IRN
SWE
NLD
VEN
MAR
FRA
PRY
UKR
UZB
BGR
DNK
GHA
CZE
AUS
ZMB
CHE
AZE
POL
PRT
BGD
KEN
DZA
GBR
TUR
NPL
GRC
CAN
AUT
BLR
DEU
JPN
MDG
SEN
ZWE
IDN
GIN
ETH
ITA
USA
None
1 in 20,000
1 in 10,000
1 in 6,667
1 in 5,000
1 in 4,000
1 in 3,333
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagecases/day
Average new cases over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-08-11 Summary: 9
Worldwide deaths
USA
BRA
MEX
GBR
IND
ITA
FRA
ESP
PER
IRN
RUS
COL
ZAF
CHL
BEL
DEU
CAN
NLD
PAK
ECU
TUR
SWE
IDN
IRQ
EGY
ARG
CHN
BOL
BGD
SAU
ROU
PHL
GTM
CHE
UKR
POL
PRT
HND
KGZ
AFG
DOM
DZA
KAZ
JPN
NGA
SDN
AUT
SRB
DNK
ISR
HUN
BLR
SLV
YEM
MAR
AZE
BGR
KEN
ETH
CMR
CZE
FIN
AUS
KOR
ZMB
USA
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-08-11 Summary: 10
Worldwide deaths
BEL
GBR
PER
ESP
SWE
CHL
ITA
USA
BRA
FRA
MEX
ECU
BOL
NLD
COL
IRN
KGZ
CAN
CHE
ZAF
HND
IRQ
PRT
GTM
DOM
ROU
SRB
ARG
DNK
DEU
SAU
RUS
AUT
ISR
SLV
TUR
KAZ
BGR
FIN
HUN
BLR
EGY
AZE
POL
AFG
UKR
IND
DZA
CZE
PAK
SDN
IDN
PHL
BGD
YEM
CMR
NIC
ZMB
HTI
GRC
LBY
SEN
AUS
MAR
PRY
USA
None
1 in 5,000
1 in 2,500
1 in 1,667
1 in 1,250
1 in 1,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Totaldeathstodate
Worldwide deaths
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-08-11 Summary: 11
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
BOL
PER
COL
MEX
ZAF
BRA
CHL
ARG
USA
IRN
IRQ
KAZ
GTM
HND
DOM
ROU
ECU
SLV
KGZ
ISR
SRB
BGR
SAU
LBY
RUS
IND
ZMB
GBR
AUS
UKR
PRY
MAR
AZE
ESP
BEL
ZWE
SWE
PHL
DZA
BLR
IDN
PRT
VEN
EGY
POL
HTI
SEN
BGD
AGO
MDG
UZB
TUR
MWI
AFG
GHA
KEN
CAN
ETH
NIC
SDN
TGO
FRA
ITA
DNK
YEM
USA
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66
Rank
Averagedeaths/day
Average daily deaths over past 7 days
Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000
2020-08-11 Summary: 12
Case Mortality vs. Testing
LUX
AREBHR
MLT
DNK
ISL
RUS
ISR
LTU
AUS
USA
QAT
PRT
BEL
MDV
GBR
BLR
IRL
KWT
CAN
KAZ
LVA
SGP
SRB
SAU
AUT
ESP
NZL
DEU
CHE
CHLESTNOR
FINROU
ITA
CZE
SVN
NLD
GRC
TUR
POL
ZAF
PAN
SVK
BGR
SLVURY
HUN
COL
MARMYS
IRN
HRV
KOR
UKR
CUB
RWA
PRY
IND
CRI
ARGPHL
NPL
BOL
GHA
BRA
ECU
PER
JPN
PAK
TUN
FJI
MEX
BGD
SEN
UGA
KEN
TGO
THAZWE
CIV
IDN
TWN
ETH
VNM
MMR
NGA
USA
0
5
10
15
0 20 40 60
% Tested
%CaseMortality
Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-08-11
ARE: United Arab Emirates, BHR:Bahrain, MLT: Malta, ISR: Israel, LTU: Lithuania, ISL: Iceland
2020-08-11 Summary: 13
Mortality Trends
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
USCaseRateMortality
Mortality Type:
13 day rolling median
Cumulative
Daily Raw
Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality
Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated
2020-08-11 Summary: 14
Change in New Cases per Day
New cases are:
Increasing > +3%
Increasing between +1% and +3%
No Change (-1% to +1%)
Decreasing between -1% and -3%
Decreasing > -3%
New cases by state as of 2020-08-11
2020-08-11 Summary: 15
Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases
2020-08-11 Summary: 16
Change in New Deaths per Day
New deaths are:
Increasing > +0.5%
Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5%
No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%)
Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5%
Decreasing > -0.5%
New deaths by state as of 2020-08-11
2020-08-11 Summary: 17
Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
PercentofPeak
Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths
2020-08-11 Summary: 18
Change in cases vs change in deaths
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
COCT DE
DC
FL
GA
HI
ID
IL
IN
IA
KSKY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MN
MS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
-6
-3
0
3
6
-8 -4 0 4
Change in cases (%/day)
Changeindeaths(%/day)
Change in cases vs change in deaths over last 14 days 2020-08-11
2020-08-11 Summary: 19
Total US COVID-19 Cases
CA
FL
TX
NY
GA
IL
AZ
NJ
NC
LA
PA
TN
MA
AL
OH
SC
VA
MI
MD
IN
MS
WA
MN
WI
MO
NV
CO
CT
AR
IA
UT
OK
KY
KS
NE
ID
NM
OR
RI
DE
DC
SD
WV
ND
NH
MT
ME
AK
HI
WY
VT
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Totalcases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks: 0.35, p governor: 0.67. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 20
Total US COVID-19 Cases
LA
AZ
FL
MS
NY
AL
NJ
GA
SC
RI
NV
DC
TN
MA
TX
AR
DE
MD
IA
IL
NE
CA
CT
ID
UT
NC
VA
IN
OK
SD
MN
NM
KS
WI
ND
MO
MI
PA
CO
OH
WA
KY
WY
AK
OR
NH
MT
WV
ME
HI
VT
None
1 in 200
1 in 100
1 in 67
1 in 50
1 in 40
1 in 33
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalCases
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Cases
p masks: 0.86, p governor: 0.24. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 21
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past
7 days
LA
GA
MS
AL
FL
ID
NV
TX
TN
AR
SC
CA
OK
ND
MO
AZ
NC
KS
IA
IL
IN
WI
VA
NE
UT
MD
MN
HI
KY
RI
SD
MT
DC
OH
WA
DE
NM
AK
CO
OR
MI
WV
PA
WY
MA
NJ
NY
CT
NH
ME
VT
None
1 in 10,000
1 in 5,000
1 in 3,333
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
NewCases/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days
p masks: 0.057, p governor: 0.025. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 22
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NY
NJ
CA
TX
MA
FL
IL
PA
MI
CT
LA
GA
AZ
OH
MD
IN
VA
NC
SC
MS
CO
AL
MN
WA
MO
TN
RI
WI
NV
IA
KY
NM
OK
DE
DC
AR
NH
KS
OR
NE
UT
ID
SD
WV
ME
ND
MT
VT
HI
WY
AK
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks: 0.052, p governor: 0.17. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 23
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
NJ
NY
MA
CT
RI
LA
DC
MI
MS
IL
DE
MD
PA
AZ
IN
GA
SC
FL
AL
NM
CO
TX
OH
NV
NH
MN
IA
VA
CA
WA
MO
NC
AR
TN
NE
KY
WI
SD
OK
ND
ID
KS
UT
ME
VT
OR
WV
MT
WY
AK
HI
None
1 in 2,000
1 in 1,000
1 in 667
1 in 500
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
TotalDeaths
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Total US COVID-19 Deaths
p masks: 0.028, p governor: 0.18. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 24
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past
7 days
MS
LA
TX
FL
AZ
SC
NV
GA
AL
AR
CA
ID
TN
NC
IA
NM
MA
OK
WV
WA
MT
VA
MD
SD
OH
UT
MO
ND
IL
IN
WI
KS
MN
NE
RI
KY
OR
PA
DC
MI
DE
HI
NJ
NY
WY
CT
CO
AK
VT
ME
NH
None
1 in 500,000
1 in 250,000
1 in 166,667
1 in 125,000
1 in 100,000
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Deaths/Day
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days
p masks: 0.54, p governor: 0.018. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 25
Percent Tested
AK
NY
LA
DC
NM
NJ
CT
TN
IL
CA
ND
MI
RI
DE
MA
NC
AR
FL
WI
WV
MT
UT
OK
GA
MD
NV
MN
MS
VT
IA
AL
NE
SC
VA
KY
OH
ME
AZ
TX
SD
WA
NH
IN
MO
ID
KS
OR
PA
CO
HI
WY
0
10
20
30
40
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentTested
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent Tested
p masks: 0.083, p governor: 0.27. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 26
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
AZ
MS
FL
AL
SC
TX
ID
GA
NV
KS
IA
NE
MA
MD
RI
IN
AR
PA
CO
LA
VA
NJ
SD
DE
MO
UT
TN
NC
MN
NY
OK
IL
CA
WA
WI
OH
DC
CT
KY
WY
OR
MI
ND
NH
NM
MT
HI
WV
ME
AK
VT
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
PercentofPositiveTests
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Percent of Positive COVID Tests
p masks: 0.24, p governor: 0.02. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 27
Positive fraction trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Fractionpositivefrommintomax
Positive fraction trends from min to max
2020-08-11 Summary: 28
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
HI
MN
MT
ND
OK
MO
NV
WA
MS
ID
AR
TX
KY
OR
AL
WY
FL
TN
WV
KS
AK
UT
SC
SD
WI
IA
GA
IN
NE
CA
VA
NC
LA
AZ
OH
CO
RI
NM
DE
NH
PA
IL
MD
VT
MI
MA
NJ
NY
ME
DC
CT
0.0
2.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinpositivetests(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in positive tests over past 14 days
p masks: 0.032, p governor: 0.058. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 29
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak
since FebruaryAL
AR
HI
KY
MO
MT
ND
WV
WY
AK
ID
OK
MS
KS
NC
TN
GA
UT
NV
OH
SC
VA
CA
NE
FL
OR
WA
LA
TX
NM
IN
SD
IA
WI
MN
AZ
CO
MD
IL
RI
PA
DC
MI
NH
ME
VT
DE
MA
NJ
CT
NY
0
30
60
90
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Hospitalizations(%ofpeak)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February
p masks: 0.11, p governor: 0.032. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 30
Hospitalizations trends
HI TX FL
OK LA MS AL GA
AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC
CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE
OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI
WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA
WI VT NH
AK ME
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
min
max
Hospitalizationsfrommintomax
Hospitalizations trends from min to max
2020-08-11 Summary: 31
Change in hospitalizations over past 14
days
HI
WI
MT
WV
SD
RI
NE
ND
KS
KY
IN
MN
AR
WA
MO
IL
MA
VA
AL
WY
IA
NM
MI
ID
CT
AK
MD
OK
MS
PA
NH
TN
NC
OR
GA
UT
CO
DC
LA
NV
OH
SC
NY
CA
FL
ME
TX
NJ
AZ
DE
VT
-4.0
0.0
4.0
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51
Rank
Changeinhospitalizations(%/day)
Masks
No
Yes
Governor
aa
Democratic
Republican
Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days
p masks: 0.73, p governor: 0.89. NB: association != causation.
2020-08-11 Summary: 32
Case Mortality vs. Testing
AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA
CO
CT
DE
DC
FL
GA
HI ID
ILIN
IA
KS
KY
LA
ME
MD
MA
MI
MNMS
MO
MT
NE
NV
NH
NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND
OH
OK
OR
PA
RI
SC
SD
TN
TX
UT
VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
2.5
5.0
7.5
10 20 30
% Tested
%Mortality
Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-08-11
2020-08-11 Summary: 33

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COVID-19 Update (Summary): August 11, 2020

  • 1. Caveats and Comments 1 Overview: This is my analysis, not Stanfordโ€™s. My plots and regressions are intended to understand the trajectory of COVID. It is not confidential and can be freely shared. The R program code and PowerPoint files are available at https://github.com/StevenLShafer/COVID19/. Please contact me at steven.shafer@Stanford.edu if you would like to be added or removed from the recipient list. Suggestions are most welcome! You are welcome to use the R code on GitHub for any purpose. I am attempting to keep the analysis and commentary apolitical. I am now including partisan lean as a metric to help understand the epidemic. I occasionally point out misrepresentations by government officials. I occasionally point out where government recommendations have placed Americans at increasing risk. I try to provide a daily update in the morning, except Sundays. My analysis my be delayed by my clinical responsibilities as a Stanford anesthesiologist. There is a lot of information on the figures. If something isnโ€™t clear, please see the explanation on slide 2. Data sources: โ€ข USA Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_US.csv โ€ข USA Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_US.csv โ€ข USA Testing and Hospitalization Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/COVID19Tracking/covid-tracking-data/master/data/states_daily_4pm_et.csv โ€ข Global Case Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_confirmed_global.csv โ€ข Global Death Data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/raw/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_covid19_deaths_global.csv โ€ข Global Testing Data: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/owid/covid-19-data/master/public/data/owid-covid-data.csv โ€ข Mobility Data: https://www.gstatic.com/covid19/mobility/Global_Mobility_Report.csv โ€ข Partisan Lean: MIT Election Data and Science Lab: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/VOQCHQ/HEIJCQ โ€ข Ensemble Model: https://github.com/reichlab/covid19-forecast-hub/raw/master/data-processed/COVIDhub-ensemble/2020-xx-xx-COVIDhub-ensemble.csv Models: 1. Future projections of case numbers are based on the Gompertz function (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gompertz_function): log ๐‘๐‘ข๐‘š๐‘ข๐‘™๐‘Ž๐‘ก๐‘–๐‘ฃ๐‘’ ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  = ๐‘๐‘ข๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘›๐‘ก ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  + ๐‘š๐‘Ž๐‘ฅ๐‘–๐‘š๐‘ข๐‘š ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  โˆ’ ๐‘๐‘ข๐‘Ÿ๐‘Ÿ๐‘’๐‘›๐‘ก ๐‘๐‘Ž๐‘ ๐‘’๐‘  1 โˆ’ ๐‘’โˆ’๐‘˜ ๐‘ก . This is a naรฏve asymptotic model. k is the rate constant, such that log(2) / k = time to 50% rise. t is the number of days. Wikipedia The Gompertz function is estimated from the last 3 weeks of data for cumulative cases (red dots in the figures). Deaths are predicted from a log linear regression of deaths over the past 21 days. For the US, and individual states, I am also including the 98% prediction interval from the COVID-19 Forecast Hub (https://covid19forecasthub.org/). 2. The rate of change in daily cases and deaths is the slope of delta cases / day over the last 14 days, divided by the average number of cases. Locations The locations for the modeling are where Pamela and I have family and friends, locations of interest to friends and colleagues, or countries in the news (e.g., China, South Korea, Sweden, Brazil) or with significant economic impact on the United States (e.g., Japan, Canada, Mexico). Locations are easy to add. Stay safe, well, resilient, and kind. Steve Shafer steven.shafer@Stanford.edu
  • 2. 2,586,092 152,804 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Actual(points)/Predicted(line) Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests USA projection as of 2020-05-27 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 Cases/Day Deaths/Day Cases: 1,662,302 (32,123) -- Deaths: 98,220 (829) -- Case Mortality: 5.9% -- Daily Change in Cases: -0.5% Explanation of the Figures 2 Brown dots: cumulative tests Red dots: cumulative cases used to estimate Gompertz function, presently set to last 3 weeks Red line: predicted cumulative cases based on the Gompertz function estimated from the red dots Red number: total cases on June 30th, based on the Gompertz function estimated from the red dots Black number: total Deaths on July 31th, based on log-linear regression of the past 21 days Black line: predicted cumulative deaths, based on a log linear regression of deaths over past 21 days. Axis for deaths / day, usually 1/10th of the axis for cases / day on the left side of the figure. Green line: linear regression over 8 days, used to calculate percent increase / decrease (see below) Daily change in cases, calculated as the slope of the green line (above left) / number of new cases yesterday. Case mortality: cumulative deaths / cumulative cases. Cases / day calculated from cumulative cases used to estimate the Gompertz function Cases / day calculated from cumulative cases not used to estimate the Gompertz function Deaths / day, axis is on the left Blue line: today Blue dots: cumulative cases not used to estimate Gompertz function Cumulative cases (yesterdayโ€™s cases) and cumulative deaths (yesterdayโ€™s deaths) Axis for cases / day. Axis for deaths / day appears to the right. Geographic location Date of analysis, also shown as blue vertical line below Purple wedge: 98% ensemble prediction interval from COVID-19 Forecast Hub (USA and US States only)
  • 3. Worldwide 25,923,820 886,339 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Actual(points)/Predicted(line) Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Worldwide projection as of 2020-08-11 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 Cases/Day Deaths/Day Cases: 20,079,874 (227,820) -- Deaths: 736,082 (4,864) -- Case Mortality: 3.7% -- Daily Change: -0.6% Cases, -0.0% Deaths 2020-08-11 Summary: 3
  • 4. USA 6,444,240 190,072 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Actual(points)/Predicted(line) Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests USA projection as of 2020-08-11 Mother'sDay MemorialDay July4th July15,2020 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Cases/Day Deaths/Day Cases: 5,094,400 (49,536) -- Deaths: 163,463 (525) -- Case Mortality: 3.2% -- Daily Change: -2.0% Cases, -1.3% Deaths 2020-08-11 Summary: 4
  • 5. Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam 98,293 1,518 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Actual(points)/Predicted(line) Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests Japan, South Korea, Thailand, Vietnam projection as of 2020-08-11 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 25 50 75 100 Cases/Day Deaths/Day Cases: 68,475 (875) -- Deaths: 1,430 (7) -- Case Mortality: 2.1% -- Daily Change: +1.1% Cases, +6.0% Deaths 2020-08-11 Summary: 5
  • 6. Western Europe 1,665,085 170,152 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Actual(points)/Predicted(line) Phase Pre-Model Modeled Deaths Tests Western Europe projection as of 2020-08-11 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 Cases/Day Deaths/Day Cases: 1,545,522 (16,487) -- Deaths: 168,076 (42) -- Case Mortality: 10.9% -- Daily Change: +3.8% Cases, -1.3% Deaths 2020-08-11 Summary: 6
  • 9. Average new cases over past 7 days PER COL ISR BRA USA ARG BOL ZAF CHL DOM ESP IRQ KGZ HND ECU KAZ SLV BEL GTM ROU MEX IND SRB SAU PHL LBY RUS IRN SWE NLD VEN MAR FRA PRY UKR UZB BGR DNK GHA CZE AUS ZMB CHE AZE POL PRT BGD KEN DZA GBR TUR NPL GRC CAN AUT BLR DEU JPN MDG SEN ZWE IDN GIN ETH ITA USA None 1 in 20,000 1 in 10,000 1 in 6,667 1 in 5,000 1 in 4,000 1 in 3,333 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Averagecases/day Average new cases over past 7 days Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-08-11 Summary: 9
  • 11. Worldwide deaths BEL GBR PER ESP SWE CHL ITA USA BRA FRA MEX ECU BOL NLD COL IRN KGZ CAN CHE ZAF HND IRQ PRT GTM DOM ROU SRB ARG DNK DEU SAU RUS AUT ISR SLV TUR KAZ BGR FIN HUN BLR EGY AZE POL AFG UKR IND DZA CZE PAK SDN IDN PHL BGD YEM CMR NIC ZMB HTI GRC LBY SEN AUS MAR PRY USA None 1 in 5,000 1 in 2,500 1 in 1,667 1 in 1,250 1 in 1,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Totaldeathstodate Worldwide deaths Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-08-11 Summary: 11
  • 12. Average daily deaths over past 7 days BOL PER COL MEX ZAF BRA CHL ARG USA IRN IRQ KAZ GTM HND DOM ROU ECU SLV KGZ ISR SRB BGR SAU LBY RUS IND ZMB GBR AUS UKR PRY MAR AZE ESP BEL ZWE SWE PHL DZA BLR IDN PRT VEN EGY POL HTI SEN BGD AGO MDG UZB TUR MWI AFG GHA KEN CAN ETH NIC SDN TGO FRA ITA DNK YEM USA None 1 in 500,000 1 in 250,000 1 in 166,667 1 in 125,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 Rank Averagedeaths/day Average daily deaths over past 7 days Excludes countries with population < 5,000,000 2020-08-11 Summary: 12
  • 13. Case Mortality vs. Testing LUX AREBHR MLT DNK ISL RUS ISR LTU AUS USA QAT PRT BEL MDV GBR BLR IRL KWT CAN KAZ LVA SGP SRB SAU AUT ESP NZL DEU CHE CHLESTNOR FINROU ITA CZE SVN NLD GRC TUR POL ZAF PAN SVK BGR SLVURY HUN COL MARMYS IRN HRV KOR UKR CUB RWA PRY IND CRI ARGPHL NPL BOL GHA BRA ECU PER JPN PAK TUN FJI MEX BGD SEN UGA KEN TGO THAZWE CIV IDN TWN ETH VNM MMR NGA USA 0 5 10 15 0 20 40 60 % Tested %CaseMortality Case Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-08-11 ARE: United Arab Emirates, BHR:Bahrain, MLT: Malta, ISR: Israel, LTU: Lithuania, ISL: Iceland 2020-08-11 Summary: 13
  • 14. Mortality Trends 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 USCaseRateMortality Mortality Type: 13 day rolling median Cumulative Daily Raw Daily vs. Cumulative US Case Rate Mortality Last week excluded because deaths are often backdated 2020-08-11 Summary: 14
  • 15. Change in New Cases per Day New cases are: Increasing > +3% Increasing between +1% and +3% No Change (-1% to +1%) Decreasing between -1% and -3% Decreasing > -3% New cases by state as of 2020-08-11 2020-08-11 Summary: 15
  • 16. Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 PercentofPeak Daily Cases as a Percent of Peak Cases 2020-08-11 Summary: 16
  • 17. Change in New Deaths per Day New deaths are: Increasing > +0.5% Increasing between +0.1% and +0.5% No Change (-0.1% to +0.1%) Decreasing between -0.1% and -0.5% Decreasing > -0.5% New deaths by state as of 2020-08-11 2020-08-11 Summary: 17
  • 18. Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 0 25 50 75 100 PercentofPeak Daily Deaths as a Percent of Peak Deaths 2020-08-11 Summary: 18
  • 19. Change in cases vs change in deaths AL AK AZ AR CA COCT DE DC FL GA HI ID IL IN IA KSKY LA ME MD MA MI MN MS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY -6 -3 0 3 6 -8 -4 0 4 Change in cases (%/day) Changeindeaths(%/day) Change in cases vs change in deaths over last 14 days 2020-08-11 2020-08-11 Summary: 19
  • 20. Total US COVID-19 Cases CA FL TX NY GA IL AZ NJ NC LA PA TN MA AL OH SC VA MI MD IN MS WA MN WI MO NV CO CT AR IA UT OK KY KS NE ID NM OR RI DE DC SD WV ND NH MT ME AK HI WY VT 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Totalcases Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Cases p masks: 0.35, p governor: 0.67. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 20
  • 21. Total US COVID-19 Cases LA AZ FL MS NY AL NJ GA SC RI NV DC TN MA TX AR DE MD IA IL NE CA CT ID UT NC VA IN OK SD MN NM KS WI ND MO MI PA CO OH WA KY WY AK OR NH MT WV ME HI VT None 1 in 200 1 in 100 1 in 67 1 in 50 1 in 40 1 in 33 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalCases Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Cases p masks: 0.86, p governor: 0.24. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 21
  • 22. Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days LA GA MS AL FL ID NV TX TN AR SC CA OK ND MO AZ NC KS IA IL IN WI VA NE UT MD MN HI KY RI SD MT DC OH WA DE NM AK CO OR MI WV PA WY MA NJ NY CT NH ME VT None 1 in 10,000 1 in 5,000 1 in 3,333 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank NewCases/Day Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Average US COVID-19 cases over the past 7 days p masks: 0.057, p governor: 0.025. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 22
  • 23. Total US COVID-19 Deaths NY NJ CA TX MA FL IL PA MI CT LA GA AZ OH MD IN VA NC SC MS CO AL MN WA MO TN RI WI NV IA KY NM OK DE DC AR NH KS OR NE UT ID SD WV ME ND MT VT HI WY AK 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalDeaths Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Deaths p masks: 0.052, p governor: 0.17. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 23
  • 24. Total US COVID-19 Deaths NJ NY MA CT RI LA DC MI MS IL DE MD PA AZ IN GA SC FL AL NM CO TX OH NV NH MN IA VA CA WA MO NC AR TN NE KY WI SD OK ND ID KS UT ME VT OR WV MT WY AK HI None 1 in 2,000 1 in 1,000 1 in 667 1 in 500 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank TotalDeaths Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Total US COVID-19 Deaths p masks: 0.028, p governor: 0.18. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 24
  • 25. Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days MS LA TX FL AZ SC NV GA AL AR CA ID TN NC IA NM MA OK WV WA MT VA MD SD OH UT MO ND IL IN WI KS MN NE RI KY OR PA DC MI DE HI NJ NY WY CT CO AK VT ME NH None 1 in 500,000 1 in 250,000 1 in 166,667 1 in 125,000 1 in 100,000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Deaths/Day Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Average US COVID-19 deaths over the past 7 days p masks: 0.54, p governor: 0.018. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 25
  • 26. Percent Tested AK NY LA DC NM NJ CT TN IL CA ND MI RI DE MA NC AR FL WI WV MT UT OK GA MD NV MN MS VT IA AL NE SC VA KY OH ME AZ TX SD WA NH IN MO ID KS OR PA CO HI WY 0 10 20 30 40 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank PercentTested Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Percent Tested p masks: 0.083, p governor: 0.27. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 26
  • 27. Percent of Positive COVID Tests AZ MS FL AL SC TX ID GA NV KS IA NE MA MD RI IN AR PA CO LA VA NJ SD DE MO UT TN NC MN NY OK IL CA WA WI OH DC CT KY WY OR MI ND NH NM MT HI WV ME AK VT 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank PercentofPositiveTests Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Percent of Positive COVID Tests p masks: 0.24, p governor: 0.02. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 27
  • 28. Positive fraction trends HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Fractionpositivefrommintomax Positive fraction trends from min to max 2020-08-11 Summary: 28
  • 29. Change in positive tests over past 14 days HI MN MT ND OK MO NV WA MS ID AR TX KY OR AL WY FL TN WV KS AK UT SC SD WI IA GA IN NE CA VA NC LA AZ OH CO RI NM DE NH PA IL MD VT MI MA NJ NY ME DC CT 0.0 2.0 4.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeinpositivetests(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in positive tests over past 14 days p masks: 0.032, p governor: 0.058. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 29
  • 30. Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since FebruaryAL AR HI KY MO MT ND WV WY AK ID OK MS KS NC TN GA UT NV OH SC VA CA NE FL OR WA LA TX NM IN SD IA WI MN AZ CO MD IL RI PA DC MI NH ME VT DE MA NJ CT NY 0 30 60 90 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Hospitalizations(%ofpeak) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Current hospitalizations as a percent of peak since February p masks: 0.11, p governor: 0.032. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 30
  • 31. Hospitalizations trends HI TX FL OK LA MS AL GA AZ NM KS AR TN NC SC DC CA UT CO NE MO KY WV VA MD DE OR NV WY SD IA IN OH PA NJ CT RI WA ID MT ND MN IL MI NY MA WI VT NH AK ME min max min max min max min max min max min max min max min max Hospitalizationsfrommintomax Hospitalizations trends from min to max 2020-08-11 Summary: 31
  • 32. Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days HI WI MT WV SD RI NE ND KS KY IN MN AR WA MO IL MA VA AL WY IA NM MI ID CT AK MD OK MS PA NH TN NC OR GA UT CO DC LA NV OH SC NY CA FL ME TX NJ AZ DE VT -4.0 0.0 4.0 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 Rank Changeinhospitalizations(%/day) Masks No Yes Governor aa Democratic Republican Change in hospitalizations over past 14 days p masks: 0.73, p governor: 0.89. NB: association != causation. 2020-08-11 Summary: 32
  • 33. Case Mortality vs. Testing AL AK AZ AR CA CO CT DE DC FL GA HI ID ILIN IA KS KY LA ME MD MA MI MNMS MO MT NE NV NH NJ NM NY NC ND OH OK OR PA RI SC SD TN TX UT VT VA WA WV WI WY 2.5 5.0 7.5 10 20 30 % Tested %Mortality Mortality vs. Testing as of 2020-08-11 2020-08-11 Summary: 33