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New Metrics for
Sustainable Prosperity
Options for
GDP+3
Presentation by Celine Charveriat, CEO Pro(to)ptopia
Based on the preliminary study by Céline Charveriat, Saamah Abdallah, Susanne de Jong, &
Martin Vladimirov with statistical support by Lafortune, Massa and Touré from SDSN
Brussels, 17 May 2024
Imagineering a green caring society
Introduction
02
Sustainable prosperity:
The need to complement GDP
GDP : the price of success
GDP as “the ultimate measure of a country’s overall welfare and a
statistic to end all statistics” (Dickinson, E.A history of GDP, 2011) ?
Short-comings of GDP
Reflects economic rather than social, political, geopolitical, or
environmental values of production
Does not provide information on the distribution of national output
amongst factors of production, and categories of people
Does not address over-financialisation of economy
The value of complementing indicators
Would provide equal visibility for other policy objectives (e.g. social
and environmental)
economic activity is only a means to an end which is ultimately
enhancing the well-being of Europeans
the public cares about objectives beyond GDP (74% G20 citizens
want a well being economy - Ipsos 2022)
03
Illustrative example
Covid: Negative impact on wellbeing 3.5x higher than
GDP losses (McKinsey, 2020)
The need to provide better
tools for top-line decision-
making, long term planning &
accountability
Plethora of indicators at EU level
dashboards best suited for expert level rather than top
policy level discussions.
They need to be complemented by a much smaller set of
headline indicators
04
Statistics New Zealand
Economic, social, environmental, institutional
Four Key Dimensions of EU
Sustainable Prosperity
05
Defining the non-
economic dimensions
Art 3 TEU: aim at social progress;
2021 European Pillar of Social Rights IAP:
1) equal opportunities, 2) fair working
conditions, 3) social protection & inclusion
Social
Art 3.3 TEU: aim at high level of protection
Art 11, 191, 193 TFEU: EU competency
8th Environmental Action Plan: “living well,
within planetary boundaries,” 6 dimensions
Environmental
Art 2 TEU; EU Charter of fundamental rights
Focus on Rule of law, effectiveness of
justice systems, quality of public
administration, ability of citizens to
participate in decision-making, safety and
security of citizens
Institutional
06
Methodology
07
Mixed Methodology
32 indicators
initially selected
(15, 11, and 12)
Exclusion criteria
Statistical Tests
Expert survey & review
of citizen priorities
5 scenarios
Consultation
workshop and
structured
interviews
Final 3 options
14 criteria covering: the availability of suitable data, relevance for
policymaking, broad public support, ease of communication, ability to
reflect a dimension adequately, complementarity to GDP,
08
Review of public priorities
09
Reviewed the outcomes of 9
initiatives that attempted to
identify public priorities for
measuring wellbeing / progress
(augmented with output of Future
of Europe conversation)
Scenario 1
(Data validity)
Scenario 2
(Expert based)
Scenario 3
(Public
preference)
Scenario 4
(EU policy
coherence)
Scenario 5
(International
coverage)
Social
In-work-at-risk-of-
poverty rate
Palma ratio
Healthy life
expectancy at
birth
People at risk of
poverty or social
exclusion (AROPE)
Life satisfaction
Environmental Air quality
Gross greenhouse
gas emissions
Gross greenhouse
gas emissions
Raw material
footprint
Gross greenhouse
gas emissions
Institutional Life satisfaction Trust in institutions Rule of Law Index
Perceived
independence of
the justice system
Corruption
Perception Index
The 5 initial scenarios
10
National Performance per 5 Scenarios
Table showing comparison of national average raw values 2018 - latest available (colours), and trends, based on trends over last 2 years available per 27 EU countries
11
3 Final Options
12
Option Leaving
No One Behind
Option Better
Life
Option End
Poverty
Economic GDP/capita GDP/capita GDP/capita
Social S80/S20 ratio Life expectancy
Population at risk
of poverty and
social exclusion
(AROPE)
Environmental GHG/capita GHG/capita
Material
footprint/capita
Institutional
Trust in
institutions
Rule of Law
Index
Independence of
the justice system
Selecting the 3 Options
Strengths and weaknesses
Statistical tests: S2 and S5 score highest
Communicability: S5, S3, and S1 score highest
Expert survey preferred S2, S3, and S5
WB now, later, inclusion: minor differences
Political actionability: S2, S3, S4 score highest
(due to life satisfaction)
Final options inspired by S2, S3, & S4
S2: S80/S20 ratio instead of Palma ratio (more up-
to-date data)
S3: Life expectancy instead of healthy life
expectancy (less subjective and prone to
incoherence)
Social indicator suggest their title
13
3 Options: EU average performance (2017-2022)
Inspired by Kaldor’s square: there should be an ideal balance between 4 dimensions
Shows how economic dimension has been prioritised
Displays the key difference of selected indicators in environmental dimension
Institutional dimension underperforms in each option
14
3 Options: EU annual performance (2021-2022)
15
3 Options: Case
study illustrations
Ranking of five countries
Representing the EU’s different regions and
countries of differing economic performance
Performance over time
illustrated for Option “end poverty” (S4)
no decoupling between GDP and material footprint
national trends in AROPE and the perceived
independence of the justice system are distinct
16
3 Options: International
comparability issues
Lack of internationally comparable data
Different indicators and methodologies used by
Eurostat versus other major countries outside of the EU
Alternative indicators that are used internationally had a
too low update frequency (compared to GDP)
Only Scenario 5 allowed for international comparability
Eurostat’s forthcoming 2024 SDG report will include a
new section on international comparability, in which they
select robust and internationally comparable indicators
17
Communication
considerations
Effective communications are
about 4 elements
Level of public understanding
Trustworthiness of indicators (trust in the
institution which is the source of the data and
consistency with other sources producing similar
indicators)
Relevance to the citizen (including at local level
Frequency
18
Policy
Recommendations
19
5.
6.
7.
8.
1.
2.
3.
4.
Mainstream GDP+3 in EU policy
processes
Annual Sustainable Growth Survey
--> integrate GDP+3 + dashboard
Semester Country Recommendations
-> GDP+3 as headline indicators
Economic governance framework of
Council --> include GDP+3
Work programme of EC commission
align priorities with GDP+3
MFF process --> assess impact of budget
on GDP+3 (see example of Italy)
State of the Union speech --> refer to EU’s
performance on GDP+3
Better regulation --> impact on GDP+3
assessed ex-ante of legislation
More proactive EU economic diplomacy on
Beyond GDP
20
Future research needs
Ensure disaggregability
Increase frequency and
nowcastability
Integrate negative spillovers in
environmental indicators
Test policy responsiveness
Collaborate with international
community
Statistics
21
Explore use of life satisfaction
as cross-cutting indicator
Explore the creation of a peace,
safety and security single
indicator or index
Develop new institutional
indicators (transparency and
citizen engagement)
Indicator development
Determine mid-term
targets/landing zones for
each indicator
Define optimal balance
between GDP+3 indicators
Test framework through
citizen panel/assembly
Framework development
Conclusion
22
It is immediately actionable
Sending a strong signal to citizens about a meaningful change
of direction in line with fundamental aspirations
Redefining prosperity, in line with EU values, is key in a context
of systemic rivalry
Saamah Abdallah
Hot or Cool
Susanne de Jong
Pro(to)topia
Martin Vladimirov
CSD
Contributors
Thank you
to everyone!
Céline Charveriat
CEO, Pro(to)topia
The Team
23
Emanuele Bozzini
S4YP, for conducting
the survey
Eloise Bodin
Pro(to)topia, for
organising the workshop
SDSN
For their statistical
support
Advisory Council
Sandrine Dixson-
Declève
Enrico Giovannini Peter Browning
Browning
Environmental
Communications
Club of Rome
Club of Rome,
University of Rome
“Tor Vergata”
Thank you for
your attention
Do you have any
questions?
24
celine.charveriat@prototopia.eu
Imagineering a green caring society

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New Metrics for Sustainable Prosperity: Options for GDP+3

  • 1. New Metrics for Sustainable Prosperity Options for GDP+3 Presentation by Celine Charveriat, CEO Pro(to)ptopia Based on the preliminary study by Céline Charveriat, Saamah Abdallah, Susanne de Jong, & Martin Vladimirov with statistical support by Lafortune, Massa and Touré from SDSN Brussels, 17 May 2024 Imagineering a green caring society
  • 3. Sustainable prosperity: The need to complement GDP GDP : the price of success GDP as “the ultimate measure of a country’s overall welfare and a statistic to end all statistics” (Dickinson, E.A history of GDP, 2011) ? Short-comings of GDP Reflects economic rather than social, political, geopolitical, or environmental values of production Does not provide information on the distribution of national output amongst factors of production, and categories of people Does not address over-financialisation of economy The value of complementing indicators Would provide equal visibility for other policy objectives (e.g. social and environmental) economic activity is only a means to an end which is ultimately enhancing the well-being of Europeans the public cares about objectives beyond GDP (74% G20 citizens want a well being economy - Ipsos 2022) 03 Illustrative example Covid: Negative impact on wellbeing 3.5x higher than GDP losses (McKinsey, 2020)
  • 4. The need to provide better tools for top-line decision- making, long term planning & accountability Plethora of indicators at EU level dashboards best suited for expert level rather than top policy level discussions. They need to be complemented by a much smaller set of headline indicators 04 Statistics New Zealand
  • 5. Economic, social, environmental, institutional Four Key Dimensions of EU Sustainable Prosperity 05
  • 6. Defining the non- economic dimensions Art 3 TEU: aim at social progress; 2021 European Pillar of Social Rights IAP: 1) equal opportunities, 2) fair working conditions, 3) social protection & inclusion Social Art 3.3 TEU: aim at high level of protection Art 11, 191, 193 TFEU: EU competency 8th Environmental Action Plan: “living well, within planetary boundaries,” 6 dimensions Environmental Art 2 TEU; EU Charter of fundamental rights Focus on Rule of law, effectiveness of justice systems, quality of public administration, ability of citizens to participate in decision-making, safety and security of citizens Institutional 06
  • 8. Mixed Methodology 32 indicators initially selected (15, 11, and 12) Exclusion criteria Statistical Tests Expert survey & review of citizen priorities 5 scenarios Consultation workshop and structured interviews Final 3 options 14 criteria covering: the availability of suitable data, relevance for policymaking, broad public support, ease of communication, ability to reflect a dimension adequately, complementarity to GDP, 08
  • 9. Review of public priorities 09 Reviewed the outcomes of 9 initiatives that attempted to identify public priorities for measuring wellbeing / progress (augmented with output of Future of Europe conversation)
  • 10. Scenario 1 (Data validity) Scenario 2 (Expert based) Scenario 3 (Public preference) Scenario 4 (EU policy coherence) Scenario 5 (International coverage) Social In-work-at-risk-of- poverty rate Palma ratio Healthy life expectancy at birth People at risk of poverty or social exclusion (AROPE) Life satisfaction Environmental Air quality Gross greenhouse gas emissions Gross greenhouse gas emissions Raw material footprint Gross greenhouse gas emissions Institutional Life satisfaction Trust in institutions Rule of Law Index Perceived independence of the justice system Corruption Perception Index The 5 initial scenarios 10
  • 11. National Performance per 5 Scenarios Table showing comparison of national average raw values 2018 - latest available (colours), and trends, based on trends over last 2 years available per 27 EU countries 11
  • 13. Option Leaving No One Behind Option Better Life Option End Poverty Economic GDP/capita GDP/capita GDP/capita Social S80/S20 ratio Life expectancy Population at risk of poverty and social exclusion (AROPE) Environmental GHG/capita GHG/capita Material footprint/capita Institutional Trust in institutions Rule of Law Index Independence of the justice system Selecting the 3 Options Strengths and weaknesses Statistical tests: S2 and S5 score highest Communicability: S5, S3, and S1 score highest Expert survey preferred S2, S3, and S5 WB now, later, inclusion: minor differences Political actionability: S2, S3, S4 score highest (due to life satisfaction) Final options inspired by S2, S3, & S4 S2: S80/S20 ratio instead of Palma ratio (more up- to-date data) S3: Life expectancy instead of healthy life expectancy (less subjective and prone to incoherence) Social indicator suggest their title 13
  • 14. 3 Options: EU average performance (2017-2022) Inspired by Kaldor’s square: there should be an ideal balance between 4 dimensions Shows how economic dimension has been prioritised Displays the key difference of selected indicators in environmental dimension Institutional dimension underperforms in each option 14
  • 15. 3 Options: EU annual performance (2021-2022) 15
  • 16. 3 Options: Case study illustrations Ranking of five countries Representing the EU’s different regions and countries of differing economic performance Performance over time illustrated for Option “end poverty” (S4) no decoupling between GDP and material footprint national trends in AROPE and the perceived independence of the justice system are distinct 16
  • 17. 3 Options: International comparability issues Lack of internationally comparable data Different indicators and methodologies used by Eurostat versus other major countries outside of the EU Alternative indicators that are used internationally had a too low update frequency (compared to GDP) Only Scenario 5 allowed for international comparability Eurostat’s forthcoming 2024 SDG report will include a new section on international comparability, in which they select robust and internationally comparable indicators 17
  • 18. Communication considerations Effective communications are about 4 elements Level of public understanding Trustworthiness of indicators (trust in the institution which is the source of the data and consistency with other sources producing similar indicators) Relevance to the citizen (including at local level Frequency 18
  • 20. 5. 6. 7. 8. 1. 2. 3. 4. Mainstream GDP+3 in EU policy processes Annual Sustainable Growth Survey --> integrate GDP+3 + dashboard Semester Country Recommendations -> GDP+3 as headline indicators Economic governance framework of Council --> include GDP+3 Work programme of EC commission align priorities with GDP+3 MFF process --> assess impact of budget on GDP+3 (see example of Italy) State of the Union speech --> refer to EU’s performance on GDP+3 Better regulation --> impact on GDP+3 assessed ex-ante of legislation More proactive EU economic diplomacy on Beyond GDP 20
  • 21. Future research needs Ensure disaggregability Increase frequency and nowcastability Integrate negative spillovers in environmental indicators Test policy responsiveness Collaborate with international community Statistics 21 Explore use of life satisfaction as cross-cutting indicator Explore the creation of a peace, safety and security single indicator or index Develop new institutional indicators (transparency and citizen engagement) Indicator development Determine mid-term targets/landing zones for each indicator Define optimal balance between GDP+3 indicators Test framework through citizen panel/assembly Framework development
  • 22. Conclusion 22 It is immediately actionable Sending a strong signal to citizens about a meaningful change of direction in line with fundamental aspirations Redefining prosperity, in line with EU values, is key in a context of systemic rivalry
  • 23. Saamah Abdallah Hot or Cool Susanne de Jong Pro(to)topia Martin Vladimirov CSD Contributors Thank you to everyone! Céline Charveriat CEO, Pro(to)topia The Team 23 Emanuele Bozzini S4YP, for conducting the survey Eloise Bodin Pro(to)topia, for organising the workshop SDSN For their statistical support Advisory Council Sandrine Dixson- Declève Enrico Giovannini Peter Browning Browning Environmental Communications Club of Rome Club of Rome, University of Rome “Tor Vergata”
  • 24. Thank you for your attention Do you have any questions? 24 celine.charveriat@prototopia.eu Imagineering a green caring society