This document summarizes the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) project. It discusses the project's goals of improving data access and representation of extremes. It outlines the user engagement process, including user groups and demonstration projects. It also describes the climate services that will be provided, including guidance documents, tutorials, and different methods of accessing the projection data.

1. UKCP18 User Engagement
Benjamin Harrison, Climate Services Scientist
UK Met Office
ICIMOD, Kathmandu, January 31th 2019
www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2017, Met Office

2. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Government
UK Climate
Change Risk
Assessment
National
Adaptation
Plan
Public health
Regulators
Flood risk
assessment
Water
resources
management
Others
Adaptation
Reporting
Power
Building
design
Social
Vulnerability
UK National Climate Projections
Examples where UKCP09 used as a basis for
climate risk assessments

3. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
UKCP18
Tiered messaging
Improved data access
More extremes
Keep probabilities
Spatial coherence
User requirements
workshops
2013
2014
New science
published
Sexton & Harris
Kendon et al
Brown et al
2015
Start of UKCP18
Project
UKCP09 additional
products
Wind projections
Spatially coherent
projections
Technical notes
2009
2010
UKCIP98
UKCIP02
Launch of
UKCP09
UK Climate Projections
Continual improvement

4. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
What we know about users of UKCP09?
Consultant
Academic
Arms
Length
Body
Regulator
Public
Services
Third
Sector
Business
Professional
Body
Policy/
Strategy
Research
Tool Dev
Advice/
Comms

5. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
I have to produce
a flood risk
assessment for a
new development
I need to write a
regional tourism
strategy
I need to decide
whether to build
a reservoir
I need to give a
presentation to
local councillors
I need to understand
the risks to my
business supply
chains
Enabling others with UKCP18

6. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Engaging the Audience for
UKCP18 Government User
Group
≈20 participants
Non-Government
User Group
≈ 45 members
UKCP
Climate
Services
Chair: Environment Agency
Chair: Adaptation Sub-
Committee
Joint Project Team

7. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
• What kind of metrics can I have?
• What time periods will it cover?
• Can I choose my own baselines?
• How credible are the results?
• What format will the results be in?
Delivered as a climate service

8. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
UKCP18 Project: Climate Services
Climate services revolve around
the user
• User groups
• User metrics
• UK validation
• User guidance and science
reporting
• Demonstration projects
• Data delivery and website
Government User Group (≈20)
Non-Government User Group (≈ 45)

9. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
UKCP18 Project
Information
on extremes
Open access
to daily data
Sub-daily
data
Retain robust
assessment of
uncertainty
Spatial-
coherence
Time-
series
Go beyond
2100
information
beyond the
UK scale
Better
communication
of limitations

10. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
UKCP18 Projections over Land
PDFs evolving in
time for UK at
25km
20 x plausible global
realisations at 60km
10 x high
resolution
downscaled
realisations at
2.2km
Samples plausible
RCP8.5 CO2 pathways
Global model drives
regional model
10 x high resolution
downscaled
realisations at 12km
Regional model drives
convection-permitting model

11. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Further Products derived from UKCP18
• There are several
metrics that will not be
produced under
UKCP18 which are
useful for adaptation
planning.
• Derived products are
something that takes
UKCP18 information
and combines it with
something else to
produce something new
to address these.

12. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Water by iconsphere from the Noun Project
City by David Lopez from the Noun Project
forest by Yo! Baba from the Noun Project
Top five risks by Davo Sime from the Noun Project
Effect of UKCP18 data on
models of climate and
weather information for the
analysis of building
thermal and energy
performance at design
stage.
Application of UKCP18 outputs for
water resources planning and
drought risk assessment for the UK
water industry
Use of high resolution climate
projections for sub daily rainfall
within national scale pluvial flood
hazard maps
Risk assessment of tree species
suitability to climate change using
Ecological Site Classification
Yorkshire Climate Change Risk
Assessment
Coastal Sensitivity to Climate
Change Projections
Demonstration Projects

13. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Guidance and Science reports
• Headline summary
• Science documents
• Peer-reviewed science overview
• Peer-reviewed science reports
• User guidance documents
• Peer-reviewed guidance on appropriate use
(e.g. assumptions, caveats & limitations)
• Tutorials on practical issues (e.g. downloading
data, interpreting graphs)
• Worked examples demonstrating how to use
the data
User guidance to include video
tutorials and transcripts

14. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Climate Data
Practical
Guidance on
how to adapt
Sector
specific data
and
guidance
Big picture
climate info
Entrypoints
Data
Interface
Accessing UKCP18 knowledge

15. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Accessing UKCP18 data
Basic
Intermediate
Advanced
Interactive interface

16. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Accessing UKCP18 data
Basic
Intermediate
Advanced
CEDA Data catalogue

17. Working together on
UK Climate Projections
Accessing UKCP18 data
Basic
Intermediate
Advanced
Script access through API
http://wps-web1.ceda.ac.uk/wps?
Request=Execute&
Identifier=ExtractUKStationData&
Format=text/xml&
Inform=true&Store=false&Status=false&
DataInputs=
StartDateTime=2015-11-09T13%3A38%3A36;
Obs=TempDiurnal;
BBox=-12.00%7C49.00%7C3.00%7C61.00;
EndDateTime=2016-08-01T00%3A00%3A00;

18. www.metoffice.gov.uk © Crown Copyright 2017, Met Office
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