This document summarizes a presentation on using the TIAM-FR integrated assessment model to develop scenarios that meet net zero emissions targets and align national climate policies with the Paris Agreement. It discusses using carbon dioxide removal approaches, modeling afforestation and land use in GLOBIOM, and linking this with the energy system modeling in TIAM-FR. The document outlines scenarios developed, presents some results on electricity generation and fresh water withdrawals, and discusses integrating sustainability considerations and developing policy recommendations based on the modeling.

1. Science-based applications on TIAM-FR
to meet the net zero emissions
Sophie CHLELA – PhD student
Sandrine SELOSSE – PhD, Research supervisor
Summer 2023 Semi-Annual ETSAP Meeting
Golden, CO, USA
15/06/2023

2. 2
▪ Net zero emissions and Aligning NDCs with the PA
▪ Climate change mitigation through CDR
▪ Prospective implementation
▪ Scenario set up in TIAM-FR
▪ Results
▪ The water module
▪ Conclusion and future work
OUTLINE

3. 3
ACHIEVING NET ZERO EMISSIONS
The Paris Agreement and the Net Zero (NZ) target
Source: IPCC WG3, Chapter 12, 2022
The PA article 4.1 “as to achieve a balance between
anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by
sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this
century basis of equity, and in the context of
sustainable development and efforts to eradicate
poverty.”
Stylized Emission trajectory distinguishing between
different sources of Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR)
Aligning the NDCs with the long-term objective
Considering energy and land emissions and removals

4. 4
Enhanced Weathering
Direct Air Capture (DAC)
(and storage, DACS)
Ocean Alkalinity enhancement
CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL APPROACHES
Natural solutions Technologies Combined
Afforestation/Reforestation
[0.5-3.6 GtCO2/year]
Biochar
[0.5–2 GtCO2/year]
Soil Carbon Sequestration (SCS)
[up to 5GtCO2/year]
Coastal blue carbon
Enhanced Weathering
[2–4 GtCO2 /year]
Direct Air Capture (DAC)
(and storage, DACS)
[0.5–5 GtCO2/year]
Ocean Alkalinity enhancement
Bioenergy Carbon Capture and Storage
(BECCS)
[0.5–5GtCO2/year]
« Anthropogenic activities removing carbon dioxide (CO2) from the
atmosphere and durably storing it in geological, terrestrial,
or ocean reservoirs, or in products” (IPCC, 2021)
“1 & 3” use photosynthesis to capture CO2
“2” uses a chemical reaction for carbon capture
Potentials are in brackets for an assessment of sustainable global NET
potential in 2050 by Sabine Fuss et al 2018 Environ. Res. Lett. 13 063002

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CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION THROUGH NATURAL CDR
Exploratory research on NCS
Key Figures:
▪ 21 pathways were identified for GHG reductions, where
some aim to enhance sinks → managing and restoring
activities
▪ Practices such as reforestation, conservation agriculture,
biochar deployment can deliver up to 37% of GHG
mitigation globally
▪ For the United States maximum potential of 1.2
GtCO2eq/year (Fargione et al (2018))
▪ Global mitigation potential across ecosystems (cost-
effective potential achieved at <100$/tCO2eq)

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TIMES INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL (TIAM-FR)
The French version of the TIMES Integrated Assessment Model representing the world energy model in 15 regions, with a
time horizon until 2100.
Reference Energy System (RES) of TIAM-FR model TIAM-FR regions

7. 7
GLOBIOM-G4M
▪ GLOBIOM is a partial equilibrium land use
model, which can assess competition for land-
use between agriculture, bioenergy, and
forestry.
▪ Main sectors are agriculture and forestry,
production of crops and energy crops and are
represented according to their profitability, and
finally animal production.
▪ The model is solved recursively dynamic and
can provide projections up to 2100.
▪ International trade.
GLOBIOM
G4M
• Cultivated area
• Land prices
• Forest biomass
demand & prices
Increments of
biomass stocks
Forest areas LAND USE
Population

8. 8
ENERGY-LAND: TIAM-FR X GLOBIOM
Soft-Link with GLOBIOM emulation:
▪ Understand the “Reference Land System”
▪ Determine the input parameters for TIAM-FR
⁻ GHG mitigation
⁻ Prices of GHG (12 prices in USD/tCO2eq)
⁻ Bioenergy prices : seven prices in USD/GJ
⁻ SSP2
▪ Regional linkages
▪ Constraints on land for forestry and agriculture
▪ Emissions and removals
Land use evolution by type of cover with
GHG00 and BIO13 (Base scenario)

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Land
Agriculture
land
Forest
Cropland
Other
natural land
Forest
land
Land cover
Forestry
Natural
forest
A/R
Pasture
Forestry
prod
Cropland
irrigated
Energy
crops
Roundwood Wood fuel
Industrial
Roundwood
Million
m3/yr
Million ha Million ha
Forest
residues
Million
m3/yr
million t
DM/yr
Agriculture
prod
Non-energy
crops
Energy crops
Agriculture
dem
Forestry
dem
Livestock Feed
Bioenergy
Food
Non-food
Water
CO2
emissions
Reference Land System

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MODELING IN TIAM-FR
Afforestation
Land
Emissions
Forest
Management
Natural Sinks Natural sources
Deforestation
Forest
Management
Land
Emissions
Other LUC Other LUC

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SCENARIOS
1. NDC: SSP4-3.4
⁻ includes updated NDC with Net zero
commitments until 2050/2060 and 2070.
For countries with 2030 targets, the
emissions on the long-term must stay under
2030 levels.
⁻ NDC CO2 concentration evolution (Climate
parameters AR6 from UCL)
2. PA: Paris Agreement targeting 1.5 degrees
increase by the end of the century (no
constraint on overshoot)
Climate module
Carbon budget

12. 12
RESULTS – ELECTRICITY GENERATION
▪ Decarbonization of the electricity sector relies less on technological options in a scenario with afforestation and
coal phase out is earlier
▪ Renewable energy represents almost the same (29% and 32% in 2050 for NDC and NDC+aff respectively, and
34% by 2100 for both) while BECCS are always preferred in these scenarios
NDC-2030 NDC-2030 + Afforestation

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APPLICATION OF WATER MODULE
Water use in the energy sector (extraction, power plants)
Withdrawals and consumptions
▪ Account for the heat to be discharged (mechanical work of
the plant, fuel used, thermal efficiency)
▪ Additional water requirements for carbon capture
technologies
▪ Consider different types of cooling technologies
Updates and/or Analysis Objective
Conformity of water use in the processes Implementation of the water module
Mitigation solutions Climate constraints impact on water use and
emissions variations
Regional water withdrawal Contribute SDG6.4.2 indicator

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RESULTS-FRESH WATER WITHDRAWALS
▪ Reduction of biomass use in AFR leads to less freshwater withdrawal
▪ Water consumption decrease in MEA for a less stringent scenario (NDC)
▪ China’s transition is critical in terms of water stress (it is in the third most water stressed region [FAO, 2019])

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT CONSIDERATIONS
1. Integrated approach: Interactions between sectors, solutions and
SDGs (1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 14, 15)
2. Provide metrics and guide for the national policies
3. For CDR, it is useful for studying their sustainability rather than
target achievement
4. SDGs in the EU (Eurostat, 2022):
▪ SDG6 and SDG15 are in moderate movement away for the
European region
▪ SDG7 in the EU: renewable energy sources accounted for 22.1 %
of gross final energy consumption in 2020
▪ SDG9 + SDG13: EU transportation emissions have fallen by 9.2%
since 2015 with the largest drop in 2019 to 2020
“Sustainable carbon removal balances those goals in order to meet the needs of the future without
compromising the ability of current generations to meet their own needs” (Morrow and Nicholson,
2021)
Source: www.un.org/fr/sustainable-development-goals

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CONCLUSION AND FUTURE WORK
▪ The enhancement in representing abatement technologies including CDR would provide a
solution for decarbonizing the “hard-to-abate” sectors
▪ The expansion of the sectoral coverage of NDCs and their regular updates require a multi-
sectoral approach which is possible through accounting for the AFOLU sector and water use in
in TIAM-FR
▪ Other questions are related to the impact of some CDR solutions to adaptation to climate
change i.e talking about co-benefits
▪ The relationship between energy production and water use can guide the policy setting in water
scarce region i.e policies for water efficient cooling technologies. Water consumption can
reduce the available water for other sectors and end-uses
▪ Water accounting in the upstream bioenergy sector

17. Thank you for your attention!
Sophie Chlela
sophie.chlela@minesparis.psl.eu

18. 18
REFERENCES
IPCC. “AR6 Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change,” April 2022. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-3/.
IPCC, 2018a. Chapter 2 — Global Warming of 1.5°C. URL https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/chapter/chapter-2/ (accessed 5.04.22)
Fuss, Sabine, William F. Lamb, Max W. Callaghan, Jérôme Hilaire, Felix Creutzig, Thorben Amann, Tim Beringer, et al. “Negative Emissions—Part 2: Costs, Potentials
and Side Effects.” Environmental Research Letters 13, no. 6 (May 2018): https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabf9f.
REN21, 2021. Renewables Global Status Report. REN21. URL https://www.ren21.net/reports/global-status-report/ (accessed 5.04.22)
UNEP, and IUCN. “Nature-Based Solutions for Climate Change Mitigation.” UNEP - UN Environment Programme, November 3, 2021.
http://www.unep.org/resources/report/nature-based-solutions-climate-change-mitigation.
Loulou, Richard, et Maryse Labriet. « ETSAP-TIAM: The TIMES Integrated Assessment Model Part I: Model Structure ». Computational Management Science 5, no 1
(1 février 2008): 7-40. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10287-007-0046-z.
“Forest Loss | Global Forest Review.” https://research.wri.org/gfr/forest-extent-indicators/forest-loss (accessed Apr. 13, 2022)
Eurostat. “Sustainable Development in the European Union — Monitoring Report on Progress towards the SDGs in an EU Context — 2022 Edition,” 2022.
https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/products-statistical-books/-/KS-09-22-019.
European Parliament and the Council (2021b) Proposal for a REGULATION OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL amending Regulations (EU)
2018/841 Available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A52021PC0554&qid=1626940138360 (Accessed: 11 June 2022)
European Parliament and the Council (2021a) Proposal for a DIRECTIVE OF THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT AND OF THE COUNCIL amending Directive (EU)
2018/2001 Available at: https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:52021PC0557 (Accessed: 12 June 2022).

19. 19
ANNEX: BIOMASS ROLE AND THE RESOURCES IN EUROPE
1. Energy Security and Sustainable development
2. Bioenergy represents around 60% of the total renewable energy in the EU in 2019
3. Stabilization of carbon in the forests and soils
Energy Crops Agriculture Forestry Waste
Primary Dry and wet manure coming from
cattle and that can be gasified
Roundwood: Logging residues, pre-
commercial thinnings
Residues from landscape care
management, roadside verges and
abandoned lands
Secondary Olive pits Covers woodchips and pellets,
sawdust and black liquor
Waste sector (solid/tertiary)
The waste obtained from pruning
of permanent crops (namely
orchards, vineyards, olives, citrus,
nuts) and the straw and stubbles
residues.
Biomass residues from different
industries and municipal solid
waste.
Source: ENSPRESO - an open, EU-28 wide, transparent and coherent database of wind,
solar and biomass energy potentials

20. 20
Modifications to the Renewable Energy Directive (REDII) 2018/2001:
▪ New target of renewable energy reaches 40% by 2030
▪ Sustainability criteria for the use of bioenergy
Modifications to the Land Use, Forestry and Agriculture Regulation
Regulation (EU) 2018/841
▪ Carbon removals by natural sinks that will need to remove 310
million tons of CO2 emissions by 2030
▪ Stricter regulations for accounting for emissions
▪ EU Biodiversity and EU Forest Strategies are included
+ Consistency between both amended regulations
CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL IN POLICY
Relevant modifications
European Green Deal (EGD):
Main commitment of the 27 EU Members States to
transform the EU in a “climate neutral” continent by 2050
The EU Climate Law makes these targets legally binding
Introduction of the proposal for the legislative tools

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THE ROLE OF FORESTS
Drivers of tree cover loss by region, 2001-2021
Inra, “Quel rôle pour les forêts et la filière forêt-bois françaises dans
l’atténuation du changement climatique ?,” p. 8
Source: Forest Loss, Global Forest Review, WRI
La FAO estime qu’au niveau mondial la déforestation et la
dégradation des forêts est responsable d’environ 11% des
émissions de CO2

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FRESH WATER WITHDRAWALS-NDC