Conference_20130305_Johan Peter Paludan
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The document discusses different value creation logics including the industrial logic focused on economies of scale, standardization, and automation; the dream society logic prioritizing emotions and branding over functionality; the creative man logic emphasizing individualized production and innovation; and the knowledge society logic centered around developing and commercializing new knowledge. It also examines trends like digitalization, decentralization, and the transition towards more diverse, personalized, and experience-based forms of production and consumption.
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Conference_20130305_Johan Peter Paludan
- 1. Which world and which European businesses in 2020? Johan Peter Paludan
- 2. The Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies • Founded by Thorkil Kristensen in 1970 • Private, non-profit organisation • Memberbased – members i DK,S, N • Crossdisciplinarian think tank • Staff 25
- 3. Chance favours only the prepared mind. Louis Pasteur
- 4. Ways into the future - Trends – short term (fashion, bussiness) - Prognoses (ex. Economic growth, demographics) - Creativity (out of the box thinking, transdisciplinarian) - Megatrends (globalisation) - Scenarios (environmental devl.) - Paradigms/Logics - Back Casting (point of departure: a preferred future) - Wild Cards (Mohammed-drawings)
- 5. 15 Megatrends 1. Knowledge 2. New technology 3. Acceleration 4. Hypercomplexity 5. Globalisation 6. Commercialisation 7. Affluence 8. Democratisation 9. Polarisation 10.Immaterialisation 11.Individualisation 12.Networks 13.Health 14.Environment 15.Ageing
- 6. LOGICS
- 7. Logics, so far • Hunter/gatherer • Agricultural • Industrial • ?
- 8. The four value added logics Emotions & stories DreamSociety logic Standardisation Diversity Automation Taylored Specialisation Diy Maintenance Interactive Industrial Creative Man society logic and Anarchonomy logic Knowledge society logic Rational R&D
- 9. INDUSTRY LOGIC • Economies of scale • Massproduction of identical products • To produce and to consume •Automation •Outsourcing •In services too!
- 10. DREAM SOCIETY LOGIC From function to emotions •The immaterial side of a product more important than the material • Branding and brand loyalty • ’Superfluous’
- 11. Dream Society – the theory • Driving forces: - the accelerating rate of change: we are already entering the Dream Society - the immaterialisation of demand - automation of whatever can be automated - the revolt against the tyranny of reason
- 12. Evolution of consumption 1800 1600 Totally superfluous 1400 Luxury 1200 Important Basic consumption 1000 Necessities 800 600 400 200 0 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
- 13. 100 ml 43Euro
- 15. From Dung to Coffee Brew With No Aftertaste
- 16. The six new market profiles • The market for adventure • The market for love and belonging • The care market • The who-am-I market • The market for peace of mind • The market for convictions
- 17. Future market segments and past market categories Love and friendship Peace of mind Conviction Adventure Identity Food Care Housing Transport Energy Finance ? Electronics
- 18. Stories • To send signals about the good life • The great stories aren’t what they used to be, and yet…. • What is abundant is ’cheap’ - we go for the scarce elements
- 19. Scarce resources in the Dream Society ARE NOT : BUT : • Information • Attention • Products • Care • Channels • Genuine interest • Opportunities • Time • Satisfaction • Trust • Good Stories • Meaning
- 20. Create value! What is the meaning Of what you do? Meaning Solution Product Technology
- 21. CREATIVE MAN LOGIC • From experience to identification • Creativity and innovation in work and consumption • The prosumer • Individualised massproduction
- 23. Anarchism + Economy = ANARCONOMY Download FREE report from IFF: www.iff.dk/dk/anarconomy.asp
- 24. Anarconomy - basics • Networksociety • Open source • Share knowledge without losing it • Free • Copyright versus unique solutions/experiences • The consumer takes over the means of production
- 25. 3D printers
- 26. Contour Crafting – print a house
- 27. From centrallised Photovoltaic facade energy systems Trees to decentralised Greenery air/watercleaning production Moss Thrash = food Intelligent surface Furniture recycleable
- 28. tio d tri lise n A wildcard? dis ntra bu ce De Decentralisatio Decentralised development n: everything is in the perifery De prod ce ntr uctio ali n se d
- 29. Driving forces towards anarconomy TECHNOLOGY KNOWLEDGE PEOPLE DECENTRALISA- TION Ubiquitous IT and Transparency Surplus and a will to Death of Distance internet share Dismanteling of Free content and Easy networking Decentralised technology knowledge (copyleft) (social sites) markets – P2P monopolies Basically free copying Knowledge easy to Social capital more Decentralised of knowledge find (search important than organisation – products functions) material capital networks
- 30. Anarconomy vs. Commercial economy • Free copyleft • Paid for, copyright • Based on volunteers • Based on salaried labour • Produced/distributed • Produced/distributed centrally decentralised • Updated now and then • Continously updated • The producer is responsible • No one is responsible. • Good at streamlining • Not good at streamlining Challenges and supplements each other
- 31. Digtialisation • Everything that can be digitalised, will be digitalised • The price of all that is digitalised approaches 0. • New business models needed
- 32. Knowledge society logic • Develop, transmit, use and sell knowledge • Bussiness service: knowledge on the interplay between technology and customers • Knowledge embedded in products and systems • Develop new knowledge through research • Education in focus
- 33. - and so what? • So: know thy logic!
- 34. Value creation logics Emotional DreamSociety logic Standardisation Diversity Automatisation Man-made Specialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Knowledge society logic Rational
- 35. Value creation logics Leadership Emotional Management DreamSociety logic Charisma Scientific Standardisation Diversity Automatisation Man-made Specialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Empowerment Facilitate Servant leader Knowledge society logic Dual: Rational purse or
- 36. Value creation logics: Motivation Emotional ‘Hooked’ DreamSociety logic Excited 9-17 Standardisation Diversity Automatisation Man-made Specialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Empowerment Knowledge society logic ‘Going Rational places’
- 37. Value creation logics: Marketing Emotional ‘Seduction’ Data DreamSociety logic Push Push Standardisation Diversity Automatisation Man-made Specialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Interactive Data pull Knowledge society logic Informatio Rational n
- 38. Value creation logics: Innovation Emotional DreamSociety logic Storybased Closed Standardisation Diversity Automatisation Man-made Specialisation Diy Involvement Industrial Creative Man society- Logic and logic Anarchonomy Open User driven Knowledge society logic Knowledg Rational e
- 39. The market situation for Nordic companies 2020 • Growth rates - moderate • Barriers to growth - humans • Global competition - polarisation: cheap labour vs. Innovation/automation • Future markets - realistic: the usual; - hopefully: BRIC and beyond • Regulation - the more automated, the better
- 40. Thankyou Stay curious Read on: www.cifs.dk