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What’s on Your Horizon? Process, Technologies, and Impact of the  2007 Horizon Report Spring 2007 CNI Task Force Meeting | Phoenix, AZ Alan Levine, NMC Bryan Alexander, NITLE Cyprien Lomas, UBC
Perils of Predicting the Future creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by kk+
R&D in Educational Technology creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by inocuo
Visionary Perspective  creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by cogdogblog
Englebart’s Organizational Layers  "A Strategy for Organizational Fitness," 1991 "Toward High-Performance Organizations", 1992
Looking at the Horizon  creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by wondrous22
Not About Being “Right”  creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by dogfaceboy
Time to Adoption  != Time To Viable  creative commons licensed  flickr  photo   by dogfaceboy
Horizon Project Advisory Board
the process research dialog
trends ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
challenges ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Funnel Process  creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by chill Sandbox: Less Than One Year Horizon Audience response   Lecture capture   Wikis   Collaboration Tools Online Communication Tools Shibboleth   Multimedia Production Tools PODCASTING   Presentation technology   Web 2.0 & Social Software Portable Apps Flash Video Format Online Project Management Tools DIGITAL "AIR" Classroom communication systems Content Mapping Tools HTML Templates & Portfolios Learning Management Systems Social Networking Tools Image-rich communications Easily Accessible Projection Systems Mobile Computers Mobile/ Geographic Games RSS and Syndication Tools Audio Capture/Distribution Tools Group Collaboration Software   Portal Technologies Pervasive Campus Wireless   Personal Authoring Systems E-Portfolios   More Training & Release Time   Mashups Digital Space   Textbooks 2.0 Data Visualization Tools   Automated Lecture Capture   Show Me the Content   Comparative Image displays   Mechanical Turk   Moore's Law of Education   Grid Computing   Relationship Visualization   Targeted Marketing Universal Design for Learning
Funnel Process  creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by chill Sandbox: Two to Three Year Horizon Teleconferencing, video conferencing, video chat Tablet PCs Social networking Miniaturization Use of public datasets   Personal broadcasting Better interface design Portable Devices   Personalized computing Gaming Video via broadband Audio Books Mainstream gaming platforms   Academic Publishing 2.0 Going to the Source Cognitive tools Trusted Reference Sources IPTV Google AdWords Specialized media tools Audience Created Content Non-Linear Narrative   YouTube for College   Web-based Productivity Apps   Digital Asset Management   Social Network Service   Precise Physical Tracking / Remote instrumentation   Video Message Boards Peer-to-peer filesharing   Video & audio sharing   Gaming to learn   High Definition Video   Personal Broadcasting   Social bookmarking   Video Blogs   multiplayer environments   Skype, IM, synchronized communication tools  Recommendation Systems   Specialized Media Tools
Funnel Process  creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by chill Sandbox: Four to Five Year Horizon Ubiquitous computing and telephony   Information searching technologies   Personal Learning Environments   Social Community sites  Remote Labs   Synthetic/Virtual Worlds   Semantic Web   Tagging/folksonomy   Geo-aware computing  Google Books   Text comprehension and abstracting system   Geo-aware social applications   Wi-Max for cell phones eBooks  Mobile devices on steroids   3d shared immersion experiences   VR simulations   User preference engines   Ubiquitous broadband   Bio security systems   Media Rich Social Network Tools   Digital Notetaking   Social Bookmarking Wearable computing Videogames as learning platforms  2-D and 3-D visualization tools   Pervasive Broadband and Wireless   Implanted technologies   Internet-wide User-centric Identity Systems   Real-Time Language Translation   Robust Transcribing and Captioning tools   Intelligent Tutoring Virtual Meeting Software  Narrative Presentation Technologies   Collaborative Writing / Editing   Next generation search tools   Nokia Lifeblog  Ad Hoc Networks   Context and location aware technologies  Browser-based applications   Web 2.0 technologies  Smartboard technologies   3G (and beyond) Mobile phones Person-Computer Interfacing   Video & audio sharing
The Short List ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
topics
From classifying and tagging to creating and uploading, today’s “audience” is very much in control of the content we find online. This active audience is finding new ways to contribute, communicate, and collaborate, using a variety of small and easy tools that put the power to develop and catalog the Internet into the hands of the people. The largest and fastest growing websites on the Internet are all making use of this approach, which is redefining how we think about the web and how it might be applied to learning. user-created content ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)
social networking The expectation that a website will remember the user is well established. Social networking takes this several steps further; the website knows who the user’s friends are, and may also know people that the user would like to meet or things the user would like to do. Even beyond that, social networking sites facilitate introduction and communication by providing a space for people to connect around a topic of common interest. These sites are fundamentally about community —communities of practice as well as social communities. ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)
The convergence of ubiquitous broadband, portable devices, and tiny computers has changed our concept of what a phone is meant to be. A pocket-sized connection to the digital world, the mobile phone keeps us in touch with our families, friends, and colleagues by more than just voice. Our phones are address books, file storage devices, cameras, video recorders, way-finders, and hand-held portals to the Internet—and they don’t stop there. The ubiquity of mobile phones, combined with their many cap-abilities, makes them an ideal platform for educational content and activities. We are only just beginning to take advantage of the possibilities they will offer. mobile phones ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)
In the last year, interest in virtual worlds has grown considerably, fueled in no small part by the tremendous press coverage of examples like Second Life.  Campuses and businesses have established locations in these worlds in much the same way they were creating websites a dozen years ago. In the same way that the number and sophistication of websites grew very quickly as more people began to browse, virtual locations will become more common and more mature as the trend continues. Virtual worlds offer flexible spaces for learning and exploration—educational use of these spaces is already underway and growing. virtual worlds ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)
ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS) The time-honored activities of academic research and scholarly activity have benefited from the explosion of access to research materials and the ability to collaborate at a distance. At the same time, the processes of research, review, publication, and tenure are challenged by the same trends. The proliferation of audience-generated content combined with open-access content models is changing the way we think about scholarship and publication—and the way these activities are conducted. new scholarship & emerging forms of publication
The term “serious games” has been coined to describe games that have an educational purpose and non-entertainment goals. Educators are taking a hard look at one type of serious game, massively multiplayer educational games, and finding strong po-tential for teaching and learning. These games are still time-consuming and often expensive to produce, but practical examples can easily be found.  Interest is high and developments in the open-source arena are bringing them closer to mainstream adoption year by year. massively multiplayer educational gaming  ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS)
Differing Horizons- Edgy Enough?  Creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by Gavin Mackintosh
Blogosphere Reaction  Creative commons licensed  flickr  photo  by vaxZine
Heard Around the Blogs ,[object Object],[object Object],I was a bit nonplussed by its choice of technologies… that the technologies and modes identified in this years’ list have already achieved significant impact. There is one self-evident conclusion to draw from this. This year’s Horizon Report is not futurology: it is history.
Heard Around the Blogs ,[object Object],[object Object],Yes it's another 'future trends' article, but I like what seems to be (when compared to all the gee-whiz homages to 2L and mobile web we've been seeing) an almost contrarian set of "opportunity areas" - and a list that is surprisingly in accord with my own thinking… It's that it's a list that stridently follows the waves, even when there's nothing really there.
Heard Around the Blogs ,[object Object],[object Object],What was fascinating (and maybe a bit frustrating, but in a good way) about the process was how we went from these sprawling lists down to a list of 6 that actually seem to bear some resemblance to conceivable futures, not ‘wished for’ futures, not ‘if only everyone would listen to me’ futures, but ones that bear some resemblance to where these slow moving beasts called post-secondary institutions will get to.
Campus Perspectives ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Research Agenda http://horizon. nmc . org/wiki/Research_Agenda
K-12 Horizon Project horizonproject . wikispaces .com
group discussion
www.nmc.org/horizon www.educause.edu/eli   © 2007 The New Media Consortium. This work is the intellectual property of the author(s). Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the author.

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What's in Your Horizon? (2007)

  • 1. What’s on Your Horizon? Process, Technologies, and Impact of the 2007 Horizon Report Spring 2007 CNI Task Force Meeting | Phoenix, AZ Alan Levine, NMC Bryan Alexander, NITLE Cyprien Lomas, UBC
  • 2. Perils of Predicting the Future creative commons licensed flickr photo by kk+
  • 3. R&D in Educational Technology creative commons licensed flickr photo by inocuo
  • 4. Visionary Perspective creative commons licensed flickr photo by cogdogblog
  • 5. Englebart’s Organizational Layers "A Strategy for Organizational Fitness," 1991 "Toward High-Performance Organizations", 1992
  • 6. Looking at the Horizon creative commons licensed flickr photo by wondrous22
  • 7. Not About Being “Right” creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy
  • 8. Time to Adoption != Time To Viable creative commons licensed flickr photo by dogfaceboy
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13. Funnel Process creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Sandbox: Less Than One Year Horizon Audience response Lecture capture Wikis Collaboration Tools Online Communication Tools Shibboleth Multimedia Production Tools PODCASTING Presentation technology Web 2.0 & Social Software Portable Apps Flash Video Format Online Project Management Tools DIGITAL "AIR" Classroom communication systems Content Mapping Tools HTML Templates & Portfolios Learning Management Systems Social Networking Tools Image-rich communications Easily Accessible Projection Systems Mobile Computers Mobile/ Geographic Games RSS and Syndication Tools Audio Capture/Distribution Tools Group Collaboration Software Portal Technologies Pervasive Campus Wireless Personal Authoring Systems E-Portfolios More Training & Release Time Mashups Digital Space Textbooks 2.0 Data Visualization Tools Automated Lecture Capture Show Me the Content Comparative Image displays Mechanical Turk Moore's Law of Education Grid Computing Relationship Visualization Targeted Marketing Universal Design for Learning
  • 14. Funnel Process creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Sandbox: Two to Three Year Horizon Teleconferencing, video conferencing, video chat Tablet PCs Social networking Miniaturization Use of public datasets Personal broadcasting Better interface design Portable Devices Personalized computing Gaming Video via broadband Audio Books Mainstream gaming platforms Academic Publishing 2.0 Going to the Source Cognitive tools Trusted Reference Sources IPTV Google AdWords Specialized media tools Audience Created Content Non-Linear Narrative YouTube for College Web-based Productivity Apps Digital Asset Management Social Network Service Precise Physical Tracking / Remote instrumentation Video Message Boards Peer-to-peer filesharing Video & audio sharing Gaming to learn High Definition Video Personal Broadcasting Social bookmarking Video Blogs multiplayer environments Skype, IM, synchronized communication tools Recommendation Systems Specialized Media Tools
  • 15. Funnel Process creative commons licensed flickr photo by chill Sandbox: Four to Five Year Horizon Ubiquitous computing and telephony Information searching technologies Personal Learning Environments Social Community sites Remote Labs Synthetic/Virtual Worlds Semantic Web Tagging/folksonomy Geo-aware computing Google Books Text comprehension and abstracting system Geo-aware social applications Wi-Max for cell phones eBooks Mobile devices on steroids 3d shared immersion experiences VR simulations User preference engines Ubiquitous broadband Bio security systems Media Rich Social Network Tools Digital Notetaking Social Bookmarking Wearable computing Videogames as learning platforms 2-D and 3-D visualization tools Pervasive Broadband and Wireless Implanted technologies Internet-wide User-centric Identity Systems Real-Time Language Translation Robust Transcribing and Captioning tools Intelligent Tutoring Virtual Meeting Software Narrative Presentation Technologies Collaborative Writing / Editing Next generation search tools Nokia Lifeblog Ad Hoc Networks Context and location aware technologies Browser-based applications Web 2.0 technologies Smartboard technologies 3G (and beyond) Mobile phones Person-Computer Interfacing Video & audio sharing
  • 16.
  • 18. From classifying and tagging to creating and uploading, today’s “audience” is very much in control of the content we find online. This active audience is finding new ways to contribute, communicate, and collaborate, using a variety of small and easy tools that put the power to develop and catalog the Internet into the hands of the people. The largest and fastest growing websites on the Internet are all making use of this approach, which is redefining how we think about the web and how it might be applied to learning. user-created content ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)
  • 19. social networking The expectation that a website will remember the user is well established. Social networking takes this several steps further; the website knows who the user’s friends are, and may also know people that the user would like to meet or things the user would like to do. Even beyond that, social networking sites facilitate introduction and communication by providing a space for people to connect around a topic of common interest. These sites are fundamentally about community —communities of practice as well as social communities. ADOPTION HORIZON NEAR HORIZON (ONE YEAR OR LESS)
  • 20. The convergence of ubiquitous broadband, portable devices, and tiny computers has changed our concept of what a phone is meant to be. A pocket-sized connection to the digital world, the mobile phone keeps us in touch with our families, friends, and colleagues by more than just voice. Our phones are address books, file storage devices, cameras, video recorders, way-finders, and hand-held portals to the Internet—and they don’t stop there. The ubiquity of mobile phones, combined with their many cap-abilities, makes them an ideal platform for educational content and activities. We are only just beginning to take advantage of the possibilities they will offer. mobile phones ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)
  • 21. In the last year, interest in virtual worlds has grown considerably, fueled in no small part by the tremendous press coverage of examples like Second Life. Campuses and businesses have established locations in these worlds in much the same way they were creating websites a dozen years ago. In the same way that the number and sophistication of websites grew very quickly as more people began to browse, virtual locations will become more common and more mature as the trend continues. Virtual worlds offer flexible spaces for learning and exploration—educational use of these spaces is already underway and growing. virtual worlds ADOPTION HORIZON MID HORIZON (TWO TO THREE YEARS)
  • 22. ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS) The time-honored activities of academic research and scholarly activity have benefited from the explosion of access to research materials and the ability to collaborate at a distance. At the same time, the processes of research, review, publication, and tenure are challenged by the same trends. The proliferation of audience-generated content combined with open-access content models is changing the way we think about scholarship and publication—and the way these activities are conducted. new scholarship & emerging forms of publication
  • 23. The term “serious games” has been coined to describe games that have an educational purpose and non-entertainment goals. Educators are taking a hard look at one type of serious game, massively multiplayer educational games, and finding strong po-tential for teaching and learning. These games are still time-consuming and often expensive to produce, but practical examples can easily be found. Interest is high and developments in the open-source arena are bringing them closer to mainstream adoption year by year. massively multiplayer educational gaming ADOPTION HORIZON FAR HORIZON (FOUR TO FIVE YEARS)
  • 24. Differing Horizons- Edgy Enough? Creative commons licensed flickr photo by Gavin Mackintosh
  • 25. Blogosphere Reaction Creative commons licensed flickr photo by vaxZine
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.
  • 30. Research Agenda http://horizon. nmc . org/wiki/Research_Agenda
  • 31. K-12 Horizon Project horizonproject . wikispaces .com
  • 33. www.nmc.org/horizon www.educause.edu/eli © 2007 The New Media Consortium. This work is the intellectual property of the author(s). Permission is granted for this material to be shared for non-commercial, educational purposes, provided that this copyright statement appears on the reproduced materials and notice is given that the copying is by permission of the author. To disseminate otherwise or to republish requires written permission from the author.

Editor's Notes

  1. Hello and introductions. Our plan is to spend as little as much time presenting and move to a group activity for the last 1/3 of our session