currently 75% of Great Plains is farmed/ranched, generating 5% of the region's total revenues. Long-term sustainability threatened by increasing frequency severity droughts, heat waves, soil erosion, dust storms - with increasing probability of long-term dust bowl. Placing several million large wind turbines on just three percent of the Great Plains would generate 100% of U.S. current power consumption, while providing farmers/ranchers with royalties twice as large as from ranching/farming. This would enable regenerative restoration of soils and carbon storage by shifting to deep-rooted, drought resistant native prairie grasses. Bison co-evolved with prairie grasses, and offer another source of revenues from healthy meat production. Eco-tourism offers an additional revenue source, given the restoration of migratory bird flyways. And soil carbon storage offers another revenue opportunity. In sharp contrast to business-as-usual, an inevitable Austerity driven future, this win-win-wind strategy is a Prosperity driven future. This is the slide presentation that visualizes an accompanying paper also posted on my slideshare site.
6. Business-as-Usual CO2 Emissions Trigger
Great Plains Dust Bowlification this Century
Dallas, South Dakota 1936
Great Plains Dust Bowl in 1930s
Again this century, but worse
8. 95% U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures
of
Merit
Great
Plains
area
1,200,000
mi2
Provide
100%
U.S.
energy
400,000
3MW
wind
turbines
PlaCorm
footprint
6
mi2
Large
Wyoming
Strip
Mine
>6
mi2
Total
WindFarm
spacing
area
37,500
mi2
SLll
available
for
farming
and
prairie
restoraLon
90%+
(34,000
mi2)
Cost-‐free
US
CO2
emissions
80%
reduced
at
zero
cost
9. US Onshore Wind Potential
(TWh, billions of kWh)
for comparison
U.S. total power consumption in 2012 was 5,000 TWh
10. Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70% of
Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to
8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural communities,
while also enabling one of world’s largest
restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South
Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =
Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
10
11. Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue
Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
non-wind farm
windpower farm
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
$0
$60
windpower royalty
$200
$0
farm commodity revenues
$50
$64
govt. subsidy
12. >6
mi2
1
Wyoming
Strip
Mine
13,125
mi2
land
disturbed
by
surface
mining
40%
of
U.S.
electricity
6
mi2
plaCorm
footprint
400k
turbines
3,750
mi2
spacing
area
100%
of
U.S.
electricity 12
14. Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing
Cellulosic ethanol
Corn ethanol
offshore
area
needed for
100%
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage refer to storage of
Solar-battery and Wind-battery of these intermittent renewable the
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
intermittent solar & wind in plug-in electric vehicles
COMPARISON power require 30 to 60 times less land area than
Solar PV & Wind OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
biomass, require 95% less water, and produce zero emissions
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
22. Great Plains: Dust Bowlification or Dollarization?
ActionMapping Wind farms
for Rural Prosperity & Urban Clean Energy
EXISTING
75% land farmed/ranched
5% revenues of Great Plains
Dust Bowlification looming
Water Aquifer deep decline
OPPORTUNE
3% land in Wind Farms
10+% revenues Great Plains
100% US power generation
Dust Bowl prevention option
Prairie grasses/bison option
Water Regeneration option
23. Existing U.S. Transmission Grid System
NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012
(a) Existing transmission grid representation in ReEDS
Designed for Fossil, Nuclear & Hydro Power
NOT Wind & Solar Power
24. Opportune New Transmission Links
NREL, Renewable Electricity Future Outlook, 2012
Figure ES-9. New transmission capacity additions and conceptual location in the 80%
RE-ITI scenario
Designed for Wind & Solar Power Expansion
25. On the Verge of Convergences
GRIDS
BUILDINGS
VEHICLES
Smart Integration Eliminating Oil Dependency
LINKING 1 TW Smart Grid w/ 3 TW Vehicle fleet
26. PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storage
and bi-directional power flows could stabilize largescale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with
3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus
8–38% of the fleet (depending on battery capacity)
providing operating reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable
energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
27. Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis Summary
PHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
ENERGY POTENTIAL
U.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel
84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million).
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIAL
A shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion
gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million
barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL
~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx,
40% urban PM10, 80% SOx;
BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOx nationwide (from higher coal
generation). higher coal generation - but none if from wind power.
ONLY IF from
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional
U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
30. Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally
Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015
Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines
31. Windy
Grassland
regions
of
the
World
Source:
h.p://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html
32. 20 Year 100% Global RE Scenario
IF conventional,
then 17 TW
OR
WIND TURBINES - 5MW - 1% in place
25%/yr
growth rate
SOLAR PV ROOFTOPS - .003MW - <1% in place
40%/yr
growth rate
CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER - 300MW- <1% in place
SOLAR PV POWER PLANTS - 300MW - <1% in place
Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by
2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009
IF RE + DeepDive Efficiency
then 11.5 TW
33. Spurring Emission-Free Cities by Using
COLLABORATIVE
INNOVATION
NETWORKs
COINs
Ad hoc self-organized groups of
Self-Motivated Citizens, geographically dispersed,
focused on accomplishing a specific goal
34. Web-led COINs using smart devices to create ASSETs Apps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge
Leveraging the funnel of knowledge and learning-by-doing
35. COIN MAPPING Rural & Urban ASSETs
Geospatial Mapping
Web-based visualization of city ASSETS:
harnessing deep efficiency savings, onsite solar,
locally distributed power and microgrid network.
Tech-knowledge roadmapping
Web-accessible tool library encompassing spectrum of resources for learning,
applied knowledge, capacity building, skills development, training, specialized
competencies, across a myriad of relevant domains (technical, financial, policy,
regulatory, communications, etc)
Action mapping
Identify the goal.
Identify what needs doing to reach that
goal.
Identify actions for people to do.
Identify the effective information
required to complete the action.
emission-free city
36. ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS
ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE
Goal of becoming emission free
In collaboration with the Association for the Advancement of
Sustainable Higher Education
37. ENGAGING THE SMARTS & HEARTS
ON CAMPUSES SPANNING THE GLOBE
TO SEIZE THE OPPORTUNITY TO MAP & MAKE
EMISSION FREE COMMUNITIES
Mayors Leading the Way on Climate Protection
1,060 U.S. Cities as of 3/22/2013
70% of U.S. cities
with 30,000+
citizens are
signatories to the
Mayors’ Climate
Protection
Commitment