189 slides discussing a collaborative information network (COIN) to help citizens catalyze combustion-free, emission-free campuses, cities, and companies, and transition to electrification powered by solar, wind, and efficiency gains.

2. mobile knowbility
Michael P. Totten
CEO, AssetsforLife
Denver, CO 80205
totten.michael@gmail.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/
michaelptotten
AssetsforLife
Cognitive & endorphin flow, experienced at 2500 mpg

3. GreenATP
Green Applications & Tipping Points
Presentation at the
UCLA Anderson School of Business
by
Michael P. Totten
Chief Advisor, Green Economies
Conservation International
June 09-10, 2011
Data, Information, knowledge,
and wise decisions are the new
abundant less cost-and-risk
resource currency

4. UNACCEPTABLE ^

6. Political
Power
Corporate
Greed
Media Lies &
Disinformation

7. Global Fossil Fuel Subsidies 2011-2015
IMF $5.5 Trillion/yr Assessment May 2015

8. Disruptive energy futures, Amory B. Lovins, Cofounder and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute, Keynote,
Wirth Chair Luncheon, U of Colorado Denver, 06 Oct 2017, http://www.rmi.org
Solutions to:
effective * solutions to * big global * problems [—like * climate change, * nuclear
y country’s security and prosperity. And if you like any of Reinventing Fire’s outco

9. GLOBAL
NATIONAL
STATE
CITY
NEIGHBOR
HOOD
LIFE’S COMPLEX DYNAMIC SYSTEMS INTERACT IN NESTED
HIERARCHIES THAT REQURE EFFORTS AT MULTI-SCALES

10. IMPERATIVE TO ACCELERATE
MASSIVE MULTI-SCALING OF
CITIZEN CHANGE AGENTS
COMMITTED TO ACTIONABLE CHANGE
OF
PUBLIC POLICIES
&
MARKET PRACTICES

11. Ready for
Learning
Ready for
Resistance
Ready for
Change
Ready for
Frustration
Organization Change Capacity 0
0
100
100
Leadership Change Capacity
http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/109019/chapters/The-Organizational-Change-Readiness-Assessment.aspx
CHANGE READINESS MATRIX

12. Global Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy

13. Do you support or oppose powering all U.S. energy entirely by clean & renewable sources like wind,
solar, & hydropower by 2050? That means homes, businesses, cars, trucks.

15. Law of Accelerating Returns
Information
technologies
Communication
technologies
Miniaturized
technologies
COIN
technologies

16. Large'Numbers'Law'
IoE'
Internet'of'Everything'

17. rs) Visions
y
a
ew
et
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
1995 2000 2014 2020
People Online
Smartphones
People Online (billions)Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
Two Explosive Exponential Trends driving
IP addressable Internet of Everything (IoE)
Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen-
Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013
(Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP,
MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor

18. 5Michael Enescu keynote – “From Cloud to Fog & The Internet of Things” – Chicago, LinuxCon 2014
7.26.8 7.6
50
2010 2015 2020
0
40
30
20
10
Billionsofdevices
25
12.5
Inflection
point
Timeline
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011
50 Billion
smart devices
Adoption 5x faster
than electricity, telephony
Michael(Enescu,(CTO,(Open(Standards(IniNaNve((OSI)(keynote(–(“From(Cloud(to(Fog(&(The(Internet(of(Things”(–(Chicago,(LinuxCon(2014((
1Michael Enescu keynote – “From Cloud to Fog & The Internet of Things” – Chicago, LinuxCon 2014
1
Michael Enescu
CTO Open Source Initiatives
LinuxCon 2014 – August 21

19. u ELECTRIFICATION
u DIGITIZATION
u DIGITALIZATION
u MASS MINIMIZATION
u MINIATURIZATION
u MODULARIZATION
u INTERNETIZATION (IPv6)
SUPER-EXPONENTIAL RATES
TECHNOLOGICAL DISRUPTION
CONVERGENCE

20. Converging Technologies

21. Personal Pocket
SuperComputers
SuperComputer
Networkers
Human & Knowledge
Capital
Social, Civic & Intelligence
Capital

22. http://www.statista.com/statistics/266488/forecast-of-mobile-app-downloads/
APP Use Growing Exponentiallymillions

23. COMMUNICATIONS ENERGY MOBILITY
1ST Industrial
Revolu<on
2nd Industrial
Revolu<on
3rd Industrial
Revolu<on
Modeled after Jeremy Rifkin, Third Industrial Revolution, How Lateral Power Is Transforming Energy, the Economy, and the World, 2013

24. 1. The ecosystem is the new warehouse
2. The ecosystem is also the new supply chain
3. The network effect is the new driver for scale
4. Data is the new dollar
5. Community management is the new human
resource management
6. Liquidity management is the new inventory control
7. Curation and repetition are the new quality control
8. User journeys are the new sales funnels
9. Distribution is the new destination
10. Behavior design is the new loyalty program
11. Data science is the new business process optimization
12. Social feedback is the new sales commission
13. Algorithms are the new decision makers
14. Real-time customization is the new market research
15. Plug-and-play is the new business development
16. The invisible hand is the new iron fist
Source: PLATFORM THINKING
Copyright © 2015
Sangeet Paul Choudary,
Geoffrey Parker and
Marshall Van Alstyne
THE
PLATFORM
MANIFESTO
From Pipes to Plalorms – Linear to Networks
Sangeet Paul Choudary, Marshall Van Alstyne, Geoffrey Parker

25. Law of Accelerating Returns
COllaborative Intelligence/Innovation
Networks (COINs) another exponential trend
Wikipedia, the world’s largest and fastest growing
encyclopedia, premier example of an open source
COIN to date. It is one of the top 5 to 7 daily
visited Internet sites in the world (monthly
readership of ~500 million worldwide).
34 million free usable articles in 288 languages
that have been written by over 50 million
registered users and numerous anonymous
contributors worldwide.
15,000 volumes equivalent to Encyclopedia
Britannica.
100 million hours to create Wikipedia over the
first decade. By comparison, Americans spend
132 million hours each day on Facebook (430
million hours each day worldwide); and
Americans watch 100 million hours of TV ads
every weekend.
There are thousands of open source COINs
currently operating
Proliferation of Open Source COINs
Collaborative Intelligence/Innovation Networks

26. Cognitive Leisure

27. Catalyzing Collaborative Innovation Networks
Daylighting
HVAC
LEDs
Buildings
Pumps/Compressors
Water
Chillers
Landscaping
Plugloads
Financing
Mobility
Architecture
Motors
EVs
Windows
Solar PV
Solar thermal
codes
standards
FITs decoupling+
incentives
design
smart sensor networkssolar gardens
LEED ++
zero waste
beyond zero net
visualization
geospatial mapping
BIPV
Albedo surfaces
integration
APPs
complete streets
bikes
MOOCs
wind
biogeothermal
conservationprocurement
aggregation
E-Lab
epeat
collaboration innovation networks
peer-to-peer
10xE
microgrids
COIN – Ad hoc self-
organized groups of
self-motivated citizens,
geographically
dispersed, focused on
accomplishing a
specific mission

28. ! !2!!
!
Figure%1.%The%Coolfarming%Process%–%lessons%from%the%beehive%as%a%metaphor%
Coolfarming! works! by! unlocking! the! creative! potential! of! Collaborative! Innovation!
Networks!(COINs).!COINs!are!made!up!of!groups!of!selfGmotivated!individuals!linked!by!the!
Lessons from the beehive as metaphor
Peter Gloor et al., Coolfarming – Lessons from the Beehive to Increase Organizational Creativity,
MIT Center for Collective Intelligence

29. swarm creativity
Figure 2.2. COIN-driven innovation process.
Peter Gloor (2017) Swarm Leadership and the Collective Mind Using
Collaborative Innovation Networks to Build a Better Business, Blackwell
Publishing; Peter Gloor (2006) Swarm Creativity: Competitive Process
through Collaborative Innovation Networks, Oxford Press. MIT Center
for Collective Intelligence, http://cci.mit.edu/.
COIN-driven Innovation Process
Social Capital Is the Currency of COINs

30. Excerpts from ASSETsforLife.net – a BLOOM™
Book-Like, Online, Open Source, Multimedia platform

31. BUZZING VROOMs – Virtual & Augmented Realty

32. A Smartphone/VR/AR Platform for
Citizens, Campuses, Cities & Companies to
Envision & Enact a Benign Planetary
Grand Acceleration – NOW NOT LATER!

33. HOMELAND SECURITIES
ShiRing Civil infrastructure to
Island-Capable MicroGrids
REAL

34. Augmented Reality apps

35. ASSETs
Apps for
Spurring
Solar and
Efficiency
Techknowledge
http://www.critigen.com/solution/solar-map-standard-edition

36. COIN ASSET– EXAMPLES OF APPLIED ACTION!
Growing ASSETsTACTICS
The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding
topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for
shading impacts and determines “hotspots” for solar PV.
Solution
MARFORRES Energy Program selected Critigen to provide its
Solar Site Assessment solution at multiple installations to
analyze the opportunity for efficient solar system installation.
Critigen Solar Site Assessment is a remote solar assessment tool
developed from Critigen’s Solar Mapping program that models
the most important factors in Solar PV production: solar access,
shading, rooftop azimuth and pitch, and other local variables, to
determine a buildings solar potential.
Critigen performed more than 10 Solar Site Assessments for the
MARFORRES Energy Program, providing them with graphical and
tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter
resolution solar energy production potential and graphically
depicts where on the roof the “hotspots” for solar are. Reports
include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building-
level solar potential roll-ups. The site assessments were
customized to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and
considerations and to meet other needs driven by DOD and
legislative mandates.
Result
Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable
information in the hands of facility and energy managers at
MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites
for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site
selection for future systems, one assessment revealed
apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was
unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment
allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to
construct the portion of the system that had been overdesigned
by the installer.
Costing less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV
system, Critigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide
an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems
Rooftop obstructions and perimeter setbacks were
applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more
accurate solar potential calculations.
One Solar Site Assessment
allowed MARFORRES to avoid
more than $60,000 in costs
The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding
topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for
shading impacts and determines “hotspots” for solar PV.
Solution
MARFORRES Energy Program selected Critigen to provide its
Solar Site Assessment solution at multiple installations to
analyze the opportunity for efficient solar system installation.
Critigen Solar Site Assessment is a remote solar assessment tool
developed from Critigen’s Solar Mapping program that models
the most important factors in Solar PV production: solar access,
shading, rooftop azimuth and pitch, and other local variables, to
determine a buildings solar potential.
Critigen performed more than 10 Solar Site Assessments for the
MARFORRES Energy Program, providing them with graphical and
tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter
resolution solar energy production potential and graphically
depicts where on the roof the “hotspots” for solar are. Reports
include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building-
level solar potential roll-ups. The site assessments were
customized to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and
considerations and to meet other needs driven by DOD and
legislative mandates.
Result
Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable
information in the hands of facility and energy managers at
MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites
for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site
selection for future systems, one assessment revealed
apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was
unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment
allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to
construct the portion of the system that had been overdesigned
by the installer.
Costing less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV
system, Critigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide
an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems
will deliver planned return on investment and deliver progress
toward legislative mandates faced by Federal agencies.
Rooftop obstructions and perimeter setbacks were
applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more
accurate solar potential calculations.
One Solar Site Assessment
allowed MARFORRES to avoid
more than $60,000 in costs
for a solar PV system that
had been overdesigned.
Corporate Headquarters
7604 Technology Way, Suite 300
Denver, CO 80237
+1 303.706.0990
critigen.com
© 2012 Critigen, LLC. All Rights Reserved.
All other trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners.
ContactApps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge
BIM 7
DSG AGGREGATION
Growing ASSETs
Building by Building, Campus by Campus, City by City
360° Visual Tour 10x EE
Roof&Ground solar
PV capability inventory

37. ASSET – EXTERIOR BUILDINGS!
SOLAR POWER TOOLS
Geo-Spatial Visual Mapping Solar-capable Surfaces
integrated with long-term financing option apps
Apps rapidly evolving and speciating

38. Interactive 360º Visuals
hand-held APPortunities

39. ASSET – INTERIOR BUILDINGS!
360º interactive View
APPs for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge
ASSETs
EarthVisionZ, location intelligent software, http://earthvisionz.com/ ,

40. ASSET – INTERIOR BUILDINGS AS LEARNING LAB!
Using web COIN to Scale real-world big-gain results
RMI Deep-Dive 10xE Learning Tools & Experience

41. Mapping Cities’ Roof & Road tops for
Solar Reflecting Savings
Each%m2%white%roof%offsets%1%ton%CO2
US$2 Trillion Global Savings
50+ billion tons CO2 reduced
Singapore%EXPO%Conven;on%&%Exhibi;on%Centre Urban%Heat%Island
The long-term effect of increasing the albedo of urban areas, Hashem Akbari, H Damon Matthews and Donny Seto, Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 024004

42. ASSET – CITYSCAPE SCALE!
APP-Aggregating Assemblages of Buildings
Priority-Ranking Biggest Opportunities
Incorporating Financing Algorithms
COINs for learning, skills, training, practice, verification, adaptation, time saving
Arizona State University researchers have developed a new software system capable of estimating GHG emissions across entire urban
landscapes, all the way down to roads and individual buildings. Until now, scientists quantified CO2 emissions at a much broader level. Dubbed
"Hestia" after the Greek goddess of the hearth and home, the system combines extensive public database "data-mining" with traffic simulation
and building-by-building energy-consumption modeling. Its high-resolution maps clearly identify CO2 emission sources in a way that policy-
makers can utilize and the public can understand. Hestia provides a complete, three-dimensional picture of where, when, and how carbon
dioxide emissions are occurring. Credit: Kevin Gurney, Bedrich Benes, Michel Abdul-Massih, Suzanna Remec, Jim Hurst

43. BIG BIM, BIG DATA
BIG CONTINUOUS RESULTS

44. h,ps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04PG53mbmc((
From'3D'to'IPv6'BIM7+'
Con6nuous,'smarter'lifecycle'performance'

46. Neil(Calvert,(“Why(We(Care(About(BIM…,”(DirecNons(Magazine,(Dec.(11,(2013,(h,p://www.direcNonsmag.com/arNcles/whyPwePcarePaboutPbim/368436((
BIM7+
(Cradle-to-Cradle)
Cradle$to$Cradle'Con6nuous'Commissioning''

47. Issa, Suermann and Olbina
(A) Solar radiation Analysis (B) Daylighting analysis
(C) Shading analysis (D) Ventilation and Airflow Analysis
Figure 1: Different kinds of analysis performed by Autodesk Ecotect (Source: <www.autodesk.com/revit>)
Increase'in'project'Value''
with'increase'in'BIM'details'
Solar'Radia6on'Analysis'
Dayligh6ng'Analysis'
Shading'Analysis' Ven6la6on'&'Airflow'Analysis'

48. From Integrated designs to integrated operations
Building
Lighting
HVAC low-side
Plug Loads
Computing
HVAC high-side
Realistic scenario
-variables
Occupancy
Operating hours
Occupant behavior
Weather
Loads
I
N
T
E
G
R
A
T
E
D
D
E
S
I
N
G
S
I
N
T
E
G
R
A
T
E
D
O
P
E
R
A
T
I
O
N
S
Design stage
– most efficient/peak
3
Integrated'Designs'&'Integrated'Opera6ons'
Lifecycle(&(CradlePtoPCradle(
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(
innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014(
Infosys BPO awarded 5-Star Rating b
Efficiency (BEE)
5-star rating signifies being the most energy efficient
Bangalore, India - May 13, 2010: Infosys BPO, the
subsidiary of Infosys Technologies, today announced that i
rating for energy efficiency by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (B
Phase 2 campus in Hinjewadi, Pune, India. The rating is u
buildings” scheme of BEE that rates office buildings in India
rendered on a scale of 1 to 5 stars, where a 5-star rating s
efficient. The rating is valid for a period of 5 years.
36(Mc2'
buildings'

49. Integrated and goal oriented design approach
HVAC(Goal( Ligh3ng(Goal( Water(Goal(
! Max envelope heat gain 1.0 W/sqft
! Total building @ 750-1000 sqft/TR
! 25 deg C, 55% RH
! LPD of 0.45 W/sqft
! 90% of building to be day lit > 110 lux
! No Glare throughout the year
! Architects
! Facade Specialists
! IT Specialists
! HVAC Engineers
! Lighting Specialists
! Architects
! Facade Specialists
! Lighting Specialists
! Electrical Designers
! PHE Engineers
! Architects
! Landscape Architects
! Less than 25 LPD for
office building
! Zero discharge
! 100% self sufficient
T
E
A
M
G
O
A
L(
13
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014(

50. Building Analytics in action
At one client facility running Building Analytics, the preheating
coil and cooling coil were operating simultaneously and wasting
more than $900 and 80,000 kBTUs on a daily basis. The problem
was pinpointed at a leaking chilled water valve that once repaired
produced $60,000 in annual savings with ROI in the first month.
Mixed air
temperature
sensor
Outdoor
air temp
“Occupancy”
is at set point
Return fan
status
Preheating
discharge
temperature
Heating
valve
position
Cooling
valve
position
Supply air
temperature
set point
Supply fan
status
Simultaneous
heating and cooling
Building name:
Equipment name:
Analysis name:
Estimated daily cost savings:
Problem:
Excess or simultaneous heating
and cooling
either providing excess heating or cooling
or operating simultaneously.
Possible causes:
and is leaking.
> Temperature sensor error or sensor
installation error is causing improper
control of the valves.
SMALL'SENSORS'
BIG'DATA'
VISUAL'ANALYTICS'

51. • 20%'reduc6on'in'build'
costs'(buy'4,'get'one'free!)'
• 33%'reduc6on'is'costs'over'
the'life6me'of'the'building'
• 47%'to'65%'reduc6on'in'
conflicts'and're$work'
during'construc6on'
• 44%'to'59%'increase'in'the'
overall'project'quality'
• 35%'to'43%'reduc6on'in'
risk,'beLer'predictability'of'
outcomes'
• 34%'to'40%'beLer'
performing'completed'
infrastructure'
• 32%'to'38%'improvement'
in'review'and'approval'
cycles'
BIM'Lifecycle''
Con6nuous'Commissioning'

52. Benchmarking of Infosys buildings
Design%target% Units% Exis:ng%(US)% BeXer% Best%prac:ce% Infosys%
Delivered(energy(intensity( kBtu/sfYy( 90( 40Y60( <30( <25(
LPD:(Design( W/sf( 1.5( 0.8( 0.4Y0.6( 0.4Y0.6(
LPD:(Opera3onal( W/sf( 1.5( 0.6( 0.1Y0.3( <0.15(
Installed(computers/appliances..( W/sf( 4Y6( 1Y2( <0.5( <0.7(
Glazing(RYvalue((center(of(glass)( sfYF0Yh/Btu( 1Y2( 6Y10( ≥20( >5(
Window(RYvalue((including(frame)( sfYF0Yh/Btu( 1( 3( 7Y8( >5(
Glazing(spectral(selec3vity( Ke(=(Tvis/SF( 1( 1.2( >2.0( >2.0(
Roof(solar(absorptance(and(emilance( α,(ε# 0.8,(0.2( 0.4,(0.4( 0.08,(0.97( 0.18,(0.99(
Installed(mechanical(cooling( sf/ton( 250Y350( 500Y600( 1200Y1400+( 750(Y(1000(
Cooling(designYhour(efficiency( kW/ton( 1.9( 1.2Y1.5( <0.6( <0.59(
US India
11
Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(09P15P2014(

53. Issa, Suermann and Olbina
2D 3D 4D 5D
Risk
Figure 3: Decrease in project risk with the increase in model details
VICO Control is a location based virtual construction system that allows the creation of compressed schedules which al-
low the user to determine progress by comparing actual productivity to the project schedule. Many BIM models are not able
to store information beyond what the building looks like and as such do not allow the user to store info on the construction
process. VICO Control allows integrated construction of the whole project and allows the user to link duration and cost in-
formation directly to the model. Accordingly the user can instantly see the impact of changes in scope and schedule on the
entire project. It links the building model to estimating and scheduling information going from 3D to 5D and allows the user
to add additional parameters to each and every element in the BIM. Thus, the user can attach a recipe describing the means
Decrease'in'project'risk''
with'increase'in'BIM'details'
6D
Cradle'to'Cradle*Facility*Lifespan*Integra6on**
7D
Neil(Calvert,(“Why(We(Care(About(BIM…,”(DirecNons(Magazine,(Dec.(11,(2013,(
h,p://www.direcNonsmag.com/arNcles/whyPwePcarePaboutPbim/368436((
A/E'Firms'
Contractors'
Owners'

54. esources
WIND SIMs

55. Real-world Wind turbine performance metricsComputer model wind farm optimization
3D Simulation Collaboration Rooms Simulation Wind Turbine Erection w/ Crawler Crane
WIND SIMs

56. Climate VR
VR
+ Social Network
+ AI
Solve Big Problems
Faster
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

57. Problem:
Our news feed makes us
more informed, but the
data is random, so our
efforts are
• Reactive
• Unfocused
• Randomized
• Less effective at
solving problems
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

58. April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

59. What can
I do?
Which actions are really effective?
Is there a credible plan
to stop climate change?
I wish I were part of a
larger movement
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

60. One goal.
Many teams.
Clear facts.
Trackable progress.
Enter Climate VR.
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

61. 1. Set the goal
Goal
°F
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

62. 2. Adjust levers (a science-based model
quantifies impact)
Analysis
Goal
°F
Forests
Score 60
Renewables
Score: 60
Electric
Vehicles
Score: 50
Buildings
Score 45
Carbon
Price
Score 60
Paris
Accord
Score 60
Coal
Score 50
Air Quality
Score: 45
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

63. April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

64. 4. Implement tactics (all actions can be done through
social media, turning your network into a tool for
change)
Initiative: Support California 100% Renewable
Portfolio Standard by 2045 SB584
Share SignDonate Email
1
0
1
0
20
0
15
0
1
0
1
0
2
0
2
0
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

65. 5. View your plan (Random no more: Here is
an optimized approach, in synch with global
efforts)
Initiatives score: 700 Cumulative impact score:
1500
Team standing 24 hr delta:
240
US federal Price
on Carbon
CI conserve Amazon
Paris Accord Targets
met
US building energy
code increased
standard
China Coal replaced
by 2030
US States join Paris Accord
Sierra Club End of
Coal
Stop Lamu Coal Plant
in Kenya
India switch to
electric vehicles by
2030
HB 1646 - 2017-18 WA
carbon tax
CI conserve
Indonesia forests
Support US Electric
Vehicle Industry
Require LEED
certification in US
govt buildings
Oregon Renewable Energy
Act of 2007 (Senate Bill
838)
WA joins United
States Climate
Alliance
China RE 5 yr plan
$320 B
Paris Accord Signed
Climate Change Solution score
7000
Climate Change Current Level
950
Your
initiatives
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

66. 6. Track progress (A score updated on a daily
basis provides stickiness)
Initiatives score: 700 Cumulative impact score:
1500
Team standing 24 hr delta:
240
US federal Price
on Carbon
CI conserve Indonesia
Paris Accord Targets
met
US building energy
code increased
standard
China Coal replaced
by 2030
US States join Paris Accord
Sierra Club End of
Coal
Stop Lamu Coal Plant
in Kenya
India switch to
electric vehicles by
2030
HB 1646 - 2017-18 WA
carbon tax
CA 100% Renewable
PS
Support US Electric
Vehicle Industry
Require LEED
certification in US
govt buildings
Oregon Renewable Energy
Act of 2007 (Senate Bill
838)
WA joins United
States Climate
Alliance
China RE 5 yr plan
$320 B
Paris Accord Signed
Climate Change Solution score
7000
Climate Change Last Level 950
Your
initiativ
es
Updated
initiatives
Climate Change Current Level
1020
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

67. April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

68. 8. Use AI to increase effectiveness
AI algorithms match players, tactics and initiatives with scores, and then prioritize the most
effective actions
Goal
°F
Team Initiative
Points
Impact
Points
Tactical
Efficienc
y
Initiative
Efficienc
y
Team
Efficienc
y
Planetee
rs
900 3000 60% 30% 90%
ASU 750 2500 50% 50% 85%
Stanford 700 1000 80% 20% 79%
You 500 800 70% 80% 75%
Wesleya
n
200 780 80% 50% 60%
Score Sheet
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

69. April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

70. 10. Immerse in the wonder of the planet
we can conserve
• Time lapse of climate effects
• Ted talks by climate luminaries
• 360 video of climate front lines
• Peer-2-Peer (P2) creations
April Allderdice and Michael Totten, Climate VR social enterprise

75. Global emissions peak by 2020,
decline to zero by 2040-2050
BAU - Large parts of planet
uninhabitable, recurring
catastrophic disasters

76. Earth Scientist Johan Rockstrom, co-developer of the Planetary Boundaries initiative, has acutely
emphasized the 10,000-year Holocene epoch is the only period in planetary history providing the
climatic stability that has enabled humanity to thrive. Global average temperatures have
remained within ±1° Celsius. By comparison, global temperature swings in the previous 70,000
years ranged at times ±10° Celsius within a decade!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9ETiSaxyfk
Decisions our Generation Make
will Impact the next 10,000 Years

77. THE GREAT ACCELERATION is now driving our world into an Hothouse
Earth. 4°C warming even with Paris Agreement reductions, triggering
Tipping Elements that accelerate additional multi-Gigaton emission
releases.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9ETiSaxyfk
Decisions our Generation Make
will Impact 350 Generations!

78. 84 The Anthropocene Review 2(1)
Figure 1. Trends from 1750 to 2010 in globally aggregated indicators for socio-economic development.
(1) Global population data according to the HYDE (History Database of the Global Environment, 2013)
GREAT
ACCELERATION
The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The
Great Acceleration, Will Steffen, Wendy
Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch, Owen Gaffney
and Cornelia Ludwig, The Anthropocene
Review 2015, Vol. 2(1) 81–98 .
Super-Exponential
Growth Rates

79. Steffen et al. 87
Figure 3. Trends from 1750 to 2010 in indicators for the structure and functioning of the Earth System.
(1) Carbon dioxide from firn and ice core records (Law Dome, Antarctica) and Cape Grim, Australia
GREAT
ACCELERATION
The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The
Great Acceleration, Will Steffen, Wendy
Broadgate, Lisa Deutsch, Owen Gaffney
and Cornelia Ludwig, The Anthropocene
Review 2015, Vol. 2(1) 81–98 .
Super-Exponential
Growth Rates

80. EXCEEDING SAFE PLANETARY BOUNDARIES

81. Oil
Wars
cyber
Wars
Nuclear Reactor Disaster - $700 billion poten9al loss

82. US Geological Survey, Volcanoes, https://volcanoes.usgs.gov/hazards/gas/climate.php
Humans release CO2 emissions every 10 hours equal to the Mount
Pinatubo volcanic eruption, Philippines, 1991
BAU = 90,000 “eruptions” in 21st Century
$3.3 Trillion per year in 2050 global warming costs to
the world due just to U.S. emissions.

83. Externalities – Defined as “Private Gain, Public Pain”
COST to LIVES JUST IN USA:
62,000 U.S. air pollution premature
mortalities per year today.
$600 Billion per year (2013 dollars) in
2050, equal to 3.6 % of 2014 U.S. Gross
Domestic Product GDP.
Lung of LA Teenage NONsmoker in
1970s; Most Big Cities of the
World Today

84. The Problem from Hell!
Seizing a Burning
Opportunity?
POINTS MADE:
1. 93% Probability of 4°C temperature rise BAU w/in 80 years (Caldeira)
2. Trigger 10 Tipping Points accelerating higher global temperature (Rockstrom)
3. WRONG to depend on Cost-Benefit Analysis (Weitzman)
4. CORRECT to rely on Climate Catastrophic Insurance
5. Current global Climate investment six-fold lower than insurance minimum (Weitzman)
6. Current global Climate investment 10-fold lower than Sizzling Opportunity (Drawdown)
7. Climate Defense Insurance and Homeland Securities & Bonds? (Totten)
8. Giving Pledgers (Gates/Buffett initiative) Net Worth $800 billion – Source?

85. “Our study indicates that if
emissions follow a commonly-
used business-as-usual
scenario, there is a 93% chance
that global warming will
exceed 4°C by the end of this
century. Previous studies have
put this likelihood at 62%.”
Ken Caldeira
Department of Global Ecology,
Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford,
Nature, Dec. 7, 2017

86. Tipping Elements: Catastrophic additions
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V9ETiSaxyfk

88. Tipping Elements: Climate-triggered Risk
Thomas S. Lontzek, Yongyang Cai, Kenneth L. Judd and Timothy M. Lenton (2015) Stochastic integrated assessment of climate tipping points indicates the
need for strict climate policy, Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, May 2015, www.nature.com/natureclimatechange

89. Weitzman, Martin L. (2012) GHG targets as insurance against catastrophic climate damages. Journal of Public Economic Theory 14(2): 221-244.
http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:11315435.
Weitzman, Martin L. (2011) Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, vol.
5, issue 2, summer 2011, pp. 275–292 doi:10.1093/reep/rer006
Symposium:
Fat Tails and the Economics of Climate Change
Fat-Tailed Uncertainty in the
Economics of Catastrophic Climate
Change
Martin L. Weitzman*
Introduction
I believe that the most striking feature of the economics of climate change is that its extreme
downside is nonnegligible. Deep structural uncertainty about the unknown unknowns of
what might go very wrong is coupled with essentially unlimited downside liability on possible
planetary damages. This is a recipe for producing what are called ‘‘fat tails’’ in the extremes of
critical probability distributions. There is a race being run in the extreme tail between how
rapidly probabilities are declining and how rapidly damages are increasing. Who wins this
race, and by how much, depends on how fat (with probability mass) the extreme tails are. It is
difficult to judge how fat the tail of catastrophic climate change might be because it represents
events that are very far outside the realm of ordinary experience.
In this article, which is part of a symposium on Fat Tails and the Economics of Climate
Change, I address some criticisms that have been leveled at previous work of mine on fat
tails and the so-called ‘‘dismal theorem.’’1
At first, I was inclined to debate some of the critics
and their criticisms more directly. But, on second thought, I found myself anxious not to be
drawn into being too defensive and having the main focus be on technical details. Instead, I
am more keen here to emphasize anew and in fresh language the substantive concepts that, I
think, may be more obscured than enlightened by a debate centered on technicalities. I am
far more committed to the simple basic ideas that underlie my approach to fat-tailed un-
certainty and the economics of catastrophic climate change than I am to the particular
*Department of Economics, Harvard University; e-mail: mweitzman@harvard.edu
Without blaming them for the remaining deficiencies in this article, I am extremely grateful for the con-
structive comments on an earlier version by James Annan, Daniel Cole, Stephen DeCanio, Baruch Fischoff,
Don Fullerton, John Harte, William Hogan, Matthew Kahn, David Kelly, Michael Oppenheimer, Robert
Pindyck, Joseph Romm, and Richard Tol.
1
This symposium also includes articles by Nordhaus (2011) and Pindyck (2011). The ‘‘dismal theorem,’’
introduced in Weitzman (2009a), will be discussed later in this article.
Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, volume 5, issue 2, summer 2011, pp. 275–292
doi:10.1093/reep/rer006
Ó The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Environmental and Resource
Economists. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com
275
atHarvardUniversityonOctober14,2011reep.oxfordjournals.orgDownloadedfrom
Harvard Economics Professor
Martin Weitzman at COP23 The Problem from Hell
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the
potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significant
costs involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic
missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction...A crude natural metric
for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental-
insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends
approximately 3% of national income on the cost of a clean
environment.”
Cost-Benefit Analyses – WRONG!!!
Catastrophe Insurance – CORRECT!!

90. Close scrutiny of Paris
Agreement finds the
scenarios consistent with
2∘C rely on BECCS to
deliver roughly 10 GtCO2
annually by 2100 (i.e.,
about 20% of 2017 CO2
emissions).
Given the oceans currently
remove about 10 GtCO2
the expectation is that
BECCS can establish an
additional carbon sink on
the order of magnitude of
the world’s oceans!
There are severe ecological limits
to BECCS expansion, in addition to
real serious trade-offs with other
competing needs (food, fiber,
feed).
Growing high-yield perennial
crops like Switchgrass to annually
remove JUST one GtCO2 would
consume up to 1 billion hectares
of farmland.
This is 25 times greater than U.S.
area currently under corn
production – AND 25% of THE
WORLD’S TOTAL ARABLE LAND
AREA.
NET? Negative Emission Technologies
JUST one GtCO2
would require 20
millions tons of
nitrogen, equal to
1/5th of total global
fertilizer nitrogen
production.
Consume 4 Trillion m3
of water per year,
equal to roughly total
annual global water
extraction for all uses!
Smith, L. J. and M.S.Torn (2013) Ecological limits to terrestrial biological CO2 removal, Climatic Change 118(1):89-103.

91. A 3% climate catastrophic insurance annual premium suggests
a global funding level of $2.5 trillion/yr given a world GDP of
$75 trillion, and $0.55 trillion/yr in USA.

92. • Coal production is dominated by China, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, and North Korea and other national coal
producers (for which we are developing company historic production data); their coal production resulted
in emissions totaling 264 GtCO2e;
• Twenty-nine investor-owned and state-owned coal producers lead to the emission of 94 GtCO2, or one-
eighth of all fossil fuel emissions since 1988;
• Half of all industrial emissions of carbon dioxide since the dawn of the fossil fuel era have been emitted
since 1988.
Operational and product GHG emissions of 100 active fossil fuel producing entities, 1988-2015
CDP
clusions:
• Coal production is dominated by China, Russia, Poland, Ukraine, and No
producers (for which we are developing company historic production d
in emissions totaling 264 GtCO2e;
• Twenty-nine investor-owned and state-owned coal producers lead to th
eighth of all fossil fuel emissions since 1988;
• Half of all industrial emissions of carbon dioxide since the dawn of the f
since 1988.
Carbon Majors: 100 producers the source of 71% of emissions 1988-2015
Global Carbon Tax of $28 per ton CO2e on 100 largest
emitters would raise Drawdown’s estimated $27 trillion
net additional investment needs

93. $

95. Making Smarter & Integrated Sectors
Grids+Vehicles+Buildings+Industries
The Next Industrial Revolution

97. 40-Year Jobs Created
Number of jobs where a person
is employed for 40 consecutive years
Operation jobs:
Construction jobs:
=10,000
21,119
49,417
Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and
improving energy efficiency means you need much less energy.
-40%
Current demand Wind, Water, Solar
VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG
TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT
Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit
http://go100.me/50StateTargets
FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj
http://thesolutionsproject.org/
Maximizing Electrification of all Energy Services

98. Electric Cars + Batteries
Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
Stanford Professor Mark Jacobson’s
Zero emission 100% Solar+ Storage home & EVs

99. Rooftop Solar Plus Battery Storage
Photo by M.Z. Jacobson
Stanford Professor Mark Jacobson’s home

100. 100% IN 139 COUNTRIES
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
Residential
rooftop solar
14.89%
Solar plant
21.36%
Concentrated
solar plant
9.72%
Onshore wind
23.52%
Offshore wind
13.62%
Commercial/govt
rooftop solar
11.58%
Wave energy
0.58%
Geothermal energy
0.67%
Hydroelectric
4%
Tidal turbine
0.06%
2050
PROJECTED
ENERGY MIX
Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and
JOBS CREATED 52 MILLION
JOBS LOST 27.7 MILLION

101. ndent change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and indu
els and WWS generators based on the state roadmaps proposed here. Total power demand decreases upon convers
ectricity over combustion and end-use energy efficiency measures. The percentages on the horizontal date ax
S that has occurred by that year. The percentages next to each WWS source are the final estimated penetration o
in 2050 indicates that 100% of all-purpose power is provided by WWS technologies by 2050, and the power deman
rkart, personal communication.
mental Science
1
TW
Eff
.8 TW
.7 TW
Jacobson,Mark Z., Mark A. Delucchi, Guillaume Bazouin, Zack A. F. Bauer, Christa C. Heavey, Emma Fisher, Sean B. Morris, Diniana J. Y. Piekutowski, Taylor
A. Vencill and Tim W. Yeskoo (2015) 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States,
Energy and Environmetal Science, 8:2093—2117, Royal Society of Chemistry, https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/USStatesWWS.pdf
100 % Efficiency, Solar & Wind Electrification
of USA

102. 100% COLORADO
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
Residential rooftop PV
4.2%
Solar PV plants
17.6%
CSP plants
15%
Onshore wind
55%
Offshore wind
0%
Commercial/govt
rooftop PV
4%
Wave devices
0%
Geothermal
3%
Hydroelectric
1.2%
Tidal turbines
0%
2050
PROJECTED
ENERGY MIX
40-Year Jobs Created
Number of jobs where a person
is employed for 40 consecutive years
Operation jobs:
Construction jobs:
=10,000
21,119
49,417
Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and

103. 100% COLORADO
P
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
Avoided Mortality and Illness Costs Percentage of Colorado Land Needed for
All New WWS Generators
Future Energy Costs 2050 Money in Your Pocket
Avoided health costs per year:
1% of State GDP
Air pollution deaths avoided every year: 699
$7.4B
=100
Plan pays for itself in as little as 2 years from air pollution and climate
cost savings alone
1.4%Spacing area
0.21%Footprint area
BAU (Business as usual) WWS (Wind, water, solar)
Annual energy, health, and climate cost savings per person
in 2050: $9,303
= $2,000
http://thesolutionsproject.org/

104. VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG
TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT
Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit
http://go100.me/50StateTargets
P
Future Energy Costs 2050 Money in Your Pocket
Air pollution deaths avoided every year: 699
=100
Plan pays for itself in as little as 2 years from air pollution and climate
cost savings alone
BAU (Business as usual) WWS (Wind, water, solar)
U.S. average fossil-fuel energy costs*
9.9 c/kWh
StateaverageWWS
electricitycosts
8.5 c/kWh
*Health and climate external costs of fossil fuels are another 5.7c/kWh
Annual energy, health, and climate cost savings per person
in 2050: $9,303
Annual energy cost savings per person in 2050: $312
= $2,000
100% COLORADO
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
Residential rooftop PV
4.2%
Solar PV plants
17.6%
CSP plants
15%
Onshore wind
55%
Offshore wind
0%
Commercial/govt
rooftop PV
4%
Wave devices
0%
Geothermal
3%
Hydroelectric
1.2%
Tidal turbines
0%
2050
PROJECTED
ENERGY MIX
40-Year Jobs Created
Number of jobs where a person
is employed for 40 consecutive years
Operation jobs:
Construction jobs:
=10,000
21,119
49,417
Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and
improving energy efficiency means you need much less energy.
-40%
Current demand Wind, Water, Solar
http://thesolutionsproject.org/

105. 24
Table Captions and Tables
e 1. BAU and WWS end-use energy use by sector and town or city. First line of each town or city:
mated 2050 total annually-averaged end-use load (GW) and percent of the total load by sector if
entional fossil fuel, nuclear, and biofuel use continue from today to 2050 under a BAU trajectory. Second
of each town or city: estimated 2050 total end-use load (GW) and percent of total load by sector if 100%
AU end-use all-purpose delivered load in 2050 is instead provided by WWS. The last four columns show
ercent reductions in total 2050 BAU load due to switching from BAU to WWS, including the effects of
nergy use reduction due to the higher work-to-energy ratio of electricity over combustion, (b) eliminating
gy use for the upstream mining, transporting, and/or refining of coal, oil, gas, biofuels, bioenergy, and
um, and (c) policy-driven increases in end-use efficiency and demand reduction beyond those in the BAU
Scen-
ario
2050
Total
end-use
load
(GW)
Resid-
ential
percent
of total
end-use
load
Com-
mercial
per-cent
of total
end-use
load
Indus-
trial per-
cent of
total
end-use
load
Trans-
port
per-cent
of total
end-use
load
(a)
Percent
change in
end-use load
w/WWS due
to higher
work:
energy ratio
(b)
Percent
change in
end-use load
w/WWS due
to eliminating
energy in
mining,
transporting,
refining
(c)
Percent
change
in end-
use load
w/WWS
due to
efficienc
y beyond
BAU
Overall
percent
change
in end-
use load
with
WWS
BAU 1.610 17.9 19.6 23.9 38.7
WWS 0.847 25.3 32.3 20.7 21.6 -31.1 -11.2 -5.1 -47.4
BAU 1.232 22.1 28.8 12.5 36.6
WWS 0.651 29.1 44.2 9.3 17.4 -22.6 -9.4 -15.1 -47.2
BAU 6.763 8.3 5.7 66.1 19.9
WWS 3.705 10.7 10.2 70.2 8.8 -26.0 -17.9 -1.4 -45.2
BAU 20.890 18.0 14.6 35.2 32.1
WWS 9.513 25.4 28.1 28.2 18.3 -24.4 -18.0 -12.1 -54.5
BAU 3.021 17.5 14.4 37.5 30.7
WWS 1.450 24.5 26.0 32.8 16.7 -24.7 -16.3 -11.0 -52.0
BAU 2.151 7.7 6.4 59.9 26.1
WWS 0.710 17.7 16.7 45.5 20.1 -17.4 -34.0 -15.6 -67.0
BAU 5.437 19.1 13.0 32.2 35.7
WWS 2.955 28.2 22.7 31.5 17.6 -28.4 -13.2 -4.0 -45.6
BAU 3.953 22.7 24.1 10.9 42.2
WWS 2.107 29.5 39.2 8.4 22.9 -29.7 -6.9 -10.1 -46.7
BAU 37.462 7.7 6.4 59.9 26.1
WWS 12.370 17.7 16.7 45.5 20.1 -17.4 -34.0 -15.6 -67.0
BAU 22.093 10.7 15.4 28.8 45.1
WWS 11.239 19.6 27.5 25.2 27.7 -36.8 -11.9 -0.4 -49.1
BAU 16.830 10.2 10.2 42.6 37.0
WWS 7.325 17.6 18.9 41.9 21.5 -25.6 -11.9 -19.0 -56.5
BAU 2.236 17.6 18.5 16.2 47.6
DENVER 2050 Prosperous Opportunity
100 percent Water, Wind & Solar Energy System
op areas suitable for PV panels, potential nameplate capacities of suitable rooftop areas, and
plate capacities for both residential and commercial/government buildings by town or city.
Residential rooftop PV Commercial/government rooftop PV
Rooftop
area
suitable
for PV in
2012
(km2
)
Potential
nameplate
capacity of
suitable
area in
2050
(MWdc-peak)
Proposed
nameplate
capacity
in 2050
(MWdc-
peak)
Percent
of
potential
capacity
to be
installed
Rooftop
area
suitable
for PV
in 2012
(km2
)
Potential
nameplate
capacity of
suitable area
in 2050
(MWdc-peak)
Proposed
nameplate
capacity in
2050
(MWdc-peak)
Percent
of
potential
capacity
to be
installed
2.39 472 277 59 1.78 358 224 63
5.27 642 95 15 4.30 540 81 15
18.88 3,055 1,125 37 13.29 2,194 1,009 46
14.62 2,165 1,875 87 13.91 2,108 1,711 81
5.19 752 631 84 4.48 665 548 82
1.28 373 316 85 1.04 303 248 82
7.16 1,641 1,295 79 5.95 1,384 1,086 78
6.81 1,301 744 57 5.52 1,073 593 55
24
transporting,
refining
y beyond
BAU
BAU 1.610 17.9 19.6 23.9 38.7
WWS 0.847 25.3 32.3 20.7 21.6 -31.1 -11.2 -5.1 -47.4
BAU 1.232 22.1 28.8 12.5 36.6
WWS 0.651 29.1 44.2 9.3 17.4 -22.6 -9.4 -15.1 -47.2
BAU 6.763 8.3 5.7 66.1 19.9
WWS 3.705 10.7 10.2 70.2 8.8 -26.0 -17.9 -1.4 -45.2
BAU 20.890 18.0 14.6 35.2 32.1
WWS 9.513 25.4 28.1 28.2 18.3 -24.4 -18.0 -12.1 -54.5
BAU 3.021 17.5 14.4 37.5 30.7
WWS 1.450 24.5 26.0 32.8 16.7 -24.7 -16.3 -11.0 -52.0
BAU 2.151 7.7 6.4 59.9 26.1
WWS 0.710 17.7 16.7 45.5 20.1 -17.4 -34.0 -15.6 -67.0
BAU 5.437 19.1 13.0 32.2 35.7
WWS 2.955 28.2 22.7 31.5 17.6 -28.4 -13.2 -4.0 -45.6
BAU 3.953 22.7 24.1 10.9 42.2
WWS 2.107 29.5 39.2 8.4 22.9 -29.7 -6.9 -10.1 -46.7
BAU 37.462 7.7 6.4 59.9 26.1
WWS 12.370 17.7 16.7 45.5 20.1 -17.4 -34.0 -15.6 -67.0
BAU 22.093 10.7 15.4 28.8 45.1
WWS 11.239 19.6 27.5 25.2 27.7 -36.8 -11.9 -0.4 -49.1
BAU 16.830 10.2 10.2 42.6 37.0
WWS 7.325 17.6 18.9 41.9 21.5 -25.6 -11.9 -19.0 -56.5
BAU 2.236 17.6 18.5 16.2 47.6
op areas suitable for PV panels, potential nameplate capacities of suitable rooftop areas, and
plate capacities for both residential and commercial/government buildings by town or city.
Residential rooftop PV Commercial/government rooftop PV
Rooftop
area
suitable
for PV in
2012
(km2
)
Potential
nameplate
capacity of
suitable
area in
2050
(MWdc-peak)
Proposed
nameplate
capacity
in 2050
(MWdc-
peak)
Percent
of
potential
capacity
to be
installed
Rooftop
area
suitable
for PV
in 2012
(km2
)
Potential
nameplate
capacity of
suitable area
in 2050
(MWdc-peak)
Proposed
nameplate
capacity in
2050
(MWdc-peak)
Percent
of
potential
capacity
to be
installed
2.39 472 277 59 1.78 358 224 63
5.27 642 95 15 4.30 540 81 15
18.88 3,055 1,125 37 13.29 2,194 1,009 46
14.62 2,165 1,875 87 13.91 2,108 1,711 81
5.19 752 631 84 4.48 665 548 82
1.28 373 316 85 1.04 303 248 82
7.16 1,641 1,295 79 5.95 1,384 1,086 78
6.81 1,301 744 57 5.52 1,073 593 55
50.82 14,781 5,831 39 41.00 12,014 4,575 38
38.66 9,564 7,576 79 25.38 6,364 4,853 76
68.63 19,960 8,736 44 55.36 16,223 7,834 48
6.94 2,603 1,442 55 4.49 1,688 1,012 60
6.26 979 726 74 5.08 811 521 64
40.78 4,970 2,577 52 33.31 4,180 2,133 51
Jacobson, Mark Z., Mary A. Cameron, Eleanor M. Hennessy, Ivalin Petkov, Clayton B. Meyer, Tanvi K. Gambhir, Amanda T. Maki, Katherine Pfleeger, Hailey Clonts, Avery L. McEvoy,
Matthew L. Miccioli, Anna-Katharina von Krauland, Rebecca W. Fang, Mark A. Delucchi (2018) 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) All- Sector Energy
Roadmaps for 53 Towns and Cities in North America, January 13, 2018, Stanford University, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, and UC Berkeley,
Institute of Transportation Studies.

106. DENVER 2050 Prosperous Opportunity
100 percent Water, Wind & Solar Energy System
alues of the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for the BAU retail electricity sector in 2015 and
WS in all energy sectors (which are electrified) in 2050. The 2015 and 2050 values are used to
cost savings per person per year in each town or city due to switching from BAU to WWS in
ity sector only (see footnotes).
(a)
2015
LCOE of
BAU
elec-
tricity
(¢/kWh-
elec-
tricity)
(b)
2050
LCOE of
BAU
elec-
tricity
(¢/kWh-
elec-
tricity)
(c)
2050
LCOE of
WWS
(¢/kWh-
all-
energy)
(d)
Average
cost
savings in
BAU retail
electricity
sector in
town or
city due to
switching
to WWS
electricity
($/per-
son/yr)
(e)
2050
Average air
pollution
damage cost
savings to
town or city
due to
switching all
sectors in
city to WWS
($/person/yr)
(f)
2050
Average
climate cost
savings to
world due to
switching all
sectors in
town or city
to WWS
($/person/yr)
(g)
2050
Average
electricity +
town or city
health +
world climate
cost savings
due to
switching to
WWS
($/person/yr)
10.4 10.3 10.9 82 1,276 5,917 7,274
13.0 12.2 10.6 153 1,188 4,875 6,215
8.5 9.8 9.1 129 1,833 6,454 8,416
9.5 9.7 11.5 83 1,820 9,631 11,534
10.0 10.4 8.4 557 1,864 11,270 13,691
9.9 11.2 10.4 364 1,288 9,969 11,621
9.2 12.9 7.9 526 1,050 8,005 9,581
11.0 10.8 11.6 70 1,754 5,103 6,927
9.9 11.2 10.4 364 1,288 9,969 11,621
11.4 12.1 9.9 143 2,545 5,055 7,743
9.9 11.2 10.7 100 639 2,895 3,634
Jacobson, Mark Z., Mary A. Cameron, Eleanor M. Hennessy, Ivalin Petkov, Clayton B. Meyer, Tanvi K. Gambhir, Amanda T. Maki, Katherine Pfleeger, Hailey Clonts, Avery L. McEvoy,
Matthew L. Miccioli, Anna-Katharina von Krauland, Rebecca W. Fang, Mark A. Delucchi (2018) 100% Clean and Renewable Wind, Water, and Sunlight (WWS) All- Sector Energy
Roadmaps for 53 Towns and Cities in North America, January 13, 2018, Stanford University, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil and Env. Engineering, and UC Berkeley,
Institute of Transportation Studies.
ty sector only (see footnotes).
(a)
2015
LCOE of
BAU
elec-
tricity
(¢/kWh-
elec-
tricity)
(b)
2050
LCOE of
BAU
elec-
tricity
(¢/kWh-
elec-
tricity)
(c)
2050
LCOE of
WWS
(¢/kWh-
all-
energy)
(d)
Average
cost
savings in
BAU retail
electricity
sector in
town or
city due to
switching
to WWS
electricity
($/per-
son/yr)
(e)
2050
Average air
pollution
damage cost
savings to
town or city
due to
switching all
sectors in
city to WWS
($/person/yr)
(f)
2050
Average
climate cost
savings to
world due to
switching all
sectors in
town or city
to WWS
($/person/yr)
(g)
2050
Average
electricity +
town or city
health +
world climate
cost savings
due to
switching to
WWS
($/person/yr)
10.4 10.3 10.9 82 1,276 5,917 7,274
13.0 12.2 10.6 153 1,188 4,875 6,215
8.5 9.8 9.1 129 1,833 6,454 8,416
9.5 9.7 11.5 83 1,820 9,631 11,534
10.0 10.4 8.4 557 1,864 11,270 13,691
9.9 11.2 10.4 364 1,288 9,969 11,621
9.2 12.9 7.9 526 1,050 8,005 9,581
11.0 10.8 11.6 70 1,754 5,103 6,927
9.9 11.2 10.4 364 1,288 9,969 11,621
11.4 12.1 9.9 143 2,545 5,055 7,743
9.9 11.2 10.7 100 639 2,895 3,634
11.8 11.2 9.1 223 1,118 3,925 5,266
9.7 11.5 10.0 466 1,217 9,748 11,431
13.0 12.2 10.8 202 557 1,704 2,463
13.0 12.2 10.6 222 1,188 4,875 6,284
11.4 12.1 9.9 143 2,545 5,055 7,743
13.0 12.2 10.4 79 522 1,597 2,198
the annually averaged 2050 town- or city-specific all-purpose end-use WWS load (not
) in Table 1 to be met with the given electric power generator. All rows add up to 100%.
On-
shore
wind
Offshore
wind
Wave Geo-
thermal
Hydro-
electric
Tidal Res
PV
Com/
gov PV
Utility
PV
CSP
10.00 50.00 0.50 0.00 1.29 0.05 5.00 4.50 23.66 5.00
10.00 36.00 0.80 0.00 6.54 0.10 2.00 1.90 42.66 0.00
35.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 19.15 0.00 4.00 4.00 18.85 10.00
60.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 2.85 2.90 26.22 3.00
45.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 6.20 6.00 29.70 3.00
50.00 13.90 0.10 0.50 0.16 0.00 8.00 7.00 6.34 14.00
the annually averaged 2050 town- or city-specific all-purpose end-use WWS load (not
) in Table 1 to be met with the given electric power generator. All rows add up to 100%.
On-
shore
wind
Offshore
wind
Wave Geo-
thermal
Hydro-
electric
Tidal Res
PV
Com/
gov PV
Utility
PV
CSP
10.00 50.00 0.50 0.00 1.29 0.05 5.00 4.50 23.66 5.00
10.00 36.00 0.80 0.00 6.54 0.10 2.00 1.90 42.66 0.00
35.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 19.15 0.00 4.00 4.00 18.85 10.00
60.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.03 0.00 2.85 2.90 26.22 3.00
45.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 6.20 6.00 29.70 3.00
50.00 13.90 0.10 0.50 0.16 0.00 8.00 7.00 6.34 14.00
45.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 1.24 0.00 7.70 7.20 20.86 15.00
5.00 60.00 1.00 0.00 1.53 0.03 5.40 4.80 22.24 0.00
50.00 13.90 0.10 0.50 0.16 0.00 8.00 7.00 6.34 14.00
17.00 8.00 0.50 5.00 4.48 0.50 14.00 10.00 25.52 15.00
19.16 15.97 0.71 2.20 2.94 0.01 25.00 25.00 4.22 4.79
5.00 8.00 1.00 0.00 0.05 0.04 23.00 18.00 34.91 10.00

107. Amory Lovins’ Zero Emission, Solar powered,
Energy positive home and EV, Snowmass, CO

109. RMI-LBNL-ERI Reinventing Fire China Roadmap

110. for recently closed plants, approximately 50% of the existing thermal fleet
may retire by 2030.
• Coal: The average retirement age of closed plants to date is 54 years,
but that age may decline given recent trends, in particular recent
pressure from low natural gas prices.
• Nuclear: Average retirement age for the US nuclear fleet is 45 years,
according to S&P Global projections. As with coal plants, low gas prices have
accelerated retirement pressure on nuclear plants in restructured markets.
THE ECONOMICS OF CLEAN ENERGY PORTFOL
OUN
TAIN
TUTE
The most recent “rush to gas” in the 1990s and 2000s resulted in
significant, relatively new gas capacity that can be expected to remain in
operation through 2030 and beyond, but there are many older plants tha
are still operating that are costly to run and are likely to retire soon.
FIGURE 2
EXISTING US THERMAL GENERATION CAPACITY RETIREMENT OUTLOOK
1,000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
GW
Operating in 2016 Nuclear Coal
Expected retirements through 2030
Gas Operating in 2030
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
EXISTING US THERMAL GENERATION CAPACITY RETIREMENT OUTLOOK
Coal
Natural gas
Nuclear
Nuclear
Natgas
Coal
Nuclear
Coal
Natgas
Expected retirement through 2030
Coal
Natgas
Operating
in 2016
Operating
in 2030
Dyson, Mark, Jamil Farbes, and Alexander Engel (2008) The Economics of Clean Energy Portfolios: How Renewable and Distributed Energy Resources
Are Outcompeting and can Strand Investment in Natural Gas-Fired Generation. Rocky Mountain Institute, 2018.
https://www.rmi.org/insights/reports/economics-clean-energy-portfolios/
How U.S. Renewable & Distributed Energy Resources Are
Outcompeting and can Strand $1 Trillion Investment in
Natural Gas-Fired Generation
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
THE ECONOMICS OF CLEAN ENERGY PORTFOLIOS | 6
ROC
KY MOUN
TAIN
INSTITUTE
The current rush to gas in the US electricity system could
lock in $1 trillion of cost through 2030
The US power grid is the largest, most complicated, most expensive, and
likely the oldest continually operating machine in the world, but it is not aging
gracefully. The grid has fueled the US economy for over a century, but
requires significant reinvestment to maintain the same level of cost-effective,
reliable service for the next century. In particular, the fleet of thermal power
plants that convert fuel to electricity is aging, with over half of thermal capacity
more than 30 years old and expected to reach retirement age by 2030.
Recent advances in power plant technology and the currently low price of
natural gas mean that new natural gas-fired turbines are more efficient and
less costly to run than aging power plants. This has led to a “rush to gas,”
with utilities and independent power plant developers having announced
plans to invest over $110 billion in new gas-fired power plants through
2025. Extrapolating this trend to 2030 suggests that over $500 billion will
be required to replace all retiring power plants with new natural gas-fired
capacity. This will lock in another $480 billion in fuel costs and 5 billion tons
of CO2
emissions through 2030, and up to 16 billion tons through 2050.
50%of US thermal power plant capacity is
likely to retire by 2030
$520 BILLIONis required for natural gas-fired power
plants to replace retiring capacity
$480 BILLIONis required for fuel to run those power
plants through 2030

111. THE ECONOMICS OF CLEAN ENERGY PORTFOLIOS
MOUN
TAIN
TITUTE
The emerging cost-effectiveness of clean energy portfolios versus new gas
suggests a significant opportunity to offset a majority of planned spending
on new gas plants, and instead prioritize investments in renewables and
DERs, at a net cost savings on a present value basis. This investment
trajectory would unlock a market for renewables and DERs many times
larger than today’s, minimize risk to investors, enable net cost savings
FIGURE ES-3
MARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEAN ENERGY PORTFOLIOS IN THE US, 2018–2030
$800
$700
$600
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
$billions(NPV)
Business-as-usual Gas plant CapEx Gas plant OpEx Renewables Distributed Energy
Resources
Total
Reduce gas generator costs Redirect capital
Reduce gas CapEx & OpEx
by $370 B
Invest $350 B in new
renewables and DERs
for American electricity customers, and reduce carbon emissions by 3.5
billion tons through 2030. This estimate excludes any value of DERs to the
distribution system beyond peak load reduction, any value of avoided fuel
price risk, and any cost on carbon emissions; including these factors could
increase the addressable market and savings potential significantly.
Total ~2-5%
cost savings
MARKET OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEAN ENERGY PORTFOLIOS
IN THE US, 2018–2030
Business-
as-Usual Reduce gas generator costs Redirect capital
Total
2030
Gas plant CapEx Gas plant OpEx Eff, Solar & Wind Distributed energy
resources
Dyson, Mark, Jamil Farbes, and Alexander Engel (2008) The Economics of Clean Energy Portfolios: How Renewable and
Distributed Energy Resources Are Outcompeting and can Strand Investment in Natural Gas-Fired Generation. Rocky Mountain
Institute, 2018. https://www.rmi.org/insights/reports/economics-clean-energy-portfolios/

112. Accelerating EV growth and declining battery cost
Global EV sales are growing ~60% per year, while U.S. EV sales flatten, with battery price approaching or below $200/
EV sales, 2011–2016
0
160,000
320,000
480,000
640,000
800,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
North America Europe China Japan
Battery pack price, 2011–2016 (nominal $)
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Sources: BNEF, EV-Volumes; Bolt: http://insideevs.com/gm-chevrolet-bolt-
for-2016-145kwh-cell-cost-volt-margin-improves-3500/
Chevrolet 2017 Bolt
$145/kWh
ility while saving money, oil, air, and climate. Global electric-vehicle (EV) sales grew
world sold in 2014, and launched 10x growth during 2015–20. Bloomberg expects E
ew frontier projects come onstream—then save 13 Mb/d by 2040 (9x ExxonMobil’s top
Disruptive energy futures, Amory B. Lovins, Cofounder and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute, Keynote,
Wirth Chair Luncheon, U of Colorado Denver, 06 Oct 2017, http://www.rmi.org
Global EV sales grew 60% in 2015 and 42% in 2016— when China sold more EVs than the
world sold in 2014, and launched 10x growth during 2015–20.

113. $100/ton
CO2
Disruptive energy futures, Amory B. Lovins, Cofounder and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute, Keynote,
Wirth Chair Luncheon, U of Colorado Denver, 06 Oct 2017, http://www.rmi.org

114. Modern solar & wind scale up in a fundamentally different way. Traditionally, giant cathedral-like
power plants, each costing billions of dollars and taking many years to license and build.
But now each year, with roughly comparable capital, a factory is built that produces each year
thereafter enough solar cells to generate each year thereafter as much electricity as the “cathedral”
ultimately will. So solar output worldwide is scaling faster than cellphones. In 2013, China added
more PV capacity than the US had done cumulatively in the previous 59 years. In 2016, China added
twice that much—three soccer fields per hour—including 11 GW in June alone.
Disruptive energy futures, Amory B. Lovins, Cofounder and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute, Keynote,
Wirth Chair Luncheon, U of Colorado Denver, 06 Oct 2017, http://www.rmi.org

115. Modern solar & wind scale up in a fundamentally different way. Traditionally, giant cathedral-like
power plants, each costing billions of dollars and taking many years to license and build.
But now each year, with roughly comparable capital, a factory is built that produces each year
thereafter enough solar cells to generate each year thereafter as much electricity as the “cathedral”
ultimately will. So solar output worldwide is scaling faster than cellphones. In 2013, China added
more PV capacity than the US had done cumulatively in the previous 59 years. In 2016, China added
twice that much—three soccer fields per hour—including 11 GW in June alone.
Disruptive energy futures, Amory B. Lovins, Cofounder and Chief Scientist, Rocky Mountain Institute, Keynote,
Wirth Chair Luncheon, U of Colorado Denver, 06 Oct 2017, http://www.rmi.org

116. Tony Seba, http://tonyseba.com

117. Tony Seba & James Arbib, RethinkX, Disruptions, Implications, Choices -- Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, The Disruption of Transportation and the
Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries , May 2017, http://www.rethinkx.com/
CONVERGENCE
Set of technologies
converges & creates
opportunities for
entrepreneurs to create
disruptive products &
services.

118. ony Seba
Projected cost of Li-On Battery $/kWh
Assumption: 16% /year Technology Cost Curve

119. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
1. Electric Motor - 5X more Energy Efficient
Sources:ICE - DOE, EM Wikipedia, Image Sources: ICE - Tony Seba, Electric - BradMerritt.com
Internal
Combustion
Engine
Electric
Motor

120. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
2. EVs are 10X cheaper to charge/fuel
▸ It costs $15,000 to fill up a (gas) Jeep
Liberty over five years (Consumer Reports)
▸ An Electric Jeep Liberty would cost $1,565
in electricity
▸ Improvements in power electronics will
increase 10X
Assumptions:
12,000 miles/year
Tesla Roadster: 4.6 miles per kWh.
Ave retail electricity in the U.S.: 12 ¢/kWh
5 year-cost = (60,000 miles * 0.12 $/kWh) / 4.6 miles/kWh = $1,565.
Image Source: jeep.com
Sources: Consumer Reports, DOE, Clean Disruption

121. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
3. Maintenance - Gasoline Car:
2,000+ moving parts (1)
Image Source: © Todd McLellan Source: (1) Baron Funds

122. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
3. EVs: 100X fewer Moving Parts
ICE (Gas) Vehicle
2,000+ moving parts (1)
Electric Vehicle (EV)
18 moving parts (1)
▸ EVs 10X-100X cheaper to maintain!
▸ Tesla: Infinite Mile Warranty! (2)
Source: (1) Baron Funds, (2) Tesla Blog
Transmission,
driveshaft, clutch,
valves, differentials,
pistons, gears,
carburetors,
crankshafts...

123. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
EVs Shift the Price/Performance equation:
Disrupt the BASIS of COMPETITION
EVs: Porsche performance for Buick prices!
Car Image Sources: WikiMedia
Price
Performance
Low $
High $$$
Low High
Porsche 911
Carrera
Buick Enclave Tesla Model 3
Copyright © 2009-2016 by Tony Seba
Medium $$

124. Copyright © 2016 Tony Seba
CostofElectricVehicle
Disruption from Above:
Cost of EV with 200-mile (320 Km) range
ICE “Affordable
SUV": $35-$40K
Ave ICE Car
cost in US: $33K
Ave cost of Low-end
gas car in US: $22K
Assumptions:
4 miles/kWh,
50kWh batteries,
16% yearly improvement in
battery costs,
EV Costs = 3X cost of battery
Source: Clean Disruption
Clean Disruption Copyright ©
2001-2016 by Tony Seba

125. Autonomous
Ride-hailing,
Electric
Vehicles

126. Figure 2. Consumer Choices: cost-per-mile analysis9
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, Your Mechanic, U.S. Department of
Energy, U.S. Department of Transportation, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and uSwitch. See Appendix A for further
details on the methodology
Box 2: Cost of transport
choices
Based on our model, these are the costs-per-mile of
the choices that individual consumers will face as the
TaaS disruption unfolds. Consumers will face these
choices on day one (the disruption point):
Buy a new car
ê ICE: 65 cents (2021), rising to 78 cents10
(2030)
ê EV: 62 cents, falling to 61 cents
Use paid-off existing ICE vehicles
ê Operating cost only of ICE: 34 cents, falling to 31
cents
Use TaaS
ê TaaS: 16 cents, falling to 10 cents
ê TaaS Pool: 5 cents,11
falling to 3 cents
Annual savings per vehicle in 2021:
ê TaaS vs. driving paid-off existing ICE: $2,000
ê TaaS vs. new ICE: $5,600
Why is TaaS so cheap?
40% TaaS vehicle utilization, 10 times higher than IO vehicle utilization. Individually owned cars are used only 4% of the time. While there will be fewer cars,
Mobility at lower personal & social costs
Tony Seba & James Arbib, RethinkX, Disruptions, Implications, Choices -- Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, The Disruption of Transportation and
the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries , May 2017, http://www.rethinkx.com/

127. Figure 7. Revenue distribution along the car value chain
Sources: Authors’ calculations based on data from Auto Rental, Edmunds, Kelley Blue Book, Ibis World, Statista, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Energy, U.S. Energy Information
Administration and the Wall Street Journal
Vehicle fleet size will drop by over 80%, from 247 million vehicles in 2020
to 44 million in 2030. The major driver of a smaller total vehicle stock is
increased vehicle asset utilization (see Part I). Just 26 million vehicles will
deliver the 5.7 trillion passenger miles traveled via TaaS in the U.S. in 2030,
with the remaining 5% of miles attributed to 18 million legacy IO vehicles
(see Figure 8).
97 million ICE vehicles43
will be left stranded in 2030, representing the
surplus that will be in the vehicle stock as consumers move to TaaS. These
vehicles may eventually become entirely unsellable as used IO vehicle supply
ê New vehicle annual unit sales drop 70% by 2030, from 18 million in
2020 to 5.6 million in 2030 (see Figure 9). While the number of vehicles
in the overall stock drops by 80% over our timeframe, new vehicle sales
suffer a slightly lower decline. This is because each vehicle under TaaS is
travelling 10 times farther, and hence reaches its end of life more quickly.
Vehicles in the TaaS fleet are therefore on a faster replacement cycle (in
years) even though they have longer lifetimes (in miles).
ê New ICE vehicle sales44
are finished by 2024, just three years after the
regulatory approval and commercial availability of A-EV technology. In
Insurgents vs. Incumbents
Hollowing Out Major Industries
Tony Seba & James Arbib, RethinkX, Disruptions, Implications, Choices -- Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030, The Disruption of Transportation and
the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries , May 2017, http://www.rethinkx.com/

128. Extra
Slides if
Extra Time

129. SOLAR & WIND
ELECTRIFICATON
90% Global Total
Energy Services

131. Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National
Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.
Oil
Gas
Uranium
Coal
ANNUAL Wind
Hydro
Photosynthesis
ANNUAL Solar Energy
Annual global energy consumption by humans
SOLAR PHOTONS
ACCRUED IN A MONTH
EXCEED THE EARTH’S
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
1(
Nme(
use(

132. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—
on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!
15%'

133. that the turbine scaling and other improvements to turbine efficiency described in Chapter 4 have
more than overcome these headwinds to help drive PPA prices lower.
Source: Berkeley Lab
Figure 46. Generation-weighted average levelized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region
Figure 46 also shows trends in the generation-weighted average levelized PPA price over time
among four of the five regions broken out in Figure 30 (the Southeast region is omitted from
Figure 46 owing to its small sample size). Figures 45 and 46 both demonstrate that, based on our
data sample, PPA prices are generally low in the U.S. Interior, high in the West, and in the
middle in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. The large Interior region, where much of U.S.
wind project development occurs, saw average levelized PPA prices of just $22/MWh in 2013.
U.S.'Wind'Power'LCOE'PPA'in'2013'2.5¢/kWh'
Global'Wind'Power'LCOE'in'2013'6.5¢/kWh''
Ryan(Wiser(&(Mark(Bollinger,(2013(Wind(Technologies(Market(Report,(Lawrence(Berkeley,(August(2014(
6¢/kWh(
2¢/kWh(
4¢/kWh(
LCOE=Levelized(Cost(of(Electricity( PPA=Power(Purchase(Agreement(

134. ndent change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and ind
ls and WWS generators based on the state roadmaps proposed here. Total power demand decreases upon conver
ectricity over combustion and end-use energy efficiency measures. The percentages on the horizontal date a
that has occurred by that year. The percentages next to each WWS source are the final estimated penetration
mental Science
Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United
States, Journal of Energy & Environmental Science, May 17, 2015, Royal Society of Chemistry,
https://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS Energy System by 2050

135. www.go100re.net
http://100.org
http://thesolutionsproject.org/

136. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting, February
15, 2014, http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS World

137. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting, February
15, 2014, http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS World

138. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting, February
15, 2014, http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS World

139. 100% CALIFORNIA
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
Residential rooftop PV
7.5%
Solar PV plants
27%
CSP plants
15%
Onshore wind
25%
Offshore wind
10%
Commercial/govt
rooftop PV
5%
Wave devices
0.5%
Geothermal
5%
Hydroelectric
4.4%
Tidal turbines
0.5%
2050
PROJECTED
ENERGY MIX
40-Year Jobs Created
Number of jobs where a person
is employed for 40 consecutive years
Operation jobs:
Construction jobs:
=10,000
142,153
315,982
Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and
improving energy efficiency means you need much less energy.
-44.3%
Current demand Wind, Water, Solar
VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG
TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT
Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit
http://go100.me/50StateTargets
FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj
100% CALIFORNIA
VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG
TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT
Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit
http://go100.me/50StateTargets
FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj
P
Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes
(electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry)
Avoided Mortality and Illness Costs Percentage of California Land Needed for
All New WWS Generators
Future Energy Costs 2050 Money in Your Pocket
Avoided health costs per year:
2.9% of State GDP
Air pollution deaths avoided every year: 12,528
$128B
=1000
Plan pays for itself in as little as 2.6 years from air pollution and climate
cost savings alone
2.61%Spacing area
0.64%Footprint area
BAU (Business as usual) WWS (Wind, water, solar)
U.S. average fossil-fuel energy costs*
10.73 c/kWh
StateaverageWWS
electricitycosts
9.7 c/kWh
*Health and climate external costs of fossil fuels are another 5.7c/kWh
Annual energy, health, and climate cost savings per person
in 2050: $7,395
Annual energy cost savings per person in 2050: $161
= $2,000
The Solutions Project, http://thesolutionsproject.org/infographic/#ca

140. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries,
States, and the World With Wind, Water,
and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting,
February 15, 2014,
http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/
jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-
plans.html
Jacobson-
Delucchi 100%
WWS
California

141. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting, February
15, 2014, http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS Calif.

142. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting, February
15, 2014, http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS

143. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting, February
15, 2014, http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS

144. Mark Jacobson, Powering Countries, States, and the World With Wind, Water, and Sunlight, AAAS Annual Meeting, February
15, 2014, http://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/WWS-50-USState-plans.html
Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS

146. Rapid, affordable energy transformation
possible, study says
25 January 2016
A high-resolution map based on NOAA weather data
showing one measure of wind energy potential across
the United States in 2012. Credit: Chris Clack/CIRES
Nature Climate Change.
Although improvements in wind and solar
generation have continued to ratchet down the cost
of producing renewable energy, these energy
resources are inherently intermittent. As a result,
utilities have invested in surplus generation
capacity to back up renewable energy generation
with natural gas-fired generators and other
reserves.
"In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead
author Christopher Clack, a physicist and
mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for
Research in Environmental Sciences at the
University of Colorado Boulder.
Since the sun is shining or winds are blowing
somewhere across the United States all of the time,

147. Global Solar PV Installations grew 35% in 2015
& to 321 GW by end of 2016
http://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/gtm-research-global-solar-pv-installations-grew-34-in-2015?
utm_source=Solar&utm_medium=Newsletter&utm_campaign=GTMSolar
Global PV Demand 2004-2020E

148. Energy Payback Time (EPBT) in Years for
different locations and technologies
Solar Potential in kWh/m²/yr
Source: Fraunhofer FHI, Energy Payback Time, presentation
slides, and photovolatic report, p. 30–32[11] Table: kWh/
m²/a - kilowatt-hours per square metre per year, as Global
Horizontal Irradiation

149. . Res. Lett. 13 (2018) 054031
re 1. The duck curve (see definition in text). In the absence of interventions, the large-scale deployment of renewables targeted
alifornia will lead to significant challenges for the grid. These challenges are summarized with CAISO’s net load (duck curve)
asts. In March the energy demand is still low (air conditioning demand is low), but the amount of solar generation is already
ar to what is encountered in summer months.
4], into the existing power grid has been widely
sed. For a more thorough review of the lit-
e, see the supplementary materials available at
iop.org/ERL/13/054031/mmedia. In this study,
generating stations, which is often not cost effective,
or curtailment of renewable generation, which runs
counter to renewable energy goals.
2. Higheveningnet load,Pmax ,whenloadpeaksforthe
Coignard, Jonathan Samveg Saxena, Jeffery Greenblatt and Dai Wang (2018) Clean vehicles as an enabler for a clean electricity grid,
Environmental Research Letters, 13, 054031, IOP Publishing Ltd, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabe97
California’s Duck Curve
By 2025 the 7
GW/h ramp up
need will be
equal to 35
natural gas 600
MW power plants
over a 3 hour
period to ramp
from 0% to 100%
output.
To address Duck Curve, California PUC issued the Storage Mandate in 2013 that
targets deployment of 1.3 GW of stationary storage by the end of 2024.

150. Ambitious targets like Calif’s to decarbonize transportation
through EV expansion, and to decarbonize the electricity grid
through expansion of both WWS & storage, can provide
untapped synergistic opportunities.

151. Coignard, Jonathan Samveg Saxena, Jeffery Greenblatt and Dai Wang (2018) Clean vehicles as an enabler for a clean electricity grid, Environmental Research
Letters, 13, 054031, IOP Publishing Ltd, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aabe97
Ducking the Curve w/ lower cost V2G EVs
Calif.’s Storage Mandate can be achieved by the
ZEV Mandate (w/ controlled charging). The
capital investment for stationary storage can
instead be redirected to further accelerate
deployment of EVs with V2G integration, and
even pay EV owners when their vehicles are grid-
connected with controlled charging.
In this manner, not only are clean
vehicles an enabler for a clean
electricity grid at substantially lower
capital investment, but the avoided
costs of supporting renewables with
stationary storage can be used to
further accelerate the deployment of
clean vehicles.
EV100

152. 3
Load Net of Wind and Solar
Hours
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
500
0
We include the following ten strategies:
Strategy 1: Target energy efficiency to the hours when load ramps up sharply;
Strategy 2: Orient fixed-axis solar panels to the west;
Strategy 3: Substitute solar thermal with a few hours storage in place of some projected
solar PV generation;
Strategy 4: Implement service standards allowing the grid operator to manage electric
water heating loads to shave peaks and optimize utilization of available resources;
Strategy 5: Require new large air conditioners to include two hours of thermal storage
capacity under grid operator control;
Strategy 6: Retire inflexible generating plants with high off-peak must-run requirements;
Strategy 7: Concentrate utility demand charges into the “ramping hours” to enable price-
induced changes in load;
Strategy 8: Deploy electrical energy storage in targeted locations, including electric
vehicle charging controls;
Strategy 9: Implement aggressive demand-response programs; and
Strategy 10: Use inter-regional power transactions to take advantage of diversity in loads
and resources.2
2
Teaching the Sitting Duck to Fly
Lazar, Jim (2017) Teaching a Duck to Fly, Regulatory Assistance Project, http://www.raponline.org

153. Teaching the Sitting Duck to Fly
Lazar, Jim (2014) Teaching a Duck to
Fly, Regulatory Assistance Project,
http://www.raponline.org
Teaching the
“Duck” to Fly
Author
Jim Lazar
January 2014
that which would exist without the renewable resources, and also that the hour-to-hour
ramping requirements are smaller than would otherwise exist.
Thus, our modified post-renewable load is easier to serve than the actual load
projected to exist would have been without the addition of renewable resources. This
is desirable for almost any electric utility system, including those without significant
renewable energy deployment issues.
Figure 18
Post-Strategies Net Load Compared to Pre-Strategies Total Load
Initial Total Load
Initial Net Load
Post Strategies Net Load
Hours
MW
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
Teaching the “Duck” To Fly
It’s evident that the net load (including solar and wind) after application of the ten
strategies is a much more uniform load to serve from dispatchable resources even with the
non-solar/wind resources than the load that was forecast for this period without solar and
wind. The peaks have been lowered, the troughs raised, and the utility has control over a
portion of the load to schedule when it can most economically charge water heaters, air
conditioners, and batteries. In essence, the effect of the ten strategies is to reduce both
peaking needs and ramping requirements. The statistics in Table 3 illustrate this.
The post-renewable and post-strategy load/resource balance would be much easier to
Table 3
Load Factor and Maximum Hourly Ramping Requirements
Total Load
Without
Renewables or
Strategies
Net Load
With Renewables
and Without
Strategies
Net Load
With Renewables
and With
Strategies
Load Factor 73.6% 63.6% 83.3%
Maximum Hourly Ramp 500 MW 550 350 MW
Total Difference Between
Highest and Lowest Hour 1800 MW 2000 MW 950 MW

154. Global Wind Power Cumulative Capacity 1996-2014
60-fold
increase
Globally, wind installations are expected to reach
963 GW by the end of 2025*
http://cleantechnica.com/2015/09/22/chinas-wind-energy-capacity-triple-2020-globaldata/, September 22nd, 2015 by
Joshua S Hill *

155. 8 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov
Revolution Now: The Future Arrives for Four Clean Energy
Technologies. DOE. September 2014 (in press)
The Progress of Wind Power in the United
States
• 4.6% of U.S. 2014 power
generation1
• 42% of all 2012 U.S. power capacity
additions, the highest of any
resource 2
• Wind capacity more than doubled
from 2008-2012 (average of 8.7
GW/year) 3
• 59 GW wind capacity added from
2005 to 2014 4
• 11 states with > 10% wind
generation in 2014: Colorado, Idaho,
Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota,
North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon,
South Dakota, and Texas 5
– Two states with >25% wind
generation in 2014: Iowa (30%)
and South Dakota (25%)
• Average of 73,000 U.S. jobs in
installation, manufacturing and
operations over 2010-2014 6
Key Facts

157. © 2015 Clean Edge, Inc. (www.cleanedge.com). This report, and the models and analysis contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not
be reproduced, published, or summarized for distribution or incorporation into a report or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100
CHART 2: ANNUAL SOLAR AND WIND INSTALLATIONS,
2000-2014
Renewable energy’s growth in the United States has been equally dramatic. Ac-
cording to Clean Edge’s 2015 U.S. Clean Tech Leadership Index, which has tracked
clean-energy deployment in the states since 2010, a dozen states have roughly
doubled the percentage of electricity they receive from utility-scale renewable
sources over the past six years. And 11 states now receive more than 10% of their
in-state electricity generation from renewables. Three states – Iowa, South Dakota,
and Kansas – now receive more than 20% of their electricity from wind power
alone. California broke the 5% milestone for utility-scale solar PV generation in
2014, a first for any state.
While many factors have played a role in this growth,
the declining cost of renewable energy has arguably
been the most critical. In 2007, the global average cost of a solar
PV system spanning residential through utility-scale systems (in dollars per watt)
was $7.20. By 2014, that figure had fallen to $2.47 per watt according to Clean
Edge estimates, a decline of more than 65 percent in just seven years. Likewise,
in August 2015, the U.S. Department of Energy reported that power purchase
agreements (PPAs) for power produced in the wind-swept middle sections of the
country had fallen to as low as 2.24 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), down from 7
cents/kWh in 2009.
In a growing number of places, both wind and solar power are already cost-com-
petitive with fossil fuel-fired power plants, both in the U.S. and internationally – the
all-important tipping point known as grid parity. Numerous organizations including
the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC), and the financial advisory company Lazard, have published
recent figures showing a MWh of onshore wind power can be produced at least
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 200620072008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Wind CAGR: 20.59%
Solar PV CAGR: 42.83%
Wind Annual Installed Capacity (GW)
Solar PV Annual Installed Capacity (GW)
Source: Clean Edge research
rein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not
ent without prior approval. 5GETTING TO 100
why
m for
and
ex-
nual
r PV
.6%
xpe-
stry.
0.
ping
niza-
ural
nted
ind,
les
wer
ely
CHART 1: SOLAR PV AND WIND MARKET SIZE,
2000-2014 ($ BILLIONS)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
2000 2001 2002 2003200420052006 2007 200820092010 2011 2012 20132014
CAGR:27.60%
Wind
Solar
Source: Clean Edge research
Wind CAGR: 20.7%
Solar PV CAGR: 42.8%
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)

158. https://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/, December 7, 2015 / charlieonenergy
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839
HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT
SOLAR PV GLOBAL GROWTH?
TW
years
2012 2050
15% year growth
10% yr growth
20
4
Current Global Energy Consumption in TW-years
25% year growth
60
Rate dependent upon how fiercely, effectively, and unendingly fossil
fuel advocates are at deterring, delaying, derailing Solar PV
Ray Kurzweil and Larry Page, calculate solar PV growth achieving 8 doublings within the next several decades,
matching total global energy demand, prepared for National Academy of Engineers Workshop of Experts, 2008
2028 2035

159. What’s the Size of the U.S. Wind Resource?
Authoritative Estimate: Developable wind resource is
13 times total U.S. electricity consumption

160. AWEA

161. Evolution of Wind Turbine Size
(Land Based)
Ed DeMeo, Governors’ Wind & Solar Energy, Coalition Policy Priorities Workshop, June 19, 2015,
http://www.governorswindenergycoalition.org/?page_id=13502
Evolution of Wind Turbine Size (Land Based)

162. https://www.ge.com/renewableenergy/wind-energy/turbines/haliade-x-offshore-turbine
Haliade-X 120X bigger than 1985 turbine &
generating 30,000 X more electricity per year

163. Expanding from 0.28 TW
in 2012 to
1.2 TW by 2020 (20% per
year growth rate
2012-2020)
5 TW by 2030
(15%/year 2011-2030)
33 TW by 2050
(10%/yr from 2031-2050)
HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT
GLOBAL GROWTH OF RURAL- &
COASTAL-BASED WIND FARMS?
years
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39
TW
2012 2050
1 million 5-MW
6.6 million 5-MW
400,000 3-MW
~140,000 2-MW

164. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income

165. http://energy.gov/eere/articles/unlocking-our-nation-s-wind-potential
New map shows how taller wind turbines can help unlock wind's potential in all 50 states, especially
in the southeastern U.S.

166. 9
U.S. Lagging Other Countries in Wind As a
Percentage of Electricity Consumption
Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind
power capacity at the end of 2014

167. Best Research Photovoltaic Cell Efficiencies

169. Lab-efficiency > 20 % &
2 % share overall PV
market in 2013.
Silicon Solar Cells
Solar cell efficiencies of devices using these materials increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.
Lab-efficiency > 20 % &
2 % share overall PV
market in 2013.
Lab-efficiency > 20 % &
2 % share overall PV
market in 2013.

170. Crystal structure of CH3NH3PbX3
perovskites (X=I, Br and/or Cl). The
methylammonium cation (CH3NH3+) is
surrounded by PbX6 octahedra
Perovskite Solar Cells
Solar cell efficiencies of devices using these materials increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.

171. Lab-efficiency > 20 % & 2 % share overall PV
market in 2013.
Copper Indium Gallium Selenide solar cell.
Red = Cu, Yellow = Se, Blue = In/Ga
Thin Film Solar Cells
Solar cell efficiencies of devices using these materials increased
from 3.8% in 2009 to 21.0% in 2015.
5 percent of worldwide PV
production, & half the thin film
market. FirstSolar 14 % efficient &
price below 60 cents per watt
CIGS CdTe

172. Nuclear Fission Power is fueled by
concentrated radioactive atoms, that
then need permanent storage for
millennia
Solar Fusion (nuclear) Power
distributes photons that excite
electrons in semi-conductor atoms

173. 208,000 buildings
equivalent to
Empire State
Building are
planned for
construction
through 2030
HOW TO ACCELERATE INTEGRATED
DESIGN (& DEEP RENOVATION) IN
THE GLOBAL BUILDING SECTOR?Prior to 2008, the Empire State Building’s
to most U.S. office buildings.
I. MOTIVATION
1) Prove or disprove the economic viabilit
retrofits.
source: Ed Mazria, Architecture 2030, ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS, June 4, 2014, submission to Durban Platform for Enhanced Action; citing and
Adapted from, Dobbs, Richard. Insights & Publications. 06-2012. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/
urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class

174. Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

175. Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all
personal motorized transportation in China.
120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China
$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh –
twice as expensive as solar PV electricity
Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons
for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up

176. Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines
Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally
Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015

177. Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide

178. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

179. Of these 11 analyses, the median value of Net metering policies have been critical to the
Figure ES-1: Retail Electricity Rates and the Values of Solar Energy in 11 Cost-Benefit Analyses.
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
35.00
CentsperkWh
(U)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, utilities
(PUC)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, public utilities commissions
(O)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, non-utility organizations
Retail Electricity Rate
Value of Solar
Retail Electricity Rate
Value of Solar
Average Retail Residential Electricity Rates
Compared to Values of Solar in 11 Cost-Benefit Analysis
https://ilsr.org/solar-net-metering-a-subsidy-to-utilities/ John Farrell, June 25, 2015
U U U O O PUC O O PUC O O
(U)—Studies written by, or
commissioned by, utilities
(PUC)—Studies written by,
or commissioned by, public
utilities commissions
(O)—Studies written by, or
commissioned by, non-utility
organizations

180. Categories of Benefits & Costs Included in Each Value of
Solar Energy Cost-Benefit Analysis*
Solar Energy is Worth More Than the Benefits from Net Metering 15
ety, or did it only consider a limited number of direct
benefits to the grid and the utility?
The most basic way to value solar, and the most
common, is to calculate the avoided costs that result
from its expansion.29
In other words, what costs do
Value Provided by Solar Energy
Usually Exceeds Benefits from Net
Metering
Nearly all analyses that consider a full range of solar
energy benefits find that the value provided by
Table 2: Categories of Benefits and Costs Included in Each Solar Energy Cost-Benefit Analysis.*
Author
Costs of
Solar
Integration
Not
Specified
Avoided
Energy
Costs
Avoided
Capital and
Capacity
Investment
Reduced
Financial
Risks
Grid
Resiliency
Cost of
Environ-
mental
Compliance
Avoided
Greenhouse
Gas Emissions
Economic
Development
Total (cents
per kWh)
SAIC 3.56
Xcel 8.04
CPR (Austin) 10.70
CPR (Utah) 11.60
CPR (San
Antonio) 15.80
Synapse 16.90
Crossborder
Energy (AZ) 23.50
CPR (NJ) 28.10
Acadia 29.06
CPR (PA) 31.90
Maine PUC 33.60
*Colored cells represent categories that were included in the solar energy cost-benefit calculation*Colored cells represent categories included in the solar energy cost-benefit calculation
SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Rooftop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey Hallock, Frontier Group
Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center, Summer 2015

181. A Comparison of Cost-Benefit Analyses of Solar Energy
by Study and Category
SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Rooftop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey Hallock, Frontier Group
Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center, Summer 2015
Figure ES-2: A Comparison of Cost-Benefit Analyses of Solar Energy by Study and Category.
when evaluating programs that compen-
sate customers for the solar electricity they
provide to the grid.
policies, including multifamily homes or homes
without out sunny roofs, by implementing
virtual net metering programs.
-3
2
7
12
17
22
27
32
ValueofSolar(centsperkWh)
(U)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, utilities
(PUC)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, public utilities commissions
(O)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, non-utility organizations
*Lines indicate the value of solar energy as calculated in the analysis
Additional Environmental Benefits
Avoided Cost of Environmental Compliance
Grid Resiliency
Reduced Financial Risks and Electricity Prices
Avoided Capital and Capacity Investment
Avoided Energy Costs
Not Specified
Costs of Solar Integration

182. Luke Mills, Joseph Byrne, Clean Energy Investment: Q4 2015 Factpack, January 2016, Bloomberg New Energy Finance,
Clean energy investments in 2015
hit new record of $329bn

183. and on-bill models have developed independently as a response to market demand.
Figure 2: Energy Efficiency Finance Models
Financing
Model
Energy Savings
Performance
Contract (ESPC)
Energy
Services
Agreement
(ESA)
Managed
Energy
Services
Agreement
(MESA)
Property Assessed
Clean Energy
(PACE)
On-Bill
Financing/
Repayment
(OBF/OBR)
Market
Penetration
High for MUSH;
low for
Commercial and
Industrial
Low Low Low Low
Target Market
Segment
MUSH,
Commercial,
and Industrial
MUSH,
Commercial,
and
Industrial
MUSH,
Commercial,
and
Industrial
Residential,
Commercial
Residential,
Commercial,
and
Industrial
Balance Sheet On or Off On or Off On or Off Undetermined On or Off
Typical
Project Size
Unlimited
$250,000 -
$10 million
$250,000 -
$10 million
$2,000 - $2.5
million
$5,000 -
$350,000
Allows for
Extensive
Retrofits
Yes Yes Yes Yes No
Repayment
Method
Energy savings
Energy
savings
Energy
savings
Property
assessments
Via utility
bill
Security/
Collateral
Depends on
financing (e.g.,
lease or debt)
Equipment Equipment Assessment Lien
Equipment;
Service
termination
Responsibility
for Utility Bills
ESCO or
Customer
Customer
MESA
provider
Customer Customer
This section describes each of these emerging models in brief and provides an assessment of the
advantages and disadvantages associated with each.
source: Innovations and Opportunities in Energy Efficiency Finance, White Paper, 2nd edition, May 2012, Wilson, Sonsini, Goodrich & Rosati
*MUSH= Municipalities, Universities, Schools & Hospitals
*