This document discusses several policy issues related to combating climate change through optimal climate policy design. It examines questions around determining the optimal tradeoff between economic growth and reducing global warming, optimal time paths for carbon taxes and renewable energy subsidies, and when to phase out fossil fuels. It also analyzes scenarios from a integrated assessment model that calibrates parameters to simulate policy outcomes of different climate policy approaches and their impacts on temperatures, fossil fuel and renewable energy use, carbon emissions and more.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
Georg Erdmann, Prof. for Energy System at the Berlin University of Technology WEC Italia
Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy
Serge has a simple and clear goal: help build an attractive, fossil-free future. In 2017 he launched FutureproofedCities — a cloud-based app to helping municipalities to drive climate plans and actions. Serge shows how innovative technology helps addressing climate change impact and how climate change is a driver for innovation.
A report published by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions in June 2013 which looks at how the use of natural gas can be paired with renewable energy sources in the coming years to further reduce so-called greenhouse gas emissions--carbon and methane--which theoretically will help reduce (don't laugh), "climate change." Of course the climate changes all the time, but don't tell the politicians and Mother Earth worshipers that.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
Georg Erdmann, Prof. for Energy System at the Berlin University of Technology WEC Italia
Slides presentate in occasione del Seminario "The Energy transition in Europe: different pathways, same destination? organizzato da Edison in collaborazione con WEC Italia il 29 maggio 2013 a Roma - TWITTER #NRGstrategy
Serge has a simple and clear goal: help build an attractive, fossil-free future. In 2017 he launched FutureproofedCities — a cloud-based app to helping municipalities to drive climate plans and actions. Serge shows how innovative technology helps addressing climate change impact and how climate change is a driver for innovation.
A report published by the Center for Climate and Energy Solutions in June 2013 which looks at how the use of natural gas can be paired with renewable energy sources in the coming years to further reduce so-called greenhouse gas emissions--carbon and methane--which theoretically will help reduce (don't laugh), "climate change." Of course the climate changes all the time, but don't tell the politicians and Mother Earth worshipers that.
Harris, MEMR - Indonesia's RE Investment Promotion Strategy in Eastern IslandsOECD Environment
Presentation by Harris, MEMR - OECD Focus Group Discussion: Investment models for scaling up renewable energy deployment in Indonesia's eastern islands, 21 October 2020
Greenhouse Gas Regulations: Advising Clients in an Uncertain Legal EnvironmentDave Scriven-Young
Presentation to the Chicago Bar Association concerning efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and curb climate change by Congress, the international community, U.S. federal agencies, and the courts.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
The Unscientific Fantasy: 100% RenewablesKarl Pauls
27-9-2017 at Ada's Technical Books, Jim Conca presents a lecture and answers questions on the Stanford University / Mark Z. Jacobson 100 Percent Renewables proposal.
Credits:
Speaker - Jim Conca
Host - Seattle Friends of Fission
Venue - Ada's Technical Books, Seattle, WA
Video, Audio - Karl Pauls
Audio - Charles H. / KBFG Radio 107.3 Seattle, WA
Video on YouTube:
https://youtu.be/8iQnMYGUwiE
Downloadable audio available on soundcloud:
https://soundcloud.com/karl-pauls/seattle-friends-of-fission-27-9-2017-jim-conca-unscientific-fantasy-100-percent-renewables
Harris, MEMR - Indonesia's RE Investment Promotion Strategy in Eastern IslandsOECD Environment
Presentation by Harris, MEMR - OECD Focus Group Discussion: Investment models for scaling up renewable energy deployment in Indonesia's eastern islands, 21 October 2020
Greenhouse Gas Regulations: Advising Clients in an Uncertain Legal EnvironmentDave Scriven-Young
Presentation to the Chicago Bar Association concerning efforts to regulate greenhouse gas emissions and curb climate change by Congress, the international community, U.S. federal agencies, and the courts.
Il World Energy Focus, nuovo mensile online della WEC's community, una e-publication gratuita per essere sempre aggiornato sugli sviluppi del settore energetico. Il World Energy Focus contiene news, interviste esclusive e uno spazio dedicato agli eventi promossi dai singoli Comitati Nazionali.
The Unscientific Fantasy: 100% RenewablesKarl Pauls
27-9-2017 at Ada's Technical Books, Jim Conca presents a lecture and answers questions on the Stanford University / Mark Z. Jacobson 100 Percent Renewables proposal.
Credits:
Speaker - Jim Conca
Host - Seattle Friends of Fission
Venue - Ada's Technical Books, Seattle, WA
Video, Audio - Karl Pauls
Audio - Charles H. / KBFG Radio 107.3 Seattle, WA
Video on YouTube:
https://youtu.be/8iQnMYGUwiE
Downloadable audio available on soundcloud:
https://soundcloud.com/karl-pauls/seattle-friends-of-fission-27-9-2017-jim-conca-unscientific-fantasy-100-percent-renewables
Περιγραφή της δράσης/ εκστρατείας
Οι μαθητές του Ε2 του 2ου Πρότυπου Πειραματικού Δημοτικού Σχολείου Ρόδου, πραγματοποίησαν μία εκστρατεία, η οποία περιλάμβανε μια σειρά από δράσεις ευαισθητοποίησης απέναντι στα ζώα. Στα πλαίσια της εκστρατείας «Η Ακαδημία για τα ζώα», οι μαθητές:
• Έστειλαν επίσημη αιτητική επιστολή στην διεύθυνση του Σχολείου, προκειμένου να πάρουν έγκριση για τη διεξαγωγή των δράσεων στα πλαίσια της εκστρατείας.
• Δημιούργησαν ενημερωτικά φυλλάδια σχετικά με την εκστρατεία, τα οποία μοιράστηκαν στο σύνολο των μαθητών του σχολείου.
• Δημιούργησαν λογαριασμό ηλεκτρονικού ταχυδρομείου ειδικά για τις ανάγκες τις εκστρατείας, στον οποίο καλούσαν τους μαθητές των υπολοίπων τάξεων να στείλουν φωτογραφίες με τα δικά τους κατοικίδια ζώα.
• Κατασκεύασαν ετικέτες με το όνομα της εκστρατείας, προκειμένου να φορεθούν κατά τη διάρκεια της ενημέρωσης από τα όλους τους συμμετέχοντες στην εκστρατεία.
• Έφτιαξαν αφίσες με ενημερωτικό περιεχόμενο σχετικά με τα οφέλη που προσφέρουν στον άνθρωπο τα κατοικίδια ζώα και το νέο νόμο που ψηφίστηκε το 2014 στην Ελλάδα για τα ζώα.
• Συνέταξαν και μορφοποίησαν ενημερωτικό φυλλάδιο με φιλοζωικό χαρακτήρα , το οποίο και αναπαρήγαγαν με δικά τους έξοδα, προκειμένου να μοιραστεί σε γονείς και μαθητές.
• Έγραψαν και σκηνοθέτησαν μικρού μήκους ταινία, με φιλοζωικό περιεχόμενο ευαισθητοποίησης, την οποία και προέβαλαν στη χριστουγεννιάτικη γιορτή του σχολείου μας.
• Συγκέντρωσαν το χρηματικό ποσό των 270 ευρώ, με το οποίο αγόρασαν 360 κιλά ζωοτροφή (για σκύλους), την οποία και μοίρασαν εξίσου στους 3 μεγαλύτερους φιλοζωικούς μη κερδοσκοπικούς συλλόγους του νησιού σ
Ο απολογισμός των δράσεων ήταν θετικός.
Τα παιδιά οικοδόμησαν γνώσεις πάνω στα οικολογικά θέματα, ενώ ανέπτυξαν σχετικές δεξιότητες και υιοθέτησαν στάσεις φιλικές προς αυτά.
Οι δράσεις υλοποιήθηκαν χωρίς ιδιαίτερες δυσκολίες, με βάση τον αρχικό, καλά σχεδιασμένο προγραμματισμό.
Το σχολείο απέκτησε επιπλέον εμπειρία στις οικολογικές δράσεις και θα συνεχίσει να συμβάλει στην διαμόρφωση των αυριανών ενεργών και περιβαλλοντικά εγγράμματων πολιτών
Apresentação da Defesa de Mestrado em Comunicação na USCS - Universidade Municipal de São Caetano do Sul -SP, para o GENN/ECA/ABERJE - Grupo de Estudos de Novas Narrativas, grupo de pesquisa vinculado à ECA-USP e à Aberje.
ΔΙΑΤΡΟΦΙΚΗ ΔΙΑΧΕΙΡΙΣΗ: Οι μαθητές μας προτείνουν συνταγές με βάση το ελαιόλαδο, βασιμένοι στην αξία της μεσογειακής διατροφής, οικειοποιούμενοι ταυτόχρονα τις ευρωπαικές οδηγίες για την ορθή επιλογή του κατάλληλου ελαιόλαδου.
Ο παραδοσιακός κώδικας για την αξία του ελαιόλαδου, επαληθεύεται, ολοκληρώνεται και προάγεται μέσω της ευρωπαικής οδηγίας. . Ουσιαστικά φαίνεται η γνώση των μαθητών μας να μετουσιώνεται σε στάση ζωής.
Οι μαθητές μας και οι οικογένειες τους μπορούν να συμβουλευτούν τον παραπάνω κατάλογο από την ιστοσελίδα του σχολείου μας.
This project enumerates ways to mitigate climate change through eight strategies. Each strategy, called as 'wedge', when implemented could reduce carbon emission by 1b ton by 2055. This project prioritizes these strategies based on cost of implementation and public opinion. Ranks are assigned from 1 to 8, with 1 for highly feasible [low cost and less criticism] and 8 for hardly feasible.
As seen from the presentation, adopting to biofuels is found to be least feasible (rank-8), followed by fuel switching for electricity (rank-7). In contrast, improving transport efficiency is found to be highly feasible (rank-1), followed by efficiency in electricity production (rank-2). Justifications (qualitative and quantitative) are provided for the ranking of each strategy.
In the concluding slides, stakeholder perspectives are provided for automobile industry and industrial/developing nations. The climate wedges concept was developed by Princeton University, Ford and BP to find solutions to greenhouse gas problem (see references).
Reference:
- Carbon Mitigation Initiative http://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/
- Stabilization Wedges Game https://cmi.princeton.edu/wedges/pdfs/teachers_guide.pdf
This work is done as a part of graduate course titled Global Air Pollutants in Spring 2016. The author was pursuing MS in Environmental Engineering Sciences at University of Florida during the making of this project.
Climate Change mitigation: practical measures to limit global warming IPCC re...GreenFacts
The IPCC uses a very specific language when it comes to expressing the degree of uncertainty or agreement for each statement in the fifth assessment report. For an overview of the specific meaning of each qualifier, you can read the relevant section in our summary of the Working Group I report.
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 30, Number 1—Winter 20.docxcroysierkathey
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 30, Number 1—Winter 2016—Pages 117–138
F ossil fuels provide substantial economic benefits, but in recent decades, a series of concerns have arisen about their environmental costs. In the United States, for example, the Clean Air Act in 1970 and 1977 addressed concerns
over the emissions of so-called conventional pollutions, notably airborne particulate
matter, by imposing fuel economy standards on vehicles and regulations to reduce
emissions from stationary sources. During the 1980s, concerns mounted about how
the combustion of fossil fuels could lead to acid rain and rising ozone levels. The
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 created frameworks to reduce sulfur dioxide
and nitrogen oxide from power plant emissions, as well as from the combustion
of gasoline and diesel fuels in vehicles. However, in many of the world’s largest
cities in the emerging economies around the world, the conventional forms of
air pollution from burning fossil fuels—especially particulates, sulfur oxides,
and nitrogen oxides—are still exacting a heavy toll on human health (Chay and
Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?
■ Thomas Covert is Assistant Professor of Microeconomics, Booth School of Business, Univer-
sity of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Michael Greenstone is the Milton Friedman Professor in
Economics and the College and Director of the Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, both at the
University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Christopher R. Knittel is William Barton Rogers
Professor of Energy Economics, Sloan School of Management, and Director of the Center for
Energy and Environmental Policy Research, all at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, Massachusetts. Greenstone and Knittel are also Research Associates, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Their email addresses are thomas.
[email protected], [email protected], and [email protected]
† For supplementary materials such as appendices, datasets, and author disclosure statements, see the
article page at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.1.117 doi=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Thomas Covert, Michael Greenstone, and
Christopher R. Knittel
j_covert_301.indd 117 1/20/16 6:57 AM
118 Journal of Economic Perspectives
Greenstone 2003; Chen, Ebenstein, Greenstone, and Li 2013; Knittel, Miller, and
Sanders forthcoming).
By the mid-1990s, concerns about the role of fossil fuels in generating emis-
sions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases gained traction. Approximately
65 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are generated by fossil fuel combus-
tion.1 Of these emissions, coal is responsible for 45 percent, oil for 35 percent, and
natural gas for 20 percent.2 To reduce carbon dioxide emissions by enough to miti-
gate the chance of disruptive climate change in a substantial way, there would seem to
be only two possible options. One is to find ways to capture carbon from the air and
store it. T ...
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 30, Number 1—Winter 20.docxtawnyataylor528
Journal of Economic Perspectives—Volume 30, Number 1—Winter 2016—Pages 117–138
F ossil fuels provide substantial economic benefits, but in recent decades, a series of concerns have arisen about their environmental costs. In the United States, for example, the Clean Air Act in 1970 and 1977 addressed concerns
over the emissions of so-called conventional pollutions, notably airborne particulate
matter, by imposing fuel economy standards on vehicles and regulations to reduce
emissions from stationary sources. During the 1980s, concerns mounted about how
the combustion of fossil fuels could lead to acid rain and rising ozone levels. The
Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 created frameworks to reduce sulfur dioxide
and nitrogen oxide from power plant emissions, as well as from the combustion
of gasoline and diesel fuels in vehicles. However, in many of the world’s largest
cities in the emerging economies around the world, the conventional forms of
air pollution from burning fossil fuels—especially particulates, sulfur oxides,
and nitrogen oxides—are still exacting a heavy toll on human health (Chay and
Will We Ever Stop Using Fossil Fuels?
■ Thomas Covert is Assistant Professor of Microeconomics, Booth School of Business, Univer-
sity of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Michael Greenstone is the Milton Friedman Professor in
Economics and the College and Director of the Energy Policy Institute at Chicago, both at the
University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois. Christopher R. Knittel is William Barton Rogers
Professor of Energy Economics, Sloan School of Management, and Director of the Center for
Energy and Environmental Policy Research, all at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, Massachusetts. Greenstone and Knittel are also Research Associates, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts. Their email addresses are thomas.
[email protected], [email protected], and [email protected]
† For supplementary materials such as appendices, datasets, and author disclosure statements, see the
article page at
http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.30.1.117 doi=10.1257/jep.30.1.117
Thomas Covert, Michael Greenstone, and
Christopher R. Knittel
j_covert_301.indd 117 1/20/16 6:57 AM
118 Journal of Economic Perspectives
Greenstone 2003; Chen, Ebenstein, Greenstone, and Li 2013; Knittel, Miller, and
Sanders forthcoming).
By the mid-1990s, concerns about the role of fossil fuels in generating emis-
sions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases gained traction. Approximately
65 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions are generated by fossil fuel combus-
tion.1 Of these emissions, coal is responsible for 45 percent, oil for 35 percent, and
natural gas for 20 percent.2 To reduce carbon dioxide emissions by enough to miti-
gate the chance of disruptive climate change in a substantial way, there would seem to
be only two possible options. One is to find ways to capture carbon from the air and
store it. T ...
The evolution of the GDP with a scarcity of the natural resourcesEfraim Chababe
The 21st century being marked by the transition to green energies and to the 2020 and 2050 milestones set by global meetings on climate changes, our current transition pace is far too low when taking into account the expected progression of the GDP, and
countries' carbon footprint instead of their carbon emission.
This presentation poster infographic delves into the multifaceted impacts of globalization through the lens of Nike, a prominent global brand. It explores how globalization has reshaped Nike's supply chain, marketing strategies, and cultural influence worldwide, examining both the benefits and challenges associated with its global expansion.
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Nike Shops Worldwide
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Nike Product Development
Nike Marketing Strategies
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Nike Distribution Centers
Automation in Nike Manufacturing
Nike Consumer Direct Acceleration
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Lecture slide titled Fraud Risk Mitigation, Webinar Lecture Delivered at the Society for West African Internal Audit Practitioners (SWAIAP) on Wednesday, November 8, 2023.
Abhay Bhutada Leads Poonawalla Fincorp To Record Low NPA And Unprecedented Gr...Vighnesh Shashtri
Under the leadership of Abhay Bhutada, Poonawalla Fincorp has achieved record-low Non-Performing Assets (NPA) and witnessed unprecedented growth. Bhutada's strategic vision and effective management have significantly enhanced the company's financial health, showcasing a robust performance in the financial sector. This achievement underscores the company's resilience and ability to thrive in a competitive market, setting a new benchmark for operational excellence in the industry.
How to get verified on Coinbase Account?_.docxBuy bitget
t's important to note that buying verified Coinbase accounts is not recommended and may violate Coinbase's terms of service. Instead of searching to "buy verified Coinbase accounts," follow the proper steps to verify your own account to ensure compliance and security.
2. Elemental Economics - Mineral demand.pdfNeal Brewster
After this second you should be able to: Explain the main determinants of demand for any mineral product, and their relative importance; recognise and explain how demand for any product is likely to change with economic activity; recognise and explain the roles of technology and relative prices in influencing demand; be able to explain the differences between the rates of growth of demand for different products.
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
The secret way to sell pi coins effortlessly.DOT TECH
Well as we all know pi isn't launched yet. But you can still sell your pi coins effortlessly because some whales in China are interested in holding massive pi coins. And they are willing to pay good money for it. If you are interested in selling I will leave a contact for you. Just telegram this number below. I sold about 3000 pi coins to him and he paid me immediately.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Eco-Innovations and Firm Heterogeneity.Evidence from Italian Family and Nonf...
Policy issues in combating climate change, Frederick van der Ploeg
1. Policy issues in combating climate change
How to determine optimal trade-off between growth and combating global warming?
What is the first-best optimal global climate policy?
Time paths for carbon tax and renewable subsidy?
Allow for green Ramsey growth IAM with exhaustible fossil fuel and directed technical change (learning by doing in renewable use): “Third Way” for climate policy.
When to abandon fossil fuel and to phase in renewable energy?
How much fossil fuel to leave in the crust of the earth (‘stranded assets’)?
How much better than business as usual?
How well do second-best climate policies fare which rely on renewable subsidy only. Green Paradox?
2. Distinguishing features
Fossil fuel extraction cost increase as less reserves are left, which gives rise to untapped fossil fuel.
Price of fossil fuel consists of this cost, the scarcity rent and the carbon tax (set to the social cost of carbon).
Renewable energy becomes cheaper as more is used (learning by doing – directed technical change). This gives rise to an intermediate phase where renewable and fossil fuel energy are used alongside each other.
Social price of renewable energy corresponds to this cost minus a learning-by-doing subsidy.
Temporary population boom & ongoing technical progress.
3. Messages
Need aggressive renewable subsidy to bring renewable energy quickly into use and a gradually rising carbon tax to price and phase out fossil fuel energy.
Optimal carbon tax is a fixed proportion of world GDP with log utility, Cobb-Douglas production, 100% depreciation, zero fossil fuel extraction costs, and exponential damages (Golosov et al., 2014) .
But relationship between the optimal carbon tax and GDP is hump-shaped with CES production, EIS = 0.5, less than 100% depreciation and more realistic global warming damages.
The simple formula for the optimal carbon tax performs badly if it has to address multiple market failures.
4. Carbon cycle
20% of carbon emissions stays up forever in the atmosphere and the remaining part has a mean lifetime of 300 years.
About half carbon impulse is removed after thirty years.
The equilibrium climate sensitivity is set to 3 in line with IPCC (2007), so doubling of carbon stock leads to 3 additional degrees Celsius. Has been revised downwards.
Ignores time lag of about 70 years between peak temperature and emissions (Gerlagh and Liski, 2013).
Ignores positive feedback: e.g., release of carbon from the ocean floors at higher temperatures
5. What’s left of GDP after damages from warming?
Our IAM supposes damages rise quite rapidly!
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Nordhaus-Weitzman
Golosov et al.
6. A Green Ramsey IAM
Social planner maximizes utilitarian welfare with rate of impatience and intergenerational inequality aversion IIA = 1/E.I.S. = 1/ subject to:
capital accumulation driven by what is left of output net of climate damages after depreciation, energy costs and consumption of final goods,
accumulation of the permanent and the transient components of the carbon stock,
depletion of fossil fuel reserves, and
accumulation of stock of cumulative knowledge in using renewable energy.
7. Efficiency conditions
Keynes-Ramsey rule: the interest rate is the rate of impatience plus the wealth effect – higher growth and more inequality aversion imply a higher discount rate and thus a lower social cost of carbon and less stranded assets.
Hotelling rule: capital gains on extra barrel in ground must equal return from taking out an extra barrel (interest minus marginal increase in extraction cost). Hence, scarcity rent of depleting an extra barrel of oil is the present value of all future marginal increases in extraction costs resulting from this.
8. Social benefit of using renewable energy and social cost of carbon
The social cost of carbon (SCC) is the present value of all future marginal climate damages resulting from burning an additional ton of carbon. The carbon tax should equal to internalize global warming externalities.
The SCC increases if time impatience is less, climate damages impact production more, decay of atmospheric carbon is less and the climate sensitivity is bigger.
Social benefit of using an extra unit of renewable energy is the present value of all future reductions in marginal cost of renewable energy. A renewable subsidy ensures this social benefit of learning-by-doing externalities is internalized.
9. Phases, timing & how much reserves to abandon
Initial fossil fuel only phase.
Intermediate phase – joint use of fossil fuel and renewable.
Final carbon-free phase: only use renewable energy.
Energy price cannot jump at phase switches switch time.
Zero scarcity rent and condition that social cost of fossil fuel and energy are same fossil fuel left untapped.
Stranded assets thus increase with SCC and decrease with cost of renewable energy and renewable subsidy at that time.
10. A simple formula for the social cost of carbon
With IIA = 1, Cobb-Douglas production, 100% depreciation each decade and no capital needed to extract fossil fuel, the SCC is proportional to world GDP (Golosov et al., 2014):
A lower discount rate pushes up the SCC.
The optimal ratio of the carbon tax to GDP is independent of technology and the depreciation rate.
Does not take account of other market distortions.
5112.379100.20.80.393.tGDP
11. Calibration
Intergenerational inequality aversion is 2 > 1.
Time impatience is 10%/decade or 0.96%/year.
Depreciation of capital is 0.5 per decade or 6.7%/year.
Factor substitution elasticity 0.5, capital share 0.35 and energy share 0.06.
World population is 6.5 billion in 2010, grows initially at 1% per year and flattens off to a plateau of 8.6 billion.
Total factor productivity growth starts at 2% per year and flattens off at 3 times initial level.
Fossil fuel extraction costs quadruple if another 2000 GtC is extracted (0.35 divided by fraction of initial reserves that are left so ).
12. Calibration continued
Use initial world GDP (63 $T) to back out initial TFP.
Use Nordhaus’ cost of decarbonising economy (5.6% of GDP) and cost of producing conventional energy (6.4%), through learning by doing this cost can be reduced by 60% to a lower limit of 5% of GDP, and cost of energy drops by 20% in a decade if all energy is renewable.
This gives production cost per unit of renewable energy as b(B t) = 0.8 + 1.2 exp(0.008 Bt).
13. Policy simulations
Calibration in line with standard parameters but on upper end of renewable estimates (more available).
Solution decade by decade from 2010 to 2600.
4 policy scenarios: ‘laissez-faire’, ‘only tax’, ‘only subsidy’, and ‘optimal’ (solid lines).
Colour coding:
16. 1000
2000
3000
4000
2010
2060
2110
2160
GtC
Fossil Reserves, St
300
500
700
900
1100
2010
2060
2110
2160
$ / tC
Production cost of renewables b(Bt)
17. Global warming, the great transition and stranded assets
The optimal policy mix combines a carbon tax from 100$/tC in 2010 to 275$/tC in 2050 with a renewable subsidy starting with 160$/tCe, rising rapidly to 380$/tCe in 2030 and then tapering off to zero quickly
So quickly make renewable energy competitive and have a gradually rising carbon tax to price fossil fuel out of the market. This policy limits warming to 2.3°C.
Under “laissez faire” temperature rises to 5.3°C. Missing markets lead to a transitory capital over-accumulation, inducing severe climate damage and a fall in capital stock. Rising extraction costs drive transition.
The optimal transition uses 400 GtC in total, but under “laissez faire” uses more than 2,500 GtC.
No policy welfare loss is 73% of today’s global GDP.
18. National second best outcome
30 years of climate negotiations have utterly failed. How about national renewable subsidies?
Level and duration of subsidy increases compared with first best to compensate for lack of carbon tax.
Temperature is limited to 3.70 C and the welfare loss is only 10% of GDP compared to first best.
If only a carbon tax is in place, the welfare loss is only 3% of GDP compared to first best.
Important to prioritize the carbon tax, but renewable subsidy is not such a bad second-best instrument to avert the worst of global warming.
20. Scarcity rents and Green Paradox
Optimal carbon policies and renewable subsidies lower market prices of fossil fuel but increase social prices of fossil fuel, so it becomes less attractive to use them for business. Hotelling rents fall.
Under laissez faire the Hotelling rent is very large.
With only renewable subsidy, the renewable subsidy depresses fossil fuel use and the Hotelling rent. Without a carbon tax, the market price of fossil energy falls below laissez faire so more fossil fuel is used than under laissez faire (blue line lower than brown line - Green Paradox effect).
21. 1
2
3
4
2010
2060
2110
2160
2210
2260
2310
1 / $
Social Cost of Carbon / Output
SCC/GDP is not flat, but hump shaped
Golosov et al (2014)
The carbon tax has to work
much harder if there is no
renewable subsidy in place
(red versus green).
The simple formula for
the carbon of Golosov et
al (2014) under-estimates
optimal carbon tax.
22. Robustness
5 different carbon cycles used by climate scientists and by FUND, PAGE and DICE: SCC not very robust but renewable subsidies are fairly robust.
SCC is higher and climate policy more aggressive with more fossil fuel left unburned if climate sensitivity is higher, impatience is less, technical progress and population growth are more rapid, and factor substitution is easier.
But climate policy less aggressive if there is lag between warming up and higher carbon concentration and if climate damages are additive instead of multiplicative.
SCC and carbon tax more upfront if there is less inequality aversion.
23. Remarks
Endogenous total factor and energy productivities allows for further substitution possibilities between energy and the (K,L)-aggregate in the longer run (see estimates of Hassler et al. (2011)). This justifies a more ambitious climate policy.
US Interagency Working Group (2010) recommends SCC of 80$/tC rising to 165$/tC in 2050 based on discount rate of 3% per year. A discount rate of 2.5% would give 129 and 238$/tC in line with our estimates.
Acemoglu et al. (2012) and Mattauch et al. (2013) argue for an aggressive subsidy to kick-start green innovation; Nordhaus and Stern Review argue for a rising carbon tax. We argue for a combination of these policies.
24. DEALING WITH CLIMATE CATASTROPHES
Real possibility that a discontinuous change in damages or in carbon cycle will take place. This change can be abrupt as with shifts in monsoonal systems, but loss of ice sheets have slow onsets and can take thousands of years to have its full effect (Greenland 7m and Western Antarctica 3m, say) and may already be occurring.
Shifts can be regional with local forcing agents like aerosols as with monsoons or more global with global forcing agent CO2 or CH4.
9 big catastrophes are waiting to happen, not all at same time.
Collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation is fairly imminent and might occur at relatively low levels of global warming. This affects regions differently, but might capture this with negative TFP shock.
25. Possible Tipping Points
Duration before effect is fully realized (in years)
Additional Warming by 2100
0.5-1.5 C
1.5- 3.0C
3-5 C
Reorganization of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation
about 100
0-18%
6-39%
18- 67%
Greenland Ice Sheet collapse
at least 300
8-39%
33- 73%
67- 96%
West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse
at least 300
5-41%
10- 63%
33- 88%
Dieback of Amazon rainforest
about 50
2-46%
14- 84%
41- 94%
Strengthening of El Niño-Southern Oscillation
about 100
1-13%
6-32%
19- 49%
Dieback of boreal forests
about 50
13-43%
20- 81%
34- 91%
Shift in Indian Summer Monsoon
about 1
Not formally assessed
Release of methane from melting permafrost
Less than 100
Not formally assessed.
Probabilities of Various Tipping Points from Expert Elicitation
26. Non-marginal climate policies
Estimated SCC is quite low with normal discount rate. But catastrophe induces higher SCC as hazard of catastrophe rises with temperature.
Curb risk of catastrophe SCC and carbon taxes.
Be better prepared social benefit of capital (SBC) and thus rationale for precautionary capital accumulation.
Convexity of hazard function matters for SCC.
Opposing effects of more intergenerational inequality aversion and thus more risk aversion on SCC and SBC: i.e., on carbon taxes and capital subsidy.
27. Final remarks
Usual estimates of the SCC are low unless a very low time impatience, say 0.1%, is used as in the Stern Review.
Taking account of small risks of climate disasters leads to bigger SCC even with usual discount rates.
Need more research on both estimates of current risks of catastrophe and how these risks increase with temperature.
Catastrophic changes in system dynamics unleashing positive feedback are much more dangerous than total factor productivity or capital stock calamities .
Catastrophe provides a much better policy narrative.
29. JOINT OECD/NBER CONFERENCE
PARIS, 25-26/9/2014
RICK VAN DER PLOEG
UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD
BASED ON “ABANDONING FOSSIL FUEL: HOW MUCH AND HOW FAST?” WITH ARMON REZAI
AND “CLIMATE TIPPING AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: PRECAUTIONARY SAVING AND THE SOCIAL COST OF CARBON” WITH AART DE ZEEUW
The Future of Productivity: Sustainability Issues
30. Global warming damages: what is left?
Nordhaus’ RICE (2007):
Golosov et al. (2013):
Ackerman & Stanton (2012):
We take the last one, since it captures relatively high
damages at high temperatures and is more realistic.
2 2
1 1
( ) .
1 0.00284 1 ( /18.8)
Z T
T T
5 ( ) exp 2.379 Z Et 10 (2.13Et 581).
2 6.76
1
( ) .
1 ( / 20.2) ( / 6.08)
Z T
T T
31. Carbon stocks
No modelling of carbon in lower and upper part of oceans here.
No sudden release of methane from the permafrost or other climatic catastrophes here.
Initial stock of carbon in atmosphere is 802 GtC or 377 ppmv CO2.
It has recently gone over 400 ppmv CO2.
Initial stock of 4000 GtC of fossil fuel reserves. The challenge is to lock a large part up in the crust of the earth.
Initial stock of physical capital is 200 trillion $
32. Transition times and carbon budget
Only fossil fuel
Simultaneous use
Renewable Only
Carbon used
Social optimum
2010-2020
2030-2040
2050 –
400 GtC
Carbon tax only
2010-2050
N.A.
2060 –
730 GtC
Renewable subsidy only
2010-2050
2060-2080
2090 –
1250 GtC
No policy
2010-2110
N.A.
2120 –
2510 GtC
34. Robustness: 5 Climate Cycles
There exists large difference between estimates of the social cost of carbon.
Many models… even more modelers.
Systematic comparison of prominent climate cycles necessary to understand importance of economics and science for policy prescriptions
Comparison of:
Oxford cycle (Allen et al., 2013)
FUND (Anthoff and Tol, 2009)
DICE (Nordhaus, 2014)
GL (Gerlagh and Liski, 2014)
GHKT ( Golosov et al., 2014)
35. Robustness – Temperature
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2010
2060
2110
2160
2210
2260
2310
2360
2410
°C above pre-industrial
GHKT
GL
Oxford
DICE
FUND
36. Interpretation
Oxford model closest to geo-sciences. Best approximation of diffusive and advective forces governing carbon and temperature cycles between atmospheric and oceanic layers.
Lowest Transient Climate Response (TCR), upward and downward.
The climate cycle of FUND and GL exhibits higher TCR but also faster recovery.
DICE appears very sensitive (highest TCR) and slow recovery.
GHKT lacks temperature lag and recovers extremely fast.
These temperature responses mirror the carbon tax (SCC)…
37. Little Robustness – Social Cost of Carbon
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2010
2030
2050
2070
2090
2110
2130
2150
2170
2190
$ / tC
GHKT
GL
Oxford
DICE
FUND
39. Social Cost of Carbon - Sensitivity
0
400
800
1200
1600
2010
2060
2110
2160
2210
2260
2310
$ / t C
Baseline
IES = ∞
K(0) = 100
ρ = 0
ω = 6
ξ = 0
A(∞) = 5
CES = 0.5
Lag Temp.
L(∞) = 10.6
40. Interpretation
SCC is higher and climate policy is more aggressive requiring a higher carbon tax and renewable subsidy, leaving more fossil fuel unburned and thus using less fossil fuel if:
the equilibrium climate sensitivity is higher (6 not 3),
the discount rate is lower (0 not 0.96%/year),
technological progress is more rapid (A( ) = 5 not 3),
elasticity of factor substitution is higher (o.5 not 0),
population explosion is more substantial (L() = 10.6 not 8.6 billion).
But climate policy less aggressive if:
there is a lag between warming up and higher carbon concentration,
intergenerational inequality aversion is weaker,
global warming damages are additive ( = 0), not multiplicative ( = 1).
SCC and carbon tax more upfront if EIS = and IIA = 0.
Climate policy not much affected if:
the initial capital stock K0 is half the size (100 not 200 trillion $).
41. Climate catastrophe and Mr Bean
In ‘doomsday’ scenario with complete disaster, the discount rate is increased so frantic consumption and less investment. Mr Bean!
With no ‘doomsday’ the world goes on after disaster hits. Then precaution is needed. Since consumption will fall after disaster, SBC > 0 and if this is not internalized a capital subsidy is required. Hence, now the discount rate is reduced.
The SBC is bigger if the hazard and size of the disaster are bigger.
And if CRIIA bigger.
1/ ()10. BACHEC
42. SBC and SCC
Social benefit of capital or SBC:
Social cost of carbon or SCC (using utility discount
rate or market interest rate:
1/
'( )
( ) 1 ( ) 1 0.
'( )
A B
B A
U C C
H E H P
U C C
( ), ( ) ( ),
' ( ) ( ') ( '), ( ') ( ') '
' ( )
( ') '
( ) exp
' ( ) ( ), ( ) ( ), exp / ' ( ) .
B A
s
B t
s
t
t
B A B
t
V K s E s V K s
H E s r s K s E s H E s ds
U C s
H E s ds
t ds
H P s V K s E s V K s ds U C t
43. Calibration of linear and quartic hazard functions
H(P) = 2.926 x 10-5 x P & H(P) = 2.33 x 10-15 x P4
Expected time for hit at initial P is 42 years for linear and 1000 years for quartic hazard function
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.09
820
1020
1220
1420
1620
1820
2020
2220
Calibrated hazard rate
Atmospheric carbon stock (GtC)
H(2324 GtC=6 degrees Celsius) =0.068
linear h
Exog h (linear)
quartic h
Exog h (quartic)
44. No shock
After calamity
Before calamity
Exogenous h = 2.4%
Linear H(P)
Quartic H(P)
Capital stock, K (T US $)
356
202
486
535
346
Fossil fuel use (GtC)
10.1
5.7
11.1
8.9
5.5
Renewable use (TBTU)
11.3
6.4
12.5
12.7
10.8
World GDP (T US $)
75.9
43.1
83.9
85.1
72.3
Net output, Y (T US $)
52.8
30.0
53.8
52.4
49.9
Consumption, C (T US $)
52.8
30.0
53.8
53.6
52.0
Carbon stock, E (GtC)
1,679
954
1,857
1,482
911
Temperature, Temp
4.6
2.1
5.0
4.1
1.9
Precautionary return (%)
0.0
0.0
1.2
1.6
0.1
Carbon tax (US $/tC)
0.0
0.0
0.0
136
381
45. 38
48
58
68
78
88
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Global GDP (trillion 2010 US $)
h=0.024
linear h
naive
quartic h
no calamity
46. Gradual damages A(Temp) and the SCC
Before-disaster SCC has in general 3 components:
((') conventional Pigouvian social cost of carbon((') 'raising t()'()(),(),()'() '() ()(),,() '() ststHEsdstHEsdsAPttAEsFKsFssUCsedsUCtHEsVKsEsedsUCt he stakes' effect((') 'risk averting' effect(),()(),,(),0.'() '() stBAHEsdstVKsEsVKsEstTHPsedsUCt