Leaders from 196 countries will gather in Glasgow, Scotland, between the 1st and 12th of November this year for the great climate conference, COP 26. COP26 is a meeting to discuss climate change and how countries intend to fight it. COP26 will be the twenty-sixth meeting since the treaty entered into force in March 1994 with the aim of reducing the impact of human activity on the climate. Actions to limit climate change and its effects, such as sea level rise and extreme weather events, are expected to be negotiated. The meeting is seen as crucial for us to be able to exert some control over climate change. In Glasgow, global leaders will assess the results of the 2015 Paris Agreement, COP 21, which was a milestone in international climate negotiations. This agreement was the most important step so far taken by countries in an attempt to limit climate change.

1. 1
COP 26 AND THE FUTURE OF PLANET EARTH
Fernando Alcoforado*
Leaders from 196 countries will gather in Glasgow, Scotland, between the 1st and 12th
of November this year for the great climate conference, COP 26. COP26 is a meeting to
discuss climate change and how countries intend to fight it. COP26 will be the twenty-
sixth meeting since the treaty entered into force in March 1994 with the aim of reducing
the impact of human activity on the climate. Actions to limit climate change and its
effects, such as sea level rise and extreme weather events, are expected to be negotiated.
The meeting is seen as crucial for us to be able to exert some control over climate change.
In Glasgow, global leaders will assess the results of the 2015 Paris Agreement, COP 21,
which was a milestone in international climate negotiations. This agreement was the most
important step so far taken by countries in an attempt to limit climate change.
At COP 21, the nations agreed to try to keep the global average temperature rise "well
below" 2 °C and try to limit it to 1.5 °C from pre-industrial standards. So far, the
temperature has risen 1.2 °C. At COP 21 in Paris, all signatories agreed to:
• Reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
• Expand the production of renewable energy;
• Allocate billions of dollars to help poor countries deal with the impact of climate change.
It was also agreed at COP 21 that every five years there would be a review of the progress
achieved. The first analysis was supposed to take place at COP26 in 2020, but because of
the pandemic it had to be postponed to 2021.
The analysis of the Paris agreement (COP 21) reveals that two key aspects were not
considered: (1) the long-term objective of decarbonising the world economy by 2050 with
a cut of at least 70% of global emissions of gases. greenhouse effect until mid-21st
century; and 2) the temperature target is not accompanied by a roadmap stating how the
world intends to reach less than 2°C or 1.5°C, which weakens the pursuit of that target.
The Paris Agreement did not resolve the fundamental issues and the voluntary targets
indicated by each of the nations were not sufficient to guarantee that global warming will
be well below 2 degrees Celsius and 1.5 degrees Celsius by 2100. Furthermore, the
document is characterized by omission in not submitting proposals that contribute to the
construction of a sustainable development model on our planet, replacing the current
unsustainable model of capitalist development.
The unsustainability of the current capitalist development model is evident, since it has
been extremely destructive of living conditions on the planet. It is imperative to replace
the current dominant economic model throughout the world with one that takes into
account man integrated into the environment, with nature, that is, the model of sustainable
development. This was not considered at COP 21. To change this situation and put an end
to the constant climate change that threatens to destroy our planet and compromise the
future of humanity, it is necessary to promote a profound transformation of today's
society.
Another issue not addressed at COP 21 concerns the wars that are proliferating around
the world and are, in large part, responsible for the environmental deterioration of the
planet. Among the countless consequences of wars are the devastating effects on the
environment. The bombing of military targets and of civilian populations, the intense

2. 2
movement of military vehicles and troops on the battlefields, the great concentration of
combat flights, the missiles launched on cities and the destruction of military and
industrial structures during all these conflicts also provoke the emission of metals and
other substances that contaminate the soil, water and air. In addition to environmental
contamination, it is also necessary to consider the modification of natural landscapes and
the long-term loss of biodiversity, whether due to the presence of land mines or chemical
agents dispersed in the environment. This was also not considered at COP 21.
Finally, it is important to emphasize that the Paris Agreement also did not consider the
need to build a global governance system on planet Earth capable of making international
relations based on a planetary social contract that is capable of preventing change global
catastrophic climate change and the proliferation of wars in the world and ensure
compliance with the Paris Agreement. COP 26 will have to correct the failures of COP
21, without which we will hardly be able to avoid the catastrophic changes in the climate
of planet Earth in the 21st century.
It is important to note that humanity is faced with a temporal boundary that is not 2100,
but much earlier, 2030! This date is not arbitrary. In 2030, we will live on a planet that
will have about 9 billion inhabitants, two-thirds of them living on an Earth saturated with
pollution and waste already affected by a sensitive high in temperatures. In 2030, we will
be entering a phase of shortage in relation to oil and of strong tension with other fossil
fuels, in a context of depletion of natural resources and impoverishment of arable land.
The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, which was 280 ppm (particles per
million) in volume at the beginning of the industrial era, could reach values between 540
and 970 ppm in the 21st century. This increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide is
responsible for 70% of the ongoing global warming. The world is facing a challenge
which is not to allow global warming in the 21st century to exceed two degrees
centigrade, without which it will have to bear the catastrophic consequences resulting
from climate change.
To prevent global warming from exceeding 2°C, a radical decarbonization of the world
economy will be needed. This is a difficult task, but still possible. In this sense, the world
needs to limit all carbon dioxide (CO) emissions to one trillion tons. In order to achieve
this goal, every country in the world will have to make a huge effort to drastically reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. This objective will only be achieved if COP 26 adopts policies
that contribute to: 1) reform the energy and transport sectors; 2) promote the use of
renewable energy sources; 3) limit greenhouse gas emissions; and, 4) protect forests and
other carbon sinks. Considering the fact that the main responsible for greenhouse gas
emissions in the world are: 1) the generation of electricity from thermoelectric plants
using fossil fuels with 22% of greenhouse gas emissions; 2) deforestation with 18%; 3)
agriculture and livestock with 14%; 4) industry with 14%; 5) cars and planes with 13%;
6) residential and commercial use of fuels with 11%; 7) garbage decomposition with 4%;
and, 8) the refineries with 4%, the effort of the international community must be
concentrated on the adoption of measures that contribute to the elimination or reduction
of the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in these sectors.
For example, thermoelectric power plants that use fossil fuels must be replaced by
renewable energy sources (solar, wind and biomass) and, ultimately, by nuclear plants
and deforestation must be fought with strict inspection of forest areas and with
punishment example of deforesters. The replacement of diesel oil used in agriculture with
biodiesel should be encouraged, the reduction of the size of the cattle population
responsible for emitting methane into the atmosphere, the replacement of fuel oil used by

3. 3
industry by less polluting natural gas, the use of ethanol by automobiles to replace
gasoline and the manufacture of electric cars to replace vehicles powered by fossil fuels.
The replacement of LPG used in homes and commerce by less polluting natural gas
should be promoted. The emission of greenhouse gases resulting from the decomposition
of garbage can be avoided with the use of methane produced in landfills in the generation
of electricity, as well as in the production of fertilizer. At the refineries, there should be
an effort to reduce the production of oil products in parallel with the adoption of measures
aimed at reducing the consumption of oil products. Refineries should be fundamentally
focused on the production of petroleum products for nobler or less polluting use.
Therefore, to eliminate or reduce greenhouse gas emissions and prevent catastrophic
climate change on our planet, it is urgent to reduce oil consumption by adopting policies
aimed at implementing programs that contribute to its replacement by other energy
resources. In this sense, it is necessary to: 1) generate electricity using renewable energy
sources (solar, wind and biomass); 2) replacement of gasoline by ethanol and diesel oil
by biodiesel in the transport sector; 3) replacement of fuel oil by natural gas and biomass
in industry; 4) replacement of diesel oil by biomass and natural gas in the energy sector;
and, 5) replacement of LPG by natural gas in the residential and service sector.
Additionally, it is essential to adopt energy policies aimed at implementing programs that
contribute to reducing oil consumption through energy saving actions. Energy saving
policies would consist of: 1) producing steam and electricity in industry using
cogeneration systems; 2) encourage car and truck manufacturers to increase the efficiency
of motor vehicles to reduce fuel consumption; 3) expand rail and waterway systems to
transport cargo to replace the use of trucks; 4) expand the public transport system,
especially high-capacity mass transport such as the subway or tram, to reduce the use of
cars in cities; 5) restrict the use of automobiles in centers and other areas of cities; 6)
encourage the manufacture of more efficient machines and equipment to save energy and
electric vehicles; and, 7) use petroleum derivatives mainly for non-energy purposes, as
an industrial raw material.
All of the measures described above should be taken at COP 26 to avoid catastrophic
global climate change. They are justified because, globally, the average temperature of
the surface of the seas has been the highest in history, 0.57°C above the 20th century
average, while that of the Earth's surface has exceeded this same average by 1°C. The
Earth's polar regions are places where climate change is having visible and significant
impacts. Arctic sea ice has declined dramatically in recent years. Antarctica's ice shelves
are crumbling and breaking apart. Antarctica is the largest frozen mass with 90% of the
Earth's ice. Most of the ice lies in East Antarctica which is higher, colder and less likely
to melt. In West Antarctica, some of the ice is in depressions vulnerable to melting. Data
from the European Space Agency indicate that the Antarctic continent released 160
billion metric tons of ice per year from 2010 to 2013. If all this continues to evolve, the
ocean level is expected to rise significantly submerging various regions of the planet.
In addition to the melting of the poles, the change in the Earth's climate due to global
warming is contributing to the occurrence of floods in cities that are repeated in an
increasingly catastrophic way in their effects. Recently, floods have occurred that expose
the vulnerability of cities in Europe and China to the most extreme weather. In order to
face extreme weather events in cities, it is necessary to carry out flood control. Flood
control refers to all methods used to reduce or prevent the harmful effects of the action of
water by the construction of dikes, dams, retention basins or detention. Engineering works
must be carried out to prevent and mitigate the effects of flooding in cities with the

4. 4
adoption of structural and non-structural measures. Structural measures correspond to
engineering works that can be implemented with a view to preventing and/or correcting
problems arising from flooding. Non-structural measures are those that seek to prevent
and/or reduce the damage and consequences of floods, not through engineering work, but
through the introduction of standards, regulations and programs that aim, for example, to
discipline the use and occupation of land, implementation of warning and awareness
systems for the population.
If all the measures proposed here are considered by COP 26 and put into practice around
the world, the future of planet Earth will not be compromised by catastrophic global
climate change.
* Fernando Alcoforado, 81, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System,
member of the Bahia Academy of Education, engineer and doctor in Territorial Planning and Regional
Development by the University of Barcelona, university professor and consultant in the areas of
strategic planning, business planning, regional planning and planning of energy systems, is author of the
books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem
Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os
condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de
Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora
Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos
na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica,
Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate
ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores
Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no
Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba,
2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua
convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o
mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019) and A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência
(Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021) .