Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slides to Singapore universities and business schools 2012

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO
Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth

SOURCE
Michael P. Totten,
Senior Advisor, CI Singapore
Presentation at
Asia Research Institute, NUS
February 09, 2012

Avoiding the Middle-Income Trap

Asia Will Account for 70% of World’s
Added Capital Stock between 2030-2050

Engines of the Asian Century are the Asia-7 economies

Asia’s march to prosperity will
be led by 7 economies, 2
already developed and 6 fast
growing middle income
converging economies.
Between 2010 and 2050, these
7 economies would account for
nearly 90% of total GDP growth
in Asia more than half of global
GDP growth.

Asia will account for 55% of global output in 2050

Asia’s urban population will double by 2050

The world’s current youth cohort — 1.2 billion young
people ages 15 to 25 — is the largest in human history

This “youth bulge” wraps itself around the center of the globe,
with nearly 90 % of today’s young people growing up in developing
countries where barriers to opportunity remain high.

Outcome fraught with multiple risks & challenges
Almost all countries face the overarching challenge of governance
and institutional capacity.
Large and increasing inequities within countries could undermine
social cohesion and political stability.
Individual countries risk falling into Middle Income Trap due to a
host of domestic economic, social and political challenges.
Rising disparities across countries and sub-regions could destabilize
the region and halt its growth momentum.
Intense competition for finite natural resources (energy, water and
fertile land) unleashed by this growth, as the newly affluent
Asians aspire to higher standards of living.
Climate Destabilization with increased natural disaster), as well as
associated water shortages, could threaten agricultural
production, coastal populations and major urban areas.

Projection Asia Energy Supply & Demand

Asia will lead global energy demand

And energy-related
GT
CO2 emissions

Get used to riding
Perfect Storms

Your Future – Business as Usual

Riding perfect storms for people, profit & planet

Why success always starts with failure

Riding the Perfect Storm meets Only the Paranoid Survive

Unprecedented
Challenges of
Historical & Global
Magnitude

Planetary Boundaries TODAY
Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K.
Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe
operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Planetary Boundaries 2150
Exceeding the Safe Operating Space for Humanity
CLIMATE
CHANGE

Rockström, J., W. Steffen, K. Noone, Å. Persson, F. S. Chapin, III, E. Lambin, T. M. Lenton, M. Scheffer, C. Folke, H. Schellnhuber, B. Nykvist, C. A. De Wit, T. Hughes, S. van der Leeuw, H. Rodhe, S. Sörlin, P. K.
Snyder, R. Costanza, U. Svedin, M. Falkenmark, L. Karlberg, R. W. Corell, V. J. Fabry, J. Hansen, B. Walker, D. Liverman, K. Richardson, P. Crutzen, and J. Foley. 2009. Planetary boundaries:exploring the safe
operating space for humanity. Ecology and Society 14(2): 32. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol14/iss2/art32/

Species extinction by humans
1000x natural background rate

extinction
Species

Recommendations:
Natural capital and poverty reduction
Indonesia India Brazil
Ecosystem services 99 million 352 million 20 million
dependency
21% 10%
16%
Ecosystem services as a
90%
% of classical GDP
79% 84%

47% 11%
25%
Ecosystem services as a 53%
% of ―GDP of the Poor‖
75%
89%

Ecosystem services
Source: Gundimeda and Sukhdev, D1 TEEB
09.02.2012 26

US$ 6.6 trillion
Estimated annual environmental costs from global
human activity equating to 11% of global GDP in 2008

US$ 2.2 trillion
Cost of environmental damage caused by the world’s
3,000 largest publicly-listed companies in 2008.

>50%
The proportion of company earnings that could be at risk
from environmental costs in an equity portfolio weighted
according to the MSCI All Country World Index.

Universal Ownership: Why environmental externalities matter to institutional investors, Trucost Plc, commissioned by UN-backed Principles for Responsible
Investment (PRI) and UNEP Finance Initiative, 2011, www.trucost.com

Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption
becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

CLOSING THE LOOP– Reducing Use of Virgin Resources, Increasing
Reuse of Waste Nutrients, Green Chemistry, Biomimicry

E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

55 million years since oceans as acidic –
business-as-usual emissions growth
threaten collapse of marine life food web

Acidifying
Oceans
Global Circulation Models (GCM)

Bernie et al. 2010. Influence of mitigation policy on ocean acidification, GRL

More frequent, severe, and prolonged droughts

More frequent, severe, and prolonged wildfires

More frequent, severe, and prolonged floods

Multiple Cascading Social-Ecological Crises

Carl Folke, A ° sa Jansson, Johan Rockstro¨m, Per Olsson, Stephen R. Carpenter, F. Stuart Chapin III, Anne-Sophie Cre´pin, Gretchen Daily, Kjell Danell, Jonas Ebbesson, Thomas Elmqvist, Victor
Galaz, Fredrik Moberg, Ma°ns Nilsson, Henrik O¨ sterblom, Elinor Ostrom, A ° sa Persson, Garry Peterson, Stephen Polasky, Will Steffen, Brian Walker, Frances Westley, Reconnecting to the
Biosphere, AMBIO (2011) 40:719–738, DOI 10.1007/s13280-011-0184-y, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences

A Decade of Immense Financial Loss,
Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year

1950 2005

www.armsflow.org/

Unending
Resource
Wars &
Conflicts

MMN, Muller, Mendelsohn and Nordhaus, Environmental Accounting for Pollution in the USA, American EconomicsReview, 2011; Epstein et al, New
York Academy of Sciences, 2010

LINFEN, CHINA
the most polluted city on
earth. Where, if one puts
laundry out to dry, it will
turn black before finishing
drying. Spending one day
in Linfen is equivalent to
smoking 3 packs of
cigarettes

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

Past planetary mass extinctions

Catastrophes
triggered by high CO2 >550ppm
Where we will be by 2100 900ppm

Climate
Parts per Million CO2

TODAY: 387PPM

Top 15 nation populations
exposed to sea level rise today & 2070

Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (pop)

Ranked in terms of POPULATION exposed to coastal flooding in the
2070s (including both climate change and socioeconomic change)
and showing present-day exposure

Top 20 Cities exposed sea level rise (assets)

Ranked in terms of ASSETS exposed to coastal flooding in the 2070s
(including both climate change and socioeconomic change) and
showing present-day exposure

MIT Temperature Study
10° ←>0% 2009 MIT Study:
• Danger 95% chance that “Business-
as-usual” temperature
increase will exceed 3.5ºC in
2095; and a 50% chance
temperature will exceed 5ºC!

Negative Tipping Points

Source: Timothy M. Lenton , Hermann Held , Elmar Kriegler , Jim W. Hall , Wolfgang Lucht,
Stefan Rahmstorf and Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, 2007. Tipping elements in the Earth's
climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, www.pnas.org/.

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would be determining
the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with
the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities,
and significant costs involved in countering
terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or
neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly
harboring weapons of mass destruction
Martin Weitzman

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change
environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends
approximately 3% [~$400 billion in 2010] of national income on the cost
of a clean environment."
MARTIN WEITZMAN. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL
Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Social Cost of Carbon

Frank Ackerman & Elizabeth Stanton, Climate Risks and Carbon Prices: Revising the Social Cost
of Carbon, 2011, Stockholm Environment Institute & Tufts Univ., www.e3network.org

Target CO2:

< 350 ppm
To preserve creation, the planet on
which civilization developed

James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

<350 ppm is Possible, But…
Essential Requirements
1. Quick Coal Phase-Out Necessary
All coal emissions halted in 20 years
2. No Unconventional Fossil Fuels
Tar sands, Oil shale, Methane hydrates
3. Don’t Pursue Last Drops of Oil
Polar regions, Deep ocean, Pristine land
James Hansen, Human-Made Climate Change: A Moral, Political and Legal Issue, Blue Planet Prize Lecture, October 2010, www.columbia.edu/~jeh1

Where the world needs to go:
energy-related CO2 emissions per capita

>$/GDP/cap

Source: WDR, adapted from NRC (National Research Council). 2008. The National Academies Summit on America’s Energy Future: Summary of a Meeting.
Washington, DC: National Academies Press.based on data from World Bank 2008. World Development Indicators 2008.

The path towards sustainable consumption:
Responding to increasing demand without inflating ecological footprints

SwitchAsia, Mainstreaming Sustainable Consumption in Asia, Consumer Book No. 3, citing WWF 2006,

Can WE
Avert Multiple Catastrophes,
Avoid Irreversible Consequences,
and Make the Shift to
Healthy, Sustainable Economies?

GAIN Science, Technology, Engineering

GENETICS AUTOROBOTICS

INFORMATICS NANOTECH

CLIMATE in 4
“Bumper Stickers”
Your grandchildren’s
lives are important

We need to buy
insurance for the planet

Climate damages are too
valuable to have prices

Some costs are better
than others

Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?

Your grandchildren’s
lives are important
Using the right Discount Rate
Climate Change is a long-term problem over many centuries, with
a non-zero probability of catastrophic , irreversible events and
credible worst cases involving the end of much of human and
other life on the planet.
Discount rates based on market interest rates ,or rate of return on
financial investments, are more appropriate for shorter term
investments with an average pattern of market risks.

Investments in climate protection, however, bear a closer
resemblance to insurance, because it is a risk-reducing investment.


Climate damages are too
valuable to have prices

Among the most important impacts of unchecked climate change
are increased losses of human lives. Many cost-benefit analyses
assign an income-based value of a life.
But any price for lives, high or low, creates the misleading
impression that lives can be traded for other things of comparable
value. A policy that kills 100 people now in order to save 300 other
lives 10 years from now is not equally successful: there is no way to
compensate the 100 people who paid the initial cost.

As Kant put it centuries ago, some things have a price, or relative
worth, while other things have a dignity, or inner worth.


Some costs are better
than others

While the benefits of climate protection involve the priceless values
of human life, nature, and the future, the costs consist of producing
and buying goods and services, i.e., things that have prices.
In the SHORT run, economic theories of market equilibrium often
deny existence of costless or negative-cost opportunities for
emissions reductions;
In the MEDIUM term, the same theories overlook the employment
and other benefits that result from climate policies;
In the LONG term, the most important effect is the pace of
innovation in energy technologies, another subject on which
conventional economics has little to offer.

We need to buy
insurance for the planet
The probability of a residential fire is less than half a
percent, yet mortgages require fire insurance.
The worst climate catastrophe is inescapably unknowable – but
current knowledge indicates the 99th percentile of climate sensitivity
parameters could be 10°C or higher.
“such high temperatures have not been seen for hundreds of
millions of years…it would effectively destroy planet Earth as we
know it. At a minimum this would trigger mass species
extinctions and biosphere ecosystem disintegration matching or
exceeding the immense planetary die-offs associated with a
handful of such previous geoclimate mega-catastrophes in Earth’s
history.”
Frank Ackerman, Can We Afford the Future?, citing Martin Weitzman

Insurance is the response to the desire
to avoid or control worse-case scenarios

Probability of house burning
down? Less than 1%
YET
>80% homeowners buy
hazard insurance

Probability of catastrophic
climate disasters? Over 50%
YET
>Half of USA essentially says
cannot afford climate insurance

While non-linear complex
adaptive systems pervade
existence, humans have a
strong propensity to think
and act as if life is linear,
uncertainty is controllable,
the future free of surprises,
and planning is predictable
and compartmentalized
into silos.

Normal distributions are
assumed, fat-tail futures
are ignored.

Examples of uncertainties identified in each of 3
knowledge relationships of knowledge
Unpredictability Incomplete knowledge Multiple knowledge frames

Natural system

Technical system

Social system

Brugnach, M., A. Dewulf, C. Pahl-Wostl, and T. Taillieu. 2008. Toward a relational concept of uncertainty: about knowing too little, knowing too
differently, and accepting not to know. Ecology and Society 13(2): 30. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol13/iss2/art30/

David Snowden, The Cynefin
framework, hwww.cognitive-
edge.com/

David Snowden, The Cynefin framework, hwww.cognitive-edge.com/

Governance / values
Rights / duties
Will networks
ETHICAL CAPITAL

Arts Finance
Sciences Competence
Knowledge networks Power networks

EPISTEMIC PRACTICAL
CAPITAL CAPITAL

Collective
Intelligence

CULTURAL BIOPHYSICAL
CAPITAL CAPITAL

Messages Equipment / technology
Medias Health / environment
Documentary networks Bodily networks

SOCIAL CAPITAL
Trust
Social roles
Personal networks
Pierre Levy, 2008, Beyond Semantic Web, Semantic Space, WKD Conference

Getting to Yes!! Riding the Perfect Storm with triple strength

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO

SOURCE

Summary Points
The Role of Finance Related to
Climate Security and Energy Security

“Low Hanging Fruit that keeps growing back” now offer a
multi-trillion dollar global pool of savings for companies
and institutions, with high ROIs, and myriad ancillary
values and co-benefits beyond climate/energy security

Electric, Gas & Water Utilities incented to deliver least-
cost, least-risk utility services to the point of use could be
source of tens of trillions of dollars of finance

Sourcing standards-based, multiple-benefits conservation
carbon offsets (CCB) is a key part of a cost & risk-
minimizing portfolio for addressing multiple securities
(climate, energy, economic, ecosystem services, conflicts)

Adopting Cost & Risk-Resilient Portfolio
Using portfolios of multiple-benefit actions to become
climate positive and revenue positive
Pervasive Information & Communication Technologies Key to Success
Ambitious, Continuous Protecting
Smart Green Power
Efficiency Gains Ecosystem Services

Promoting Triple S Portfolio
through Innovative Policies
1)SHRINKING - CONTINUOUS EFFICIENCY
Adopt decoupling+ and comprehensive IRP for
delivering utility services to the point of use at least
cost & risk, fully including end-use efficiency
improvements and onsite/distributed generation

2)SHIFTING – GREEN/SMART ENERGY
Select only verifiable „green power/fuels‟ that are
climate- & biodiversity-friendly, accelerate not slow
poverty reduction, & avoid adverse impacts

3)SOURCING - ECOSYSTEM OFFSETS
Add standards-based (CCB) carbon mitigation
options to portfolio that deliver triple benefits
(climate protection, biodiversity preservation, and
promotion of community sustainable development)

Noel Parry et al., California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Roles and responsibilities of actors in driving
sustainable consumption

WBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11

sustainable
consumption

WBCSD, A Path to Sustainable Consumption, 10-11

NASA, Report Workshop on Sustainable Urban Development, June 2009, http://event.arc.nasa.gov/main/home/reports/CP-2009-214603.pdf

via Emergent Collaboration Networks

Portfolio Part 1
SHRINKING
ecological footprints
(emissions, pollutants, waste, water, energy,
land, & capital) through aggressive,
ambitious and continuous efficiency gains

$1.2 billion savings over
5 years on energy, water
& chemical costs.
670% ROI
So the financial incentive is there, but as CEO
Pasquale Pistorio stressed, it’s not enough.
“If the chief executive is
not totally committed, it
won’t succeed,”

Pasquale Pistorio, CEO,
STMicro, 1987-2005

STMicro Carbon Positive
& Revenue Positive
SHRINK:
Reduce total emissions of CO2 due to our
energy consumption (tons of CO2 per
production unit) by 5% per year:
SHIFT:
Adopt whenever possible renewable
energy sources of wind, hydroelectric,
geothermic, photovoltaic, and thermal
solar.
Between 1998-2010 STMicro
SOURCE: planted 10 million trees in
Compensate the remaining direct CO2 reforestation programs in
emissions through reforestation or other Morocco, Australia, USA, France
carbon sequestration methods, to reach and Italy (9,000 ha total).
CO2 direct emissions neutrality by 2015. 179,000 tons of CO2 sequestered.

Source: STMicroelectronics, Sustainability Report 2010, Our culture of Sustainable Excellence in Practice,
www.st.com/internet/com/CORPORATE_RESOURCES/FINANCIAL/FINANCIAL_REPORT/ST_2010_sustainability_report.pdf

CO2 reductions at
negative cost

 Dow slashed energy intensity by ~40%
between 1990-2005.
 $9.4 billion savings between 1994-2010
 940% ROI

CO2 Abatement potential & cost for 2020

Breakdown by abatement type
• 9 Gt terrestrial carbon (forestry/agriculture)
• 6 Gt energy efficiency
• 4 Gt low-carbon energy supply
Zero net cost counting efficiency savings. Not counting the efficiency savings the
incremental cost of achieving a 450 ppm path is €55-80 billion per year between 2010–2020 for
developing countries and €40–50 billion for developed countries,
or about half the €215
billion per year currently spent subsidizing fossil fuels.

Rob Walton, Chairman, Walmart Mike Duke CEO, Walmart

Our License
to Grow is
threatened

2004 in the Bull’s eye

60,000 suppliers in 70 countries 100,000 product lines

Walmart’s World

1.7 million associates 138 million customers every week 8,500-plus stores
and clubs

70% Walmart Imports from China – 2008
25% from 14 other nations ( )

Most of Walmart’s impact & cost is imbedded in products

Water
Packaging

Indirect Impact =
92%
Marine
Agriculture

Factories

On Climate Change Action
“We are looking at innovative ways to reduce our GHG emissions. This used to
be controversial, but the science is in and it is overwhelming.“

“We believe every company
has a responsibility to reduce
GHG as quickly as it can.
Wal-Mart can help restore
balance to climate systems,
reduce greenhouse gases,
save money for our
customers, and reduce Lee Scott, CEO
dependence on oil.” 21st Century Leadership
Presentation Nov. 24, 2005


We are committed to aggressively investing $500 million annually in
technologies and innovation to do the following:

Reducing GHG at our existing store, club and
Distribution Center base around the world by
20 percent w/in 7 years.
Designing and opening prototype stores 25-30
% more efficient and 30% fewer GHG emissions
within the next 4 years.
Increasing fleet efficiency 25% in 3 years, and
doubling efficiency in the next 10 years.

Sharing all learning in technology with the world,
including our competitors (the more people who
can utilize this type of technology the larger the
market and more we can save our customers)

We are committed to the following:

Assisting in the design and
support of a green company
program in China, where
Walmart would show preference
to those suppliers and their
factories involved in such a
program.

Initiating a program in the U.S. Lee Scott, then-
that shows preference to president and CEO of
suppliers who set their own goals Walmart , speaking to
and aggressively reduce their 1000 Suppliers in China,
own emissions. October 2008


“You can’t just keep doing what works one time. Everything
around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.”
Sam Walton, founder

“These commitments are a first
step. To address climate change
we need to cut emissions
worldwide.
We know that these
commitments won’t even
maintain our fast growing
company’s overall emissions at
current levels.
There is more to do, we are
2010 Sustainability report 2011 Sustainability report committed to doing our part.”
Lee Scott, CEO
21st Century Leadership
Presentation Nov. 24, 2005

In 2006, Walmart set a goal of
reducing energy consumption
& CO2 emissions in the USA by
selling 100 million compact
fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs)
by the end of 2007.
Walmart exceeded that goal by
selling 137 million.
By the end of 2010, Walmart
had sold more than 460
million CFLs.

New Goal to Supersede CFLs with LEDs
LED
light-
emitting
“You can’t just keep doing what works one time. Everything
around you is changing. To succeed, stay out in front of change.”

diodes
Sam Walton, founder

LED lighting could displace 100s GWs

Augmenting natural daylighting with ultra-efficient LEDs offer capital and
operating savings, as well as dramatic reductions in Mercury emissions

Walmart’s Biggest Competitor
High Oil & Utility Prices

Aggressively pursuing regulatory and policy changes that will
create incentives for utilities to invest in energy efficiency and
low or no GHG sources of electricity, and to reduce barriers to
integrating these sources into the power grid.

Cost of new delivered electricity (US¢/kWh)

CCS

US current
average

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC ind bldg scale recycled end-use
cogen cogen ind cogen efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

1¢/kWh 93 kg

Coal-fired CO2
emissions displaced
per dollar spent on
electrical services 2¢ 47

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

US$26.3 trillion
global cumulative electric utility
infrastructure investment needed
between 2007 and 2030.

12.7 trillion kWh
Additional generation by 2030
Source: IEA, in 2007 US$; GEF & Global Smart Energy. 2008. The Electricity Economy,
http://www.globalenvironmentfund.com/data/uploads/The%20Electricity%20Economy.pdf

Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) & Decoupling sales from
revenues are key to harnessing Efficiency Power Plants
For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

USA minus CA & NY
Per Capital
Electricity 165 GW
Consumption Coal
Power
New York Plants
California
[EPPs]
Californian‟s have
net savings of
$1,000 per family

California 30 year proof of IRP value in promoting
lower cost efficiency over new power plants or
hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China
to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS

Now use 1/2 global power
30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI

Motor Market Transformation
Path to Multi- Trillion Dollar Savings

Demand Facts Efficiency Outcomes
Industrial electric motor systems 2 trillion kWh per year savings – equal to
consume 40% of electricity 1/4th all coal plants to be built through
worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China 2030 worldwide.
– over 7 trillion kWh per year.
$240 billion savings per decade.
Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings
of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh. $200 to $400 billion benefits per decade
in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and
NOx.
Support SEEEM
(Standards for Energy SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market
Efficiency of Electric transformation strategy to promote efficient
Motor Systems) industrial electric motor systems worldwide

More Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Need for Coal Mines & Power Plants
Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

Walmart is on the path to tripling
its truck fleet efficiency.
Over the past 2 years Walmart
replaced ~2/3rd of their fleet with
more efficient tractors.
Achieved 65% reduction in fuel per ton km over
past 5 years.
In 2010, Walmart delivered 57 million more
cases, while driving 79 million fewer km.
Avoiding ~40,000 t/CO2 -- equivalent to taking
7,600 U.S. cars off the road.
Source; Building the Next Generation Walmart…Responsibility,
2011 Global Responsibility report

2.7 km/l –
529 million liters
[6.4 mpg –
140 million gal]
Land required if
Wal-Mart Class 8
large truck fleet
Switched from
Fossil Diesel to

121,000 hectares
BioDiesel from
Oil Palm
Plantations

40,000 hectares
2.7 km/l – 529 million liters

When the truck fleet achieves triple fuel efficiency

5.5 km/l – 265 million liters

2004 2011 8 km/l – 176 million liters

Land- & Water-Conserving, Oil-Reducing,
Emission-Preventing and Money Saving
Cost Comparison Biodiesel vs Truck Efficiency

$70

$60

$50
per barrel cost

$40
$65
$30

$20
$15
$10

$-
biodiesel truck efficiency

HOW ENERGY EFFICIENT ARE YOUR BUILDINGs?
Typical Energy usage Commercial Building
Tropical Climate
(Cooling All Year Round)

Others
Equipment 4%
8%
Lift/Escalator
5%

Lighting Space Cooling
18% 60%

Ventilation
5%

Data is for buildings in hot and humid climate like Singapore, Jakarta, Kuala Lumpur, etc

ASHRAE--Chiller Plant Efficiency

New Technology High-efficiency Conventional Chiller Plants with
Older Chiller
All-Variable Speed Optimized Code Based Correctable Design or
Plants
Chiller Plants Chiller Plants Chiller Plants Operational Problems

EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR NEEDS IMPROVEMENT

kW/ton 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
C.O.P. (7.0) (5.9) (5.0) (4.4) (3.9) (3.5) (3.2) (2.9)
AVERAGE ANNUAL CHILLER PLANT EFFICIENCY IN KW/TON (C.O.P.)
(Input energy includes chillers, condenser pumps, tower fans and chilled water pumping)

Based on electrically driven centrifugal chiller plants in comfort conditioning applications with
42F (5.6C) nominal chilled water supply temperature and open cooling towers sized for 85F
(29.4C) maximum entering condenser water temperature and 20% excess capacity.
Local Climate adjustment for North American climates is +/- 0.05 kW/ton

0.59 typical Trane Guaranty

Source: LEE Eng Lock, Singapore

Typical Chiller Plant -- Needs Improvement
(1.2 kW per ton)


High Performance Chiller Plant (0.56 kW/t)


HOW? Bigger pipes, 45° angles, Smaller chillers


Financial Benefits
Before After

Cooling TonHr/Week 80,000 80,000

System kWH/Week 152,000 47,200

kWh/TonH 1.90 0.59

Energy Savings in % 68.95%
Energy Savings in kWH / Year 5,449,600
Energy Savings in $/Year @ $0.20/KWH $1,089,920
Water usage per year (M3) 0 34,682

Water Charge per year (New Water @ $1.0/M3) $34,682
Estimated Total $ Savings per Year $1,055,238

Annual Reduction in Carbon Emission per year (Tones) 2,724,800

ROI = 29%. Energy Savings over 15 years = S$15M

Daily System Report – August 2009
Real time monitoring with calibrated smart sensors


Simple Guide to retrofit success

1. Ask for 0.60 kW/RT or better for chiller plant.
2. Ask for performance guarantee backed by clear
financial penalties in event of performance shortfall.
3. Ask for accurate Measurement & Verification system
of at least +-5% accuracy in accordance to
international standards of ARI-550 & ASHRAE guides
14P & 22.
4. Ask for online internet access to monitor the plant
performance.
5. Ask for track record.


ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
IF Cooling Load in kW per ton:
Typical: ~1.2 kW/ton or 114% more
Best: ~0.56 kW/ton

Cost of overbuilding &
poor efficiency level
• Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton
• Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of
aircon space
• Average over-sizing is 2x
• Wasted capital stock = 0.025 x 1m
m2 x $4k = US$100 million
• Avg efficiency existing aircon 1.2
kW/t
• Excess aircon energy (1.2 – 0.56), &
cost: 0.025 x 1m m2 x 5000 hrs/a x
$0.20/kWh = US$17 million/yr

ILLUSTRATIVE EXAMPLE
Cooling Load in kW per ton?
Code: ~0.85 kW/ton or 50% more
Best: ~0.56 kW/ton

Cost of overbuilding &
Code efficiency level
• Aircon equipment ~$4k/ton
• Cooling demand ~ 0.025 ton/m2 of
air-conditioned space
• Above average oversizing is 1.5x
• Wasted capital stock = 0.025*50% x
1m m2 x $4k = US$50 million

• Code efficiency existing aircon 0.85
kW/t
• Excess aircon energy (0.85 – 0.56),
& cost: 0.0125 x 1mm2 x 5000 hrs/a
x $0.20/kWh= US$12.5 million/yr

Portfolio Part 2
SHIFTING
To green power and fuel options that are both
climate & biodiversity positive, and have the
smallest combined ecological impacts

Annual global energy consumption by humans

Oil SOLAR PHOTONS
Gas ACCRUED IN A MONTH
EXCEED THE EARTH’S
FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES
Coal

ANNUAL Wind
Uranium

Hydro

ANNUAL Solar Energy

Photosynthesis

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National
Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo.

Attributes of Green Energy Services
Dozen Desirable Criteria

1. Economically affordable including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?
2. Safe through the entire life cycle?
3. Clean through the entire lifespan?
4. Risk is low and manageable from financial and price volatility?
5. Resilient and flexible to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
6. Ecologically sustainable no adverse impacts on biodiversity?
7. Environmentally benign maintains air, water, soil quality?
8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?
9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures low recovery cost and lost time?
10. Endogenous learning capacity Intrinsic transformative innovation opportunities?
11. Robust experience curve for reducing negative
externalities & amplifying positive externalities scalable production possibilities?
12. Uninteresting target for malicious disruption off radar of terrorists or military planners?

Uninteresting military target
A Defensible Green Robust experience curves
Energy Criteria Scoring Endogenous learning capacity
Rebounds easily from failures
Promote Fails gracefully, not catastro
Environmentally benign
CHP + Ecologically sustainable
biowastes
Resilient & flexible
Secure
Clean
Safe
Economically Affordable

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowaste Geo- Nat Bio- Oil Coal Coal Coal to Tar Oil nuclear
power thermal gas fuels imports CCS no liquids sand shale
CCS

A power source delivered daily and locally everywhere
worldwide, continuously for billions of years, never
failing, never interrupted, never subject to the volatility
afflicting most energy and power sources used in driving
economic activity

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –
1336 Watts per m2 from the Photon Bit stream

SOLAR REFLECTORS
Over 4000 Walmart stores with
white roofs, and standard
practice since 1990
Reflects away 80% of solar heat

World of Solar Reflecting Cities
$2+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 59 Gt CO2 Reduction

100 m2

Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change
Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Solar-battery
Wind turbines
ground footprint
Wind-battery
turbine spacing

Cellulosic ethanol

Corn ethanol

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewable
resources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5,
2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Assuming a guaranteed price of 0.516 RMB (7.6 U.S. cents) per kWh electricity to
the grid over an agreed initial average period of 10 years, wind turbines could
accommodate all of the demand for electricity projected for 2030, about twice
current consumption.
Even electricity available at a concession price as low as 0.4 RMB per kilowatt-hour would
be sufficient to displace 23% of electricity generated from coal.
Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)

Michael B. McElroy, et al. Potential for Wind-Generated
Electricity in China, Science 325, 1378 (2009)

Myth 1:
PV use more energy to make than they
produce over their lifetime
For cells in production now the
energy payback is between 6
months and 5 years!

Myth 2:
We do not have Enough Raw Materials

• Si - 2nd most abundant element
in Earth’s crust
• The amorphous silicon cells
manufactured from one ton
of sand could produce as
much electricity as burning
500,000 tons of coal

Myth 3:
Solar Doesn’t Create Many Jobs
Jobs created with every
million dollars spent
on:
– oil and gas exploration:
1.5
– on coal mining: 4.4
– on producing solar
water heaters: 14
– on photovoltaic panels:
17

Myth 3:
Solar requires too much land area

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by
applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area—
on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and
in dual-uses. [ Also requires 93% less water than fossil fuels.]
Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new
land to make PV our primary energy source!

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90%
total US electricity from brownfields
90% of America’s current
electricity could be supplied with
PV systems built in the ―brown-
fields‖— the estimated 2+ million
hectares of abandoned industrial
sites that exist in our nation’s
cities.

Cleaning Up
Brownfield
Sites w/
PV solar

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

The Global market for solar cells,
Washington Post, December 16,
2011, Sources: Photon
International, Earth Policy
Institute, Wiley Rein.

• The price of solar panels fell steadily for 40 years.
• Since January 2008 German solar modules prices dropped from €3 to €1 per peak
watt (Wp). During that same time production capacity grew 50% per annum.
• China market share rose from 8% in 2008 to over 55% by end of 2010.
• Module prices have dropped to US$1.2–1.5/Wp (crystalline).

China Economics of Commercial BIPV
Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR)
& Payback Periods (PBP) for „Architectural‟ BIPV
(Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and
Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Material Economic
Beijing Shanghai
Replaced Measure
NPV ($) +$18,586 +$14,237
Polished BCR 2.33 2.14
Stone PBP (yrs) 1 1
NPV ($) +$15,373 +$11,024
BCR 1.89 1.70
Aluminum
PBP (yrs) 2 2
SunSlate Building-Integrated
Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

China EconomicsCommercial BIPV
Economics of of Commercial BIPV

Reference costs of facade-cladding materials
BIPV is so economically attractive because it
captures both energy savings and savings from
displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7:
Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights,
consume half of a commercial building
electricity.
Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time
lighting, eliminating massive amount of power
plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in
avoided costs.
Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the
U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan
pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as
well as accrue over $15 billion per year of
savings on energy bills.

120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China
Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all
personal motorized transportation in China.

$3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh –
twice as expensive as solar PV electricity

Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons
for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA

www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYvQmi0F9LA

Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide

The African market for off-grid lighting products is projected to achieve
40 to 50 % annual sales growth, with 5-6 million African households
owning quality portable lights (primarily solar) by 2015.
Lighting Africa contributed to this market acceleration: in 2010 alone,
the sales of solar portable lanterns that have passed Lighting Africa’s
quality tests grew by 70% in Africa.
This resulted in more than 672,000 people on the continent with
cleaner, safer, reliable lighting and improved energy access.

Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

Portfolio Part 3
SOURCING OFFSETS
remaining footprints by prevention of threatened
tropical forests (REDD+) and other intact ecosystems
(e.g., mangroves, peat lands, grass lands) through
standards-based conservation carbon offsets

Protecting Critical
Wilderness to Offset
Operation Footprints
In 2005, Wal-Mart adopted the
goal to permanently offset the
land footprint of all their USA
stores and distribution centers by
protecting critical wildlife habitat
in the USA.

Walmart’s $35 million donation
over 10 years enables purchasing
enough land to account for its
stores current land-use, as well as
the company’s development
throughout the 10-year period --
roughly 60,000 hectares.

Largest Corporate REDD Carbon Project to date

$4 million to protect the Tayna and
Kisimba-Ikobo Community Reserves in
eastern DRC and Alto Mayo conservation
area in Peru.
Will prevent more than 900,000 tons of
CO2 from being released into the
atmosphere.
Using Climate, Community & Biodiversity
Carbon Standards.

Need to Halt Deforestation & Ecosystem Destruction
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
Billion tons CO2 14 million hectares burned each
25 year emitting 5 to 8 billion tons
CO2 per year. More emissions
than world transport system of
20
cars, trucks, trains, planes, ships

15

10 GHG
levels
5

0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Outsourcing CO2 reductions to become Climate Positive
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
Billion tons CO2 5 to 8 billion tons CO2 per year
25 in mitigation services available in
poor nations, increasing their
revenues by billions of dollars
20
annually ; and saving better-off
nations billions of dollars.
15

10 GHG
levels
5

0
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Geological storage (CCS) vs U.S. fossil Electricity CO2
Ecological storage (REDD) mitigation cost annually
Carbon Mitigation Cost (2.4 GtCO2 in 2007)
$ per ton CO2
Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS)
$50
$45 ~$100 billion
$40 ~3 ¢ per kWh
$35
$30
$25 Reduced Emissions Deforestation
$20 & Degradation (REDD)
$15
$10
~$18 billion
$5
~0.5 ¢ per kWh
$- 0
CCS REDD
Source: Michael Totten, REDD is CCS NOW, December 2008

U.S. fossil Electricity in 2007 $7.50 per ton CO2
2.4 billion tons CO2 emissions 1/2 cent per kWh

$18 billion/yr REDD trade
Poverty reduction
Prevent Species loss

A A win-win-win
win-win-win
Tropical Deforestation 2007 outcome
outcome
13 million hectares burned
7 billion tons CO2 emissions

TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO PARTNERS

SOURCE

Amory Lovins, select publications 1976 to 2012

Convergences & Emergences

Vehicle-to-Grid

Connect 1 TW Smart Grid with ~3 TW Vehicle fleet

hwww.techonomy.com/#te10

www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_EKZvb7gc8
www.youtube.com/watch?v=lTKGP0O5f5Y&feature=related

Commercial building energy efficiency supply curve
by end use, 2050

Energy savings for integrative design cases
(new residential)

Zero Emissions Home and Electric Car

Shannon Smith, In Germany, house powers car, SmartPlanet, December 30, 2011, www.smartplanet.com/

Beddington Zero Energy Design, UK

Cradle-to-Cradle
McDonough
Flow House,
New Orleans

http://www.greenpacks.org/2009/07/16
/william-mcdonough-partners-complete-
the-cradle-to-cradle-flow-house/

Venlo, NL – First Cradle-to-Cradle region in the World
http://sustainablecities.dk/en/city-projects/cases/venlo-first-cradle-to-cradle-region-in-the-world

2050 installed capacity by case

Technology capital cost* projections, 2010-2050

*Renewable costs exclude tax credits & similar subsidies; nonrenewable costs implicitly include many complex subsidies.

U.S. wind & solar PV capital cost trends 1976-2010

Near-term cost reductions for ground-mounted PV System

Present value costs of the U.S. electricity system 2010-2060

Historic & projected CO2 emissions from the
U.S. electricity sector, 1990-2050

Manufacturer’s Suggested Retail Price

Lightweight autos needn’t cost more. The MY 2010 U.S. new-car fleet
shows little or no correlation between lighter weight and higher prices.

Traffic fatalities, vehicle weight changes, and vehicle size
based on 1999 U.S. fleet on the road

Crash-safety risk with lightweight materials in automotive
applications is only perceived, not supported by evidence. Lighter
autos are actually safer than heavier ones the same size.

Comparison of carbon fiber vs. steel manufacturing costs

Automotive manufacturing costs can be cut by 80% with carbon fiber-based autos vs. steel-
based ones due to greatly reduced tooling and simpler assembly and joining. However, such
cost savings are currently overshadowed with carbon fiber material prices ~$16/lb.

U.S. motor gasoline consumption with & without
policy change and accelerated retooling, 2010-2050

Cost reduction potential of powertrains

Cumulative volume-based learning curves
for battery packs and fuel cell systems

U.S. installed wind & solar power capacities
and projections, 1990-2050

Hourly operability in a high-penetration renewables scenario

Hourly operability on a microgrid

Variable renewable output (hourly)

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable Future by
2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

Jacobson, M. & M. Deluchi, A Plan for a Sustainable
Future by 2030, Scientific American, Nov 2009

Solar Fusion Waste as Earth Nutrients –
The Power in the Photon Bit stream

Earth receives more solar energy
every 90 minutes than humanity
consumes all year

Market share of different PV technologies
1999-2010

Innovative Solar Financing Options
Long-Term, Low-Cost Financing

Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters

GIS Mapping the Solar
Potential of Urban Rooftops

100% Total Global Energy Needs -- NO NEW LAND,
WATER, FUELS OR EMISSIONS – Achievable this Century
Germany's SUN-AREA Research Project Uses ArcGIS to calculate the possible solar yield per building for city of Osnabroeck.

Catalyzing solar smart poly-microgrids

Continuous algorithm measures incoming solar radiation, converts to usable energy
provided by solar photovoltaic (PV) power systems, calculates revenue stream based
on real-time dynamic power market price points, cross integrates data with
administrative and financial programs for installing and maintaining solar PV systems.

Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid design based on digital map algorithms continuously
calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of
urban solar panel locations based on multi-criteria targets.

Sierpinski ―Pyramid‖
Fractal Market Model

Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern that can be
reproducible at any magnification or reduction.

Self-limited plasmonic welding
of silver nanowire junctions

When two nanowires lay crisscrossed light will generate plasmon waves at
the place where the two nanowires meet, creating a hot spot. The beauty is
that the hot spots exist only when the nanowires touch, not after they have
fused. The welding stops itself. It's self-limiting. This ability to heat with
precision greatly increases the control, speed and energy efficiency of
nanoscale welding.
Erik C. Garnett, Wenshan Cai, Judy J. Cha, Fakhruddin Mahmood, Stephen T. Connor, M. Greyson Christoforo, Yi Cui, Michael D. McGehee &
Mark L. Brongersma, Self-limited plasmonic welding of silver nanowire junctions, Nature Materials, February 05, 2012

Nanoshell whispering galleries improve thin solar panels

Using spherical nanoshell structures achieved absorption comparable to micron-thick layers with 50-nm-
thick shells, reducing the film deposition time necessary to achieve strong absorption from hours to minutes.

Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering
gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012

Quantum-dot solar PV cells

Quantum dot solar cells use quantum dots as the photovoltaic material, as opposed
to bulk materials such as silicon, copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) or Cadmium
Telluride (CdTe). Quantum dots have bandgaps that are tunable across a wide range of
energy levels by changing the quantum dot size, in contrast to bulk materials where
the bandgap is fixed by the choice of material composition. This property makes
quantum dots attractive for multi-junction solar cells, where a variety of different
energy levels are used to extract more power from the solar spectrum.

Collodial-quantum-dot PVs using atomic-ligand passivation

16 of the inorganic CQD devices

Quantum dots are nanoscale semiconductors that capture light and convert it
into an energy source. The dots can be sprayed on to flexible surfaces,
including plastics. Enables production of solar cells less expensive and more
durable than the more widely-known silicon-based version.

Solar cell nanodomes and plasmonics

Titania within the solar cell is imprinted into a honeycomb pattern by the silicon
nanodomes like a waffle imprinted by the iron. A thin layer of batter is spread on a
transparent, electrically conductive base. This batter is mostly titania, a semi-porous metal
that is also transparent to light.
Next, they use their nano waffle iron to imprint the dimples into the batter. Then layer on
some butter – a light-sensitive dye – which oozes into the dimples and pores of the waffle.
Lastly, some syrup is added – a layer of silver, which hardens almost immediately.
When all those nanodimples fill up, the result is a pattern of nanodomes on the light-ward
side of the silver. The silver acts as a mirror, scattering unabsorbed light back into the dye
for another shot at collection, plus, the light interacts with the silver nanodomes to
produce plasmonic effects.

Nanoshell whispering galleries
Optical simulations of Silicon spherical nanoshells

Yan Yao, Jie Yao, Vijay Kris Narasimhan, Zhichao Ruan, Chong Xie, Shanhui Fan & Yi Cui, Broadband light management using low-Q whispering
gallery modes in spherical nanoshells, Nature Communications, 3, doi:10.1038/ncomms1664, Feb 7, 2012

Graphene

Graphene is an allotrope of carbon, whose
structure is one-atom-thick planar sheets of sp2-
bonded carbon atoms that are densely packed in
an atom-scale honeycomb crystal lattice.

Solar cell
nano cones
The n-type nanoncones are made of
zinc oxide and serve as the junction
framework and the electron
conductor.
The p-type matrix is made of
polycrystalline cadmium telluride
and serves as the primary photon
absorber medium and hole
conductor.

Key features of the solar material include its unique electric field distribution
that achieves efficient charge transport; the synthesis of nanocones using
inexpensive proprietary methods; and the minimization of defects and voids in
semiconductors.
Because of efficient charge transport, the new solar cell can tolerate defective
materials and reduce cost in fabricating next-generation solar cells.

Cerium Solar reactor (Haile caltech)
Nano pillar solar cell arrays

Solar roll 50 sq meters(Ascent)

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
Figures of Merit
Great Plains area
1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity
400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint
6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine
>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area
37,500 mi2

Still available for farming
and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector
40%

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Double
farm/ranch income with 30x less land area
Although agriculture controls about 70% of
Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to
8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the
greatest economic booms in American
history for Great Plains rural communities,
while also enabling one of world’s largest
restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South
Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains =
Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of
Rural Farm and Ranch Income
US Farm Revenues per hectare
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

non-wind farm Wind profits

windpower farm

$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm non-wind farm
govt. subsidy $0 $60
windpower royalty $200 $0
farm commodity revenues $50 $64
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Potential Synergisms
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon
and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2
mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

2) Re-introducing free-
ranging bison into these
prairie grasslands -- which
naturally co-evolved
together for millennia --
generating a potential
revenue stream from
marketing high-value
organic, free-range beef.

Also More Resilient to
Climate-triggered
Droughts

Grasslands of the World

Source: http://www.windows2universe.org/earth/images/grassland_map_big2_jpg_image.html

China will construct 5 GW of offshore wind
projects by 2015 and 30 GW by 2030.

China Qingdao 5 MW wind turbine Vesta 7 MW wind turbine

Hydrodams 7% GHG emissions

Tucuruí dam, Brazil

St. Louis VL, Kelly CA, Duchemin E, et al. 2000. Reservoir surfaces as sources of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere: a global estimate. BioScience
50: 766–75,

Net Emissions from Brazilian Reservoirs compared with
Combined Cycle Natural Gas

Emissions: Emissions:
Reservoir Generating km2/ Emissions
DAM Hydro CC Gas
Area Capacity Ratio
MW (MtCO2- (MtCO2-
(km2) (MW) Hydro/Gas
eq/yr) eq/yr)

Tucuruí 24330 4240 6 8.60 2.22 4

Curuá-
72 40 2 0.15 0.02 7.5
Una

Balbina 3150 250 13 6.91 0.12 58

Source: Patrick McCully, Tropical Hydropower is a Significant Source of Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Interim response to the International
Hydropower Association, International Rivers Network, June 2004

Koplow, Douglas, Nuclear Subsidies

Shifting Government R&D Focus and Funds
Billion $ 2008 constant
90 $85
2

80
Civilian Nuclear Power
70
(1948 – 2009)
60

vs. 50

40

Solar Photovoltaics 30

(1975-2009) 20

10 $4.2
1

0 1 2
PV NUCLEAR

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue
Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking
dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach
adulthood stunted for good.


4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust
physical strength to perform labor -- cost billions of
dollars in lost income to the poor


A new water disinfector for the
developing world’s poor
DESIGN CRITERIA
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for
disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1
ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1
m3)
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
• Reliable, Mature components
• Can treat unpressurized water
• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds
• Low maintenance: 4x per year
• No overdose risk
• Fail-safe
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries,
Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-
water%202008.pdf WaterHealth Intl device

WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs.
Other Treatment Options


WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of
pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and
Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per
person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.


WaterHealth International

Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of
our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of
operating and maintaining the equipment and facility.
Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus
creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities
for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water
to outlying areas.
And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user
fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.

Mobility Services & Acccess

Amount of space required to transport the same
number of passengers by car, bus or bicycle.
Muenster Planning Office, August 2001

Riding perfect storm - TRIPLE STRENGTH PORTFOLIO Healthy, Sustainable Economies for Asian Growth lectures and seminar slides to Singapore universities and business schools 2012

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