War Room: Yield Shock
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The document discusses rising government bond yields (yield shock) and the potential impacts. It provides scenarios for how markets and the economy may be affected depending on whether bond yields rise rapidly or slowly. The Federal Reserve has options to potentially counteract a rapid rise in yields including bond purchase programs or interest rate adjustments. Technology company valuations could see multiples compressed if bond yields jump significantly.
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The document discusses the possibility of the US Federal Reserve raising interest rates for the first time since 2006. It begins by reviewing the effects of past rate hike cycles on financial markets, noting that historically financials underperform while technology stocks outperform. It then presents three potential scenarios for how markets may react to an upcoming rate hike: 1) The "Good" scenario of the Fed delaying hikes due to weak economic data, providing an equity boost. 2) The "Bad" scenario of a "taper tantrum"-like market correction. 3) The "Ugly" scenario of the Fed intentionally popping an asset bubble by hiking rates.
Charting the Financial Crisis: A Narrative eBook
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Macroeconomics Policies
The document provides an overview of macroeconomic policies and concepts including:
1) It discusses the business cycle and macroeconomic equilibrium and how disturbances can cause instability.
2) Keynes argued that government intervention is necessary to address inherent instability in free markets. Fiscal and monetary policies can be used to stimulate aggregate demand.
3) Supply-side policies aim to shift aggregate supply curves by incentivizing production. Both demand and supply factors influence macroeconomic outcomes like growth, unemployment and inflation.
How strong a comeback for inflation?
Degroof Petercam Asset Management's chief economist and asset allocator look into whether the reflation trade is for real and inflation is back in the cards.
The Oliver Wyman Risk Journal Volume 5
The document discusses the growing threat of cyberattacks and why they could cause a global crisis. It notes that over 30 countries have implemented cybersecurity strategies in response. However, the threat is outpacing these initiatives as organizations become more dependent on digital technologies and data. The risks are particularly concerning for critical infrastructure industries like energy, banking, and manufacturing. Companies have significantly increased their cyber insurance coverage in response, with healthcare firms buying 178% more coverage and utilities 98% more on average since 2012. The document concludes that greater data dependence and potential impacts of breaches mean cyberattacks remain one of the top risks for causing a global crisis.
Fear in the Market
- The document discusses the recent volatility in global stock markets and the fear that has gripped investors. While there are valid economic concerns, fear has become contagious and may be overstating the risks.
- The US economy has held up better than expected so far in 2016, with steady job growth and consumer spending. However, tightening financial conditions have led to declines in stock valuations.
- Central banks are again trying to ease financial conditions through further monetary stimulus in order to support the economy and stabilize markets, though investor faith in their actions may be waning.
20100629
The document discusses the global financial crisis, its causes, consequences, and implications for future business education. It summarizes that the crisis originated from the US housing market boom and unregulated financial innovation involving subprime mortgages. This led to a crisis of confidence spreading from the US to other parts of the world. The consequences included severe economic downturns. Going forward, there is a need for reforms in financial regulations, credit ratings, and increased focus on ethics and social responsibility in business education.
Charting the Financial Crisis
The global financial crisis of 2007-2009 and subsequent Great Recession constituted the worst shocks to the United States economy in generations. Books have been and will be written about the housing bubble and bust, the financial panic that followed, the economic devastation that resulted, and the steps that various arms of the U.S. and foreign governments took to prevent the Great Depression 2.0. But the story can also be told graphically, as these charts aim to do.
What comes quickly into focus is that as the crisis intensified, so did the government’s response. Although the seeds of the harrowing events of 2007-2009 were sown over decades, and the U.S. government was initially slow to act, the combined efforts of the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and other agencies were ultimately forceful, flexible, and effective. Federal regulators greatly expanded their crisis management toolkit as the damage unfolded, moving from traditional and domestic measures to actions that were innovative and sometimes even international in reach. As panic spread, so too did their efforts broaden to quell it. In the end, the government was able to stabilize the system, re-start key financial markets, and limit the extent of the harm to the economy.
No collection of charts, even as extensive as this, can convey all the complexities and details of the crisis and the government’s interventions. But these figures capture the essential features of one of the worst episodes in American economic history and the ultimately successful, even if politically unpopular, government response.
Fed Shock Therapy - 26 May 2022 - War-Room Slides-Final.pptx
This document discusses the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes and their potential economic impacts. It notes that Fed Chair Powell and Bernanke admit there will be no soft landing. Several scenarios are presented: mild recession avoided with rate hikes pausing in September; housing market contraction leads to broader recession; or continued hikes induce a recession. Charts show declines across markets including a potential 30% Nasdaq drop. Retail sales data suggests high inflation is reducing middle class spending while wealthier consumers remain undeterred.
Inflation
The document discusses various topics related to inflation including:
1. Inflation is defined as a rise in general price levels reported as a rate of change which reduces the purchasing power of money.
2. Inflation can be caused by increases in the money supply, reductions in goods available, decreases in demand for money, and increases in demand for goods.
3. Effects of inflation include a reduction in purchasing power of currency, changes to spending habits, speculation, and impacts to income distribution between lenders and borrowers.
The Great Recession Is Over: What’s Next, and What Does It Mean for Learning?
The Great Recession of 2008-2009 was the worst economic downturn since the 1930s. While officially over, the recovery has been unusually weak with slow GDP and job growth. This recession was caused by the financial crisis and housing market collapse, and different in requiring massive consumer and government debt reduction. Persistent budget deficits could increase interest rates and inflation. Learning professionals should closely align learning with strategic priorities, build strong business cases, and create a flexible cost structure to weather ongoing economic uncertainty.
Finlight Research - Market perspectives - Jan 2015
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
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• The second important type of Debit security is NOTES. Apart from similarities associated with notes and bonds, notes have shorter term maturity.
• The 3rd important type of Debit security is TRESURY BILLS. These securities have short-term ranging from three months, six months, and one year. Issuer of such securities are governments.
• Above discussed debit securities are mostly issued by governments and corporations. CERTIFICATE OF DEPOSITS CDs are issued by Banks and Financial Institutions. Risk factor associated with CDs gets reduced when issued by reputable institutions or Banks.
Following are the risk attached with debt securities: Credit risk, interest rate risk and currency risk
There are no fixed maturity dates in such securities, and asset’s value is determined by company’s performance. There are two major types of equity securities: common stock and preferred stock.
Common Stock: These are simple equity securities and bear no complexities which the preferred stock bears. Holders of such securities or instrument have the voting rights when it comes to select the company’s board of director or the business decisions to be made.
Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks are sometime referred to as hybrid securities, because it contains elements of both debit security and equity security. Preferred stock confers ownership rights to security holder that is why it is equity instrument
<a href="https://www.writofinance.com/equity-securities-features-types-risk/" >Equity securities </a> as a whole is used for capital funding for companies. Companies have multiple expenses to cover. Potential growth of company is required in competitive market. So, these securities are used for capital generation, and then uses it for company’s growth.
Concluding remarks
Both are employed in business. Businesses are often established through debit securities, then what is the need for equity securities. Companies have to cover multiple expenses and expansion of business. They can also use equity instruments for repayment of debits. So, there are multiple uses for securities. As an investor, you need tools for analysis. Investment decisions are made by carefully analyzing the market. For better analysis of the stock market, investors often employ financial analysis of companies.
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War Room: Yield Shock
- 1. YIELD SHOCK 04 March 2021
- 2. WAR ROOM Idea Generation Macro Coaching Scenario Updates HiddenLevers runs on SCENARIOS like Instagram runs on PHOTOS Fed Underwrites Economy Climate Disasters Real Estate “Post” Covid COVID 2.0
- 3. SCENARIO PULSE CHECK FED TREASURY MERGER – GDP boost + Sell Off US REFLATION – USD + Rates Rising
- 4. sources: MarketWatch, HiddenLevers ECON PULSE CHECK TRAVEL + HOSPITALITY UNEMPLOYMENT Labor Force Participation stalled HOME + RETAIL Retail sales improving. Vaccine boost? Fuel usage still depressed. Permanent WFH effect? (-12.2% on 1/28) (-74.4% on 1/28) Retail Sales rebound strengthening Housing Starts still elevated Weekly Jobless Claims still above 2009 peak
- 5. YIELD SHOCK REASONS FOR RISING YIELDS sources: HiddenLevers, Atlanta Fed CPI vs Budget Deficit: Post-WWII Style Inflation? Fed Q1 2021 Estimate = 10% GDP Growth WWII Era COVID Oil Crises Inflation started at 0% in 1940, peaking at 20% in 1947 after removal of price controls Pandemic deficits second only to WWII GDP recovery well underway – Q1 2021 should surpass pre-pandemic peak Employment still lags, may slow inflation
- 6. sources: HiddenLevers, FRED, FRED 2 YIELD SHOCK INFLATION FACT VS FICTION FICTION: Printing money causes inflation LEVER PRICE LUMBER All time highs @ $320 COPPER 10y highs @ $4.25 GOLD Down 15% over 7 months OIL +67% over 4m to $60/barrel USD Rebounding since late Jan FACT: Inflation directly affects rates FACT: Look to TIPS for inflation expectations FACT: Money Velocity is a stronger driver
- 7. “We will not tighten monetary policy solely in response to a strong labor market” “Appropriate monetary policy will aim to achieve inflation above 2% for some time” “Move up in yields did catch my attention… transitory increases in inflation" sources: CNBC 1 2 3, Federal Reserve, Financial Times DO NOTHING YIELD SHOCK FED POLICY OPTIONS TWIST BUY PROGRAM TAPER BUY PROGRAM RAISE INTEREST RATES Powell Statements Analyst Consensus
- 8. sources: HiddenLevers, RISING INTEREST RATES SCENARIO RETIRED March 2017 Speed of rate rise is real culprit, not the rate level itself
- 9. YIELD SHOCK GOOD 10y chart facing heavy resistance Tech compression may be priced in Fear of inflation is not inflation Bond Market Self Soothes
- 10. YIELD SHOCK BASELINE Was effective in 2011-2012 buy long dates, sell short dates band aid for short term pain Fed Twists Rates
- 11. YIELD SHOCK UGLY inaction or overreaction Unstable market, not economy Synthetic taper tantrum Fed Loses Control
- 12. GOOD S+P 500 3200 -15% S+P 500 4200 +12% S+P 500 3900 (+4%) BAD MARKET INSTABILITY INCREASES DUE TO FED INACTION / OVERREACTION RAPID RATE RISE TEMPORARY, RESOLVES WITHOUT FED ACTION FED BUYS LONG TERM AND SELLS SHORT TERM, SUCCESSFULLY LOWERING 10Y YIELD SHOCK MACRO RISK PARITY 10Y 1.50% FLAT BASELINE 10Y 1.30% -25bps 10Y 3.25% +170bps Fed Loses Control Fed Twists Rates Bond Market Self Soothes NASDAQ 13.5K +6% NASDAQ 14.5K +14% NASDAQ 10K -22%
- 13. YIELD SHOCK WINNERS + LOSERS sources: HiddenLevers, Forbes LOSERS large cap tech unprofitable companies utilities growth equities stay at home plays US treasuries WINNERS financials home sellers energy cyclicals reopening plays bitcoin? STRATEGY FROM HERE quality less expensive reopening priced in dividend payers stock buy back names FANGS crypto? 10Y BITCOIN
- 14. sources: YIELD SHOCK TECH MULTIPLES RESET sources: HiddenLevers, DQYDJ DCF Calculator Rising yields likely cut tech valuations, Unprofitable tech likely more pain 10Y at 3.25 = AMZN worth 1/3 less (assumes equity risk premium of 500bps above treasuries)
- 15. GOOD S+P 500 3200 -15% S+P 500 4200 +12% S+P 500 3800 FLAT Covid Era Persists BAD EXTREME JUMP IN YIELDS TRIGGERS RESET ON TECH MULTIPLES CATHY WOOD WAS RIGHT, LONG-TERM TECH HOLDERS REWARDED COVID ERA TECH DOMINATION PRICED IN NASDAQ MOONSHOTS MACRO RISK PARITY NASDAQ 13K FLAT BASELINE Innovation Justifies Multiples Yield Shock NASDAQ 15K +18% NASDAQ 10K -22% 10Y 1.47% -03 bps 10Y 1.64% +09 bps 10Y 3.25% +170 bps
- 16. RAPIDITY OF RATE RISE AT ISSUE, NOT RATE LEVEL TECH MULTIPLES EXPLICITLY TIED TO 10Y STIMULUS BASED INFLATION LIKELY TEMPORARY FED MAY VERY WELL DO NOTHING YIELD SHOCK WHAT TO SAY