The document outlines three stress testing scenarios - good, baseline, and bad - to help assess risks from potential economic and banking crises. The good scenario shows a continued economic recovery with bank stability. The baseline scenario models a slowing economy but avoided recession and bank stabilization. The bad scenario portrays a deeper banking crisis, recession, and more banks entering receivership. The stress testing aims to help weigh risks from different potential economic and market conditions.

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios
M A Y 2 0 2 3
Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™
Featuring Janus Henderson’s Kevin Preloger

2. Banking Crisis
S+P 500
4600
+10%
KBW Bank Index
56
+40%
10-Year Treasury
4.00
+40bps
S+P 500
4400
+5%
KBW Bank Index
50
+25%
10-Year Treasury
3.50
-10bps
S+P 500
3150
-25%
KBW Bank Index
32
-20%
10-Year Treasury
2.50
-110bps
Banks
Stabilize /
Recession
Avoided
GOOD
BASELINE
BAD
Banks
Stabilize /
Economy
Slows
Banking Crisis
Deepens /
Recession
No more banks enter
into receivership
Recession avoided
No more banks enter
into receivership
Economy and inflation
continue to slow
More banks enter
into receivership
Recession

3. Disclosures
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion
Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any
security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future
results.
Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only.
While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its
accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with
respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

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