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OAT_RI_Ep6 Weighingthe Risks_Mar2023_AI.pptx
1. Artificial Intelligence:
Prepare for the Future
By Stress-Testing Different Scenarios Featuring Jay Jacobs, CFA
Weighing the Risks with Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™
2. 2
Artificial Intelligence
GOOD
S+P 500
4620
+20%
Artificial intelligence adoption
faster than expected
Disinflationary impact
10-Year
Treasury
3.25
-70bps
AI Sparks Sharp
Productivity
Gains
S+P IT Sector
Index
4240
+40%
BASELINE
S+P 500
4235
+10%
Expected profit margin
improvement due to
productivity gains
Mildly disinflationary
10-Year
Treasury
3.50
-45bps
S+P IT Sector
Index
3640
+20%
BAD
S+P 500
3080
-20%
Technology often overrated in
short-term; underrated in long-
term
Overinvestment short-term
10-Year
Treasury
4.50
+60bps
S+P IT Sector
Index
1820
-40%
Expected
Productivity
Spurs Markets
More Hype Than
Action – At Least
Near-Term
3. 3
Disclosures
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion Risk Intelligence
does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any security or strategy. Past performance
of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results.
Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only. While the
information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its accuracy, completeness, or
suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with respect to the results to be obtained from its use.