How will the Geopolitical Concerns from the Ukrainian war and the war in Gaza effect the Market?

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios
N o v e m b e r 2 0 2 3
Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™
Featuring New York Life’s Lauren Goodwin

2. Geopolitical Concerns
S+P 500
5050
+15%
Oil
80
+5%
10-Year Treasury
4.50
-10bps
S+P 500
4710
+7%
Oil
90
+17%
10-Year Treasury
5.00
+40bps
S+P 500
3960
-10%
Oil
125
+60%
10-Year Treasury
5.50
+90bps
Tensions De-
escalate
GOOD
BASELINE
BAD
Tensions
Remain High
Tensions
Escalate
Israel conflict ends early
2024
Supply chains operate
efficiently
Ukraine continues slow
pace
Israel is resolved without
foreign intervention by end
of 2024
Other countries get
involved in Middle East
Crippled supply chains and
increased inflation

3. Disclosures
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Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any
security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future
results.
Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only.
While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its
accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with
respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

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