Chief Investment Officer Rusty Vanneman discusses stress testing different economic scenarios to prepare investment portfolios for potential risks and returns. Three scenarios are presented: 1) A "good" scenario where inflation and rates increase but the economy strengthens more than expected. 2) A "baseline" scenario where energy prices induce higher inflation but the economy remains resilient. 3) A "bad" scenario where a recession finally arrives and inflation remains elevated. Stress testing these scenarios helps weigh risks and opportunities to make investment strategies more resilient to changing economic conditions.

1. Prepare for the Future by Stress Testing Scenarios
A u g u s t 2 0 2 3
Weighing the Risks by Chief Investment Officer, Rusty Vanneman, CMT, CFA, BFA™
Featuring Teucrium’s Jake Hanley, CMT

2. Rising Energy Prices
S+P 500
4820
+10%
Oil
92
+15%
10-Year Treasury
4.75
+55bps
S+P 500
4600
+5%
Oil
88
+10%
10-Year Treasury
4.50
+5bps
S+P 500
3500
-20%
Oil
64
-20%
10-Year Treasury
3.75
-45bps
Economy
Strengthens
More Than
Expected
GOOD
BASELINE
BAD
Economy
Remains
Resilient
Energy Prices
Induce
Recession
Above average inflation and
volatility
Stronger that expected
economic returns
Inflation and volatility stay
elevated
Economy experiences stable
growth
Recession finally arrives
Inflation remains above Fed
target levels

3. Disclosures
Access to the services presented is provided solely as a service to financial advisors. Orion
Risk Intelligence does not make recommendations or determine the suitability of any
security or strategy. Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future
results.
Orion Risk Intelligence research and tools are provided for informational purposes only.
While the information is deemed reliable, Orion Risk Intelligence does not guarantee its
accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose, and makes no warranties with
respect to the results to be obtained from its use.

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