Presentation from the 12th CSI Forum: Cement & Concrete: From Linear to Circular. This is the opening presentation.

1. Opening key note
Prof. Dr. Bruno Oberle
President
World Resources Forum Association

2. Global Assessment on Natural Resource
Use and Management
Dr. Bruno Oberle, President WRFA, member IRP

3. Past and current natural resource use trends

4. Global material extraction, four main material categories, 1970 - 2017, million tons.
Source une International Resource Panel, Global Material Flow Database.

5. Global resource productivity (material, energy, and CO2 emissions) and labour productivity,
index, 1970 – 2017. Source: UNEP International Resource Panel, Global Material Flow
Database, IEA World Energy Database, EDGAR World Emission Database, ILO Labour
Statistics, UNSTATS National Accounts Database.

6. Comparison of PTB and RTB in the OECD, BRICS and Rest of the World, p, 2000 and 2015,
million tons. Source: UNEP International Resource Panel, Global Material Flow Database.

7. Water Withdrawal Ratios by Continent, Source: FAO, 2016.

8. Impact of Natural Resource Use

9. Split of the total global environmental impacts and socio-economic benefits between
resource types, the remaining economy (i.e. without the resource extraction and resource
processing sectors) and households. Data sources: Exiobase 3.4, combined with land-use
data from Chapter 2 and impact assessment methods. Reference year: 2011.

10. Temporal development of
environmental impacts from
resource extraction and processing
(up to “ready-to-be-used” materials
or fuels) and socio-economic
indicators from 2000 to 2015.
Figure top: total impact.
Figure bottom: impacts per GDP.
Reported data was available
between 2000 - 2011, while all
Figures after 2011 were
“nowcasted”.
Data source: Exiobase 3.4.

11. Figure 7a (above): Per capita impact
footprints (climate change impacts,
PM health impacts, water stress,
land-use related biodiversity loss),
and socio-economic benefits (value
added, employment) by income
group (consumption perspective).
The 100% line marks the global per
capita average.
Global net trade impacts per capita
ordered by income group countries,
represented as a share of global per
capita impact. Negative values refer
to an outsourcing of environmental
impacts or value/workplace creation
to other regions, positive values
refer to environmental impacts
occurring in the region of the
production of export materials.
Reference year: 2011, data source:
Exiobase 3.4.

12. Per capita impact footprints and socio-economic footprints attributed to the region of consumption, where
the 100% line marks the global per capita average. Reference year: 2011. Data source: Exiobase 3.4.

13. Climate change
impacts split
according to final
demand categories.

14. Share of total climate
change impacts of resource
extraction and processing
split by nations where the
impacts arise (x-axis) and
nations of final consumption
(colours of bars) in 2015.
The crosshatched area
refers to the impacts of
domestic final consumption
and the solid filled area to
resource-related impacts
exported and finally
consumed by other regions.

15. Global share of total value added, value added (VA) for compensation
of employment, and number of employed people related to material
production (values for all regions together add up to 100%). Right Axis:
Employment risk factor based on the social LCA approach, where a
factor of 1 corresponds to the global average

16. Global share of GDP, population and impacts of water
stress and land use-related biodiversity loss in the
production perspective (BD Loss Land use) classified
by human development (HDI class, x-axis).

17. What happens if we continue in a Business ar Usual
Trajectory?

18. Figure 13a (above) and 13b (below):
Economic growth in the OECD,
BRICS and the Rest of the World,
2015 – 2060.

19. Primary extraction in the OECD, BRICS
and ROW 215 - 2060
Top left: primary extraction by main
material categories in million tons
Top right: primary extraction by region in
million tons
Bottom left: primary extraction by region
per capita in tone
Source: CSIRO/IIASA (GTEM/GLOBIOM)

20. Physical trade balance of the OECD,
BRICS, and ROW, 2015-2060.
Figure top: PTB by region in million tons
Figure bottom: PTB by region per capita
in tons
Source: CSIRO/IIASA
(GTEM/GLOBIOM) 2018

21. Material intensity in the OECD, BRICS and the
Rest of the World, 2015 – 2060, by region in kg
per US$. Source: CSIRO/IIASA
(GTEM/GLOBIOM) 2018.

22. GHG emissions in the OECD, BRICS and the
Rest of the World, 2015 – 2060, by region in
million tons of CO2-eq. Source: CSIRO/IIASA
(GTEM/GLOBIOM) 2018.

23. Global domestic water withdrawal
projections modelled by three water
models (H08, WaterGAP, and PCR-
GLOBWB (PCR) under three SSP
scenarios (Wada et al. 2016).
Global industrial water withdrawal
projections modelled by three water
models (H08, WaterGAP, and PCR-
GLOBWB (PCR) under three SSP
scenarios (Wada et al. 2016).

24. Use changes under the Trend scenario between 2010 and 2050
Crop
Pasture
Forest
Other natural ecosystem

25. Key Findings for a Sustainibility Scenario

26. Global resource use slows but continues to grow.
Resource extractions grow by ##% per annum, around [one third] less than under Historical Trends, to reach ##.#
billion tonnes in 2040. Per capita resource use increases by ##% to #.# tonnes per person in low- and medium-
income nations in 2040, and for the world as a whole. Per capita resource use in high income nations stabilizes
from 2020 (increasing only ##% to 2040).
Wellbeing indicators grow faster than resource use.
Global average income (GDP per capita), [energy services] and food (protein per capita) are all projected to grow
faster than global per capita resource use, indicating broad based relative ‘wellbeing decoupling’. These indicators
improve more rapidly in low- and medium-income nations, [substantially] reducing – but not eliminating –
differences in income and access to basic needs across countries by 2060.
Environmental pressures fall, with absolute decoupling of environmental damage from economic growth and
increasing resource use.
Global greenhouse gas emissions fall ##% by 2040 from 2000 levels, while energy use per capita increases by
##% for the same period. Global habit loss is reversed, preventing the loss of ## million hectares of forests and
other native habitat, and restoring a further ## million hectares by 2040, while per capita protein consumption
increases by ##%. [This is achieved without increasing agricultural water extractions in water stressed catchments.
Improved diet, air quality, and more active mobility would deliver additional health benefits, and economic gains,
although these are not fully accounted for in the analysis.] Environmental pressures continue to fall beyond 2040,
with global emissions falling to [net zero] by 2060, as average global incomes reach USD ##,### – up ##% from
2015 levels.
These

27. These positive environmental outcomes contrast starkly with Historical Trends, which
projects increases of ##% in global greenhouse emissions, ##% in biomass extractions,
##% in the number of regions subject to water stress, and a ##% decrease in the global
area of native habit – all in a world on track to a 4°C increase in average global
temperature.
Sustainability measures promote stronger economic growth and boost wellbeing.
We find improved efficiency across resource use, energy, and food systems provides
economic benefits that more than outweigh the additional cost of reducing net greenhouse
gas emissions. The suite of resource efficiency and sustainability actions sees per capita
GDP ##% higher globally, and ##% higher in low income nations, in SDG Sustainability
relative to Historical Trends in 2040 – worth $#,### per person in today’s dollars.

28. Actions for the Sustainable Use of Natural Resources

29. Set Natural Resource Targets and Use Indicators to Measure Progress
Without national resource targets, it is impossible to measure domestic progress. This critical first step
should be built upon a common and up-to-date knowledge base. A monitoring system comprised of
targets and indicators should be developed in parallel to track the targets overtime.
Develop a National Plan to Create a Feasible Pathway to Sustainability
Each country must evaluate their domestic situation. This includes an analysis of which natural resources
are extracted and processed within the borders of a country, which natural resources are traded
internationally, if the country is a net exporter or a net importer of resources, how natural resources play
a role in the overall economy, and what are the impacts of natural resource use seen within the country..
Build a Policy Mix That Drives Incentives
The policy mix will aim at different steps of the resource transformation along the value chain, address
different actors in the public and the private sector, mobilize the different levels of the country
administrative structure, and choose the right moment to implement the different measures. In order to
ensure the policy mix is applied correctly, information flows must be strengthened, and there needs to be
an ex-post monitoring system that enables policy adjustments in the system as needed.
Address weaknesses and obstacles, using existing experiences
Addressing the resistance to change that may arise during a sustainable transition is a key element, The
national plan of a country, complete with an ambitious policy mix to achieve decoupling, requires capacity
building. All actors have a relevant role to play in building capacity. Leapfrogging is another concept that
can be harnessed for decoupling by policy- and decision-makers.
International Exchanges and Cooperation
The previous strategies depend on international exchanges, communication, and cooperation both at a
bi-laterally level or between many different countries and/or other national actors. International
organizations, such as the IRP, can play an important role by supporting this process and by providing a
scientific knowledge base.