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UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEMUNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
The Use of Predictive
Analytics in Health Care
Kathryn Morbitzer, PharmD
Wednesday, April 27th, 2016
1
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
The Use of Predictive Analytics in Health Care
• Data Analytics in Health Care
• Types of Data Analytics in Health Care
• Predictive Analytics
• Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care
• Implementing Electronic Health Care
Predictive Analytics
Agenda
2
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Data Analytics in Health Care
In today’s data-driven age, healthcare is transitioning
from opinion-based decisions to informed decisions
based on data and analytics.
Analyzing the data reveals trends and knowledge
that may run contrary to our assumptions causing
a shift in ultimate decisions that in turn will better
serve both patients and healthcare enterprises.
Kolker K. Strata Big Data. 2013: https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=predictive+analytics+in+healthcare+ppt&start=0
3
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Types of Data Analytics in Health Care
https://www.gartner.com
4
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Predictive Analytics
• Predictive analytics uses technology and statistical methods to
search through massive amounts of information, analyzing it to
predict outcomes for individual patients
https://www.healthcatalyst.com/predictive-analytics-healthcare-lessons/
5
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care
• Readmissions
• Use an algorithm to predict which patients are likely to be
readmitted to the hospital
• Tailor intervention to individual patient
• Ensure patients actually receive the precise interventions intended
for them
• Monitor specific patients after discharge to find out if having
problems before they decompensate
• Ensure low ratio of patients flagged for intervention to patients who
experience a readmission
Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
6
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care
• Triage
• Estimating risk of complication when patient first presents
to hospital
• Assists in managing staffing and bed resources
• Anticipates need for a transfer to appropriate unit
• Requires detailed guideline that clarifies how algorithm
will inform care
Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
7
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care
• Emergency Care
Janke A. Ann Emerg Med. 2016;67:227-236
8
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care
• Decompensation
• Often before decompensation there is a period in which
physiological data can be used to determine whether
patient at risk for decompensation
• Host of technologies available to monitor patients who are in ICU,
general care, nursing homes, or at home
Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
9
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care
• Adverse Events
• Predict which patients are at risk of adverse events
• Renal Failure
• Combine analytics with data about exposures to specific medications
and measures of kidney function
• Infection
• Example: Monitoring and interpreting changes in heart rate variability
for detection of major decompensation in infants with low birthweights
before emergence of infection
• Adverse Drug Events
• Predict which patients may suffer an adverse drug event and detect
patients who are in early stages of event
Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
Suresh S. Pediatr Clin N Amer. 2016;63:357-366
10
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Implementing Electronic Health Care
Predictive Analytics
• Implementation of electronic health care predictive analytics is
needed to aid in real-time, point-of-care decision making
• Challenges include:
• Testing model in real-world setting under appropriate supervision
• Appropriate oversight of implementation
• Stakeholder engagement
• Appropriate patient privacy and consent policies
• Data quality assurance
• Broad implementation of the model in a health care setting
• Interoperability of health care technology platforms
• Transparency within health care systems
• Long-term challenges
• Medical education and training
• Sustainability
Amarasingham R. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1148-1154
Cohen I. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1139-1147
11
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
Conclusions
• Predictive analytics has the potential to use the
power of big data to improve health of patients and
lower cost of health care
• Multiple models exist that will benefit from use of
predictive analytics
• Several challenges need to be overcome to take
advantage of full use of predictive analytics
Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEMUNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM
The Use of Predictive
Analytics in Health Care
Kathryn Morbitzer, PharmD
Wednesday, April 27th, 2016

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The Use of Predictive Analytics in Health Care

  • 1. UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEMUNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM The Use of Predictive Analytics in Health Care Kathryn Morbitzer, PharmD Wednesday, April 27th, 2016
  • 2. 1 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM The Use of Predictive Analytics in Health Care • Data Analytics in Health Care • Types of Data Analytics in Health Care • Predictive Analytics • Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care • Implementing Electronic Health Care Predictive Analytics Agenda
  • 3. 2 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Data Analytics in Health Care In today’s data-driven age, healthcare is transitioning from opinion-based decisions to informed decisions based on data and analytics. Analyzing the data reveals trends and knowledge that may run contrary to our assumptions causing a shift in ultimate decisions that in turn will better serve both patients and healthcare enterprises. Kolker K. Strata Big Data. 2013: https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=predictive+analytics+in+healthcare+ppt&start=0
  • 4. 3 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Types of Data Analytics in Health Care https://www.gartner.com
  • 5. 4 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Predictive Analytics • Predictive analytics uses technology and statistical methods to search through massive amounts of information, analyzing it to predict outcomes for individual patients https://www.healthcatalyst.com/predictive-analytics-healthcare-lessons/
  • 6. 5 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care • Readmissions • Use an algorithm to predict which patients are likely to be readmitted to the hospital • Tailor intervention to individual patient • Ensure patients actually receive the precise interventions intended for them • Monitor specific patients after discharge to find out if having problems before they decompensate • Ensure low ratio of patients flagged for intervention to patients who experience a readmission Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
  • 7. 6 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care • Triage • Estimating risk of complication when patient first presents to hospital • Assists in managing staffing and bed resources • Anticipates need for a transfer to appropriate unit • Requires detailed guideline that clarifies how algorithm will inform care Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
  • 8. 7 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care • Emergency Care Janke A. Ann Emerg Med. 2016;67:227-236
  • 9. 8 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care • Decompensation • Often before decompensation there is a period in which physiological data can be used to determine whether patient at risk for decompensation • Host of technologies available to monitor patients who are in ICU, general care, nursing homes, or at home Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
  • 10. 9 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Uses of Predictive Analytics in Health Care • Adverse Events • Predict which patients are at risk of adverse events • Renal Failure • Combine analytics with data about exposures to specific medications and measures of kidney function • Infection • Example: Monitoring and interpreting changes in heart rate variability for detection of major decompensation in infants with low birthweights before emergence of infection • Adverse Drug Events • Predict which patients may suffer an adverse drug event and detect patients who are in early stages of event Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131 Suresh S. Pediatr Clin N Amer. 2016;63:357-366
  • 11. 10 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Implementing Electronic Health Care Predictive Analytics • Implementation of electronic health care predictive analytics is needed to aid in real-time, point-of-care decision making • Challenges include: • Testing model in real-world setting under appropriate supervision • Appropriate oversight of implementation • Stakeholder engagement • Appropriate patient privacy and consent policies • Data quality assurance • Broad implementation of the model in a health care setting • Interoperability of health care technology platforms • Transparency within health care systems • Long-term challenges • Medical education and training • Sustainability Amarasingham R. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1148-1154 Cohen I. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1139-1147
  • 12. 11 UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM Conclusions • Predictive analytics has the potential to use the power of big data to improve health of patients and lower cost of health care • Multiple models exist that will benefit from use of predictive analytics • Several challenges need to be overcome to take advantage of full use of predictive analytics Bates D. Health Affairs.2014;33(7):1123-1131
  • 13. UNCHEALTHCARESYSTEMUNCHEALTHCARESYSTEM The Use of Predictive Analytics in Health Care Kathryn Morbitzer, PharmD Wednesday, April 27th, 2016