Ben Belton, Michigan State University. Presented at the ReSAKSS-Asia conference “Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and Future Opportunities”. An international conference jointly organized by ReSAKSS-Asia, IFPRI, TDRI, and TVSEP project of Leibniz Universit Hannover with support from USAID and Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) at the Dusit Thani Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand December 12–14, 2017.

1. The Emerging ‘Quiet
Revolution’ in Myanmar's
Aquaculture Value Chain
Ben Belton
Food Security Policy Project
Agriculture and Rural Transformation in Asia: Past Experiences and
Future Opportunities
Bangkok, December 13, 2017

2. Background
• Myanmar among the world's leading aquaculture
producers. But less is known about its fish farm
sector than any other Asian country.
• Previous grey literature characterized Myanmar’s
aquaculture as:
1. Strongly export oriented
2. Dominated by very large farms
3. Small fish farms non-existent due to strict regulations
on conversion of paddy fields to ponds
4. Technologies of big farms ‘traditional’ and
extensive/semi-intensive

3. Methods
• Analysis of pond area, using satellite images
• Value chain study: 250 semi-structured interviews
• Household survey: 1100 HH in main fish farming
areas, including fish farming, crop farming and
landless HH
• Community survey: 73 villages – recall of numbers of
aquaculture-related businesses over past 10 years

4. Fish farm & survey locations
4

5. Finding 1: Most farmed fish produced in Myanmar
is sold on the fast growing domestic market
• >75% of fish sold through San Pya market, of which:
 40–50% to domestic markets outside Yangon;
 30% to markets in and around Yangon;
 20–30% for international export (mostly to Middle
East)
• Distributed throughout country by truck and express bus
• Proliferation of transport services post-2011
• Better connected markets, faster, cheaper distribution to
more distant locations inside Myanmar

7. Finding 2: Large fish farms dominate in terms of
area, but there are many small/medium
commercial farms and nurseries
Share of farms (frequency and area), by farm size category

8. Finding 3: In the main fish farming zones, smaller
farms have “worked around” restrictions on
agricultural land use conversion
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
2002
2005
2008
2011
2014
Cumulativearea(acres)
Growout ponds
Vertically integrated nursery ponds
Specialized nursery ponds
Cumulative area of ponds constructed, 1969-2015

9. Need for informal arrangements:
increases entry barriers & costs
reduces tenure security
slows down farm growth

10. Finding 4: Upstream (feed and seed) and midstream
(wholesale and logistics) VC segments have grown
fast, driven by private investments of SMEs
Nurseries + 200%
Seed traders + 60%
Enterprise 2006 2016 % change Reference
area
Hatchery 30 60 100 Village tract
Nursery 501 1538 207 Village tract
Seed trader 166 265 60 Village tract
Pelleted feed trader 5 11 112 Local town
Rice bran/oil cake trader 112 175 56 Local town
Small boats for hire 115 216 88 Village
Fish trader 46 68 47 Local town
Ice factory 9 16 82 Local town
Mechanical excavator hire 2 24 961 Local town
Trucks for hire 1 20 1900 Village

12. Finding 5: Farms (large and small) are using a mix
of traditional and more modern farming practices
and technologies
Average yield, by yield quintile
0.6
2.1
4.1
5.9
6.9 0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Viss/acre
t/ha
Q5

13. Hlegu pond cluster (2004-2014)
Pond area: 274 ha → 697 ha
Integrated ponds: 0% → 74%

14. Use of pelleted feeds increasing (from low base)
86
44
14
8
12 10
6
63
14
10 8
3 0 0
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
% of farms using feed
% of feed costs
Share of farms using feed inputs, by feed
type, and share of feed type in total value
of feed inputs (%)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Cumulativenumberofadopters
Sinking feed
Floating feed
Cumulative adoption of pelleted feed,
by year and feed type (2000-2015)

15. Some species diversification (from low base)
Cumulative number of respondents farming species, by species and year
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Respondentsstocking(cumulative)
Rohu Catla
Mrigal Pangasius
Pacu Tilapia
Others
93%
77%

16. 6) Fish farms produce bigger economic spillovers than
crop farms; small fish farms produce bigger indirect
spillovers than large fish farms
Income gain by direct and indirect beneficiaries
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
SIM1:
new acre small
aqua
SIM2:
new acre big
aqua
SIM3:
new acre agri
SIM4:
convert crop to
small aqua
SIM5:
convert crop to
big aqua
USD
direct indirect

17. Conclusions
• The domestic market for farmed fish is vibrant and growing,
exports relatively unimportant.
• Many smaller commercial farms and nurseries have
emerged in last decade.
• Land use restrictions not enforced uniformly, but still
hamper small farm development
• Off-farm segments of value chain have grown quickly in step
with farms
• Some technological change and diversification in farming
• Aquaculture generates much larger economic spillovers than
agriculture; small commercial fish farms generate bigger
indirect spillovers than large fish farms
• A Quiet Revolution is emerging Myanmar’s aquaculture
value chain, but still has potential to go much further

18. Thank you!