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An investment plan in
support of Vietnam's
Nationally Determined
Contributions to the
Paris Agreement from
rice production...
Rice is the most important crop
in Vietnam
The MRD, the most important region for
rice: 12% of natural areas, 19% of
popul...
Challenges to climate change and extreme climate risk on rice
Drought & salted risks for rice
in MRD (medium yr)
Flooding ...
GHG emissions and potential GHG reduction from
rice
Source: MONRE (2017)
1. Introduction
Domestic
investment
plan for AWD
Policy gap analysis
Quantification of
investment needed
Consultation with finance experts...
3.1. Share of GHG reduction in NDCs from rice production
Unconditional
mitigation options
Potential GHG
reduction
MtCO2e %...
3.2 Policy levers and gaps for AWD
AWD priority in a variety of supportive policies:
• a green growth strategy effective u...
3.3. Cost-Benefit Analysis on AWD in MRD
3. Results
3.4. Proposed investment plan for AWD in MRD
1. Improved instructional and policy instruments for developing
AWD in MRD re...
3.5. Investment allocation and impacts
Province Potential
GHG
reduction
by 2030
(MtCO2e)
Net benefit earning
With
AWD
Diff...
3.6. Challenges and uncertainty
1. Policy development and implementation: policy
development as demands and politic perspe...
1. AWD is the important
mitigation options in NDCs
and policy levers in MRD;
2. Investment plan for AWD
requested high amo...
Thank you very much
for your attention!
Tran Van The
Institute for Agricultural Environment (IAE)
Ministry of Agriculture ...
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An investment plan in support of vietnam's nationally determined contributions to the Paris agreement from rice production in the Mekong River Delta

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Presented by Tran Van The as part of the USAID & CCAFS Low-Emission Rice webinar on 29 May 2019. For more details about this webinar visit the introduction presentation (Land use and climate research by the CGIAR, supported by USAID's Office of Global Climate Change) or visit the CCAFS and USAID websites.

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An investment plan in support of vietnam's nationally determined contributions to the Paris agreement from rice production in the Mekong River Delta

  1. 1. An investment plan in support of Vietnam's Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement from rice production in the Mekong River Delta Tran Van The , Mai Van Trinh, Nguyen Thi Dieu Trinh, Le Hoang Anh, Meryl Breton Richards, Leo Sebastian, Eva Wollenberg, Vu Duong Quynh and Bjoern Ole Sander
  2. 2. Rice is the most important crop in Vietnam The MRD, the most important region for rice: 12% of natural areas, 19% of population, half of rice cultivated area, shared 50% of rice quantity, 95% of rice for exportation 1. Introduction Source: GSO (2016), GoVN (2012) Source: GSO (2016), GoVN (2012) 0.00 2,000.00 4,000.00 6,000.00 8,000.00 2010 2015 2020 Cultivated rice areas (1000 ha) Whold country MRD 7,750.0 Ratio of crop, 2020 Rice Maize Tuber crop Vegetable Anunal industrial crop Perenial industrial crop Fruits Whole country
  3. 3. Challenges to climate change and extreme climate risk on rice Drought & salted risks for rice in MRD (medium yr) Flooding risk to rice in MRD region (medium yr) Flooding risk to rice in MRD region (extreme yr) Drought & salted risks for rice in MRD (extreme yr) Climate vulnerability map on rice Source: FAO/NAPs (2018)Source: Nguyen Hong Son, Bui Tan Yen, Leocadio Sebastian, 2018 – Working paper No. 220, CCAFS 1. Introduction
  4. 4. GHG emissions and potential GHG reduction from rice Source: MONRE (2017) 1. Introduction
  5. 5. Domestic investment plan for AWD Policy gap analysis Quantification of investment needed Consultation with finance experts; Identification of international funding sources Feasibility analysis on AWD (separated study): • Geographic suitability • Barriers to adoption • Identify incentives and enabling conditions to encourage large-scale adoption Identification of policy levers to incentivize adoption 2. Framework and Methodology Analysis of costs, benefits and risks (An Giang, Kien Giang, Soc Trang pro. In MRD)
  6. 6. 3.1. Share of GHG reduction in NDCs from rice production Unconditional mitigation options Potential GHG reduction MtCO2e % I. Total 6.4 100 I.I. Crop production 3.2 50 A2. Reuse of agro- residues 0.4 12.5 A3. AWD/SRI 0.9 28.1 A4. Introduction of biochar 1.1 34.4 A5. Integrated crop management in rice cultivation 0.5 15.6 A6. Integrated crop management in annual upland crops 0.3 9.4 I.II. Remaining agriculture (livestock, fishery) 3.2 50 Conditional mitigation options Potential GHG reduction MtCO2e % I. Total 39.8 100 I.I. Crop production 36.4 91.5 A7. Substitution of urea with ammonium sulfate 3.2 8.8 A8. Reuse of upland crop residues 0.3 8.8 A9. AWD/SRI 7 19.2 A10. Introduction of biochar 18.8 51.7 A14. Improved technology for waste treatment from crops 3.4 9.3 A15. Improved irrigation for coffee 3.4 9.3 A16. ICM in upland crops 0.3 0.8 I.2. Remaining agriculture (livestock) 3.4 8.5 3. Results
  7. 7. 3.2 Policy levers and gaps for AWD AWD priority in a variety of supportive policies: • a green growth strategy effective until 2030 (Decision No 403/QD-TTg) • a restructured project of crop production development (Decision No 1006/QD-BNN) • restructured rice production project up to 2030 (Decision No 1898/QD-BNN-TT) • Vietnam’s plan for Paris Agreement implementation (Decision No 2053/QD-TTg) • Action plan to response CC in agr. Vision 2050 (Decision 819/QD-BNN-KHCN) • strategy and plan for rice development (Decision No 1006/QD-BNN) • strategy of MRD development to response CC (Resolution 120/NQ-CP) • other projects and programs (VnSAT, the extension project for rice and the sustainable development plan for the MRD region). Remains of policy gaps and limitations: • Ambitious targets and limited financial resources • Poor linkages and capacity for LEDs • Low benefits and small size • Rich performance but poor replication • Poor mechanism support (land tenure, loan support) 3. Results
  8. 8. 3.3. Cost-Benefit Analysis on AWD in MRD 3. Results
  9. 9. 3.4. Proposed investment plan for AWD in MRD 1. Improved instructional and policy instruments for developing AWD in MRD region: policy mechanism, integrated AWD in master plan, restructured project; technical guidelines; investment guidelines; 2. Capacity improvement for policy makers, private partners and farmers for developing AWD in MRD region: local officers, farmers and enterprise communities; partnership stakeholders (PPP); sharing international and local experiences; negotiation capacity; 3. Improved national capacity for NDCs implementation for AWD in rice production: capacity and efficiency assessment of irrigation system for AWD; direct supportive investment for expanding AWD (900,000 ha); MRV development and operation in local and link to international system. 4. Improved coordination mechanism between the parties for AWD in rice production: investment for Local, regional and international dialogue on LED, AWD and MRD sustainable development; developing linkages with financial organizations (banks, fund holders, credits, enterprises, farmers and policy-makers 3. Results
  10. 10. 3.5. Investment allocation and impacts Province Potential GHG reduction by 2030 (MtCO2e) Net benefit earning With AWD Difference (-/+) to Non-AWD Long An 0.49 103.39 16.67 Tien Giang 1.04 218.73 35.28 Ben Tre 0.48 100.45 16.20 Tra Vinh 0.84 177.29 28.59 Vinh Long 0.51 106.53 17.18 Dong Thap 1.41 295.65 47.68 An Giang 1.81 379.67 61.23 Kien Giang 0.78 163.10 26.30 Can Tho 0.94 197.98 31.93 Hau Giang 0.51 106.91 17.24 Soc Trang 1.48 310.56 50.08 Bac Lieu 0.30 63.63 10.26 Ca Mau 0.38 78.78 12.71 Total 10.97 2,302.68 371.36 Economic impacts from AWD to farmers (M.USD) 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 Policy reform Technical capacity strengthening MRV operation Research, performance and planning Hard infrastructure M.US$ Investment budget for AWD in MRD in estimation State budget Local budget International Private Investment allocation in estimation for AWD in MRD (M.US$): ~1 million ha 3. Results
  11. 11. 3.6. Challenges and uncertainty 1. Policy development and implementation: policy development as demands and politic perspectives and financial sources (central budget, local budget, private and international) 2. CBA: direct costs belongs to private, be small and estimable while indirect costs belongs to communities, states, huge and not easy to estimate, vs. financial benefits be estimable and belong to private, co-benefits, not easy to estimable and exist in long -term 3. Correct prices of GHG reduction from rice: social costs/benefits (infrastructure, irrigation investment, environmental costs, natural resources accounting; 4. MRV: under developed and complicated MRV for AWD 5. NDC: Existing GHG mitigation practices for unconditional GHG mitigation options for NDCs and international prior for rice? 3. Results
  12. 12. 1. AWD is the important mitigation options in NDCs and policy levers in MRD; 2. Investment plan for AWD requested high amount for hard infrastructure while economic return in long- run and to private (farmers); and 3. More prior domestic financial sources and international support for developing AWD in MRD, as promising GHG mitigation options to contribute to NDCs. 4. Conclusion and recommendation
  13. 13. Thank you very much for your attention! Tran Van The Institute for Agricultural Environment (IAE) Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development Vietnam tranvanthe.iae@gmail.com

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