ILRI’s Future in the Emerging Global Context <br />What are the critical outcomes that ILRI should deliver in the next 5 t...
Presentation Outline<br />The changing global context<br />ILRI’s continuing response & deliverables<br />A bit about me<b...
The Global Context for Livestock<br />Global Challenges<br />Livestock Domains<br />Feeding the world <br />Climate change...
Feeding the World<br />2.5b and 70% more food by 2050<br />80% from increased productivity<br />Major role for livestock p...
Feeding the World  & REDUCING POVERTY<br />Livelihood for 1 billion people<br />75% of the world’s poor involved in livest...
Climate Change<br />Impact on poor people’s livestock systems<br />Cut emissions by 2/3 in 25 years –2 degree track<br />L...
US Dairy: Environmental Indicators<br />1944 compared with 2007<br />(per billion kg milk)<br />Source: J.L. Capper, R.A. ...
Globalization<br />Winners and losers<br />Distortions in trade and subsidy policies<br />Smallholder competitiveness<br /...
9<br />Costs of selected zoonotic disease outbreaks <br />(1986-2009, $ billion)<br />
Livestock losses by species<br />Zoonoses<br />Non-Zoonoses<br />Total loss:<br /> 382‘886  LSUs<br />Total loss:<br />379...
HOW SHOULD ILRI CONTINUE TO RESPOND?<br />
CGIAR’s Research for Development Agenda<br />
The New CGIAR Structure<br />Global Conference On Agricultural Research For Development (GCARD)<br />Oversight<br />Consor...
ILRI’s POSTURE in CGIAR Research programs<br />Major Player<br /><ul><li>CRP 3.7 -Sustainable food productivity increase f...
   CRP 4 –Agriculture for improved Nutrition and Health (IFPRI, ILRI)
  CRP 7 –Climate Change (CIAT, ILRI, IITA, ICARDA, ICRISAT, CIP)</li></ul>Minor player<br /><ul><li>   CRP2 -Policies and ...
   CRP 3.5 -Grain Legumes for enhanced food and feed security (ICRISAT)
   CRP1.1 -Integrated agriculture in dry areas (ICARDA)
   CRP5 -Water scarcity and land degradation (IWMI)
  CRP 3.6 –Dryland Cereals (ICRISAT)</li></li></ul><li>ILRI’s Research for Development Agenda<br />
Annual funding to Livestock in the cgiar in  10 years time<br />More Realistic: 20% share<br />Aspiration: 40% share<br />
What Comes out of the Hopper: Decision-making criteria<br />
What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years?<br />Poverty, and food and nutritional security<br />Technologies and institut...
What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years?<br />Reduce risk to livestock and human health<br />Vaccines, diagnostics and ...
What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years?<br />Environmental sustainability<br />Promote Climate Smart Livestock Systems...
What should ILRI deliver?<br />
How Should ILRI work within CGIAR <br />Upstream research response  GPGs<br />Anchored in smallholder  realities<br />Lev...
How should ILRI work internally<br />Stable, longer-term funding<br />How to measure impact of Livestock research<br />Get...
So Why Jimmy Smith?<br />
Familiarity with primary constituencies<br /><ul><li>Raised on a small farm with mixed crop-livestock system
Clear understanding of NARS, CGIAR, and Regional partner relationships
Served in the CGIAR
Have been a bi-lateral Donor
Agriculture from $50m to $350m annually
      CGIAR from $17m to $46m
Serving within a co-sponsor – World Bank
      Livestock from $200m to $1.5b
      Worked with others to protect investments in the CGIAR</li></ul>25<br />
PARTING WORDS<br />Congratulations to Carlos and the Team<br />Attention to Agriculture -Perhaps a once in a lifetime<br /...
THANK YOU<br />
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ILRI’s Future in the Emerging Global Context: What are the critical outcomes that ILRI should deliver in the next 5 to 10 years?

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A presentation by James W. Smith,Nairobi, Kenya, 11 April 2011.

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  • Period Disease (Country) Start Estimate 1986-2009 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (UK) 1986 15,500,000,000 6.1 billion in 1997-2009 1994 Plague (India) 1994 2,000,000,000 Sept. 1998-April 1999 Nipah virus (Malaysia) 1998 671,000,000 January 1999-Dec. 2008 West Nile fever (USA) 1999 400,000,000 Nov. 2002-July 2003 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (CD, China, ROW)2002 41,500,000,000 January 2004-January 2009Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Asia) 2004 20,000,000,000 2003-2007 Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (USA) 2004 11,000,000,000 Oct. 2005-Jan. 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Europe) 2005 500,000,000 Nov. 2005-January 2009 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (Africa) 2005 Nov. 2006-May 2007 Rift Valley Fever (Tanzania, Kenya, Somalia) 2006 30,000,000There appears to be a trend over time of increasing frequency and increasing costs – but these are just selected major outbreaks. It would be interesting to add persistent, endemic zoonoses and to try to obtain the costs of all outbreaks…In the first year of the crisis, the total economic loss from BSE to the U.K. was estimated at [pound]740-[pound]980 million (Atkinson, 1999) (US$1.07-$1.4 billion assuming [pound]=US$1.444). The cumulative gross budgetary cost of BSE to the U.K. between March 1996 and March 31, 2000 stands at roughly [pound]3.5 billion (US$5.05 billion), and was expected to reach [pound]4 billion (US$5.8 billion) by March 31, 2001.The export ban was lifted in 2000, so I expect that from then on, we can just take the cost of testing. Over the period 2001-2006, the cost amounted to Pound 214 million (or US $ 300 million, so we can add this to the US $ 5.8 billion, coming to a total of US $ 6.1 billion over the period 1997-2006. See http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld200607/ldhansrd/text/70416w0001.htm#07041619000002
  • Poultry and cattle account for most of the losses, especially for zoonoses (more than 90%).
  • There is also: CGIAR US$1.6 billion target to 2025 --to attain 1.7% annual growth--
  • Close the attainment gap between women and men livestock enterprises and promote expanded opportunities for both
  • Expand efforts to secure more stable longer term funding for the global public good livestock agenda and help NARS mobilize resources as wellContinue the efforts to devote more attention to Livestock in the next edition of the CGIAR StrategyContinue to build ILRI’s internal capabilities, confidence and reputation to exert even more influence on the global architecture that governs agriculture/livestock Build internal capabilities to excel in internal team work and external partnership management (including the private sector), negotiating, and performance based management
  • Expand efforts to secure more stable longer term funding for the global public good livestock agenda and help NARS mobilize resources as wellContinue the efforts to devote more attention to Livestock in the next edition of the CGIAR StrategyContinue to build ILRI’s internal capabilities, confidence and reputation to exert even more influence on the global architecture that governs agriculture/livestock Build internal capabilities to excel in internal team work and external partnership management (including the private sector), negotiating, and performance based management
  • Expand efforts to secure more stable longer term funding for the global public good livestock agenda and help NARS mobilize resources as wellContinue the efforts to devote more attention to Livestock in the next edition of the CGIAR StrategyContinue to build ILRI’s internal capabilities, confidence and reputation to exert even more influence on the global architecture that governs agriculture/livestock Build internal capabilities to excel in internal team work and external partnership management (including the private sector), negotiating, and performance based management
  • This slide shows the scope for One Health – at the intersection of animal, human,wildlife and ecosystem health
  • Initial Assessment of the Impact of Poultry Sales and Production Bans on Household Incomes in VietnamD. Roland-Holst, J. Otte, D. Pfeiffer, FAO, 2006; study of data on 600 households.1.Income declines up to 20% for poorest householdsThe poorer the household (left side) the greater the decline in incomeImpact on food security, nutrition
  • ILRI’s Future in the Emerging Global Context: What are the critical outcomes that ILRI should deliver in the next 5 to 10 years?

    1. 1. ILRI’s Future in the Emerging Global Context <br />What are the critical outcomes that ILRI should deliver in the next 5 to 10 years?<br />Jimmy W. Smith<br />April 11th 2011<br />Nairobi, Kenya<br />
    2. 2. Presentation Outline<br />The changing global context<br />ILRI’s continuing response & deliverables<br />A bit about me<br />
    3. 3. The Global Context for Livestock<br />Global Challenges<br />Livestock Domains<br />Feeding the world <br />Climate change <br />Globalization<br />
    4. 4. Feeding the World<br />2.5b and 70% more food by 2050<br />80% from increased productivity<br />Major role for livestock products<br />Steadily increasing demand<br />26% of all protein<br />Micronutrients <br />But the role of <br /> livestock is often <br /> not recognized<br />
    5. 5. Feeding the World & REDUCING POVERTY<br />Livelihood for 1 billion people<br />75% of the world’s poor involved in livestock <br /> rearing or trading --<br />a high proportion <br /> of them are women<br />
    6. 6. Climate Change<br />Impact on poor people’s livestock systems<br />Cut emissions by 2/3 in 25 years –2 degree track<br />Livestock part of the problem <br />18 % of GHG emissions<br />Livestock part of the solution <br />soil carbon<br />Increasing productivity --contributing to two goals<br />
    7. 7. US Dairy: Environmental Indicators<br />1944 compared with 2007<br />(per billion kg milk)<br />Source: J.L. Capper, R.A. Cady and D.E. Bauman, Journal of Animal Science, 2009. 87:2160-2167<br />
    8. 8. Globalization<br />Winners and losers<br />Distortions in trade and subsidy policies<br />Smallholder competitiveness<br />Zoonotics --movement of people and goods <br />Land ownership <br /> changes<br />
    9. 9. 9<br />Costs of selected zoonotic disease outbreaks <br />(1986-2009, $ billion)<br />
    10. 10. Livestock losses by species<br />Zoonoses<br />Non-Zoonoses<br />Total loss:<br /> 382‘886 LSUs<br />Total loss:<br />379‘327 LSUs<br />Source: SAFOSO <br />10<br />
    11. 11. HOW SHOULD ILRI CONTINUE TO RESPOND?<br />
    12. 12. CGIAR’s Research for Development Agenda<br />
    13. 13. The New CGIAR Structure<br />Global Conference On Agricultural Research For Development (GCARD)<br />Oversight<br />Consortium<br />Fund<br />Strategy and Results Framework<br />Funders’ Forum<br />Board<br />Management Layer<br />Independent Science and Partnership Council<br />Donor Contributions<br />Research Centers<br />Fund Council<br />Performance Agreements<br />ConsortiumOffice<br />Fund Office<br />Bilateral Project Financing<br />
    14. 14. ILRI’s POSTURE in CGIAR Research programs<br />Major Player<br /><ul><li>CRP 3.7 -Sustainable food productivity increase for global food security: livestock and fish (ILRI, World Fish)
    15. 15. CRP 4 –Agriculture for improved Nutrition and Health (IFPRI, ILRI)
    16. 16. CRP 7 –Climate Change (CIAT, ILRI, IITA, ICARDA, ICRISAT, CIP)</li></ul>Minor player<br /><ul><li> CRP2 -Policies and institutions (IFPRI)
    17. 17. CRP 3.5 -Grain Legumes for enhanced food and feed security (ICRISAT)
    18. 18. CRP1.1 -Integrated agriculture in dry areas (ICARDA)
    19. 19. CRP5 -Water scarcity and land degradation (IWMI)
    20. 20. CRP 3.6 –Dryland Cereals (ICRISAT)</li></li></ul><li>ILRI’s Research for Development Agenda<br />
    21. 21. Annual funding to Livestock in the cgiar in 10 years time<br />More Realistic: 20% share<br />Aspiration: 40% share<br />
    22. 22. What Comes out of the Hopper: Decision-making criteria<br />
    23. 23. What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years?<br />Poverty, and food and nutritional security<br />Technologies and institutions to link smallholder to markets nationally and internationally<br />Safer livestock products<br />Gender to the top of the agenda<br />close the attainment gap between male and female headed farms, and 100 million fewer people will be hungry. FAO State of Food and Agriculture 2010 <br />
    24. 24. What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years?<br />Reduce risk to livestock and human health<br />Vaccines, diagnostics and institutional options to protect the assets of the poor<br />Advance the One Health approach to attain better animal-human-ecosystems health outcomes<br />Continue to leverage BecA to contribute to livestock productivity, conservation and adaptation, as well as to animal health<br />
    25. 25. What would ILRI deliver in next 5-10 years?<br />Environmental sustainability<br />Promote Climate Smart Livestock Systems <br />Technologies that demonstrate sustainable increase in resource use efficiency, reduce the carbon foot print and build resilience <br />Bring rangelands (especially pastoral systems) into Payment for Environmental Services schemes<br />
    26. 26. What should ILRI deliver?<br />
    27. 27. How Should ILRI work within CGIAR <br />Upstream research response  GPGs<br />Anchored in smallholder realities<br />Leverage relationships within the CRPs and beyond<br />Strengthen links between science and international development <br />Revitalize training as part of the research approach <br />Strategic partnerships to leverage the work of public, private, and civic sectors<br />Attain wider impacts and outcomes<br />22<br />
    28. 28. How should ILRI work internally<br />Stable, longer-term funding<br />How to measure impact of Livestock research<br />Get more livestock in the next CGIAR strategy<br />Continuing education for staff, maintain competitive edge<br />Capacity building for <br />Team work<br />Partnership management<br />Negotiation<br />Results-based management<br />
    29. 29. So Why Jimmy Smith?<br />
    30. 30. Familiarity with primary constituencies<br /><ul><li>Raised on a small farm with mixed crop-livestock system
    31. 31. Clear understanding of NARS, CGIAR, and Regional partner relationships
    32. 32. Served in the CGIAR
    33. 33. Have been a bi-lateral Donor
    34. 34. Agriculture from $50m to $350m annually
    35. 35. CGIAR from $17m to $46m
    36. 36. Serving within a co-sponsor – World Bank
    37. 37. Livestock from $200m to $1.5b
    38. 38. Worked with others to protect investments in the CGIAR</li></ul>25<br />
    39. 39. PARTING WORDS<br />Congratulations to Carlos and the Team<br />Attention to Agriculture -Perhaps a once in a lifetime<br />Move Livestock up the global agenda<br />Mobilize resources to respond at scale<br />Build Partnerships to leverage investments, facilitate uptake and expand our influence. <br />
    40. 40. THANK YOU<br />
    41. 41.
    42. 42. Relevant experience<br />Technical and management education<br />Diploma in Tropical Ag., Ph.D in Animal Science and MBA equivalent<br />Private and public sector experience<br />Worked at national, regional and international levels<br />Bilateral and multilateral experience as a donor <br />Worked in or for all developing regions of the world<br />
    43. 43. FUNDING: A MAJOR CHALLENGE<br />Strengthen priority setting, monitoring and evaluation<br />An integrated strategy<br />IMPACT<br />DG<br />DISSEMINATION<br />RESEARCH<br />FUND RAISING<br /><ul><li>Non traditional investors: Gates, Google, etc
    44. 44. Private sector : Walmart, Mc Donalds, Nestle
    45. 45. Advocates: Jim Wolfensohn, CEOs of major companies</li></li></ul><li>
    46. 46. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries clearly outpaces that of developed countries<br />Developing<br />Developed<br />
    47. 47. Gains in meat consumption in developing countries clearly outpaces that of developed countries<br />Developing<br />Developed<br />
    48. 48. One Health Approach: the concept<br />CLIMATE<br />Ecosphere<br />Zoosphere<br />Humans<br />One Health<br />Domestic Animals<br />Wildlife<br />ECOSYSTEM SERVICES<br />
    49. 49. Poor households hardest hit – income effect of backyard poultry sales ban in Vietnam<br />
    50. 50. The Mitigation Challenge<br />Implications for GHG Emission<br />Chemical N. fert. Product.<br />On-farm fossil fuel<br />Deforestation<br />OM release from ag. soils<br />Pasture degradation<br />Processing fossil fuel<br />Transport fossil fuel<br />Enteric fermentation<br />Manure storage/processing<br />N fertilization<br />Legume production<br />Manure storage/processing<br />Manure spreading<br />Manure indirect emissions<br />N2O<br />Manure 25%<br />Deforestation34%<br />CO2<br />Enteric fermentation26%<br />CH4<br />
    51. 51. Disease reporting delay-cost of control relationships<br />Cost of control outbreak<br />Exposure in humans<br />Exposure in animals<br />Clinical signs in humans<br />Clinical signs in animals<br />Humans seek medical care<br />Adapted from IOM (2009)<br />37<br />
    52. 52. Livestock and Food Supply<br />Based on FAOSTAT (2005-07 avg.)<br />
    53. 53. Potential for Increased Effectiveness with One Health Approaches?Months elapsed from first outbreak to start of control measures<br />39<br />Average: 5.8 months<br />
    54. 54. Impact on International Food Prices (2010=100) <br />Average of four GCM, A1, A2 ,B1, B2 Scenarios<br />

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