Download as KEY, PPTX
Uploaded byUniversity of Hertfordshire
Telco survival
This document discusses how telecommunications companies can survive and prosper in the 21st century. It notes that technology, competition, and customer demands are changing rapidly. Companies that hold onto the past will die. The document recommends that telecom companies recognize changes that have already happened and are still to come, look for big opportunities, and change their business models. It suggests stopping dumb questions and assumptions about things like bandwidth needs, network control, and customer behavior. The document predicts major changes like voice services being killed by VOIP, networks bypassed by wireless, and anyone providing network services. It recommends moving to all-IP networks and fiber deployment to drastically reduce costs. The biggest predictions are positioning systems surpassing communications, sensor networks becoming all
More Related Content
Telco survival
- 1. Telecommunications… How to survive& prosper in: The 21st Century Peter Cochrane ca-global.org COCHRANE cochrane.org.uk a s s o c i a t e s
- 2. We live ina world where change seems to be faster by the day… Stasis is a killer! What we know for sure: Those companies & industries that hold * Technology onto the past always * Competition die…. * Customers …won’t wait
- 3.
- 4. 2000 It’s the softwarestupid
- 5. It’s the businessmodel stupid 2000 It’s the software stupid
- 6. “…the only humanthat likes change is a wet baby… and even then they cry and scream thro the process…”
- 7. IT = Thenervous system of business • Reduces cost Supports & empowers • Automates processes • Management • Improves efficiency • Marketing • Mitigates risk • Sales • Improves quality • Support • Improves timeliness • Customers • • • • Unfortunately the telecom industry is not seen as a friend or even a contributor to all this!
- 8. Business change cycle…neverending! Standby for the next cycle Threat/ Competition Prosper Opportunity/ Necessity for Survival Change Refinement Business IT Process Technology Operations Product/Service Innovation & Improvement - cost reduction
- 9. What is fundamentally fuellingthe heat of change?
- 10. Decade-on-decade new, lowercost, and higher performance computers emerge: • Platform • Interface to humans & the world • Networking and/or interconnect structure log (people per computer) Electronic/electro -mechanical Mainframe Minicomputer Workstation PC Laptop PDA Explants & Implants in everything & everyone? Based on a slide by David Culler UC/Berkeley year
- 11. Raw computing poweralone has let us solve many of the limiting problems from the past: Spatial Processing • Interference fundamentally limits efficiency • Spatial processing mitigates self-interference Adaptive Antenna Base Station
- 12. We now haveall the technology to deliver an infinity of bandwidth to almost any location… …by fiber//re, radio and satellite…we can simultaneously reuse, space, time, frequency & wavelength….all the old limiters have gone!
- 13. Disruptive forces Digitization ofeverything…… and exponential growth Everything/one is getting connected…… and mobile Devices are getting smaller, smarter…… and cheaper Customer demand… and an explosion of broadband
- 14. A big mindsetchange in just 20 years! < 1960/70 > 1980/90 Monopoly Market Me Me The supplier It’s about .. The customer
- 15. So what doTelcos have to do to…
- 16. So what doTelcos have to do to… 1) Recognize the changes that have happened
- 17. So what doTelcos have to do to… 1) Recognize the changes that have happened 2) Identify the changes about to happen
- 18. So what doTelcos have to do to… 1) Recognize the changes that have happened 2) Identify the changes about to happen 3) Look for the big opportunities
- 19. So what doTelcos have to do to… 1) Recognize the changes that have happened 2) Identify the changes about to happen 3) Look for the big opportunities 4) Change the business model
- 20. …and stop askingreally dumb questions!
- 21. …and stop askingreally dumb questions! - How much bandwidth do we need?
- 22. …and stop askingreally dumb questions! - How much bandwidth do we need? - What will people do with it?
- 23. …and stop askingreally dumb questions! - How much bandwidth do we need? - What will people do with it? - What are the killer applications?
- 24. …and stop askingreally dumb questions! - How much bandwidth do we need? - What will people do with it? - What are the killer applications? - Can’t we do it all with wireless anyway?
- 25. …and stop askingreally dumb questions! - How much bandwidth do we need? - What will people do with it? - What are the killer applications? - Can’t we do it all with wireless anyway? - Haven’t we invested in too much fiber?
- 26. …and stop makingreally dumb assumptions!
- 27. …and stop makingreally dumb assumptions! - Customer use/need is asymmetric!
- 28. …and stop makingreally dumb assumptions! - Customer use/need is asymmetric! - Customers will pay for connectivity!
- 29. …and stop makingreally dumb assumptions! - Customer use/need is asymmetric! - Customers will pay for connectivity! - Network use can be controlled!
- 30. …and stop makingreally dumb assumptions! - Customer use/need is asymmetric! - Customers will pay for connectivity! - Network use can be controlled! - Content can be controlled!
- 31. …and stop makingreally dumb assumptions! - Customer use/need is asymmetric! - Customers will pay for connectivity! - Network use can be controlled! - Content can be controlled! - Maximum penetration is 100%!
- 32. …and stop makingreally dumb assumptions! - Customer use/need is asymmetric! - Customers will pay for connectivity! - Network use can be controlled! - Content can be controlled! - Maximum penetration is 100%! - Government/Regulators understand !!!!
- 33. Everything moving tothe edge? Networks get dumber as the periphery is getting smarter. Almost everything can be done better at the periphery rather than in the core!
- 34. Fundamental threats &opportunities Voice Services: Could be killed by VOIP the Skype model Network: Could be by-passed by wireless WiFi, WiMax, et al Network Services: Anyone can provide netcos have little advantage
- 35. Fundamental threats &opportunities Equipment: PCs + Laptops >> appliances IT Dept unnecessary? Security: Users more savvy & effective Security Dept unnecessary? Provision: Employees provide their own IT Companies lose control?
- 36. From Telco Tesco/ Carrefour Monopoly 22% Markets Profit Margin Competitive 6% Markets 2% Retail Regime - hard nosed & hot!
- 37. Competitors are coming fromall directions… …with new and unusual business models..
- 38. The Web 2.0clock is ticking…. • Mobility • Symmetry • More bandwidth
- 39. What is Web2.0? Recent 1000 people survey: * 13% didn‘t know what it was * 87% said they knew what it was but, nearly everybody came up with a different description
- 40. Don’t worry… Tim Berners Lee doesn’t know either It seems to be a term coined by Tim O’Reilly in 2004
- 41. What Web 2.0?might be…
- 42. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global:
- 43. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence
- 44. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base
- 45. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium
- 46. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium Connecting all:
- 47. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium Connecting all: * People
- 48. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium Connecting all: * People * Devices
- 49. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium Connecting all: * People * Devices * Things
- 50. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium Connecting all: * People * Devices Fixed and mobile * Things
- 51. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium Connecting all: * People * Devices Fixed and mobile * Things
- 52. What Web 2.0?might be… A distributed & global: * Intelligence * knowledge base * communal working medium The intelligent web…harnessing collective Connecting all: data, information, knowledge & intelligence * People * Devices Fixed and mobile * Things
- 53. Most critically… * Information * Knowledge * Wisdom All move to the edge…& become mobile!
- 54. So who isin pole position to satisfy this growing need?
- 55. Future Competition?? Competition changing market and customer expectations Internet Search Google.com IM/VOIP Google Talk Google Base Convergence WiFi Free WiFi IT portal ICT GoogleBox services WiFi Customer VOIP TV/Vision BlackBox Ad Growth VOIP WiFi Fixed - Mobile Fusion Broadband PSTN POTS/2.5/3G Mobile 2005 2007 2008 2009
- 56. We can expectto see more: - Device variants Clients - OS variants - Applications - Mobility - Churn Thinner & smarter clients give us an almost natural solution
- 57. Everything is becominga commodity… •Profits squeezed •Margins eroded •More competition •Fickle customers This will automatically lead to consolidation - more M&A activity
- 58. Broadband perception Telco MarketingModel Customer Experience
- 59. What should webe doing? - Move to all IP networks - Get out of billing - or get into banking - Move to symmetric broadband - Start the migration to >100Mbit/s - Roll out VOIP - Reduce the number of net nodes by >90% - Drastically reduce staffing - Introduce new services - hit the competition - Buy up ISPs - Change the business model
- 60. Go with thelatest, most efficient tech, to…realize greater efficiency & savings, & even greater effectiveness!
- 62. Stop installing copperand roll out optical fibre everywhere!
- 63. So, how in1986 did FTTH cost in?
- 64. So, how in1986 did FTTH cost in? Not by simple minded upfront costing!
- 65. So, how in1986 did FTTH cost in? Not by simple minded upfront costing! But by whole life costing… by taking advantage of every aspect of fiber!
- 66. Costing in forFTTH …
- 67. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults
- 68. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults
- 69. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work
- 70. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work 4) Fibre reach removes electronics
- 71. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work 4) Fibre reach removes electronics 5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90%
- 72. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work 4) Fibre reach removes electronics 5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90% 6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs
- 73. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work 4) Fibre reach removes electronics 5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90% 6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs 7) Energy costs reduced by >50%
- 74. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work 4) Fibre reach removes electronics 5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90% 6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs 7) Energy costs reduced by >50% 8) Staffing reduced by > 80%
- 75. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work 4) Fibre reach removes electronics 5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90% 6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs 7) Energy costs reduced by >50% 8) Staffing reduced by > 80% 9) Lead, copper & plastic recovered = $$ income
- 76. Costing in forFTTH … 1) Water ingress in copper ~ 50% of faults 2) Employees in network ~ 25% of faults 3) Remote routing of fiber saves ~ 95% work 4) Fibre reach removes electronics 5) Switch nodes/building stock reduced >90% 6) Reduced OSS & BSS systems & costs 7) Energy costs reduced by >50% 8) Staffing reduced by > 80% 9) Lead, copper & plastic recovered = $$ income 10)Year-on-year OPEX fall with new tech
- 77. The worst thingwe could do? Continue to do what we have always done, because we will continue to get what we have always got….
- 78.
- 79. BIG predictions… Positioning systems>> Communications
- 80. BIG predictions… Positioning systems>> Communications SensorNets >> All Nets
- 81. BIG predictions… Positioning systems>> Communications SensorNets >> All Nets PodCasting >> TV & Radio
- 82. BIG predictions… Positioning systems>> Communications SensorNets >> All Nets PodCasting >> TV & Radio Thin Clients >> Thick Clients
- 83. BIG predictions… Positioning systems>> Communications SensorNets >> All Nets PodCasting >> TV & Radio Thin Clients >> Thick Clients Home Creativity >> Office Creativity
- 84. BIG predictions… Positioning systems>> Communications SensorNets >> All Nets PodCasting >> TV & Radio Thin Clients >> Thick Clients Home Creativity >> Office Creativity Robots >> People
- 85. BIG predictions… Positioning systems>> Communications SensorNets >> All Nets PodCasting >> TV & Radio Thin Clients >> Thick Clients Home Creativity >> Office Creativity Robots >> People Machine Decisions >> People Decisions
- 86. A world ofopportunity & risk…. Thank you, cochrane.org.uk ca-global.org COCHRANE a s s o c i a t e s
Editor's Notes
- #10 Over roughly 50 years, we have seen a series of new classes of computers emerge. Each had its collection of technological drivers &#x2013; not just a specific breakthrough but a confluence of technological advances. If we were to call out one thing it would be integration. As more capability can be squeezed into a certain size/weight/power &#x2013; suddenly just when the previous class is at full strength an entirely new kind of system emerges. With it, a whole new class of applications. Purposes for which we didn&#x2019;t even think computers were good for. What is seldom observed is that each is smaller than the one before, more intimately tied into our lives, and greater in number. Today, all the hype is about internet cell-phones and PDAs. However, you are just about to see a new class emerge. This one will be very different. It will be smaller and more numerous, but instead of keyboards and displays, it will be connected to the physical world. These are devices that we build today off the shelf. This is where we are in the lab.
- #38 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #39 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #40 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #41 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #42 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #43 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #44 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #45 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #46 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #47 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little
- #48 In Gartner&#x2018;s &#x201C;2006 Emerging Technologies Hype Cycle&#x201D;, Web 2.0 was selected as one of the top key technologies over the coming ten years. What Web 2.0 actually stands for seems very unclear. When Basecamp asked 1000 of their customers what Web 2.0 meant to them: 13% answered that they didn&#x2018;t know what it was 87% who answered yes on the question, nearly everybody came up with a different descriptionSource: Arthur D. Little