We are all working harder and harder, and many of us have reached our limit. Giving us a faster more powerful laptop might make a marginal gain, and faster broadband complemented by smarter search engines might add a few more percentage points to our productivity, but the big ITC gains have been won. We have become the limiters of work output and not our technology. The technology now waits for us and not the other way around. To make the next leap in productivity and creativity we need help – specifically, we need machine help! Men and women alike need a third intelligence – a new way of thinking – a new perspective – and a new route to problem solving and creativity. So where will it com from, or in other words, why is my laptop, PC, Pad, Tablet so dumb? Even with Moore's Law continuing at it's present rate or accelerating, true machine intelligence will remain largely embedded in our networks. The good news is; it will soon be available as a commercial service in The Cloud. Much later, it is likely to appear in our devices to perform specific tasks related to our work, health, life and leasure. In both cases the primary key is sensors, sensor networks, and adaptability of software and hardware.

1. Why isn’t
my laptop
Intelligent?
Peter Cochrane
cochrane.org.uk
ca-global.org
COCHRANE
a s s o c i a t e s
Friday, 16 March 12

2. It has an abundance of:
- processing power
- memory
- RAM
- network access
- WWW information
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3. But it acts dumb and
doesn’t:
- learn my habits
- anticipate my needs
- correct my errors
- learn from mistakes
- monitor me and my life
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4. But why even as the
question ?
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5. We cannot work any
faster or any harder -
we have reached the
end of the line ?
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6. We a r e n o w t h e
ultimate limiter and
slow down mechanism
in a networked world
we have created ?
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7. Not all that helpful !
38,700,000
14,600,000
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8. Muscle amplifier
Brain amplifier
Intellect amplifier
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9. We face a tide complexity,
non-linearity & chaos... and
biologically we are not going
to get any smarter...
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10. We have no general
math or theoretical
framework to fall
back on...
...that can cope with the
problems we face
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11. And we live at a time
of greater achievement
and creativity than any
other...
...at no time in the past has
humanity discovered, understood
or created so much...
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12. Just a small
selection
of things we really
don’t understand
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13. In order to move on
we need a new
approach...
...help from new intelligences that
see the world from a different
perspective...
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14. Old systems & methods
are extremely unlikely to
be able to help...or cope
with the demands and
changes to come...
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15. During the reformation
eve r y t h i n g b e c a m e
stove-piped...initially
t h i s b ro u g h t h u g e
benefit, but it is now a
major inhibitor...
...there is only science...
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16. So what is the state of
play with Ar tificial
Intelligence today...
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17. And are machines
really capable of
creativity...
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18. IBM - Deep Blue 1972
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19. NASA Planetary Walker - 2002
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20. Machines
that design
machines
today...
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21. IBM - Watson 2010
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22. Life and death decisions
are a fact of life...
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23. But machines are now assuming new levels of
responsibility in medicine...
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24. To say the least this
poses some ver y
serious issues...
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25. So what do
we know of
Intelligence ?
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26. Stanley Kubrick
&
Arthur C Clarke
1968
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27. Dave has a bit of a problem with HAL...
- “Open the pod bay doors HAL”
- “Sorry Dave, I can’t do that”
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28. Machines do make mistakes, but so do
we...and very often they go hand in hand,
embedded in the root of software...
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29. The generic question
we keep asking:
Where is HAL 9000 ?
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30. 1968
2000
Where is he ?
2011
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31. Three big questions
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32. Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
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33. Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
Will I be here in 2025 ?
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34. Three big questions
Will Hal be here in 2025 ?
Will I be here in 2025 ?
Will my computer be proud of me before I die ?
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35. AI plays better games than us !
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36. AI outsmarts us on knowledge
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37. AI control a lot of our
industrial process to
feed, clothe, keep us
warm and transport
us...
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38. AI is now bringing a
new level of creativity
and problem solving
to the party...
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39. BUT aren’t we just talking
machines running algorithms ?
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40. The big problem is that we cannot
describe, quantify or measure
intelligence?
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41. >> 150 published definitions ??
AND - IQ Tests are worthless ??
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42. Internet Super
MIP/s Computer
Computing Power
Intelligence Level
PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
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43. The singularity
priesthood 2035 !
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44. I got a call from a
defence company
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45. How do we
compare
systems ?
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46. P.M
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47. No P or M !
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48. No P or M !
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49. Scanning long term
comatose patients of
10 years...considered to
be totally vegetative !
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50. Ask them to think
about playing
tennis...
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51. For >60% the brain
activity is the same
as for you and I...
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52. They are entombed
in meat space...
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53. Sensors S =0 no intelligence
Actuators A =0 no intelligence
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54. Axiom
Intelligence is Entropic
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55. compare
A 30 second tutorial !
systems ?
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56. So starting with a simple model of this form...
Sensors Processor
S P1
System Memory
Environs M
Actuator Processor
A P2
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57. And building the complexity a layer at a time...
Processor Memory
Sensors
1 ShortTerm
System
Environs
Processor Memory
Actuator
2 LongTerm
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58. Followed by mathematical
juggling and normalisation,
liberties, crimes, & of course
engineering licence...
Ic ~ k log2[1 + K.A.S ( 1 + P.M )]
S = Sensor, A = Actuator, P = Processor, M = Memory
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59. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
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60. So why isn’t my laptop intelligent?
How about:
- sensors?
- adaptability?
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61. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
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62. But we are rolling out intelligent sensors!
And our machines will see, hear, smell….
…detect and communicate in a way and
at a rate we cannot!
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63. Intelligence
MIP/s Level
Estimates of
Computing Power
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
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64. Intelligence
MIP/s Level
Estimates of
Computing Power
Artificial
Intelligence
Internet PC
1960 70 80 90 2000 10
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65. The good news !
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66. Mobile Sensors and Actuators
by the Bn !
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67. Google , IBM are
moving into this
space!
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68. And it will arrive on our
phones, tablets, pads,
laptops via The Cloud...
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69. ca-global.org
cochrane.org.uk
Thank You
COCHRANE
And the day can’t
a s s o c i a t e s
come quick enough!
Friday, 16 March 12