Monday 24th August 2015 saw one of the biggest stock market crashes in China. St. James's Place published a special bulletin to let their investors know to stay clam and that the incident wasn't unexpected. This bulletin contains some great advice.
The document discusses how growing acceptance of aggressive fiscal policy could support gold prices over the long term. It notes that government deficits have increased substantially during the pandemic, distributing funds more widely than in previous crises. This may boost inflation and set a precedent for larger responses that increase debt. While rising bond yields recently pressured gold, real yields remain low and inflation expectations are up, suggesting the Fed may act to curb rates, supporting gold. The document analyzes factors that could cause rates and gold prices to rise or fall in the near term.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
Advice for the Wise - August 2015
• The investor behaviour, bordering on split personality is probably why it is apt to call our times ‘interesting
• Diversification is not merely ‘sensible’, it is an absolute must
• Equity markets were broadly range bound for the month of July; with mid caps showing better strength compared to large cap stocks.
• Global markets got a scare from plummeting Chinese stocks as large number of local investors had to unwind their leveraged positions on account of margin calls getting triggered.
• The rate-cut cycle seems certain and one can anticipate interest rates to converge with the inflation rate in next 5-6 quarters
The document discusses the Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates and the impact on investments. It states that higher rates would signal economic strength and a return to normal rates after the Great Recession. While rates rising may cause initial volatility, historically the stock market has continued to perform well over longer periods as the economy strengthens. The document recommends staying invested in equities, as rates rising from very low levels are unlikely to significantly slow economic growth. Large cap stocks, international equities, and sectors like technology, finance and healthcare tend to perform well when rates rise.
The document provides an economic outlook report for September 2010 by Mike Lathigee, Chairman and CEO of Alliance Investment Solutions. The summary is:
1) The economy is experiencing extreme uncertainty and it is difficult to determine if it is improving or declining. Cash flow from conservative, low-risk investments is the focus.
2) Real estate appreciation is not expected in the near future. Cash flow from real estate is recommended over appreciation-based investments.
3) The stock market uncertainty is due to mixed economic indicators like high unemployment and weak corporate earnings. Government bonds have increased in demand despite low returns.
4) Emerging markets are seeing strong growth while most developed economies are growing slower than the US
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document discusses how growing acceptance of aggressive fiscal policy could support gold prices over the long term. It notes that government deficits have increased substantially during the pandemic, distributing funds more widely than in previous crises. This may boost inflation and set a precedent for larger responses that increase debt. While rising bond yields recently pressured gold, real yields remain low and inflation expectations are up, suggesting the Fed may act to curb rates, supporting gold. The document analyzes factors that could cause rates and gold prices to rise or fall in the near term.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth ManagementTony Nunes
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
Advice for the Wise - August 2015
• The investor behaviour, bordering on split personality is probably why it is apt to call our times ‘interesting
• Diversification is not merely ‘sensible’, it is an absolute must
• Equity markets were broadly range bound for the month of July; with mid caps showing better strength compared to large cap stocks.
• Global markets got a scare from plummeting Chinese stocks as large number of local investors had to unwind their leveraged positions on account of margin calls getting triggered.
• The rate-cut cycle seems certain and one can anticipate interest rates to converge with the inflation rate in next 5-6 quarters
The document discusses the Federal Reserve potentially raising interest rates and the impact on investments. It states that higher rates would signal economic strength and a return to normal rates after the Great Recession. While rates rising may cause initial volatility, historically the stock market has continued to perform well over longer periods as the economy strengthens. The document recommends staying invested in equities, as rates rising from very low levels are unlikely to significantly slow economic growth. Large cap stocks, international equities, and sectors like technology, finance and healthcare tend to perform well when rates rise.
The document provides an economic outlook report for September 2010 by Mike Lathigee, Chairman and CEO of Alliance Investment Solutions. The summary is:
1) The economy is experiencing extreme uncertainty and it is difficult to determine if it is improving or declining. Cash flow from conservative, low-risk investments is the focus.
2) Real estate appreciation is not expected in the near future. Cash flow from real estate is recommended over appreciation-based investments.
3) The stock market uncertainty is due to mixed economic indicators like high unemployment and weak corporate earnings. Government bonds have increased in demand despite low returns.
4) Emerging markets are seeing strong growth while most developed economies are growing slower than the US
The portfolio manager discusses the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund. They reiterate their commitment to maximizing value in the portfolio and returning capital to shareholders in a timely manner. Eight of the top ten holdings have restructured in the past two years, reducing debt levels. The manager believes the portfolio contains significant embedded value that will be realized as market conditions normalize and corporate events occur. They intend to provide transparency to shareholders through monthly fact sheets and quarterly commentary on the fund's website. The manager also discusses recent volatility in the high yield and distressed debt markets, noting that credit spreads spiked in 2015 but it is unclear if this will lead to recession or opportunity.
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
The document discusses why monetary policy has become less effective at stimulating growth and inflation. A decade of unprecedented monetary easing by central banks has led to disappointing economic outcomes, with unsatisfactory growth, excess capacity, and below-target inflation. Several factors have weakened the transmission of monetary policy, including less responsive consumption and investment to low interest rates, rising asset prices mainly benefiting wealthy groups less likely to spend, and unchanging inflation expectations. Further, when all major central banks ease simultaneously, none benefits from a weaker currency. Policy errors have also damaged central bank credibility over time. The balance has tipped toward monetary policy impotency, as obstacles now outweigh the potency of central bank tools.
The document analyzes whether investors can outperform the market by reacting to positive or negative earnings surprises alone. It finds that while earnings surprises previously helped generate returns, that correlation disappeared after 2000 likely due to regulations that leveled the playing field for information access. Specifically, it shows positive earnings surprises do not lead to subsequent outperformance, and negative surprises do not cause underperformance, for both large-cap and small-cap stocks in recent years. The document concludes earnings surprises alone are not a reliable basis for trading and investing decisions.
ClearPath Investment Perspectives - Nov 17 2014bcdconna
The document is a weekly investment newsletter from ClearPath Capital Partners dated November 17, 2014. It provides an overview of the US and global economic outlooks, recent market performance, and commentary on stocks, bonds, and consumer spending. Global GDP and inflation are forecast to increase in 2014 and 2015. US GDP is expected to grow 2.9% in 2014 and stock markets posted gains last week, with the S&P 500 up 7.21% for the month. Retail sales rose slightly in October and lower gas prices are expected to boost consumer spending.
This document provides an agenda and presentation materials for an investment seminar. The agenda includes a review of the first half of 2015, factors that drove market performance, an overview of the US economy, and strategies for volatile markets. The presentation materials provide data and analysis on topics like 2015 market forecasts, the impact of potential federal reserve interest rate hikes, international economic conditions, and tips for individual investors to tune out emotion and stay focused on their long-term goals in uncertain markets.
The document discusses potential inflation scenarios and their implications for gold prices. It analyzes the likelihood of hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, and a return to previous low inflation levels. The author argues that stagflation, with high inflation and slowing GDP growth, poses the greatest risk and would be most positive for gold. While the Fed expects current high inflation to be temporary, money supply and debt increases make low pre-pandemic inflation unlikely. Slowing growth projections for 2022 could produce the stagflation scenario gold performs well in.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
The document provides commentary on recent market movements. It notes that while mainstream markets like the S&P 500 and FTSE All Share saw strong gains in 2017, there has been some speculation of an impending correction. Last week, bond markets fell after the US announced increased federal borrowing and payroll data pointed to possible higher interest rates, leading to some profit taking in equities markets. However, the committee believes the overreaction will reverse over time as worldwide economic fundamentals remain positive, and maintaining a diversified approach will help navigate market volatility.
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document provides an economic and stock market outlook for 2019 from Robert W. Baird & Co. It discusses that stock market conditions are likely to improve in the second half of 2019 as a new cyclical bull market emerges. It notes that Federal Reserve policy will shift toward data dependency as interest rates approach a neutral level. Economic growth is expected to slow but domestic recession risk remains minimal, and unexpected productivity growth could provide a tailwind. Earnings growth may have peaked but expectations could drift higher with signs of global recovery. Bond yields are not likely to rise significantly absent renewed inflation or improved global conditions.
The document discusses the declining value of the US dollar relative to other currencies like the Australian dollar, euro, and yen. Investors have lost confidence in the US dollar due to low interest rates and returns. As a result, the US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against other major currencies. This has benefited Australia's currency, the Australian dollar, which has risen over 30% against the US dollar this year. However, the rising Australian dollar is causing pain for Australian exporters and companies with foreign earnings. There is debate around how far the US dollar could continue to fall.
President Trump's election victory surprised markets. Interest rates rose sharply in response as markets anticipated less regulation, lower taxes, and stronger economic growth under Trump. However, nearly all forecasts predict more modest GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2017 rather than the 4% growth suggested by Trump. The future remains uncertain as Trump frequently tweets and singles out companies. Interest rates may soften in the first quarter but end the year only modestly higher than the start of 2017.
The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
This document summarizes an investment outlook from Bill Gross discussing monetary policy and economic modeling. It discusses how central banks have continued quantitative easing and bond purchases in an attempt to stimulate economies, distorting capitalism. It also argues that historical models showing recessions coinciding with flat yield curves may not apply in today's highly leveraged environment, and that economies are more sensitive to small increases in short term rates now. The author asserts that yield curves may need to flatten less from current levels to potentially signal an economic reversal given low interest rates.
- The Federal Reserve announced it would sell short-term Treasury securities and buy longer-term securities to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which succeeded in lowering bond yields. However, the stock market declined 6.4% as fears grew of a Greek default and slowing global economic growth.
- While price appreciation gets more attention, dividends have accounted for about one-third of stock market returns over 80 years and allowed investors to benefit in both rising and falling markets. Receiving and reinvesting dividends added an average of 2.3% annually to S&P 500 returns over the past decade.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
LBS Asset Allocation Model – September Update:
Global economic data remained robust in August and continue to point to solid, broad-based and synchronized economic expansion. Financial conditions also remain easy and still provide a supportive environment for economic growth.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
I'm not getting a resolution with LinkedIn, in connection with a member who keeps inviting/trolling me. Here is the conversation thread to date. And it's still ongoing.
This document lists various websites related to design, trends, comics, and advertising. Some of the sites mentioned include trendsnow.net for design trends, yankodesign.com for product design, designboom.com for architecture and design news, behance.net for showcasing creative projects, and adsoftheworld.com for advertising campaigns. Many of the sites focus on visual content across different creative industries.
BlackRock: 2014 Outlook The List - What to Know, What to DoEcon Matters
The document provides a mid-year update on the 2014 outlook for various asset classes and investment themes. It notes that stocks have outperformed bonds so far in 2014 and are on pace for mid to upper single digit returns by year-end. It maintains the views that economic growth will continue improving but remain below trend, and that interest rates will trend upward modestly in the second half of the year. Key investment themes to seek growth while managing volatility, find income but don't overreach, and rethink bonds also remain intact.
The document discusses why monetary policy has become less effective at stimulating growth and inflation. A decade of unprecedented monetary easing by central banks has led to disappointing economic outcomes, with unsatisfactory growth, excess capacity, and below-target inflation. Several factors have weakened the transmission of monetary policy, including less responsive consumption and investment to low interest rates, rising asset prices mainly benefiting wealthy groups less likely to spend, and unchanging inflation expectations. Further, when all major central banks ease simultaneously, none benefits from a weaker currency. Policy errors have also damaged central bank credibility over time. The balance has tipped toward monetary policy impotency, as obstacles now outweigh the potency of central bank tools.
The document analyzes whether investors can outperform the market by reacting to positive or negative earnings surprises alone. It finds that while earnings surprises previously helped generate returns, that correlation disappeared after 2000 likely due to regulations that leveled the playing field for information access. Specifically, it shows positive earnings surprises do not lead to subsequent outperformance, and negative surprises do not cause underperformance, for both large-cap and small-cap stocks in recent years. The document concludes earnings surprises alone are not a reliable basis for trading and investing decisions.
ClearPath Investment Perspectives - Nov 17 2014bcdconna
The document is a weekly investment newsletter from ClearPath Capital Partners dated November 17, 2014. It provides an overview of the US and global economic outlooks, recent market performance, and commentary on stocks, bonds, and consumer spending. Global GDP and inflation are forecast to increase in 2014 and 2015. US GDP is expected to grow 2.9% in 2014 and stock markets posted gains last week, with the S&P 500 up 7.21% for the month. Retail sales rose slightly in October and lower gas prices are expected to boost consumer spending.
This document provides an agenda and presentation materials for an investment seminar. The agenda includes a review of the first half of 2015, factors that drove market performance, an overview of the US economy, and strategies for volatile markets. The presentation materials provide data and analysis on topics like 2015 market forecasts, the impact of potential federal reserve interest rate hikes, international economic conditions, and tips for individual investors to tune out emotion and stay focused on their long-term goals in uncertain markets.
The document discusses potential inflation scenarios and their implications for gold prices. It analyzes the likelihood of hyperinflation, deflation, stagflation, and a return to previous low inflation levels. The author argues that stagflation, with high inflation and slowing GDP growth, poses the greatest risk and would be most positive for gold. While the Fed expects current high inflation to be temporary, money supply and debt increases make low pre-pandemic inflation unlikely. Slowing growth projections for 2022 could produce the stagflation scenario gold performs well in.
Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global CIO, analyzes global macroeconomic trends most likely to shape the investment environment in 10 charts.
The document provides commentary on recent market movements. It notes that while mainstream markets like the S&P 500 and FTSE All Share saw strong gains in 2017, there has been some speculation of an impending correction. Last week, bond markets fell after the US announced increased federal borrowing and payroll data pointed to possible higher interest rates, leading to some profit taking in equities markets. However, the committee believes the overreaction will reverse over time as worldwide economic fundamentals remain positive, and maintaining a diversified approach will help navigate market volatility.
Gold may rise as market euphoria about economic recovery ends. While strong GDP growth is expected in the short term due to base effects and stimulus, optimism may be exaggerated, unemployment remains elevated, and risks remain from virus variants. Inflation is already above the Fed's 2% target according to official data, and likely even higher using alternative measures, but the Fed says price increases will be temporary. However, inflation could be more persistent given money supply increases, government spending, and pent-up demand as the economy reopens. Higher inflation would be bullish for gold as an inflation hedge.
The document provides an economic and stock market outlook for 2019 from Robert W. Baird & Co. It discusses that stock market conditions are likely to improve in the second half of 2019 as a new cyclical bull market emerges. It notes that Federal Reserve policy will shift toward data dependency as interest rates approach a neutral level. Economic growth is expected to slow but domestic recession risk remains minimal, and unexpected productivity growth could provide a tailwind. Earnings growth may have peaked but expectations could drift higher with signs of global recovery. Bond yields are not likely to rise significantly absent renewed inflation or improved global conditions.
The document discusses the declining value of the US dollar relative to other currencies like the Australian dollar, euro, and yen. Investors have lost confidence in the US dollar due to low interest rates and returns. As a result, the US dollar has fallen to multi-year lows against other major currencies. This has benefited Australia's currency, the Australian dollar, which has risen over 30% against the US dollar this year. However, the rising Australian dollar is causing pain for Australian exporters and companies with foreign earnings. There is debate around how far the US dollar could continue to fall.
President Trump's election victory surprised markets. Interest rates rose sharply in response as markets anticipated less regulation, lower taxes, and stronger economic growth under Trump. However, nearly all forecasts predict more modest GDP growth of around 2.3% in 2017 rather than the 4% growth suggested by Trump. The future remains uncertain as Trump frequently tweets and singles out companies. Interest rates may soften in the first quarter but end the year only modestly higher than the start of 2017.
The document discusses contrarian investing and provides examples from history. It notes that investors often make the mistake of piling into popular trades, as seen during the tech bubble, while fortunes have been made by remaining calm during crises. Contrarian investing involves taking positions that are opposite the prevailing sentiment. The document examines the tech bubble crash as an example of when contrarian positions were successful. It also identifies some potential contrarian opportunities today in international stocks and high-yielding securities due to possible overvaluations.
The document discusses whether the U.S. economy has achieved "escape velocity," which refers to a self-sustaining economic recovery that allows the Fed to end its bond purchase program. It notes that many economists believe the U.S. will reach escape velocity in 2014 due to broad economic strength and reduced fiscal drag. However, inflation remains below the Fed's target and further tapering will depend on economic data. The document also examines factors like China's economic transition and the implications for commodities.
This document summarizes an investment outlook from Bill Gross discussing monetary policy and economic modeling. It discusses how central banks have continued quantitative easing and bond purchases in an attempt to stimulate economies, distorting capitalism. It also argues that historical models showing recessions coinciding with flat yield curves may not apply in today's highly leveraged environment, and that economies are more sensitive to small increases in short term rates now. The author asserts that yield curves may need to flatten less from current levels to potentially signal an economic reversal given low interest rates.
- The Federal Reserve announced it would sell short-term Treasury securities and buy longer-term securities to lower interest rates and stimulate the economy, which succeeded in lowering bond yields. However, the stock market declined 6.4% as fears grew of a Greek default and slowing global economic growth.
- While price appreciation gets more attention, dividends have accounted for about one-third of stock market returns over 80 years and allowed investors to benefit in both rising and falling markets. Receiving and reinvesting dividends added an average of 2.3% annually to S&P 500 returns over the past decade.
Laurentian Bank Securities - Economic Research and Strategy Mark MacIsaac
LBS Asset Allocation Model – September Update:
Global economic data remained robust in August and continue to point to solid, broad-based and synchronized economic expansion. Financial conditions also remain easy and still provide a supportive environment for economic growth.
Following an impressive bounce back from February lows, the durability of the current bull market remains suspect. The benefits of the recent rally appear limited to the large cap, defensive sectors of the market. In prior market cycles, this has portended that the latter stages of a bull market are fast approaching and as such, caution is warranted.
I'm not getting a resolution with LinkedIn, in connection with a member who keeps inviting/trolling me. Here is the conversation thread to date. And it's still ongoing.
This document lists various websites related to design, trends, comics, and advertising. Some of the sites mentioned include trendsnow.net for design trends, yankodesign.com for product design, designboom.com for architecture and design news, behance.net for showcasing creative projects, and adsoftheworld.com for advertising campaigns. Many of the sites focus on visual content across different creative industries.
Being a modern seller means changing years of conditioned behaviour and go back to basics. The foundation of sales are brand, reputation and relationships. Social Selling is taking hold, but there are a lot of misunderstood teachings out there. I have kept it really simple and shared a few nuggets, I have picked up along the way. By no means is this all my own stuff and although I can't remember who mentioned what, I do wish to give credit to many amazing minds involved in teaching Social Selling. This is for you!
The document lists 6 reasons why people forget others they meet: 1) Not listening when the other person talks about themselves and instead rehearsing your own pitch. 2) Waiting too long to connect with them on LinkedIn which causes forgetting who they are. 3) Not having a system to follow up with a video call. 4) Not making time to acknowledge when they accept your LinkedIn connection request. 5) Not reading their LinkedIn profile to remind yourself about them. 6) No further details provided. The document encourages visiting the author's website for more tips on using LinkedIn effectively.
Workplace ethics refers to how employees conduct themselves on the job. Some key aspects of workplace ethics include following company policies and the law, being able to "sleep at night" with your decisions, and doing your fair share of work. Surveys show that many workers engage in unethical behaviors like cutting corners, lying, or taking credit for others' work. To maintain strong ethics, workers should set standards around principles like trust, honesty, and avoiding conflicts of interest. Employers value characteristics like credibility, responsibility, flexibility, and being a team player. The overall focus should be on constantly improving one's work and ethical conduct.
Loads of people are concerned that they can not view their connections or someone else's connections in the way they were able to on LinkedIn. There are actually 4 different ways of viewing connections, including the old fashioned way. In this slide presentation I show you how.
Want to reduce LinkedIn Emails? LinkedIn sends us many emails. As part of my tutorial on http://stayingaliveuk.com/blog, I detail in this slideshare how many different emails you will be receiving from LinkedIn on a regular basis.
This document discusses the benefits of physical fitness, including reducing the risk of chronic diseases, preventing weight gain, promoting better sleep and happiness, strengthening the heart and lungs, and reducing the risk of death. It also provides tips for making physical fitness easier, such as going on a daily jog, using fitness videos 3 times a week, dancing, playing with children or friends, swimming, joining a recreation league or gym, and doing yoga. The overall message is that regular physical activity has wide-ranging health benefits and can be incorporated into daily life through low-cost activities.
Your LinkedIn is about to be updated. Familiarise yourself with the new look and where things have relocated to. Some things will have gone, but instead we are getting a more streamlined and better user interface, very akin to the LinkedIn mobile app.
The document provides an investment weekly market update from Goodbody Wealth Management. It discusses recent bond market volatility and recommends a short-duration bond strategy. It also summarizes the results of the UK election and its positive impact on reducing political uncertainty. Additionally, it comments on recent easing measures by China's central bank and remaining cautious on emerging markets due to China's economic performance.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
THIRD QUARTER 2015 RETROSPECTIVE AND PROSPECTIVE We’ve Seen This Movie BeforeRobert Champion
Global markets remained in turmoil as concerns regarding the global economy persisted. While much of the international focus was centred around the slowing economy in China, there were few places that investors could hide as even cash, paying little to negative interest in some parts of the world, was a relative winner in the quarter.
The report summarizes the economic outlook from an investment firm. It finds that equity markets have risen substantially in the last six months and the economic trends currently support maintaining a pro-cyclical investment stance. However, inflation is expected to rise in coming years which may prompt interest rate hikes, suggesting caution for bonds. The US economy is ahead of others in deleveraging but credit is expanding again; overseas the European debt crisis remains unresolved and emerging markets face domestic challenges.
The Rally At Six Months - SEI CommentaryRlevinsohn
The report summarizes the economic outlook from the Global Portfolio Strategies Group. It finds that equity markets have risen substantially in the last six months and the group is maintaining a pro-cyclical stance. It also notes that current economic policies are laying the groundwork for higher inflation and the Federal Reserve will likely tighten policy as unemployment falls below 7%. Geopolitical risks from Europe and emerging markets also warrant caution.
The report summarizes the economic outlook from the Global Portfolio Strategies Group. It finds that equity markets have risen substantially in the last six months and the group is maintaining a pro-cyclical stance. It also notes that current economic policies are laying the groundwork for higher inflation and the Federal Reserve will likely tighten policy as unemployment falls below 7%. The report favors overweighting US equities over international equities and high-yield fixed income over investment-grade fixed income.
The report summarizes the economic outlook from the Global Portfolio Strategies Group. It finds that equity markets have risen substantially in the last six months and the group is maintaining a pro-cyclical stance. It also notes that current economic policies are laying the groundwork for higher inflation and the Federal Reserve will likely tighten policy as unemployment falls below 7%. The report favors overweighting US equities over international equities and high-yield fixed income over investment-grade fixed income.
The report summarizes the economic outlook from the Global Portfolio Strategies Group. It finds that equity markets have risen substantially in the last six months and the group is maintaining a pro-cyclical stance. It also notes that current economic policies are laying the groundwork for higher inflation and the Federal Reserve will likely tighten policy as unemployment falls below 7%. Geopolitical risks in Europe, particularly Greece and France, warrant close monitoring.
LBS Asset Allocation August Update - July 28, 2017Mark MacIsaac
Global economic data continues to show strong growth, but signs point to a peak in momentum. While US and Eurozone manufacturing surveys weakened, emerging market equities continue outperforming. Key indicators like flattening yield curves and disconnect between commodities and the US dollar suggest growth is likely decelerating. The document recommends slightly increasing exposure to emerging market equities and reducing underweight of other developed markets. It also recommends overweighting health care in the US and financials in Canada.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
- The document discusses the outlook for 2015, noting a return of volatility due to slowing global economic growth, a surging US dollar, and collapsing oil prices. This has led to fears of economic trouble globally.
- Central banks around the world are enacting monetary stimulus programs to promote growth and fight deflation in response to falling commodity prices and inflation. The ECB announced a large quantitative easing program.
- A strong US dollar and falling oil prices benefit US consumers but may weigh on business activity and profits. The US consumer accounts for 70% of the economy so 2015 may be better for Main Street than Wall Street.
Twenty-one years ago China officially devalued its currency and
the events following that eventually led to the Asian crisis. Last
month experienced a similar scare when the Chinese markets
took down the rest of the world with it after devaluating its
currency once again on 11th August 2015. In hindsight the
causality of this event has come into light. The main trigger
was the bursting of the Chinese stock market bubble last
month that triggered a huge sell off in the market. To add fuel
to the fire, the Yuan was devalued creating a contagion affect
leading to a global slowdown. The “Risk-Off” strategy made
global funds pull out money from emerging markets and move
to safer havens.
The re-alignment of commodities affected countries like
Australia, Malaysia, Brazil and Russia among others. Along with
this gold prices fell too, which was noticed in the fall in gold
futures in New York for four straight sessions, increasing gold’s
volatility. Crude was no exception to the fall. However it
showed improvements towards the end of the month after an
announcement by OPEC to come up with a plan to boost
prices. After a slump, U.S. markets rose after the release of the
GDP data and improved consumer confidence. Across the
ocean from US, European markets rose too on the back of
improvement in German business confidence. Globally markets
seemed to recover gradually towards the end of the month.
- Emerging markets have experienced weaker economic growth compared to developed markets in 2013.
- Emerging market equities have significantly underperformed developed market equities since 2010, with the underperformance accumulating prior to recent tapering talk.
- Within emerging markets, BRIC countries like Brazil, Russia, India, and China have particularly underperformed the broader emerging market universe.
Perspectives & Planning - Washington Trust Wealth Managementwash_trust
Here is the first edition of Perspectives & Planning, a quarterly newsletter written by Washington Trust Wealth Management experts, featuring an outlook on the current state of the economy and the financial markets, as well as insights on financial planning.
Through all the market traumas of recent years, the crises in Greece, slowdown scares in China, US political gridlock, the collapse in oil prices, the wars and the migrant flows, investors prepared to weather short-term volatility have seen handsome returns on developed-economy equities since the depths of the financial crisis in 2008, with EUR and USD investors seeing only one modestly down year in 2011. There has also been good performance from high yield and investment grade corporate bonds, the laggards (since 2011) being investments connected to commodities and emerging markets.
Our analysis, set out in this Outlook, suggests that 2016 may deliver a fairly similar pattern. Temporary traumas could emanate from Federal Reserve tightening, reduced bond liquidity, renewed growth scares in China or geopolitics, but behind these is an underlying picture of ongoing expansion. The global economy is neither pushed up against capacity limits nor facing severe slack (except for commodities and energy), banking systems are healthy and debt levels seem more amber than red. Rapid growth seems unlikely, given aging populations (bar Africa and India) and sharing economy technologies that do not generate much Gross Domestic Product, but sensibly-priced assets do not need a booming economy to generate reasonable returns. At the time of writing (in late 2015), high yield and investment grade credits have spreads just above their quarter-century averages, giving them scope to weather gradual Fed tightening. Developed equities have valuations somewhat above historic norms on a price-earnings basis, but not on a price-book basis, and operational leverage (especially in the Eurozone) and consolidating oil prices should allow earnings growth to move from last year's negatives into the mid- to high-single digits. In short, we think developed equities and credits are well placed for another year of reasonable returns, with the dollar likely to be strong again as the Fed leads the monetary cycle. As for emerging markets, and the commodities on which many depend, a convincing general recovery looks some time away, but there is scope for some to move ahead of the pack, as discussed in a special article.
Of course there can always be risks that are not visible and Fed tightening has a habit of teasing these out, although usually not within its first year. But, equally, there could be upside surprises, if the USA finally moves toward solutions on taxing repatriated corporate cash and infrastructure spending or, more simply, the signals of rising confidence already visible in US and European consumer surveys translate into faster spending. We trust our readers will find the Investment Outlook 2016 to be of considerable interest for the coming year.
The S&P 500 finished 2018 in negative territory for the first time since 2008, down -4.6% for the year. Volatility increased significantly across global markets as economic growth moderated and trade tensions rose. The CBOE Volatility Index increased 130% in 2018 compared to 78% in 2008, indicating a more turbulent decline. Investor unease over trade and monetary policy contributed to the rise in volatility, exemplified by an 8% market fall following the Federal Reserve's signal of slightly more aggressive rate hikes than expected in 2019.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
The document discusses panic selling that occurred in global stock markets on Monday in reaction to Russia's actions in Ukraine, and the subsequent rebound on Tuesday. It notes that panic selling is an emotional reaction rather than being based on fundamentals, and that past panic selling events have presented good buying opportunities as markets recovered. The document advocates that long-term investors can benefit from such volatility and sees panic selling events as opportunities to invest in equities.
« Market Perspectives » est notre revue mensuelle des marchés. Elle présente de la façon la plus synthétique possible :
- notre analyse des principaux faits marquants et indicateurs macro susceptibles de dessiner les marchés sur le mois.
- notre vision sur les différentes classes d’actifs
Cette revue sera continument enrichie avec nos indicateurs quantitatifs.
La plupart de nos analyses sont disponibles sur www.finlightresearch.com
Our monthly publication “Market Perspectives” presents a synthetic view of all the asset classes we cover.
The report is composed of six sections covering Macro, Equities, FI & credit, FX, Commodities and Alternatives.
Each section is preceded by a summary of our views on the related asset class.
Most of our publications are available on our web site www.finlightresearch.com
Markets coming to terms with Greek deal this week Hantec Markets
The weekly outlook document provides commentary on the macroeconomic environment and outlook for currencies, indices, and commodities. It summarizes that markets are relieved the Greek crisis is ending but that it highlighted issues in the Eurozone. US data and Janet Yellen's testimony will be key drivers this week. The report also notes that equity markets will watch US bank earnings reports and that commodities will remain sensitive to the US dollar and Chinese factors.
Similar to The Great Fall in China August 2015 - Special market bulletin St. James's Place (20)
Creatives have a number of challenges in creating creative, interesting and memorable content for their clients. Herein lies a video that will suggests a solution to these challenges.
Learn how when you apply storytelling as part of your personal brand your readers and viewers will engage with their whole brain in many different ways. #shareyourstory @stayingaliveuk
What can you do on LinkedIn in 20-minutes?
BOOK FREE VIA: http://bit.ly/Coffee27July2016
Wednesday, 27th July 2016 FROM 13:30 TO 16:00
The Pathway Group
Abington House
95 Abington Rd
Tyseley
Birmingham B25 8EP
Did Microsoft break Skype's password recovery process?
My journey with Skype in recovering my password and changing my email as detailed in my blog http://stayingaliveuk.com/blog
@stayingaliveuk
Consumers are now exposed to over 5,000 advertising messages daily and have powerful computers in their hands, allowing them to quickly evaluate websites. This new environment marks the "Age of Influence," where anyone can build an audience on social media to advocate for brands, build relationships, and create change, with brands now defined more by what consumers say about them to each other rather than traditional advertising messages.
The document discusses the benefits of exercise for both physical and mental health. It notes that regular exercise can reduce the risk of diseases like heart disease and diabetes, improve mood, and reduce feelings of stress and anxiety. The document recommends that adults get at least 150 minutes of moderate exercise or 75 minutes of vigorous exercise per week to gain these benefits.
New Visa Rules for Tourists and Students in Thailand | Amit Kakkar Easy VisaAmit Kakkar
Discover essential details about Thailand's recent visa policy changes, tailored for tourists and students. Amit Kakkar Easy Visa provides a comprehensive overview of new requirements, application processes, and tips to ensure a smooth transition for all travelers.
South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcriptynfqplhm
办理美国SDSU毕业证书制作南达科他州立大学假文凭定制Q微168899991做SDSU留信网教留服认证海牙认证改SDSU成绩单GPA做SDSU假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请南达科他州立大学South Dakota State University degree offer diploma Transcript
Economic Risk Factor Update: June 2024 [SlideShare]Commonwealth
May’s reports showed signs of continued economic growth, said Sam Millette, director, fixed income, in his latest Economic Risk Factor Update.
For more market updates, subscribe to The Independent Market Observer at https://blog.commonwealth.com/independent-market-observer.
Fabular Frames and the Four Ratio ProblemMajid Iqbal
Digital, interactive art showing the struggle of a society in providing for its present population while also saving planetary resources for future generations. Spread across several frames, the art is actually the rendering of real and speculative data. The stereographic projections change shape in response to prompts and provocations. Visitors interact with the model through speculative statements about how to increase savings across communities, regions, ecosystems and environments. Their fabulations combined with random noise, i.e. factors beyond control, have a dramatic effect on the societal transition. Things get better. Things get worse. The aim is to give visitors a new grasp and feel of the ongoing struggles in democracies around the world.
Stunning art in the small multiples format brings out the spatiotemporal nature of societal transitions, against backdrop issues such as energy, housing, waste, farmland and forest. In each frame we see hopeful and frightful interplays between spending and saving. Problems emerge when one of the two parts of the existential anaglyph rapidly shrinks like Arctic ice, as factors cross thresholds. Ecological wealth and intergenerational equity areFour at stake. Not enough spending could mean economic stress, social unrest and political conflict. Not enough saving and there will be climate breakdown and ‘bankruptcy’. So where does speculative design start and the gambling and betting end? Behind each fabular frame is a four ratio problem. Each ratio reflects the level of sacrifice and self-restraint a society is willing to accept, against promises of prosperity and freedom. Some values seem to stabilise a frame while others cause collapse. Get the ratios right and we can have it all. Get them wrong and things get more desperate.
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck mari...Donc Test
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
TEST BANK Principles of cost accounting 17th edition edward j vanderbeck maria r mitchell.docx
University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcripttscdzuip
办理美国UNCC毕业证书制作北卡大学夏洛特分校假文凭定制Q微168899991做UNCC留信网教留服认证海牙认证改UNCC成绩单GPA做UNCC假学位证假文凭高仿毕业证GRE代考如何申请北卡罗莱纳大学夏洛特分校University of North Carolina at Charlotte degree offer diploma Transcript
In a tight labour market, job-seekers gain bargaining power and leverage it into greater job quality—at least, that’s the conventional wisdom.
Michael, LMIC Economist, presented findings that reveal a weakened relationship between labour market tightness and job quality indicators following the pandemic. Labour market tightness coincided with growth in real wages for only a portion of workers: those in low-wage jobs requiring little education. Several factors—including labour market composition, worker and employer behaviour, and labour market practices—have contributed to the absence of worker benefits. These will be investigated further in future work.
Enhancing Asset Quality: Strategies for Financial Institutionsshruti1menon2
Ensuring robust asset quality is not just a mere aspect but a critical cornerstone for the stability and success of financial institutions worldwide. It serves as the bedrock upon which profitability is built and investor confidence is sustained. Therefore, in this presentation, we delve into a comprehensive exploration of strategies that can aid financial institutions in achieving and maintaining superior asset quality.
A toxic combination of 15 years of low growth, and four decades of high inequality, has left Britain poorer and falling behind its peers. Productivity growth is weak and public investment is low, while wages today are no higher than they were before the financial crisis. Britain needs a new economic strategy to lift itself out of stagnation.
Scotland is in many ways a microcosm of this challenge. It has become a hub for creative industries, is home to several world-class universities and a thriving community of businesses – strengths that need to be harness and leveraged. But it also has high levels of deprivation, with homelessness reaching a record high and nearly half a million people living in very deep poverty last year. Scotland won’t be truly thriving unless it finds ways to ensure that all its inhabitants benefit from growth and investment. This is the central challenge facing policy makers both in Holyrood and Westminster.
What should a new national economic strategy for Scotland include? What would the pursuit of stronger economic growth mean for local, national and UK-wide policy makers? How will economic change affect the jobs we do, the places we live and the businesses we work for? And what are the prospects for cities like Glasgow, and nations like Scotland, in rising to these challenges?
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leadermsthrill
In World Expo 2010 Shanghai – the most visited Expo in the World History
https://www.britannica.com/event/Expo-Shanghai-2010
China’s official organizer of the Expo, CCPIT (China Council for the Promotion of International Trade https://en.ccpit.org/) has chosen Dr. Alyce Su as the Cover Person with Cover Story, in the Expo’s official magazine distributed throughout the Expo, showcasing China’s New Generation of Leaders to the World.
Dr. Alyce Su Cover Story - China's Investment Leader
The Great Fall in China August 2015 - Special market bulletin St. James's Place
1. SPE CI A L I N V E STM E N T BU L L E T I N
CHINA GDP ANNUAL GROWTH RATE
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
11%
12%
13%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Bloomberg, 25 August 2015
SPE CI A L I N V E STM E N T BU L L E T I N
The Great Fall of China
AUGUST 2015
The constant ebb and flow between investor fear and optimism seems firmly positioned toward the former as
we reach the end of the summer. Global equity markets have reversed the gains of earlier in the year in a series
of trading sessions which saw a sea of red across dealers’ screens, culminating in what has already been termed
‘Black Monday’. So, what’s causing the fall in equity markets around the world and what should you do if you’re
invested or were thinking of investing prior to the recent downturn?
Blame game
The blame for the dramatic falls witnessed in global share prices can be placed firmly at the door of China.
With an economy growing at around 7% a year, one might think there’s little to worry about – especially
when compared to the comparatively anaemic GDP figures of the US and UK, which stand at 2.3% and 2.6%
respectively. However, whilst both Western economies appear to be over most of the major hurdles experienced
in the aftermath of the financial crisis of 2008/09, and are on an upward trend, China’s GDP growth has been
in a state of gradual decline for five years since peaking at around 12% a year.
1
2. SPE CI A L I N V E STM E N T BU L L E T I N
This slowdown in the pace of Chinese expansion has been well understood for a number of years. However, a
combination of disappointing economic data, recent excessive share price rises, and thin trading volumes at the
height of summer, proved a potent combination to put first the Chinese stock market, and then global markets,
into reverse.
China’s trade figures released in mid-August provided evidence to suggest that world trade may be contracting,
as the value of China’s exports and imports fell by over 8% year-on-year in July. What’s more, this weakness was
broad-based, with exports to the US, the EU, and to other emerging economies, all declining in July. This data
was followed by the preliminary Caixin China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (a gauge of Chinese
manufacturing activity), which fell to a 77-month low in August and sparked further concerns about China’s failed
attempts to reinvigorate slowing growth.
What goes up…
Whilst investors have enjoyed a gradual upward move in international equity markets over the last 12 months or
so, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index had surged by more than 155% since May 2014. This has been
fuelled by a government-sponsored market access programme that encouraged many local, first-time investors
into the market, creating a boom to rival that of tech stocks at the start of the millennium. Whilst experienced
investors may reflect on the adage that what goes up must come down, many local investors panicked and dumped
recently-acquired shares when it became obvious that the government’s attempts to prop up an overheated
market were unsuccessful. The People’s Bank of China has responded to the continued fall in share prices by
further cutting interest rates in an attempt to stimulate economic growth.
Wasatch Advisors, managers of the St. James’s Place Emerging Market Equity fund, provide a professional
investor’s perspective: “We’ve never invested in Chinese A-shares due to our concerns regarding growth,
valuations and transparency. When we do decide to pursue additional opportunities in China, it’s likely that
our investments will be through the H-shares traded in Hong Kong, where corporate governance is better and
speculation tends to be less extreme.”
2
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX IN YUAN
Source: Bloomberg, 25 August 2015 Please be aware that past performance is not indicative of future performance.
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
Aug 12 Nov 12 Feb 13 May 13 Aug 13 Nov 13 Feb 14 May 14 Aug 14 Nov 14 Feb 15 May 15 Aug 15
SHANGHAI COMPOSITE INDEX
Just 20 years ago such developments would barely have caused a ripple in international markets, but with China
now accounting for around 15% of global GDP, a slowdown in the largest engine of global growth was bound to
have some knock-on effects.
3. SPE CI A L I N V E STM E N T BU L L E T I N
“It is no surprise that growth concerns in China would whack the markets,” commented Richard Rooney of
Burgundy Asset Management. “China is the foundation of the global growth story for many multinationals.”
As China’s consumption of resources has slowed, commodity prices have also been falling, with the obvious
impact on the share prices of mining and commodity stocks around the globe and those emerging markets heavily
reliant on these industries. In fact, most commodity prices are near 52-week lows, as evidenced by Brent Crude
oil which stands at just over $42 per barrel at the time of writing.
In stark contrast to China, one further factor that has been playing on investors’ minds is the fear of potential
interest rate rises in the US and the UK. Forecasters had predicted a September rate rise by the US Federal
Reserve, followed by the Bank of England perhaps in the first quarter of 2016, reflecting the return to better
health of these economies. Whilst the recent volatility may not be sufficient to delay these moves, it will certainly
cause the authorities to be wary about raising rates too far too fast.
Food for thought
Accurately predicting short-term market movements remains highly speculative and prone to failure, and it would
be foolish to suggest that further falls in markets are unlikely to follow in the days or weeks ahead. That said,
it will have come as little surprise to experienced investors that the UK and other equity markets have almost
completely reversed the sharp falls seen on Monday. As we have stated in the past, so often the best days to invest
follow the steepest falls.
However, unlike previous market slides, we believe that things today are in broadly positive shape and that there
are reasons to think opportunistically or, for those currently invested, to remain confident that they can ride out
the storm.
Major economies such as the US, UK, eurozone and Japan are generally improving, with data suggesting that
there is little to support the case for a significant global economic downturn.
The gradual decline in China’s growth rate is nothing new and whilst economic data remains ‘sluggish’, it
seems insufficient to support the case for the ‘hard landing’ that many had initially feared.
Whilst a fall in commodity prices will impact on the profitability of certain commodity-linked companies,
the net effect will be beneficial for global consumers.
The fundamentals of companies haven’t changed overnight. Whilst the FTSE 100 Index is down by 9.9% since
the start of the year, the FTSE 250 is marginally up. This reflects the significant weighting of commodity-
linked companies within the blue-chip index compared with its mid-cap peer. Likewise, the recent fall in
prices will, no doubt, present selective buying opportunities.
The situation surrounding Greece seems to be resolved for the time being, as ‘Grexit’ appears more unlikely
following an €86 billion international bailout from which it can start to service debt liabilities.
Such a market event once again provides a demonstration of the value of maintaining a balanced and
appropriately-diversified investment portfolio.
Short-term volatility is an inherent feature of equity markets. However, with the support of very accommodative
monetary policy worldwide, markets have marched higher for four years without much volatility, which perhaps
makes recent events more unsettling. The advice to investors remains the same; to maintain a well-diversified
portfolioandkeepfocusonthelonger-termobjectivesthatinvestmentinrealassetshasprovencapableofachieving.
Wasatch Advisors and Burgundy Asset Management are fund managers for St. James’s Place.
3