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Market Commentary
With the backdrop of sensationalist headlines about investment markets in the media
over the last few days it is important to focus on the fundamentals that drive market
movements.
There has been much speculation in recent months that there may be some sort of
correction in main stream markets. The S&P 500 rose by over 21% in 2017 and 5.7%
in January 2018 alone. Here in the UK the FTSE All Share was up by more than 13% in
2017 and down almost 2% in January 2018 with the differential in performance being
influenced by the recent strong performance of Sterling against the US Dollar.
Continued worldwide economic growth, low interest rates and the supply of money
all point to a positive environment for investors. So what has changed?
Last week Bond markets fell in light of the announcement in the US that Federal
borrowing was to increase by 84% resulting in lower prices and therefore higher Bond
yields than have been seen for some time. On Friday, US Payroll data showed that US
earnings are increasing, which points to a higher possibility of interest rates increasing
beyond the anticipated rate hikes due this year. The result is that some profit taking
has occurred in mainstream equities markets with an undoubted reinvestment in
higher yielding Bond markets. The profit taking in equities markets is exacerbated by
automatic algorithmic stop losses which tends to magnify selling beyond market
intention.
The Investment Committee at Harrington Wood think that the current overreaction
will reverse over time and that volatility is actually a fairly normal condition in
investment markets. Ultimately, worldwide economic fundamentals point to a more
stable picture in investment markets and having a diversified approach to investing
will be the key to navigating your way through the vagaries of markets.
Please speak to your usual consultant if you would like any further
information.

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070218 market commentary

  • 1. Market Commentary With the backdrop of sensationalist headlines about investment markets in the media over the last few days it is important to focus on the fundamentals that drive market movements. There has been much speculation in recent months that there may be some sort of correction in main stream markets. The S&P 500 rose by over 21% in 2017 and 5.7% in January 2018 alone. Here in the UK the FTSE All Share was up by more than 13% in 2017 and down almost 2% in January 2018 with the differential in performance being influenced by the recent strong performance of Sterling against the US Dollar. Continued worldwide economic growth, low interest rates and the supply of money all point to a positive environment for investors. So what has changed? Last week Bond markets fell in light of the announcement in the US that Federal borrowing was to increase by 84% resulting in lower prices and therefore higher Bond yields than have been seen for some time. On Friday, US Payroll data showed that US earnings are increasing, which points to a higher possibility of interest rates increasing beyond the anticipated rate hikes due this year. The result is that some profit taking has occurred in mainstream equities markets with an undoubted reinvestment in higher yielding Bond markets. The profit taking in equities markets is exacerbated by automatic algorithmic stop losses which tends to magnify selling beyond market intention. The Investment Committee at Harrington Wood think that the current overreaction will reverse over time and that volatility is actually a fairly normal condition in investment markets. Ultimately, worldwide economic fundamentals point to a more stable picture in investment markets and having a diversified approach to investing will be the key to navigating your way through the vagaries of markets. Please speak to your usual consultant if you would like any further information.