The document discusses the challenges at the water-energy-food nexus by 2030 if current trends continue. It notes projections that energy and water demand will increase by 40% and food demand by 50%, putting pressure on scarce land and water resources. Meeting these competing demands through single sector approaches is limiting sustainability. Integrated governance and public-private collaboration will be needed to promote resource efficiency and manage these interconnected systems. Science can contribute by better understanding feedbacks within the nexus and linking global changes to local conditions to inform effective policymaking across scales.

1. Taking a look into 2030 – managing water, energy and land for sustainable and inclusive development Lecture Series “The Water-Energy-Food Security Nexus” Winter Semester 2011/2012 Initiated by DIE, Institute of Geography (University of Cologne) and ITT (Cologne University of Applied Sciences) Dr. Imme Scholz deputy director DIE 24 October 2011

2. Content Problem definition: sustainability and/or development? Main challenges at the nexus of water, energy and land management Ways forward: contributions of science and policy

3. Problem definition Today: 1.1 billion without access to safe water close to 1 billion are undernourished 1.5 billion without access to electricity 80% of global energy supplies are based on fossil fuels which cause greenhouse gas emissions and global warming global warming increases risks of droughts, floods, and rainfall variability – with serious current situations of local water overuse Agricultural inputs (water, energy, nitrogene and phosphorus) are too much in some places, too little in others, rarely just right agriculture covers 38% of terrestrial surface and continues to expand 10-20% of drylands are degraded (2000)

4. Economic wealth, human wellbeing and environmental sustainability Meeting the dual goals of sustainability High human development and low ecological impact Source: © Global Footprint Network (2009). Data from Global Footprint Network National Footprint Accounts, 2009 Edition; UNDP Human Development Report, 2009

5. Shifting wealth (OECD 2010) Share of OECD / non OECD countries in global GDP Absolute share of poor (<1USD/day) decreasing since 1990s, but subnational persistent pockets of poverty China: 1981 84%, 2005 16%; India: 60% / 42% Share of the South in world trade: nearly 40%, half of it South-South Growth of South-South FDI

6. A “new” middle class is emerging Shifting patterns of wealth

7. Nature-society metabolism Socio- economic system land, water, resources waste, emissions Material accumulation Consumption Recycling Earth’s natural system Regulating and provisioning services Based on Hertwich et al, 2010 and Martínez-Alier, 2011

8. Nature-society metabolism in crisis Source: Rockström et al. in Nature 461, 24 September 2009 global management resource efficiency innovation limits to growth new concept of prosperity 3 of 9 planetary boundaries transgressed Time matters!

9. Avenues for change Vision 2050 ecological footprint against business-as-usual How many Earths do we use? Source: Global Footprint Network and WBCSD Vision 2050 , 2010

10. Main challenges at the nexus Projections of future demand by 2030: energy and water: +40% food: +50% This means: more energy needed for agricicultural inputs, food production and processing; and for water supply land and water needed for food, livestock, fibres and biomass for energy exploitation of hydropower potentials

11. Main challenges at the nexus Development pressures on water, land and the atmosphere have grown to such an extent over the past 5 decades that they are challenging the effectiveness of conventional planning and decision-making. Trying to meet demand through single sector approaches in response to inherently inter-linked and interdependent processes is limiting our ability to provide water, food and energy services in an inclusive and sustainable manner. Source: Bonn Nexus Conference 2011

12. Examples of challenges at the nexus - less than 10% of the world‘s primary energy demand could be met from biofuel if all abandoned agricultural land was planted with biofuel feedstocks water and energy intensity of agriculture is high, and exacerbated by enormous losses and wastages in the food production and consumption chain change input intensive production systems without reducing productivity… (i.e. organic/conservation agriculture, more precise fertilizer application) improve resource efficiency in order to meet competing demands for water/land/energy between food, feed, biofuel and ecosystem services

13. Public policies  establish frameworks that promote transparency and inclusiveness  promote long-term orientation  internalize externalities  enable and guide markets by linking local uses with global and local thresholds  promote integrated and systemic approaches for managing agriculture, forestry, water, and energy Governance challenges at the nexus

14. Governance challenges at the nexus Public governance: clear strategies for sustainable water/land use and energy supply (binding targets, timetables, incentives and support measures) Corporate governance: proactive strategies for innovating core business activities (products, processes) in order to meet sustainability targets and supply the bottom billion Global governance: fair burdensharing, access/use rights for all, cooperation in identifying and implementing innovative solutions EU strategic action as an opportunity

15. Policy recommendations for EU European consumption and production patterns – push for major changes, i.a. environmental footprint of agriculture, food wastage and meat consumption. Nexus approach – adopt an integrated approach to water, energy and food/land both internally in Europe in developing countries & apply its PCD principles to all EU policies Collaboration with the private sector – work with EU companies working in resource scarce countries to promote high standards of corporate practice. EU Development Cooperation – review programmes in developing countries in light of nexus approach. Support to the poorest – work closely with poorest communities in developing countries to help them adapt to changes and strengthen their resilience. Pricing mechanisms for scarce resources – support mechanisms to reflect the true value of natural resources and abolish subsidies that distort this pricing. Transparency – work closely with partner governments and private sector to promote transparency initiatives among European investors and partners. International cooperation – support binding agreements/regulatory frameworks to reduce emissions and open, transparent and stable trade, investment and migration rules.

16. Understand feedback mechanisms within the nexus and translate into systemic management approaches Understand linkages between global environmental change and local action and conditions (i.e. global scarcity of arable land vs. local abundance)  design effective global regimes! Anchor them in effective national policies! Understand new patterns of consumption and production in context of shifting patterns of wealth  new concepts of prosperity? Combine different knowledge communities for promoting fundamental transformation of water, land and energy policies – at global and local levels! Contributions by science for policy

17. Thank you for your attention!