The document outlines China's vision for transitioning to a clean, low-carbon energy system by 2050. It presents two scenarios - a Stated Policies scenario based on current policies, and a Below 2°C scenario that limits CO2 emissions per Paris Agreement goals. Key results for the Below 2°C scenario show energy consumption 19% lower in 2050, with non-fossil fuels at 65% of the mix and coal consumption down 85%. GDP would be 4.2 times higher, while CO2 emissions would decrease 73%. The transition requires transforming China's energy, power, and industry systems to utilize more renewable resources like wind, solar, and electrification.

1. China Renewable Energy Outlook 2019
A blueprint for a clean, low-carbon,
safe and efficient energy system in China
Wang Zhongying
Acting DirectorGeneral, Energy Research Institute of China Academy of Macroeconomic Research/National Development and Reform Commission
Director, China National Renewable Energy Centre
12.12.19
China Renewable Energy
Outlook
2019Energ
y R
ese
arc
h Institute
of Academ
y of M
acro
econom
ic R
ese
arc
h/N
DRC
Chin
a N
ational Renewable E
nerg
y C
entre

2. Our starting point:
The Chinese vision
for the energy
transition
Vision
Beautiful
China
Ecological
civilisation
Energy
Revolution
long-term
focus - 2035 -
2050
Build a clean,
low-carbon,
safe, efficient
energy
system
Sustainable
growth
within the
ecological
boundaries
A clean, low-carbon,
safe, efficient energy
system

3. China Renewable
Energy Outlook
CREO
Two main scenarios in CREO
• Stated Policies scenario,
estimating the energy system
development based on current and
stated policies
• Below 2 °C scenario with added
restrictions on CO2 emission to
comply with the Paris agreement
goals
Energy system
scenarios
for 2050
Roadmaps
Policy
action plan
Methodology
• Analyse the whole energy system
• Make the visions for 2050 concrete
• Roadmap bridging 2020 and 2050
• Recommend policy measures with
consistent, balanced elements and
targets

4. Primary energy
demand
Transformation
Final energy
demand
Energy service
demand
Bioenergy
Wind
Solar
Hydro
Geothermal
Ocean
Nuclear
Coal
Oil
Gas
Fossil fuel
processing
Power
generation and
transmission
District heating
production
Heat
production
Biomass
processing
Agriculture
Industry
Buildings
Construction
Transport
Building cooling
Industrial Production
Service value added
Building heating
Food production
New infrastructure
Personal transport
Transport for trade
Manufacturing
Citizen comfort
Socioeconomic
drivers
Technologies Policies
Energy flows
Investments and
operating cost
Emissions
Socioeconomic
impact
Energy system
modelling
The scenarios are
modelled in the CNREC
modelling suite, covering
energy supply, energy
transformation and end-
use sectors.

5. The three synchronous
transformations in a
green and low-carbon
development patch
Energy
transformation
Power system
transformation
Heavy industry
electrification
Transformation
from heavy to
light industry
and service
Economic
transformation
• Industrial (end-use) transformation
from fossil fuels to electricity
• Transformation to smart industry
• Power system transformation from
coal to renewable energy
Deep transformation of the
industry and energy sector structure
could result in a reduction of
total primary energy consumption
from 6500 – 7500 Mtce
to 3500 – 3800 Mtce
in 2050
The green energy transformation boosts
the green energy industry which again
boosts the sustainable economic growth

6. Key results for the
Below 2 °C scenario
- 2050 results
- Roadmap to 2035

7. 0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2018 2050
TrillionRMB_2018
GDP TPEC Coal CO2 emission
2050 GDP 4.2 times
bigger than 2018 GDP
in real prices
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
Energy consumption
19% lower in 2050 and
non-fossil fuel share
increased to 65%
Fossil
FossilNon-fossil
Coal consumption
down 85% from 2018
to 2050
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
65%
35%
10%
In accounting for primary energy the physical energy content method is applied
90%
19%
85%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2 018 2 050
MillionronCO2
73%
CO2 emission down
73% in 2050
2050
4.2

8. GDP TPEC Coal CO2 emission
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
Energy consumption
19% lower in 2050 and
non-fossil fuel share
increased to 65%
Fossil
FossilNon-fossil
Coal consumption
down 85% from 2018
to 2050
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
65%
35%
10%
In accounting for primary energy the physical energy content method is applied
90%
19%
85%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2 018 2 050
MillionronCO2
73%
CO2 emission down
73% in 2050
2050
2050 GDP 4.2 times
bigger than 2018 GDP
in real prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2018 2050
TrillionRMB_2018
4.2

9. GDP TPEC Coal CO2 emission
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
Energy consumption
19% lower in 2050 and
non-fossil fuel share
increased to 65%
Fossil
FossilNon-fossil
Coal consumption
down 85% from 2018
to 2050
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
65%
35%
10%
In accounting for primary energy the physical energy content method is applied
90%
19%
85%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2 018 2 050
MillionronCO2
73%
CO2 emission down
73% in 2050
2050
2050 GDP 4.2 times
bigger than 2018 GDP
in real prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2018 2050
TrillionRMB_2018
4.2

10. GDP TPEC Coal CO2 emission
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
Energy consumption
19% lower in 2050 and
non-fossil fuel share
increased to 65%
Fossil
FossilNon-fossil
Coal consumption
down 85% from 2018
to 2050
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
2 018 2 050
Mtce
65%
35%
10%
In accounting for primary energy the physical energy content method is applied
90%
19%
85%
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
2 018 2 050
MillionronCO2
73%
CO2 emission down
73% in 2050
2050
2050 GDP 4.2 times
bigger than 2018 GDP
in real prices
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2018 2050
TrillionRMB_2018
4.2

11. Change in energy structure towards 2050
• Wind and solar becomes the
backbone of the energy system
• The use of coal and oil is
significantly reduced
• A moderate increase in the use
of natural gas
• Increase of the use of nuclear
power
20503536
Mtce
4025
Mtce
In accounting for primary energy the physical energy content method is applied
2050
2050

12. Lower cost in the power sector
• The cost structure in the power
sector changes from fuel cost to
fixed costs.
• The overall system costs in 2050 are
lower than the 2018 power system
cost because wind and solar power
are cheaper solutions in the years
to come
• Overall, power system costs are
20% lower in 2050 than in 2018 in
fixed prices
2050

13. Energy transition
benefits
Benefits
for
society
Health
benefits
Job
creation
Globally
stronger
strategic
industries
Enable
sustainable
growth
• Significantly reduced damage cost
from air pollution
• Transfer of jobs from coal industry
to RE industry, EV manufacturing
and digitalisation industry
• Stronger global position for China’s
strategic emerging industries
• Allows for economic growth
without overstepping the
ecological “red lines”
2050

15. In accounting for primary energy the physical energy content method is applied
2000 – 2035
Decarbonisation pathway
Renewable electricity deployment the next 3 five‐year plans:
• 14 FYP – Industry scale‐up: average annual additions of wind 53 GW and solar 58 GW
• 15 FYP – Establish:Wind averages 127 GW and solar 116 GW annually.
• 16 FYP – Revolutionise: ~150 GW per year of wind and solar
14 FYP 15 FYP 16 FYP

16. Energy transition drivers
1. RE promotion
2. Coal control
3. Energy efficiency measures
4. Power markets
5. Flexible power system
6. Efficient carbon control policy

17. RE rapidly
becomes the
cheapest new
power source
Value-adjusted LCOE for coal, gas, wind and solar in
Europe, hina and US. In all regions, solar and wind
becomes the cheapest option for new capacity
Source: IEA Offshore WindOutlook 2019

18. Electrification
Due to the cost‐reductions in renewable
electricity supply sources, electricity becomes
an increasingly cost‐competitive energy
carrier and thereby a means to replace direct
consumption of fossil fuels.
Transport
• 2050: 39% from 2% in 2018.
Industry
• 2050: 51% from 28% in 2018
Buildings
• 2050: 58% from 30% in 2018

19. Key recommendations for
the 14th five-year plan and
forward

20. 14th five-year plan
Set ambitious, but realistic end‐targets for the
period
Leverage cost reductions in wind and solar and
scale‐up the pace of RE installations
Ensure supporting RE policies, such as strong RE
purchasing requirements, after the transition from
subsidy to market prices.
Internalise fossil fuels’ damage and/or abatement
costs through the refined ETS mechanism.
Pursue electrification with focus on industry to
reduce coal consumption and transport to stymie
the growing consumption of oil products.
Avoid new coal power plants and conduct orderly
prioritised closures of inefficient plants and coal
mines.
Targets for 2025
• 19% non‐fossil energy share (physical
energy content)
• 21% reduction in energy intensity (GDP)
• 27% CO2 intensity (GDP) reduction
• 265 GW new wind (53 GW per year in
average)
• 290 GW new solar PV (58 GW per year in
average)

22. Conclusions
China has the visions and the possibilities to change the
energy system to become clean, low-carbon, safe and
efficient by 2050
Our analyses show that such green energy transition is
technically possible and economically beneficial
The energy transition will boost the economic growth
in a sustainable manner by stimulating growth in the
green industry – RE, EV, digitalisation…
The 14th five-year plan should set the right direction
through a number of measures, followed by even more
ambitious actions in the 15th and 16th five-year plans
Key drivers for the development
• The economic reform process from
quantitative to qualitative growth
• Doubling of the electrification rate in
industry and building sector from 2018 to
2050
• 400 million EVs on the road in 2050
• 2633 GW Wind turbines in 2050
• 2791 GW Solar PV panels in 2050

23. Thank you for
your attention 