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Australia’s National Science Agency
Update on
Australian
TIMES
model
Luke Reedman | 9 December 2019
• Structure of AusTIMES
• Updates to inputs since last report
• Activities/Projects
• Where are we going (“Demand-pull”)
• Collaboration with ETSAP
Overview
Structure
AusTIMES structure
• Coverage of all states and territories (ACT, NSW, NT, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC, WA)
• AusTIMES has been calibrated to a base year of 2015 based on state/territory
level energy balance (OCE, 2016), national inventory of greenhouse gas
emissions (DoEE, 2017), existing stock of electricity generators (GHD, 2018) and
vehicles in the transport sector (ABS, 2016).
• Time is represented in annual frequency (2015-2020) and then five-year time
steps (2025, 2030,…, 2050)
• Demand sectors include agriculture (8 sub-sectors), mining (6 sub-sectors),
manufacturing (19 sub-sectors), other industry (5 sub-sectors), commercial and
services (11 building types), residential (3 building types), road transport (10
vehicle segments) and non-road transport (aviation, rail, shipping).
AusTIMES structure
• End-use services
• Residential (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other)
• Services (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other)
• Industry sectors (process, equipment)
• Transport (10 road vehicle classes, aviation, rail, shipping)
• Electricity sector
• NEM (16 zones), SWIS, NWIS, DKIS, MIIS
• 16 time slices per year (seasonal, time of day)
• Existing generation fleet – unit level data for thermal and hydro
• Renewable resource availability/potential by zone
• Many technologies
Updates since last report
Team effort
• Industry (36 sub-sectors)
• Some autonomous energy efficiency improvement
• Costed EE technologies (process improvements, small and large equipment upgrades)
• Costed electrification options (e.g., industrial heat pumps, electric furnaces)
• Costed fuel switching options (e.g., fossil fuels to low carbon fuels)
• Buildings (14 building types)
• Commercial/services: Hospital, hotel, law court, offices, public, retail, supermarkets, schools,
tertiary, data centres, aged care)
• Residential: Detached, semi-detached (townhouses, terraces), apartments
• End-uses represented (space heating, space cooling, lighting, hot water, appliances, cooking,
equipment)
• EE options for existing, retrofits, new buildings
Demand sectors – Industry, services, residential
DER/LZEV Adoption model
Calculations
Key inputs Existing and new
electricity load
Technology cost
and electricity
tariff
Age
Type/ownership
of building
Educational
attainment
Discretional
income
Payback period Non-price factors
Multiple representative customer loads; Vehicle types and utilization rates ; ABS spatial categories
Segmentation
Technology adoption
curve calibration
Customer/
market growth
Existing and
retiring capacity
Sales and
market
size
Customer / fleet model
t
%
Electricity, storage costs
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Gasturbine
Gasreciprocating
Blackcoal
Browncoal
Gas
Blackcoal
Browncoal
Gas
Blackcoal
Browncoal
Gas
BlackcoalwithCCS
BrowncoalwithCCS
GaswithCCS
Solarthermal8hrs
Nuclear(SMR)
Biomass(smallscale)
Wind
Solarphotovoltaic
Wind
Solarphotovoltaic
Wind
Solarphotovoltaic
Carbon
price
No carbon price
or risk premium
No carbon price,
5% risk premium
Carbon price Carbon price Standalone 2hrs
battery
storage
6hrs PHES
Peaking
20% load
Flexible 40-80% load, high emission Flexible 40-80% load, low emission Variable Variable Variable
2019-20A$/MWh
https://doi.org/10.25919/5c587da8cafe7
Activities/projects
Project
Decarbonisation Futures (2019)
Climate Works Australia
Stakeholders: VIC DEWLP, QLD Govt, CEFC
Project
Australian National Outlook (2018)
CSIRO, National Australia Bank
Urban Shift – Transport
Source: CSIRO modelling and analysis
Source: CSIRO modelling and analysis
ANNUAL VEHICLE KILOMETRES TRAVELLED (‘000) PER CAPITA
www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/ANO
Project
AusTEN (2017-2020)
Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA)
Partners: University of Tasmania, University of
Queensland
http://austen.org.au/
Revised tidal resource mapping
Project
COMMIT: Climate pOlicy assessment and
Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national
and global Transition pathways (2018-
2020)
European Commission
Partners: PBL, PIK, IIASA, Imperial College London, PNNL, COPPETEC, E3
Modelling, NIES, ECCC, NCSC, ERI, TERI, BAU, CREP-ITB, IGES, UOS, HSE
https://themasites.pbl.nl/commit/
Bridging scenarios
Other projects
Applications
• GHG emission reduction pathways
• Transport
• Road v. Non-road abatement potential
• Electric vehicle adoption
• Incentives for LZEVs
• Disruption from autonomous vehicles
• Bans on ICE vehicles
• Revenue implications
• Electricity
• CSP configurations
• New Renewable Energy Zones, HVDC links
“Demand-pull”
Hydrogen pathways
• Electrolysis
• Fossil fuel conversion
• Biomass and waste
conversion
• Direct hydrogen carrier
production
• Thermal water splitting
• Biological hydrogen
production
• Photochemical and
photocatalytic processes
• Compression and
liquefaction
o Compressed hydrogen
o Liquid hydrogen
o Underground storage
o Pipeline storage
• Chemical storage
o Ammonia
o Synthetic fuels
o LOHCs
o Hydrides
o Proton batteries
o Physisorption
• Hydrogen Utilisation
• Direct hydrogen carrier
utilisation
• Environment
• Social licence, safety and
standards
• Modelling
• Policy and regulation
• Ancillary technology and
services
ETSAP Collaboration
Collaborative activities
• Kanors-EMR
• ETSAP projects:
• Excel technology database for energy system models integrated with a TIMES SubRES
• Modelling of hydrogen & Joint workshops with Hydrogen TCP
• Visits
• Kiti Suomolainen (U. Auckland) – August 2019
• Wenying Chen (Tsinghua University) – 2020 TBC
Australia’s National Science Agency
Luke Reedman
Lead, Energy Transition Pathways
CSIRO Energy
+61 2 4960 6057
Luke.reedman@csiro.au
csiro.au/energy
Thank you

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Update on applications of an Australian TIMES model

  • 1. Australia’s National Science Agency Update on Australian TIMES model Luke Reedman | 9 December 2019
  • 2. • Structure of AusTIMES • Updates to inputs since last report • Activities/Projects • Where are we going (“Demand-pull”) • Collaboration with ETSAP Overview
  • 4. AusTIMES structure • Coverage of all states and territories (ACT, NSW, NT, QLD, SA, TAS, VIC, WA) • AusTIMES has been calibrated to a base year of 2015 based on state/territory level energy balance (OCE, 2016), national inventory of greenhouse gas emissions (DoEE, 2017), existing stock of electricity generators (GHD, 2018) and vehicles in the transport sector (ABS, 2016). • Time is represented in annual frequency (2015-2020) and then five-year time steps (2025, 2030,…, 2050) • Demand sectors include agriculture (8 sub-sectors), mining (6 sub-sectors), manufacturing (19 sub-sectors), other industry (5 sub-sectors), commercial and services (11 building types), residential (3 building types), road transport (10 vehicle segments) and non-road transport (aviation, rail, shipping).
  • 5. AusTIMES structure • End-use services • Residential (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other) • Services (heating, cooling, hot water, lighting, cooking, appliances/other) • Industry sectors (process, equipment) • Transport (10 road vehicle classes, aviation, rail, shipping) • Electricity sector • NEM (16 zones), SWIS, NWIS, DKIS, MIIS • 16 time slices per year (seasonal, time of day) • Existing generation fleet – unit level data for thermal and hydro • Renewable resource availability/potential by zone • Many technologies
  • 8. • Industry (36 sub-sectors) • Some autonomous energy efficiency improvement • Costed EE technologies (process improvements, small and large equipment upgrades) • Costed electrification options (e.g., industrial heat pumps, electric furnaces) • Costed fuel switching options (e.g., fossil fuels to low carbon fuels) • Buildings (14 building types) • Commercial/services: Hospital, hotel, law court, offices, public, retail, supermarkets, schools, tertiary, data centres, aged care) • Residential: Detached, semi-detached (townhouses, terraces), apartments • End-uses represented (space heating, space cooling, lighting, hot water, appliances, cooking, equipment) • EE options for existing, retrofits, new buildings Demand sectors – Industry, services, residential
  • 9. DER/LZEV Adoption model Calculations Key inputs Existing and new electricity load Technology cost and electricity tariff Age Type/ownership of building Educational attainment Discretional income Payback period Non-price factors Multiple representative customer loads; Vehicle types and utilization rates ; ABS spatial categories Segmentation Technology adoption curve calibration Customer/ market growth Existing and retiring capacity Sales and market size Customer / fleet model t %
  • 10. Electricity, storage costs 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Gasturbine Gasreciprocating Blackcoal Browncoal Gas Blackcoal Browncoal Gas Blackcoal Browncoal Gas BlackcoalwithCCS BrowncoalwithCCS GaswithCCS Solarthermal8hrs Nuclear(SMR) Biomass(smallscale) Wind Solarphotovoltaic Wind Solarphotovoltaic Wind Solarphotovoltaic Carbon price No carbon price or risk premium No carbon price, 5% risk premium Carbon price Carbon price Standalone 2hrs battery storage 6hrs PHES Peaking 20% load Flexible 40-80% load, high emission Flexible 40-80% load, low emission Variable Variable Variable 2019-20A$/MWh https://doi.org/10.25919/5c587da8cafe7
  • 12. Project Decarbonisation Futures (2019) Climate Works Australia Stakeholders: VIC DEWLP, QLD Govt, CEFC
  • 13. Project Australian National Outlook (2018) CSIRO, National Australia Bank
  • 14. Urban Shift – Transport Source: CSIRO modelling and analysis Source: CSIRO modelling and analysis ANNUAL VEHICLE KILOMETRES TRAVELLED (‘000) PER CAPITA www.csiro.au/en/Showcase/ANO
  • 15. Project AusTEN (2017-2020) Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA) Partners: University of Tasmania, University of Queensland http://austen.org.au/
  • 17. Project COMMIT: Climate pOlicy assessment and Mitigation Modeling to Integrate national and global Transition pathways (2018- 2020) European Commission Partners: PBL, PIK, IIASA, Imperial College London, PNNL, COPPETEC, E3 Modelling, NIES, ECCC, NCSC, ERI, TERI, BAU, CREP-ITB, IGES, UOS, HSE https://themasites.pbl.nl/commit/
  • 20. Applications • GHG emission reduction pathways • Transport • Road v. Non-road abatement potential • Electric vehicle adoption • Incentives for LZEVs • Disruption from autonomous vehicles • Bans on ICE vehicles • Revenue implications • Electricity • CSP configurations • New Renewable Energy Zones, HVDC links
  • 22. Hydrogen pathways • Electrolysis • Fossil fuel conversion • Biomass and waste conversion • Direct hydrogen carrier production • Thermal water splitting • Biological hydrogen production • Photochemical and photocatalytic processes • Compression and liquefaction o Compressed hydrogen o Liquid hydrogen o Underground storage o Pipeline storage • Chemical storage o Ammonia o Synthetic fuels o LOHCs o Hydrides o Proton batteries o Physisorption • Hydrogen Utilisation • Direct hydrogen carrier utilisation • Environment • Social licence, safety and standards • Modelling • Policy and regulation • Ancillary technology and services
  • 24. Collaborative activities • Kanors-EMR • ETSAP projects: • Excel technology database for energy system models integrated with a TIMES SubRES • Modelling of hydrogen & Joint workshops with Hydrogen TCP • Visits • Kiti Suomolainen (U. Auckland) – August 2019 • Wenying Chen (Tsinghua University) – 2020 TBC
  • 25. Australia’s National Science Agency Luke Reedman Lead, Energy Transition Pathways CSIRO Energy +61 2 4960 6057 Luke.reedman@csiro.au csiro.au/energy Thank you