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The things every company needs to know:
physical, economic, and operational implications
of climate change
TCFD workshops: Practical steps for implementation
16 October 2019—17 October 2019
Tim Naish
30 years
230 years
Today’s CO2 is 410ppm
Highest for 3 million years
Atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to increase
2019 on track to be
warmest year on
record = +1.2 ℃
Global temperature continues to increase
1℃ of warming of Earth’s surface
IPCC (2013)
Past Future
Where to from here?
Kaiaua
Thames-Coromandel highway
Firth of Thames coastal flood, 5 January 2018
Thames seawall over topped
The 100 year storm
will be an annual
event with 40cm of
sea-level rise
3.2 m (1% AEP)
Groundwater inundation + surface flooding Storm surge
Marine inundationCoastal erosion
IS3: Improved understanding of the impacts & risks of sea-level rise for NZ (including GW
inundation and saline intrusion)
Saline intrusion
Impacts from sea-level rise
Risk exposure of
+ 1.5m sea-level
rise around New
Zealand
RCP 8.5
+3℃
RCP 2.6
+1℃
Mean annual temperature increases by 2100
RCP 8.5
50-60 more hot days
above 25℃
300% increase
RCP 2.6
10-15 more hot days
above 25℃
40% increase
Hot days increases
RCP 8.5
10-15% less
rain in east
20% more
rain in west
RCP 2.6
5% less rain in
east
5% more rain
in west
Rainfall & drought occurrence increase
• 2°C warming…
• 40% more hot days (>25 ℃)
• 50cm sea-level rise (30cm by 2060)
• 100 year flood occurs every year
• Plus 5-10% less rain in east…
• Tripling drought occurrence - agriculture
horticulture
• 4-6 months extreme fire danger, all of
eastern NZ - forestry
Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate change consequences at 2°C
Mitigation – what is required for 1.5℃?
How are we doing globally?
• 2℃ target requires carbon zero by 2070
• 1.5℃ target requires carbon zero by 2050
• At current rates we will be 2℃ on 25 years
How is New Zealand doing?
• Currently 7.5 tonnes CO2 per capita
• Based on trend….we are not on track for 1.5℃ or even 2℃!
Source: A Reisinger, unpublishedSource: A Reisinger, unpublished
?

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TCFD Workshop: Practical steps for implementation – Tim Naish

  • 1. The things every company needs to know: physical, economic, and operational implications of climate change TCFD workshops: Practical steps for implementation 16 October 2019—17 October 2019 Tim Naish
  • 2. 30 years 230 years Today’s CO2 is 410ppm Highest for 3 million years Atmospheric carbon dioxide continues to increase
  • 3. 2019 on track to be warmest year on record = +1.2 ℃ Global temperature continues to increase 1℃ of warming of Earth’s surface
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  • 9. Kaiaua Thames-Coromandel highway Firth of Thames coastal flood, 5 January 2018 Thames seawall over topped The 100 year storm will be an annual event with 40cm of sea-level rise 3.2 m (1% AEP)
  • 10. Groundwater inundation + surface flooding Storm surge Marine inundationCoastal erosion IS3: Improved understanding of the impacts & risks of sea-level rise for NZ (including GW inundation and saline intrusion) Saline intrusion Impacts from sea-level rise
  • 11. Risk exposure of + 1.5m sea-level rise around New Zealand
  • 12. RCP 8.5 +3℃ RCP 2.6 +1℃ Mean annual temperature increases by 2100
  • 13. RCP 8.5 50-60 more hot days above 25℃ 300% increase RCP 2.6 10-15 more hot days above 25℃ 40% increase Hot days increases
  • 14. RCP 8.5 10-15% less rain in east 20% more rain in west RCP 2.6 5% less rain in east 5% more rain in west Rainfall & drought occurrence increase
  • 15. • 2°C warming… • 40% more hot days (>25 ℃) • 50cm sea-level rise (30cm by 2060) • 100 year flood occurs every year • Plus 5-10% less rain in east… • Tripling drought occurrence - agriculture horticulture • 4-6 months extreme fire danger, all of eastern NZ - forestry Aotearoa New Zealand’s climate change consequences at 2°C
  • 16. Mitigation – what is required for 1.5℃?
  • 17. How are we doing globally? • 2℃ target requires carbon zero by 2070 • 1.5℃ target requires carbon zero by 2050 • At current rates we will be 2℃ on 25 years
  • 18. How is New Zealand doing? • Currently 7.5 tonnes CO2 per capita • Based on trend….we are not on track for 1.5℃ or even 2℃! Source: A Reisinger, unpublishedSource: A Reisinger, unpublished ?