This document provides an overview of how futurists think compared to strategists. It discusses that futurists focus on possible futures by looking for weak signals and patterns, while strategists focus on a preferred future. It also notes that futurists consider a wide range of data, even data they have low confidence in, to develop foresight, while strategists focus on known information. The document recommends separating foresight and strategy tasks but also thinking like a futurist before acting like a strategist.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
Design Thinking and Public Sector Innovation Ben Weinlick
Ben Weinlick of Think Jar Collective gave a keynote for the Canada Conference Board Public Sector Innovation conference on how human centered design thinking can be a game changer for service and system innovation in the public and social sectors.
Our Morgenbooster: Designing for Possible Futures.
Get a sneak-peak into how to apply futures thinking to your design processes to help create reactive and proactive brands, businesses, and products.
Design Thinking and Public Sector Innovation Ben Weinlick
Ben Weinlick of Think Jar Collective gave a keynote for the Canada Conference Board Public Sector Innovation conference on how human centered design thinking can be a game changer for service and system innovation in the public and social sectors.
Align, Inform, Inspire: Measuring Business Agility and SAFe® with Flow MetricsTasktop
During this on-demand webinar, Scaled Agile Principal Consultant and Framework team member, Andrew Sales, and Tasktop Sr. Value Stream Architect, Lee Reid, discuss how the three measurement domains of SAFe—Outcomes, Flow, and Competency—provide a comprehensive, yet simple, model for measuring business agility at every level of the enterprise and view data from an actual product value stream to demonstrate how Flow Metrics can enable productive conversations with the business about prioritizing work, while still maintaining the taxonomy of SAFe for teams to implement and improve.
A summary of the basic principles of design thinking, human centered innovation and its application to strategy. Created by Natalie Nixon of Figure 8 Thinking.
Entrepreneurship by Design: The entrepreneur, the designer and the ideal star...Julien Kerlidou
ABSTRACT: 21st century is marked by a fast-changing world qualified as ‘VUCA’ (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) facing exceptional mutations (digital revolution, environmental concern, multiplication of crises, emergence of new ways to work, produce, consume, collaborate...).
In this new paradigm, companies and societies have the injunction to innovate to find new models. If large companies - which dominated the 20th century – lack of agility and experiment trouble to manage change, two new figures emerged as potential heroes of this 'new economy': the entrepreneur and the designer.
But, surprisingly, no link is ever made between these two fields.
This thesis will explore research on entrepreneurship (part 1) and design (part 2) to determine potential similarities, complementarities and specificities of these two emerging figures (part 3). It will notably suggest opportunity, innovation and value creation as the common ground, explore the role the designer can play in a startup. It will finally propose a model for the ideal startup (Entrepreneurship by Design) and underline the need for new hybrid profiles. These proposals will be illustrated through the author's own hybrid experience between Entrepreneurship and Design in a startup.
Do not hesitate to share this work, comment it, reuse it and cite it! "Kerlidou, J. (2018). Entrepreneurship by Design: The entrepreneur, the designer and the ideal startup." (MBA Management by Design master thesis directed by Brigitte Borja de Mozota, Strate Ecole de Design, PSB Paris School of Business).
Systemic Design Toolkit - Systems Innovation BarcelonaPeter Jones
The Systemic Design Toolkit represents a formalized set of methods and research tools designed by Namahn and developed with collaboration by me (SDA) and Alex Ryan of MaRS. The Toolkit can be discovered at https://www.systemicdesigntoolkit.org/
Centre for Entrepreneurship (C4E) of the University of Cyprus and Berklee Institute for Creative Entrepreneurship (ICE) present the:
Why are some designs better than others, and what can you do about it? (The workshop)
If you've ever described a poster as heavy, a website as dense, an app as clumsy or an object as whimsical, you probably already know the answer. Recent psychology research is showing that experiential metaphors are key emotional drivers that impact our perception of the world. Applying these findings to design confirms what designers have learned throughout their careers—good design is subconscious first and rational second. Michael will share stories from this research and the IDEO portfolio then share tools to help you be more consciously subconscious.
The first prototype of our approaches to move beyond design thinking at DNA. Touching on a number of new tools and techniques as well as theoretical positions from a number of sources. Very much the bleeding edge of our current position.
This is a short talk and workshop (30' + 90') to give a first introduction to design thinking. Gives theory foundation, notes a few different approaches, and then dives into one of them.
This presentation was first done at ImpactON / StartupChile evening in 2015.
Introduction for Design thinking :
What is Design thinking?
Why to use Design thinking?
What is Design thinking mindset?
Balance for Analytical and Intuitive thinking.
Traditional thinking vs Design thinking.
Combination of Divergent and Convergent thinking.
How can creative and concerned citizens tell more effective stories about the future? Make them different, deep, and diverse.
This talk by design futurist Stuart Candy from Carnegie Mellon University was given in April 2020 during the covid-19 pandemic to help launch the online collaborative storytelling experiment #FromTheFutures, hosted by Lance Weiler and the Digital Storytelling Lab at Columbia University.
This is the updated version of my successful Interaction 14 talk: http://www.slideshare.net/folletto/the-shift-ux-designers-as-business-consultants
UX is a broad field and designers are increasingly playing a strategic role in many companies. Be that designer.
Businesses are increasingly adopting user-centered approaches to create experiences, moving UX design to be one of the core activities driving the company strategy and operations.
This is an incredibly valuable opportunity that we designers can take to step up and contribute to create the great experiences and services they envision, taking our vision, tools and understanding to a different level. But we need to learn the new skills to play at this table, a table that's often speaking a different language with a lot of politics and different stakeholders.
A fast-forward tour about Design Thinking by webkeyz.
How design thinking differs from scientific thinking? Why to use it? When to use it? And how design thinking can impact your life?
Future of Universities: an example of scenario building using the "Harman Fan"Wendy Schultz
NOTE: TO VIEW PROPERLY (the fan is interactive: triangles are hotlinked), DOWNLOAD AND VIEW IN 'PLAY' MODE. A slidedeck illustrating the Harman fan approach (divergence mapping) for creating scenarios; a product of the graduate seminar in futures research methods at the University of Houston's Masters program in Futures Studies.
Design Thinking explained with project experiences.
- What is Design Thinking
- What are the steps
- What is SAP Apphaus
- The Next View Design Experience Center Amsterdam
Foresight tools help us brainstorm ideas about the future so we are better prepared for the opportunities and challenges that may arise. It provides the ability to forward engage, interacting early before issues become difficult to manage.
This booklet – the first of three in the series – outlines 20 foresight tools to throw into the mix, while you walk forward into the future.
Align, Inform, Inspire: Measuring Business Agility and SAFe® with Flow MetricsTasktop
During this on-demand webinar, Scaled Agile Principal Consultant and Framework team member, Andrew Sales, and Tasktop Sr. Value Stream Architect, Lee Reid, discuss how the three measurement domains of SAFe—Outcomes, Flow, and Competency—provide a comprehensive, yet simple, model for measuring business agility at every level of the enterprise and view data from an actual product value stream to demonstrate how Flow Metrics can enable productive conversations with the business about prioritizing work, while still maintaining the taxonomy of SAFe for teams to implement and improve.
A summary of the basic principles of design thinking, human centered innovation and its application to strategy. Created by Natalie Nixon of Figure 8 Thinking.
Entrepreneurship by Design: The entrepreneur, the designer and the ideal star...Julien Kerlidou
ABSTRACT: 21st century is marked by a fast-changing world qualified as ‘VUCA’ (volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous) facing exceptional mutations (digital revolution, environmental concern, multiplication of crises, emergence of new ways to work, produce, consume, collaborate...).
In this new paradigm, companies and societies have the injunction to innovate to find new models. If large companies - which dominated the 20th century – lack of agility and experiment trouble to manage change, two new figures emerged as potential heroes of this 'new economy': the entrepreneur and the designer.
But, surprisingly, no link is ever made between these two fields.
This thesis will explore research on entrepreneurship (part 1) and design (part 2) to determine potential similarities, complementarities and specificities of these two emerging figures (part 3). It will notably suggest opportunity, innovation and value creation as the common ground, explore the role the designer can play in a startup. It will finally propose a model for the ideal startup (Entrepreneurship by Design) and underline the need for new hybrid profiles. These proposals will be illustrated through the author's own hybrid experience between Entrepreneurship and Design in a startup.
Do not hesitate to share this work, comment it, reuse it and cite it! "Kerlidou, J. (2018). Entrepreneurship by Design: The entrepreneur, the designer and the ideal startup." (MBA Management by Design master thesis directed by Brigitte Borja de Mozota, Strate Ecole de Design, PSB Paris School of Business).
Systemic Design Toolkit - Systems Innovation BarcelonaPeter Jones
The Systemic Design Toolkit represents a formalized set of methods and research tools designed by Namahn and developed with collaboration by me (SDA) and Alex Ryan of MaRS. The Toolkit can be discovered at https://www.systemicdesigntoolkit.org/
Centre for Entrepreneurship (C4E) of the University of Cyprus and Berklee Institute for Creative Entrepreneurship (ICE) present the:
Why are some designs better than others, and what can you do about it? (The workshop)
If you've ever described a poster as heavy, a website as dense, an app as clumsy or an object as whimsical, you probably already know the answer. Recent psychology research is showing that experiential metaphors are key emotional drivers that impact our perception of the world. Applying these findings to design confirms what designers have learned throughout their careers—good design is subconscious first and rational second. Michael will share stories from this research and the IDEO portfolio then share tools to help you be more consciously subconscious.
The first prototype of our approaches to move beyond design thinking at DNA. Touching on a number of new tools and techniques as well as theoretical positions from a number of sources. Very much the bleeding edge of our current position.
This is a short talk and workshop (30' + 90') to give a first introduction to design thinking. Gives theory foundation, notes a few different approaches, and then dives into one of them.
This presentation was first done at ImpactON / StartupChile evening in 2015.
Introduction for Design thinking :
What is Design thinking?
Why to use Design thinking?
What is Design thinking mindset?
Balance for Analytical and Intuitive thinking.
Traditional thinking vs Design thinking.
Combination of Divergent and Convergent thinking.
How can creative and concerned citizens tell more effective stories about the future? Make them different, deep, and diverse.
This talk by design futurist Stuart Candy from Carnegie Mellon University was given in April 2020 during the covid-19 pandemic to help launch the online collaborative storytelling experiment #FromTheFutures, hosted by Lance Weiler and the Digital Storytelling Lab at Columbia University.
This is the updated version of my successful Interaction 14 talk: http://www.slideshare.net/folletto/the-shift-ux-designers-as-business-consultants
UX is a broad field and designers are increasingly playing a strategic role in many companies. Be that designer.
Businesses are increasingly adopting user-centered approaches to create experiences, moving UX design to be one of the core activities driving the company strategy and operations.
This is an incredibly valuable opportunity that we designers can take to step up and contribute to create the great experiences and services they envision, taking our vision, tools and understanding to a different level. But we need to learn the new skills to play at this table, a table that's often speaking a different language with a lot of politics and different stakeholders.
A fast-forward tour about Design Thinking by webkeyz.
How design thinking differs from scientific thinking? Why to use it? When to use it? And how design thinking can impact your life?
Future of Universities: an example of scenario building using the "Harman Fan"Wendy Schultz
NOTE: TO VIEW PROPERLY (the fan is interactive: triangles are hotlinked), DOWNLOAD AND VIEW IN 'PLAY' MODE. A slidedeck illustrating the Harman fan approach (divergence mapping) for creating scenarios; a product of the graduate seminar in futures research methods at the University of Houston's Masters program in Futures Studies.
Design Thinking explained with project experiences.
- What is Design Thinking
- What are the steps
- What is SAP Apphaus
- The Next View Design Experience Center Amsterdam
Foresight tools help us brainstorm ideas about the future so we are better prepared for the opportunities and challenges that may arise. It provides the ability to forward engage, interacting early before issues become difficult to manage.
This booklet – the first of three in the series – outlines 20 foresight tools to throw into the mix, while you walk forward into the future.
An overview of key activities in a complete futures / foresight study, with a 'shopper's guide' to relevant tools and methods to suit each activity. Use it to compose an integrated futures research project, soup to nuts.
Some postdoctoral fellowships work out well, and some do not. This talk reviews strategies for tailoring a successful post-doc experience that aligns with your career goals. The talk also gives some general career advice, and compares the pros and cons of different career paths.
THINKING ABOUT THINKING
Audience: PM & BA
Level: All
Date: May 26
Time: 11:30 AM - 12:30 PM
Description
Thinking is a big part of a Project Manager’s and Business Analyst's job. But how often have you spent time thinking about thinking? This presentation looks at thinking as a critical soft skill for project managers and how a disciplined approach to thinking improves you effectiveness as a change agent for the company in the role of project manager. The presentation will discuss the Thinking Hats, Five Types of Thinking, and brush into the entire world of Business Analytics. The presentation focuses on how the skills of Strategic Analysis, Tactical Analysis, Predictive Analysis, Data mining work together for the complete business management cycle. To add to the thinking equation, the session will explore the power of Social Media sentiment and how the way people "feel" about things is an important factor in the business equation. Think about it !!!!
1. Participants will understand the relationship between planning, analysis, problem solving, decision making and thinking.
2. Students will be able to explain an "Adapting to Whats Happening Model" that includes Data Recording, Strategic Analysis, Tactical Analysis, Predictive Analysis, and Social Media Sentiment. And how it impacts the business.
3. Students will explore various factors of human bias and how that impacts thinking. The student will understand that bias cannot not be completely eliminated, but should be embraced as a human factor in any thinking exercise. The student will understand that personal perspective/bias is a factor, but not THE factor in thinking.
Practical Opinion Mining for Social MediaDiana Maynard
This tutorial will introduce the concepts of sentiment analysis and opinion mining from unstructured text in social media, looking at why they are useful and what tools and techniques are available. It will cover both rule-based and machine learning techniques, provide some background information on the key underlying NLP processes required, and look in detail at some of the major problems and solutions, such as detection of sarcasm, use of informal language, spam opinion detection, trustworthiness of opinion holders, and so on. The techniques will be demonstrated with real applications developed in GATE, an open-source language processing toolkit. Links are provided to some hands-on material to try at home.
I3 Foundry illustrated - by imagineering indiaSatya Chari
I3 Foundry - Ideate, Innovate, Improvise
- a framework to seed entrepreneurship, to foster enterprises
When maxims max out and the road ahead looks dreary - what next?
Let us start by revisiting few of the timeless wisdom first, shall we?
Good ultimately prevails and Sun continues to shine… for a long time to come…
So, believe in the goodness of self, fellowship, colleagues and peers, communities and nations, world at large and ultimately the nature with it’s innate abundance and yet, unraveling creative-destruction…
Against persistent nay-say, menacing anxiety, sinking despair, brooding isolation, believe in the virtue of hope, promise of possibilities, power of creative-construct; a life without fear, awareness and purpose…
Live a life in the know of incredible possibilities evinced from the past, be industrious today and confidently embrace the future…
Live a life of delight anchored in trusteeship, camaraderie and generosity; a life of wholesomeness anchored in love, protected by truth; a finite life of infinite joy
Presentation on the trials, tribulations and successes in delivering (and using) relevant scientific research given at the International Association of Hydrogeologists (IAH) conference 2016 by Bob Harris, Visiting Professor of Catchment Science at the University of Sheffield
Scenarios are used to explore alternative futures. This presentation provides definitions and types of scenarios (i.e. single, multiple, archetype scenarios), describes the scenario planning process, and gives examples of selected scenarios.
Read| The latest issue of The Challenger is here! We are thrilled to announce that our school paper has qualified for the NATIONAL SCHOOLS PRESS CONFERENCE (NSPC) 2024. Thank you for your unwavering support and trust. Dive into the stories that made us stand out!
Acetabularia Information For Class 9 .docxvaibhavrinwa19
Acetabularia acetabulum is a single-celled green alga that in its vegetative state is morphologically differentiated into a basal rhizoid and an axially elongated stalk, which bears whorls of branching hairs. The single diploid nucleus resides in the rhizoid.
Macroeconomics- Movie Location
This will be used as part of your Personal Professional Portfolio once graded.
Objective:
Prepare a presentation or a paper using research, basic comparative analysis, data organization and application of economic information. You will make an informed assessment of an economic climate outside of the United States to accomplish an entertainment industry objective.
How to Make a Field invisible in Odoo 17Celine George
It is possible to hide or invisible some fields in odoo. Commonly using “invisible” attribute in the field definition to invisible the fields. This slide will show how to make a field invisible in odoo 17.
Synthetic Fiber Construction in lab .pptxPavel ( NSTU)
Synthetic fiber production is a fascinating and complex field that blends chemistry, engineering, and environmental science. By understanding these aspects, students can gain a comprehensive view of synthetic fiber production, its impact on society and the environment, and the potential for future innovations. Synthetic fibers play a crucial role in modern society, impacting various aspects of daily life, industry, and the environment. ynthetic fibers are integral to modern life, offering a range of benefits from cost-effectiveness and versatility to innovative applications and performance characteristics. While they pose environmental challenges, ongoing research and development aim to create more sustainable and eco-friendly alternatives. Understanding the importance of synthetic fibers helps in appreciating their role in the economy, industry, and daily life, while also emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and innovation.
June 3, 2024 Anti-Semitism Letter Sent to MIT President Kornbluth and MIT Cor...Levi Shapiro
Letter from the Congress of the United States regarding Anti-Semitism sent June 3rd to MIT President Sally Kornbluth, MIT Corp Chair, Mark Gorenberg
Dear Dr. Kornbluth and Mr. Gorenberg,
The US House of Representatives is deeply concerned by ongoing and pervasive acts of antisemitic
harassment and intimidation at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Failing to act decisively to ensure a safe learning environment for all students would be a grave dereliction of your responsibilities as President of MIT and Chair of the MIT Corporation.
This Congress will not stand idly by and allow an environment hostile to Jewish students to persist. The House believes that your institution is in violation of Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, and the inability or
unwillingness to rectify this violation through action requires accountability.
Postsecondary education is a unique opportunity for students to learn and have their ideas and beliefs challenged. However, universities receiving hundreds of millions of federal funds annually have denied
students that opportunity and have been hijacked to become venues for the promotion of terrorism, antisemitic harassment and intimidation, unlawful encampments, and in some cases, assaults and riots.
The House of Representatives will not countenance the use of federal funds to indoctrinate students into hateful, antisemitic, anti-American supporters of terrorism. Investigations into campus antisemitism by the Committee on Education and the Workforce and the Committee on Ways and Means have been expanded into a Congress-wide probe across all relevant jurisdictions to address this national crisis. The undersigned Committees will conduct oversight into the use of federal funds at MIT and its learning environment under authorities granted to each Committee.
• The Committee on Education and the Workforce has been investigating your institution since December 7, 2023. The Committee has broad jurisdiction over postsecondary education, including its compliance with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act, campus safety concerns over disruptions to the learning environment, and the awarding of federal student aid under the Higher Education Act.
• The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is investigating the sources of funding and other support flowing to groups espousing pro-Hamas propaganda and engaged in antisemitic harassment and intimidation of students. The Committee on Oversight and Accountability is the principal oversight committee of the US House of Representatives and has broad authority to investigate “any matter” at “any time” under House Rule X.
• The Committee on Ways and Means has been investigating several universities since November 15, 2023, when the Committee held a hearing entitled From Ivory Towers to Dark Corners: Investigating the Nexus Between Antisemitism, Tax-Exempt Universities, and Terror Financing. The Committee followed the hearing with letters to those institutions on January 10, 202
Operation “Blue Star” is the only event in the history of Independent India where the state went into war with its own people. Even after about 40 years it is not clear if it was culmination of states anger over people of the region, a political game of power or start of dictatorial chapter in the democratic setup.
The people of Punjab felt alienated from main stream due to denial of their just demands during a long democratic struggle since independence. As it happen all over the word, it led to militant struggle with great loss of lives of military, police and civilian personnel. Killing of Indira Gandhi and massacre of innocent Sikhs in Delhi and other India cities was also associated with this movement.
2024.06.01 Introducing a competency framework for languag learning materials ...Sandy Millin
http://sandymillin.wordpress.com/iateflwebinar2024
Published classroom materials form the basis of syllabuses, drive teacher professional development, and have a potentially huge influence on learners, teachers and education systems. All teachers also create their own materials, whether a few sentences on a blackboard, a highly-structured fully-realised online course, or anything in between. Despite this, the knowledge and skills needed to create effective language learning materials are rarely part of teacher training, and are mostly learnt by trial and error.
Knowledge and skills frameworks, generally called competency frameworks, for ELT teachers, trainers and managers have existed for a few years now. However, until I created one for my MA dissertation, there wasn’t one drawing together what we need to know and do to be able to effectively produce language learning materials.
This webinar will introduce you to my framework, highlighting the key competencies I identified from my research. It will also show how anybody involved in language teaching (any language, not just English!), teacher training, managing schools or developing language learning materials can benefit from using the framework.
The French Revolution, which began in 1789, was a period of radical social and political upheaval in France. It marked the decline of absolute monarchies, the rise of secular and democratic republics, and the eventual rise of Napoleon Bonaparte. This revolutionary period is crucial in understanding the transition from feudalism to modernity in Europe.
For more information, visit-www.vavaclasses.com
Unit 8 - Information and Communication Technology (Paper I).pdfThiyagu K
This slides describes the basic concepts of ICT, basics of Email, Emerging Technology and Digital Initiatives in Education. This presentations aligns with the UGC Paper I syllabus.
The Roman Empire A Historical Colossus.pdfkaushalkr1407
The Roman Empire, a vast and enduring power, stands as one of history's most remarkable civilizations, leaving an indelible imprint on the world. It emerged from the Roman Republic, transitioning into an imperial powerhouse under the leadership of Augustus Caesar in 27 BCE. This transformation marked the beginning of an era defined by unprecedented territorial expansion, architectural marvels, and profound cultural influence.
The empire's roots lie in the city of Rome, founded, according to legend, by Romulus in 753 BCE. Over centuries, Rome evolved from a small settlement to a formidable republic, characterized by a complex political system with elected officials and checks on power. However, internal strife, class conflicts, and military ambitions paved the way for the end of the Republic. Julius Caesar’s dictatorship and subsequent assassination in 44 BCE created a power vacuum, leading to a civil war. Octavian, later Augustus, emerged victorious, heralding the Roman Empire’s birth.
Under Augustus, the empire experienced the Pax Romana, a 200-year period of relative peace and stability. Augustus reformed the military, established efficient administrative systems, and initiated grand construction projects. The empire's borders expanded, encompassing territories from Britain to Egypt and from Spain to the Euphrates. Roman legions, renowned for their discipline and engineering prowess, secured and maintained these vast territories, building roads, fortifications, and cities that facilitated control and integration.
The Roman Empire’s society was hierarchical, with a rigid class system. At the top were the patricians, wealthy elites who held significant political power. Below them were the plebeians, free citizens with limited political influence, and the vast numbers of slaves who formed the backbone of the economy. The family unit was central, governed by the paterfamilias, the male head who held absolute authority.
Culturally, the Romans were eclectic, absorbing and adapting elements from the civilizations they encountered, particularly the Greeks. Roman art, literature, and philosophy reflected this synthesis, creating a rich cultural tapestry. Latin, the Roman language, became the lingua franca of the Western world, influencing numerous modern languages.
Roman architecture and engineering achievements were monumental. They perfected the arch, vault, and dome, constructing enduring structures like the Colosseum, Pantheon, and aqueducts. These engineering marvels not only showcased Roman ingenuity but also served practical purposes, from public entertainment to water supply.
Palestine last event orientationfvgnh .pptxRaedMohamed3
An EFL lesson about the current events in Palestine. It is intended to be for intermediate students who wish to increase their listening skills through a short lesson in power point.
Introduction to AI for Nonprofits with Tapp NetworkTechSoup
Dive into the world of AI! Experts Jon Hill and Tareq Monaur will guide you through AI's role in enhancing nonprofit websites and basic marketing strategies, making it easy to understand and apply.
3. Three sights
Hindsight, Insight and Foresight
• The Cone of Plausibility does not always include a backward cone, but we have added this to
reflect our history
• Futurists use hindsight and insight to develop foresight (history does not repeat, but does rhyme)
• Strategists focus on how to get to a preferred future (e.g. backcasting from a preferred future) 3
4. Noise
Volume and pitch
• We have a very noisy world
• Futurists tend to look for where there is silence (e.g. what is bubbling under the surface)
• Strategists tend to focus on the noise
4
5. Patterns
Look for the new
• Patterns exist and often change over time. Look for the new – the emerging trend, the new
idea, a change in pace, a wild card
• Futurists tend to ask lots of questions on the long-term future (e.g. what might happen)
• Strategists tend to focus on the present (e.g. how can we move the dial) 5
6. Three inputs
Data, information and knowledge
• Data on mass - creates information; information that is considered - creates knowledge
• Not all data is created equal (e.g. what is your level of confidence - very low, low, high, very high)
• Futurists also consider data they have low confidence in (they seek the unknown)
• Strategists focus on what they know (they build on the known) and ignore where data is poor quality
6
7. • Risk should be analysed by probability/likelihood (often as a percentage), magnitude/impact (e.g.
very serious, serious, material or minor), by time (e.g. 0-5 years, 5-10 years, 10-20 years, 20 plus
years) and sometimes by velocity (the speed at which risks could impact, e.g. very rapid, rapid, low)
• Futurists and strategists seek to understand risk, but one tends to be macro and the other micro
Excerpts from Scottish Water 2021/22, Annual Report (pp. 98-99)
Risk
Not all risks are created equal
7
8. • Some futurists stop at the scanning stage to reduce biases. They focus on finding patterns/weak
signals/wild cards to share/sell to those further along the continuum
• Futurists tend to stop at visioning
• Strategists tend to start at visioning
Assumptions
From foresight to strategy
Frame the
problem
or opportunity Scanning
Strategy
(then planning)
Strategic options
Vision
Foresight tools:
Timelines
System mapping
Megatrends
Scenarios
Assumptions/biases tend to increase along the continuum (in terms of quantity and significance)
8
9. • Futurists use scenario analysis to explore situations where there is more than one change happening
at the same time. They are interested in how combinations of events might shape the future
• Strategists engage futurists to test their strategy/ies (e.g. against low probability, high magnitude
events) not just how events might play out but how the order might result in a different impact
Sensitivity analysis Scenario analysis
Analysis
Dealing with complexity
9
10. ForesightNZ playing cards
• The future is like a game of cards. This led to the ForesightNZ playing cards (an output of
the 2016 ForesightNZ workshop of 18–25-year-olds)
• Importantly, it is not just the events, but the order the cards are played, that should also be
explored and understood 10
11. Scenario analysis
Four quadrant model
• Things to watch for (from the 2008 four quadrant
scenario analysis on the left) include:
• a fortress mentality versus a desire to work
with others, both between individuals and
between countries
• disparities in wealth, health, education and
technology adoption within societies and
between countries
• the type of leadership style, in particular
whether it is proactive and forward thinking
or complacent and reactive
• the extent to which privacy and secrets are
accepted norms in government, or whether
transparency and public accountability are
the more common ethic.
Excerpt from McGuiness Institute, Report 6: Four Possible Futures for New Zealand in 2058, 2008 (p. 3)
11
• The four quadrant model is the go-to model. However, many other models exist, such as the
three scenario analysis model (e.g. worst-case, best-case and probable-case scenarios)
• Make the most of a scenario by trying to write a list of lessons learned or signals to indicate a
move towards a particular scenario (see text above right)
12. Previous slide expanded
Excerpt from McGuiness Institute, Report
6: Four Possible Futures for New Zealand
in 2058, 2008 (p. 4)
12
• Each scenario can be thought of as a dark room you enter with a torch – then when you leave
the scenario/room you close the door, ready to enter another scenario/room
• Scenarios are often given a name to describe/summarise them for ease of discussion
• Be very careful that the scenario is only used for its purpose (i.e. it is not a prediction)
13. 13
• Public policy tools and skills are built to cater for the normal; however, the fatter the tail
gets, the more responsive and creative public policy mechanisms need to be
• Futurists are not easily held accountable – success cannot easily be measured
• Strategists are always held accountable – success can be measured
The fat tail
The policy gap
14. 14
Thinking like a futurist looks and feels like: Acting like a strategist looks and feels like:
Hard work
Play
• As a rule, it is good to separate the task of foresight from the task of strategy. However, that is not
always practical. In which case, take the time to think like a futurist before acting like a strategist
• Strategy without foresight will lead to poor decision making, especially in times of uncertainty
• Always respect those that are good at strategy, it is hard work!
Look and feel
The reality is the world needs both futurists and strategists