The document discusses business trends in northwest Illinois. It summarizes that the region has experienced population aging and a shift away from agriculture and manufacturing to services. While the last recession ended in 2009, employment has not returned to pre-2008 levels and continues to decline. The region has lower GDP per capita than Illinois as a whole due to its rural nature. Manufacturing contributes more to GDP than other sectors but employs fewer people. Opportunities for future growth include proximity to urban areas, workforce training to replace retiring workers, and leveraging growth in surrounding regions.

1. Iowa
Grant
Rock
Green
Lafayette
Dubuque
Delaware
JoDaviess
Stephenson
Winnebago
Boone
Business Trends in Northwest Illinois
Jackson
Jones
Carroll
Ogle
Clinton
Lee
Whiteside
Norman Walzer and Brian Harger
Cedar
Scott
Presented to
Rock IslandT‐CEDA Board Meeting
Henry
Thomson City Hall
December 19, 2013
Bureau

2. Background
•
•
•
•
The TCEDA region has had nearly four decades of demographic and
economic transformation characterized by a stable but aging population
and a shift away from agriculture and manufacturing as the primary
sources of job and income opportunities and growth of the services sector.
The last recession officially ended in June 2009 but, employment in the
TCEDA region has not returned to pre‐2008 levels and continues to
decline.
This presentation shows recent trends in economy of the TCEDA region
(Carroll, JoDaviess and part of Whiteside counties).
It also examines opportunities for future growth and what could be done
to take advantage of them.
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3. Population Trends
TCEDA Region*
Percent Change by Age Group
TCEDA Region*
20%
16.7%
2000-2013
2013-2020
10%
Percent Change
6.5%
4.2%
1.3%
1.0%
0%
-1.2%
-0.9%
-1.0%
-2.0%
-4.3%
-4.6%
-3.1%
-7.3%
-10%
-15.2%
-20%
Under 18 Years
18 to 24 Years
25 to 34 Years
35 to 44 Years
45 to 54 Years
55 to 64 Years
65 Years & Over
*The TCEDA Region consists of Carroll, JoDaviess and Whiteside counties in Illinois.
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
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4. Economic Trends
Per Capita Gross Domestic Product
Per Capita GDP (1970-2020)
TCEDA Region*
$55,000
TCEDA Region
Per capita GDP and the rate of growth
are average for non‐metro counties in
Illinois.
In the past four decades increasing
urbanization resulted in a widening
disparity in economic growth between
cities, suburbs and rural areas.
$50,000
PerCapita GDP Constant (2005) Dollars
Being mostly rural, the TCEDA region
has a lower GDP than Illinois as a
whole.
$50,320
Non-Metro Counties
State of Illinois
$45,000
$40,000
$35,000
$30,397
$30,000
$29,855
$25,000
$23,874
$20,000
$15,000
$18,640
$16,992
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2013
2020
*The TCEDA Region consists of Carroll, JoDaviess and Whiteside counties in Illinois.
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
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5. Economic Composition
Gross Domestic Product by Industry, 2011
Gross Regional Product by Industry, 2011
TCEDA Region
Manufacturing is about 12% of
employment in the region but
generates 21% of Regional GDP.
The Finance, Insurance and Real Estate
sector is a major contributor, but
represents only 7% of employment in
the TCEDA Region.
Although Agriculture represents only
7.5% GDP, it supports other sectors
such as manufacturing (farm
machinery, food processing), wholesale
trade and transportation.
Public
Administration
10.4%
Agriculture
Mining
& Related
7.5%
Construction
4.2%
Education
Healthcare
& Social Services
5.8%
Other Services
7.5%
Professional
Scientific
& Technical
Services
4.4%
Total Regional GDP
$3.24 Billion
Finance,
Insurance &
Real Estate
19.3%
Manufacturing
21.0%
Wholesale &
Retail Trade
13.0%
Transportation
Information, &
Utilities
6.9%
Source: IMPLAN, 2011.
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6. Business Vitality
Northwest Illinois
New Business Starts
TCEDA Region*
10,000
Total Establishments
The surge in new business starts in 2010
and the drop in the following years
reflects a national trend.
7,594
8,086
291
Number of Establishments
7,764
7,495
7,946
7,433
7,162
6,465
365
6,551
6,399
642
6,419
6,161
6,000
4,000
2,000
399
277
1,314
570
525
698
435
857
470
371
Nevertheless, business starts as a
proportion of total business firms in the
TCEDA region have lagged behind state
and national averages.
8,000
6,172
Not clear is whether this was caused by
an upturn in business activity following
the end of the recession or was in
response to some anticipated change in
tax or regulatory policies.
New Startups Establishments
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
*The TCEDA Region includes Carroll, JoDaviess and Whiteside counties in Illinois.
Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
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7. Comparison of Business Starts
2004‐2007
Business Starts
Business Start Rate
(% 2004 Firms)
Business Starts per
1,000 Population
177
3.5%
.45
Illinois Non‐metro Counties
2,947
4.0
1.74
Iowa Non‐metro Counties
3,783
4.6
2.81
Wisconsin Non‐metro Counties
1,605
6.1
3.12
Area Name
Carroll, Jo Daviess, and Whiteside Counties
Source: The Brandow Company, BizMiner, 2010.
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8. Employment Trends
Northwest Illinois
Top Figure:
2012 Unemployment Rate
6.2%
Iowa
1.6%
Lower unemployment
rates in the past 3
years mainly reflect
declining labor force
participation rates.
Non‐farm
employment has
continued to fall in
most of the region
since the end of the
recession.
5.8%
Grant
0.7%
4.4%
Delaware
2.9%
4.5%
Cedar
1.7%
7.8%
JoDaviess
7.2%
5.7%
Jackson
2.5%
6.1%
Clinton
6.1%
6.4%
Scott
2.1%
7.8%
Rock Island
1.3%
8.4%
Rock
1.7%
6.4%
Green
2.3%
5.6%
Lafayette
1.6%
4.8%
Dubuque
4.0%
5.7%
Jones
2.4%
Bottom Figure:
Percent Change in
Non-Farm Employment
July, 2009 – August, 2013
9.4%
Stephenson
9.4%
8.9%
Carroll
7.5%
11.4%
11.6%
Winnebago Boone
0.1%
2.5%
10.8%
Ogle
9.2%
LEGEND
7.4%
Henry
0.2%
9.5%
Bureau
5.7%
=
8.9%
0.7%
Iowa
=
5.2%
0.6%
Wisconsin =
9.3%
Lee
8.2%
9.3%
Whiteside
7.2%
Illinois
6.9%
0.4%
U.S.
8.1%
2.9%
=
Source: U.S. Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
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9. Employment Trends
Employment by Industry
Manufacturing, a major contributor to
GDP, has continued to decline as a major
employer.
Employment by Major Industry Sector TCEDA
Region
40.0%
Manufacturing
Services
33.2%
Services
Local factors, such as business costs,
aging infrastructure, and labor supply
also play a role.
Service sector jobs have replaced many
jobs lost in manufacturing, but pay less.
35.0%
Percent of Total Employment
This decline reflects global competition,
corporate mergers and acquisitions, and
labor saving technologies (e.g. robotics).
Government
30.0%
25.0%
Manufacturing
10.9%
20.0%
Government
13.7%
15.0%
10.0%
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2013
2020
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
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10. Income Trends, 2013
Earning by Industry (in constant dollars)
Earnings per Employee by Industry Sector
TCEDA Region
$70,000
Manufacturing
Manufacturing jobs have higher
employee compensation than other
sectors.
Although the service sector employs
more people, earnings per job are 29%
below the regional average and the rate
of earnings growth has been relatively
weak.
Manufacturing
$61,401
Government
$60,000
Earnings per Employee
Despite a steep decline in employment,
earnings per job in manufacturing are
still more than 1.5 times the regional
average for all sectors.
Services
$50,000
Government
$52,738
$40,000
Services
$25,786
$30,000
$20,000
$10,000
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2013
2020
Source: Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2013.
Note: Figures are in constant (2005) dollars.
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11. Opportunities for Growth
TCEDA Region
•
Proximity to urban growth centers (e.g. Dubuque, Quad‐Cities & Chicago)
•
Former Savanna Army Depot with additional investments in infrastructure
•
Federal prison facility in Thomson offers business opportunities for
suppliers and increased housing and retail markets
•
“Re‐shoring” of manufacturing activities offers job creation potential
•
Local food movement increases markets for agri‐business firms
•
Proximity to Iowa and Wisconsin provides access to other markets
•
Looming demand for workers to replace retiring “Baby Boomers” will be
the primary source of job openings in the next decade
•
Higher level of training and skills will be required to work with complex
technologies (robotics, 3D printing and nano‐manufacturing).
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12. Where Do We Go From Here?
•
Promote and support business startups and expand 2nd stage companies.
•
Focus on more skilled and high‐paying job opportunities.
•
Expand training opportunities to replace retiring workers (“Boomers”).
•
Meet the demand for healthcare and other services for the elderly
(especially housing, travel and recreation).
•
Promote and market quality of life and regional assets.
•
Use quality jobs to attract and retain residents (especially youth).
•
Leverage growth opportunities in Tri‐State area (e.g. IT in Dubuque, farm
machinery mfg. and food processing in Clinton and Quad Cities, aerospace,
construction machinery mfg. and auto mfg. in Rockford & Peoria).
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13. For More Information, Contact
Brian Harger, M.S., EDFP
Research Associate
Center for Governmental Studies
Northern Illinois University
DeKalb, Illinois
E‐mail: bharger@niu.edu
LinkedIn: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/brian‐harger/2/a47/705
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